PBS - Mem Day - 2019

Joe Montegna and Dennis Haysbert - PBS 2019  

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GZB Termination Announcement

ANNOUNCMENT - GZB will no longer be published by the GI Forum

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March 8, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 8 MARCH 2026
 
DOMESTIC SITREP
 
CURRENT TERROR THREAT TO U.S. HOMELAND
 
As of March 2026, the U.S. remains in a heightened threat environment, though officials state there are currently no specific, imminent, and credible threats to a single location.
The Department of Homeland Security describes a complex landscape where the risk of terrorism is "high" and expected to remain so through the year.
 
Key Threat Drivers
 
• Foreign Influence & Retaliation: Tensions from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict have significantly increased the risk of retaliatory violence. Authorities have warned of potential "lone-wolf" attacks and cyberattacks following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian interests.
 
• Lone Offenders: The primary threat of mass casualty violence stems from individuals or small groups—both domestic and foreign-inspired—who radicalize online. These actors often mobilize quickly with little to no direct coordination from larger organizations.
 
• Ideological Targets: Potential targets of violence include:
Public gatherings and mass events (e.g., the upcoming 2026 World Cup).
Faith-based institutions, particularly Jewish and Israeli facilities.
Critical infrastructure and government personnel.
 
• Cyber Threats: State actors from China, Russia, and Iran continue to target U.S. networks and critical infrastructure to disrupt services or conduct espionage.
• Homeland Security
 
Domestic & Border Security Developments
 
• Immigration Concerns: Recent assessments highlight concerns over individuals on the terrorist watchlist attempting to enter the country, with reports noting an increase in such encounters.
• Transnational Crime: Federal agencies have launched intensive operations, such as Operation Allied Corridor, to disrupt cartels and transnational gangs recently designated as foreign terrorist organizations.
• Domestic Extremism: Tensions surrounding sociopolitical issues and past election cycles continue to serve as potential catalysts for violence by domestic violent extremists.
• House Committee on Homeland Security (.gov)
How to Stay Informed
 
The government uses the National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) to communicate these risks. (When there isn’t a government shutdown.)
 
• Bulletins: Provide general information about a heightened threat environment.
• Alerts: Issued when there is specific, credible information about a terrorist threat.
 
GLOBAL SITREP
 
LITHUANIA
 
Lithuania says Russia is expanding military units on NATO borders: Russia is expanding military units at the border with NATO, giving them battle experience in Ukraine, and could use them as hubs in a conflict with NATO after the war, Lithuanian intelligence said on Friday in its annual assessment of security threats. If sanctions are removed, Russia would be ready for a "wide-scale military conflict" with NATO in six ​years' time, the intelligence assessment said.
 
**NOTE:** If Russia is facing personnel shortages in its armed forces due to the conflict in Ukraine, where is the expansion of these military units coming from?
 
***GZB Analysis:
 
In 2025 and 2026, Russia has significantly expanded its recruitment of foreign troops to offset heavy losses in Ukraine and avoid a politically unpopular mass mobilization of its own citizens. While "conscription" technically applies to Russian citizens, the government is using a mix of mercenary contracts, coercion, and allied deployments to bring in foreign personnel.
 
Primary Foreign Troop Groups (2025–2026)
 
• North Korean Forces: This is the most significant foreign military deployment. As of early 2026, approximately 11,000 to 15,000 North Korean troops are stationed in Russia, primarily in the Kursk region. Estimates suggest the total deployment could reach 30,000 to sustain offensive operations.
• Central Asian Recruits: Migrants from Central Asia (e.g., Uzbekistan, Tajikistan are a major target. Many are pressured into signing contracts to avoid prison sentences or are enticed by the promise of fast-tracked Russian citizenship.
• Global South Mercenaries: Russia has recruited fighters from over 120 countries, including:
 
Mali, Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal,
Asia & Middle East: Recruits from Nepal, India, Sri Lanka, Yemen
Latin America: Recruitment efforts are active in Cuba and other South American nations.
 
• Occupied Ukrainian Territories: In 2026, Russia plans to recruit roughly 67,000 personnel from occupied regions, including Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, often by forcing residents to take Russian passports and then conscripting them.
 
U.S. WEAPONS STOCKPILES
 
Replenishing stocks. The Pentagon is reportedly planning to request funds from Congress to replenish munitions used against Iran. Missiles for the Patriot and THAAD air defense systems will be prioritized, as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles. This comes as the Trump administration has been increasing pressure since early 2025 on defense contractors to ramp up production. According to an analysis by former Pentagon official Elaine McCusker, the first four days of hostilities with Iran cost the U.S. approximately $11 billion – about $5.7 billion of which was spent on interceptor missiles.
 
U.S. & SOUTH KOREA
 
Redeployment. Relatedly, the U.S. and South Korean militaries are in talks on redeploying some Patriot air defense systems based in South Korea to the Middle East, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said
 
FRANCE & LEBANON
 
French engagement. France’s army chief of staff, Gen. Fabien Mandon, is reportedly in Beirut to meet with top Lebanese military and political officials. According to the Intelligence Online outlet, his visit is a last-ditch attempt by the French government to prevent an Israeli deployment to southern Lebanon. France has also reportedly asked the governments of Italy and Greece to coordinate the transit of ships through the Red Sea. On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with the prime ministers of both countries, which also agreed to coordinate military support for Cyprus.
 
UKRAINE HELPING U.S. TAKE DOWN IRANIAN DRONES
 
Ukrainian support. The U.S. requested Ukraine’s support in combating Iranian Shahed drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy said he instructed Ukrainian specialists to “guarantee the required security.”
 
BASE HIT BY DRONE ON CYPRUS
 
Turkish concerns. Turkey’s vice president has warned against using military bases in Cyprus for operations in the Middle East. During a visit to breakaway northern Cyprus, Cevdet Yilmaz criticized the government of the Greek Cypriot south for “seeking a role for itself in major power rivalries” by allowing third countries access to bases on the island. He said this policy was putting lives at risk and posed a danger to all countries in the region. Last weekend, a British air base on the island was hit by a drone, which the Cypriot government suspected was fired by Hezbollah.
 
U.S. & VENEZUELA
 
A new era? The United States and Venezuela agreed to restore diplomatic and consular relations, two months after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Caracas said it wanted to pursue a “new stage of constructive dialogue, based on mutual respect.” On Thursday, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the Venezuelan government would provide security guarantees to mining companies interested in investing in Venezuela. Shell Oil Co. signed several agreements with the Venezuelan government, covering both offshore and onshore natural gas production, following a meeting between Burgum and interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez.
 
SOUTH KOREA & UAE
 
Emergency supplies. South Korea will purchase more than 6 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates as an emergency measure, the South Korean presidential chief of staff said amid concerns over rising energy prices. The government deemed the purchase necessary because 70 percent of South Korea’s crude supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran said had been shut.
 
RUSSIA & FINLAND
 
Nuclear planning. Russia will respond if Finland decides to host nuclear weapons on its territory, a Kremlin spokesperson said. Finnish leaders have proposed lifting restrictions so the country can fully participate in NATO’s nuclear planning, though President Alexander Stubb said there are currently no plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Finland.
 
JAPAN & CANADA
 
Closer ties. Japan and Canada made a strategic partnership agreement aimed at intensifying cooperation in defense, energy, trade and technology. The deal involves closer cooperation on international emergency response, joint coast guard exercises and tackling illegal fishing in the North Pacific.
 
GZB INFOCUS: Disrupted Oil Operations in the Persian Gulf
 
Iranian attacks on shipping and refineries could have persistent effects.
Though oil prices have surged since the start of fighting in the Middle East, investors are still hopeful that the war will resemble last year’s 12-day Israel-Iran war, with minimal impact on energy markets beyond the short term. It helps that oil supply has exceeded demand recently, helping to offset the risk of shortages. However, risks may be longer-lasting than experts currently imagine, even without a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
 
The disruption of maritime traffic through the strait is still the most serious challenge. Even if transit is still possible, the cost to insure a ship passing through the region has exploded, raising doubts about its economic viability. But Iranian missiles and drones have also targeted oil infrastructure in neighboring Arab countries, forcing refiners to temporarily suspend operations.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORT
 

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March 6, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 6 MARCH 2026
 
Daesh/Islamic State: According to the Voice of Khorasan, ISIS’ English online magazine, the group calls for retaking its territories of which control was lost due to the US-coalition counter ISIS campaign. Meanwhile, the group launches a worldwide ‘’Fisabilulah Jihad’’ (sake of Allah's pleasure) to punish ‘’Infidels’’, Mushrikin ( Polytheists) , Monafiqin (professes the faith but inside has disbeliefs) and Rafidah (rejectors or Shi'a Muslims) across the globe.
 
To fulfill its mission the group undertook horrendous assaults on all fronts killing and injuring score of military personnel in the Middle East and Africa, from the beginning of March 2023 until the third day of March 2026. The attacks and casualties of the Islamic State group in the Middle East's province of Syria (Al-Sham), West Africa, Central Africa and Sahel provinces has intensified, with 9 attacks between Feb 28, 2026 to March 2 2026, five of them executed on March 1. Locations: Congo and Uganda on 2/28; Nigeria, Congo, and three in Nigeria on 3/1, Burkina Faso and Somalia on 3/2, and in Syria on 3/2 as well.
 
Despite being largely defeated, the group has made significant achievements to reach its recent goals. It faces a deficit of viable jihadists in terms of numbers for urban warfare and robust competition with Al-Qaeda and its affiliates for recruits at the global level. In order to deal with the setback, ISIS ideologues asked the group’s widows held in squalid, Al-Hol and Roj camps in Syria to marry under age boys get pregnant, while giving birth to potential ISIS fighters. Time will tell which group Al-Qaeda — or ISIS — can capitalize on the predominance of Salafist ideology in the world.
 
**Note to All:**  I know everyone is looking for the next terror attack.  The Jihadist for sure, understand we are looking for indicators for group action, however, we must be cognizant about lone wolves...
 
U.S. SOUTH AMERICA OPS
 
**Colombia and Ecuador Launch ‘Operation Mirror’, Targeting Shared Drug Corridors**-  Colombia and Ecuador have launched “Operation Mirror”, a coordinated offensive against drug trafficking and other illegal economies along their shared border. The binational plan covers five strategic zones, one maritime and four on land, and includes the deployment of more than 20,000 Colombian security personnel in Nariño and Putumayo, backed by Ecuadorian forces on the other side of the line.  The idea is to reduce the room for maneuver of disidencias de las FARC and other groups linked to international cartels that use the Pacific coast and the 586‑kilometer land border as exit and transit corridors. That focus on shared drug corridors helps explain the binational design.
 
THE KURDISH FACTOR
 
Opposition groups. The CIA is reportedly working to arm Kurdish forces in the hopes of inspiring a popular uprising against the Iranian government. According to a report by CNN U.S. officials have been in talks with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about offering them military support. Relatedly, Trump reportedly spoke on Tuesday with the head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, Mustafa Hijri. Meanwhile, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Nechirvan Barzani, discussed the situation in the region with the French foreign minister, who reaffirmed Paris’ support for Iraq’s Kurdish population.
 
IRAN & IRAQ
 
Tehran's request. The deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri, spoke by phone with the Iraqi prime minister’s national security adviser. Bagheri reportedly asked Baghdad to help prevent opposition groups from infiltrating their shared border.
 
U.S., SPAIN & THE U.K.
 
Backlash. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain, after Madrid refused to allow Washington to use jointly operated bases located on Spanish territory for strikes on Iran. Trump said the U.S. doesn’t want “anything to do with Spain,” also noting Madrid’s refusal to increase military spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product. In addition, he again criticized Britain for initially declining to allow the U.S. to use British bases for the Iran operation, despite U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s subsequent decision to give the U.S. access to Diego Garcia for strikes on Iranian missile facilities.
 
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
 
Support for shipping. Trump also announced that he ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance to commercial vessels traveling through the Gulf, adding that the U.S. Navy would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. He made the comments amid Tehran’s threats to shut down the strait and a subsequent surge in oil prices.
 
IRAN & TURKEY
 
Spillover. NATO air defense systems destroyed a ballistic missile fired from Iran toward Turkish airspace. According to Turkish media Turkey’s foreign minister has spoken to his Iranian counterpart about the incident.
 
IRAN’S NUKES
 
Nuclear ambitions. Iran has stockpiled enough enriched uranium to produce 10 nuclear warheads, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said.
He added that the agency had not seen “elements of a systematic and structured program to produce nuclear weapons” in Iran, though the country did enrich uranium to 60 percent, which only nuclear-armed states do. Meanwhile, a senior adviser to late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tehran had no intention of negotiating with Washington, asserting that Iran could not trust the Americans.
 
THE KREMLIN & THE IRGC
 
Russia and Iran. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s support for deescalation and “abandoning the use of force” during a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
 
U.S. & CHINA
 
U.S.-China talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will reportedly meet in Paris next week for trade talks. The discussions are likely to cover Chinese commitments to purchase Boeing aircraft and U.S. soybeans, as well as U.S. tariffs aimed at curbing the trade in fentanyl.
 
TURKEY & THE STANS
 
Turkish support. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The leaders discussed bilateral relations, as well as regional and global issues. Erdogan expressed his readiness to help restore the Turkish-brokered ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan, following recent clashes.
 
GZB INFOCUS: IRAN — DEEP DIVE
 
U.S. strategy hinges on weakening the IRGC without collapsing the entire regime
 
U.S. President Donald Trump said March 3 that he thinks a "more moderate," popular figure who is already part of Iran's regime would be an appropriate choice to take over in Tehran. A day earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war may take “some time” but would not drag on for years. Officials in both governments have stressed that, unlike the post-9/11 interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, the objective this time is not outright regime change and state reconstruction. Instead, the strategy is to degrade Iran’s capabilities to coerce the regime to change its behavior – without triggering total state collapse. However, in the Islamic Republic, where the regime’s ideological core and the institutions of state are deeply fused together, this may be a tall order.
 
I t is important to recognize that, despite their close coordination, U.S. and Israeli interests are not identical, and neither are their war aims. Israel, by virtue of its geography and perception of an acute threat from Iran, has strong incentives to seek the decisive weakening – if not outright collapse – of the Iranian regime. The U.S., as a global power pursuing strategic retrenchment under a revised global strategy, speaks of denying Iran nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles but not transforming its entire regime. While Israel relies heavily on Washington’s superior military capabilities, the Trump administration is wary of being drawn into an open-ended conflict, consistent with the president’s long-standing opposition to “forever wars.”
 
These differences notwithstanding, the core challenge lies in the nature of the Iranian regime itself, whose ideological foundations constrain its willingness – and arguably its capacity – to accommodate U.S. demands without undermining its own legitimacy. Indeed, this structural rigidity helps explain why the Trump administration ultimately opted for a major military operation rather than rely solely on coercive diplomacy. Washington assumed that the 12-day Israel-Iran war last June – during which the U.S. conducted limited strikes on Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities – would demonstrate its escalation dominance and thus might increase Tehran’s receptivity to compromise.
 
Instead, the resumption of negotiations was overtaken by widespread Iranian protests, which ended only when the regime cracked down in early January, further hardening positions in Tehran and narrowing the political space for compromise.
 
Although Trump warned Tehran against its brutal crackdown and voiced support for the nationwide protests, he was not prepared at that stage to abandon the diplomatic track. Washington still assumed that mounting external and internal pressure would compel the regime to reassess and move toward compromise. Indeed, Iranian officials signaled tactical flexibility, suggesting that sanctions relief and deescalation were within reach.
 
Yet after three rounds of talks, it became evident that Tehran was calling Washington’s bluff; it intended to drag out negotiations, absorbing any limited military strikes if necessary, while preserving its indigenous enrichment capability.
 
Once it was convinced that neither continued negotiations nor symbolic strikes would meaningfully alter Tehran’s trajectory, Washington’s dilemma became how to escalate without stumbling into an Iraq-or Afghanistan-style regime change intervention, with all the costs and long-term liabilities such campaigns entail. The administration’s answer was to activate a contingency plan long under development. It would launch a decapitation strike targeting the regime’s senior leadership – including the supreme leader himself – followed by a systematic campaign to degrade its center of gravity, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
 
The early phases appear to have been successful, but dismantling the IRGC’s institutional and operational capacity is inherently a longer-term undertaking. This is particularly true given the need to attrit Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile forces and its large drone arsenal, which Iran has used to target U.S. military facilities across the region alongside Arab states and Israel.
 
The Trump administration faces a narrow window of opportunity in which to achieve its objectives. U.S. midterm elections are eight months away, Trump’s approval ratings are sagging, and war with Iran is unpopular, even within chunks of the president’s base. It is critical for the administration that it calibrate its operations to minimize mission creep.
 
However, this constraint limits the extent to which the U.S. can weaken the Iranian regime.
More important, there is the question of what comes after the war. When the dust settles, the U.S. will need someone capable of running Iran, because the alternative – to leave it in a state of anarchy – would hurt the president politically, undermine U.S. interests in the region and jeopardize its entire retrenchment strategy.
 
Despite his rhetoric urging Iranians to seize control of the government, Trump knows that a public uprising is insufficient for achieving a new political order. Only elements of the existing Iranian elite, especially its security establishment, are capable of maintaining order and essential government functions. This is why Trump called on the IRGC, the regular armed forces (known as the Artesh) and law enforcement personnel to stand down.
 
In the ideal scenario for Washington, the fault lines within the Iranian regime become a strategic asset, enabling it to influence the future shape of the regime while avoiding state collapse or the need for full-scale occupation. For this to work, the U.S. would need to alter the balance of power between the only two institutions within the Islamic Republic capable of holding the country together: the IRGC and the Artesh. As the regime’s center of gravity, the IRGC would need to be sufficiently weakened so that it can no longer dominate decision-making, opening political and operational space for the more secular and nationalist Artesh to assume a greater role in governance.
 
Expecting to topple the IRGC and replace it with the Artesh would be asking too much. For one thing, in wartime, disentangling their functions is inherently difficult, since both share responsibility for national defense – with the IRGC maintaining a decisive advantage. A bigger problem is the IRGC’s long-standing dominance in Iran’s economy and major sectors, including energy, nuclear and missile programs, domestic security and telecommunications.
 
While the IRGC was building this empire, similar capacities in the Artesh were allowed to atrophy. After all, until last June, it had been nearly two generations since Iran’s conventional military was called to fight a war. This is probably why Trump explicitly called on both institutions to come forward, hoping for a coordinated regime transition.
 
The Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela suggests it may be predisposed to secretly engage with alternative power brokers to manage transitions. In Venezuela’s case, Washington exerted pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s regime while also signaling to other potential interlocutors, including opposition and security officials, that it was open to other options beyond outright confrontation. With that in mind, it is possible that the U.S. is maintaining backchannel communication with elements of the IRGC and the Artesh, even as major combat operations continue.
 
Obviously, there are stark differences between the situation in Venezuela and Iran. However, the presence within the IRGC of pragmatic elements potentially more aligned with the Artesh worldview suggests the potential for a coalition that could stabilize the country should the clerical hierarchy erode, which appears likely.
 
If the U.S. is going to leave an Iranian state intact and avoid imposing direct rule, there may be no alternative to the creation of a transitional authority comprising the Artesh and elements of the IRGC.
The slow evolution of the Islamic Republic has been accelerating since last June. The theocracy is likely gone, and a new military-led order will be long in the making.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORT
 
 

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March 5, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 5 MARCH 2026
 
TRUMP ASSASSINATION PLOT
 
War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that an Iranian leader behind a unit that attempted to assassinate President Trump has been killed in Iran amid Operation Epic Fury.
 
In 2024, Iran-linked actors attempted to arrange an assassination plot to take out the president. Iran has previously threatened to assassinate Trump following the 2020 killing of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani.
 
In 2022, an Iranian video depicted an assassination attempt on Trump while he played golf.
 
U.S. officials confirmed earlier this week that strikes on Iran, which began Saturday, killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
 
Trump reflected on Khamenei's death in a call to ABC News' Jonathan Karl earlier this week, saying: "I got him before he got me."
 
"They tried twice," Trump continued, referring to Iran's previous attempts on his life. "Well, I got him first."
 
Meanwhile, Hegseth, on Wednesday said the combination of U.S. and Israeli intelligence and combat power "will control Iran and will control it soon."
 
ISRAEL TOOK CONTROL OF IRAN’S TRAFFIC CAMERAS TO TARGET AYATOLLAH
 
Israel Infiltrated Tehran’s Traffic Cameras Enabling Them To Take Out Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei**- Israel reportedly hacked Iran’s traffic camera network to monitor Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials for years before his assassination on Saturday and the subsequent U.S.–Israeli airstrikes. The long-running cyber-surveillance campaign conducted by Israeli intelligence agencies inside Iran are believed to have infiltrated Tehran’s vast network of traffic cameras, quietly turning the city’s urban surveillance infrastructure into a powerful intelligence tool capable of monitoring the movements of senior Iranian officials. The operation is said to have combined cyber intrusions, human intelligence, and advanced data analytics. According to two unnamed sources cited by the Financial Times, nearly all traffic cameras in Tehran had been compromised for years. Their footage was allegedly encrypted and transmitted to servers located in Tel Aviv and in southern Israel. The operation highlights the increasing role of cyber warfare and digital surveillance in modern intelligence gathering. By gaining covert access to traffic cameras throughout the Iranian capital, analysts were able to build a detailed picture of the daily routines surrounding Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and the security apparatus tasked with protecting him.
 
THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
 
The partial government shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security could impact how the federal government is able to address potential terror threats in the U.S., a public safety expert said, warning that the escalating conflict with Iran could encourage those wishing to harm Americans.
 
Jeffrey Halstead, a retired police chief in Fort Worth, Texas, and a former commander for Homeland Security for Phoenix police, told Fox News Digital that U.S. military actions could "escalate the mindset of some of these outlying or outlier terrorist entities" wanting to take action.
 
"We've seen historically that any time there is a conflict, especially in the Middle East with escalating tensions, military action and now a declaration of war, there is a significant impact on the ability for us to work collectively to share intelligence and gather information in a timely manner from our federal partners," Halstead said. "With the current Department of Homeland Security shutdown, if something were to occur here in the United States, there could be some significant delays because FEMA and other very, very critical divisions of the federal government are basically shut down."
 
He specifically pointed out the terrorist attack in Austin, Texas, over the weekend, which left 2 people dead and 14 injured. The suspect, Ndiaga Diagne, a 53-year-old naturalized citizen born in Senegal, was also killed.
 
Authorities said they are investigating the shooting, which took place at a bar at about 2 a.m. on Sunday, as a "potential nexus to terrorism" as Diagne appeared to wear a "Property of Allah" sweatshirt and an undershirt depicting the Iranian flag. A Quran was also later recovered from his vehicle, and an Iranian flag and images of regime leaders were found at his home.
 
That attack came after U.S.-Israeli joint military strikes, which began against Iran on Saturday morning, killed the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other leaders, triggering a wider conflict in the Middle East.
 
PAKISTAN
 
Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation, warned Iran that it has a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, which considers an attack on one nation to be an attack on both. “It is a sovereign agreement, and we are bound by that,” Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told the Pakistani Senate. The Iranian leadership, he added, “should keep that in mind.” It remains unclear if Pakistan is prepared to enter a broader conflict against Iran.
 
**NOTE:**
I am not sure how this would impact the current situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but Pakistan does border Iran in its southwest province (which they are also having issues with a separatist group - the baloch separatist army.
 
CHINA
 
China will send a special envoy to the Middle East to help mediate conflicts, according to Xinhua, the state news agency. In public statements, the Chinese government has condemned the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, calling them “unacceptable” to “kill the leader of a sovereign country” and urging an immediate diplomatic solution to the conflict. China is Iran’s largest oil buyer.
 
CHINESE BIOLAB PROGRAM IN U.S.
 
**FBI probe of 2nd China-linked lab in U.S. raises specter of bio weapons program** -
 
Communist China has been linked to at least two facilities in the United States that appear to be part of a biological weapons program. The facilities are in Nevada and California. A Declaration of Arrest Report, issued by the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department in connection with the detention of Ori Solomon on Jan. 31, states that there is a “deeper conspiracy” between an illegal biological lab in Reedley, California, and a residence in Nevada found to contain apparently dangerous substances. The FBI now appears concerned about the scope of the Chinese effort. It executed a search warrant on the Reedley facility on Feb. 8. Authorities also found medical waste and chemical, viral, and biological agents. There were at least 20 potentially infectious pathogens on-site, including those that cause coronavirus, HIV, hepatitis, and herpes. The lab contained a freezer labeled “Ebola.” The freezer held unlabeled sealed bags used to store high-risk biological materials. In the garage, investigators found multiple refrigerators with vials of unknown liquids, unknown liquids in gallon-size containers, a centrifuge and other laboratory equipment, authorities said. Investigators identified the owner of the Las Vegas home as Jia Bei Zhu, who is already in federal custody following the discovery of an unauthorized biolab in Reedley, California, in 2023.
 
NORTHCOM ORDERS HEIGHTENED SECURITY MEASURES AT U.S. BASES
 
Northern Command (NORTHCOM) ordered all U.S. bases in the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii to implement security measures including random vehicle inspections and 100% ID checks for persons entering military facilities. NORTHCOM also ordered the temporary suspension of the Trusted Traveler Program which allows Defense civilian employees and service members to escort guests onto facilities without a background check.
 
CYBERWARFARE
 
**Iran-linked hackers escalate spear-phishing targeting critical infrastructure** -
 
Iranian-linked cyber actors, including the IRGC and affiliated hacktivist groups, have intensified spear-phishing campaigns that can escalate into attacks on critical infrastructure. These operations exploit personal data collected over the past decade and use tactics like fake emails, trojanized apps, and malicious links, including Google Meet links that capture photos, audio, and location. Targets include Israeli officials, dissidents, diplomats, Gulf states, and companies linked to the U.S. Groups such as Team 313, DieNet, and Fad Team have claimed responsibility. Regional authorities, supported by intelligence-sharing platforms like Crystal Ball, have largely prevented breaches. Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war improved coordination and defense against cyberattacks. Disinformation campaigns using AI, deepfakes, and large language models remain a threat, potentially radicalizing individuals and sparking physical attacks.
 
MDM (MIS-DIS-MALINFORMATION)
 
**Misinformation Surges After U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran** -
 
Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, pro-Tehran social media accounts have circulated misleading content, including fake videos claiming to show damage to the USS Abraham Lincoln and alleged Iranian retaliatory attacks in Israel. Other posts misrepresented footage from unrelated events as evidence of regional strikes. In Dubai, debris from attacks sparked fabricated online reviews of the Palm Hotel, amplifying public panic. Meanwhile, AI-generated images circulated after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, despite no official photographs of his body being released. Analysts warn that such disinformation campaigns aim to manipulate public perception, inflame tensions, and distort the facts of ongoing military operations.
 
**NOTE:** Welcome to the world of asymmetric warfare, where one Tweet can ruin, distort or obscure the truth....such is the fog of war.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORT
 

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March 4, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 4 MARCH 2026
 
GZB OPENING SHOT
 
The war with Iran — and the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — may look like the dramatic end of a decades-long regime. But for some hardline Shiite ideologues, including voices operating inside the United States, it is being framed as something far bigger: a prophetic turning point.
 
A recent investigation, digging around in mosque (masjid) websites and YouTube posts — found that certain clerics, activists, and pro-regime networks are casting the escalating conflict in apocalyptic terms rooted in Islamic end-times theology. In that worldview, the chaos is not merely geopolitical. It is a precursor to the arrival of the Mahdi, a messianic figure in Islamic eschatology who is believed to defeat evil in a final battle.
 
While I am not an expert in theology, I have studied both Christian and Islamic eschatology. I have on several occasions, written about it here in GZB. I’m going to go a little deeper in the weeds because of the current conflict with Iran.
 
In the Islamic narrative, the Mahdi will confront Dajjal — the Islamic equivalent of the Antichrist. For some of these hardline voices, President Donald Trump is being cast in that role.
 
At a recent Friday sermon at a Shiite mosque in northern Virginia, an imam closed prayers with a plea calling for the destruction of “nonbelievers” and “hypocrites” — Arabic terms he used before invoking victory ahead of the Mahdi’s arrival. The mosque’s main prayer hall prominently displayed framed photos of Khamenei embracing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, both killed by Israel after orchestrating terrorist attacks.
 
The theological framing mirrors warnings issued earlier this year by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said Iran’s leadership makes policy decisions not solely on national security grounds but based on “pure theology.”
 
Digital analysis conducted as part of the investigation reviewed sermons, protest slogans, and social media posts. The findings suggest that pro-regime clerics and organizations in the U.S. are increasingly describing tensions with Iran in explicitly apocalyptic language.
 
Messaging platforms such as Telegram reportedly filled with prayers after war broke out, with users calling for the Mahdi’s return. One post read, “We need Al Mahdi… His return with Jesus will be the final win permanently.”
 
The National Union for Democracy in Iran, an advocacy group opposing the regime, alleges that Tehran has invested for years in building influence networks inside the United States. In an upcoming report, the group claims institutions supported by the Islamic Republic are promoting narratives that mirror Tehran’s messaging “almost word for word,” including portrayals of Trump as Dajjal and Iran as the defender of the Mahdi’s cause.
 
In Michigan, cleric Usama Abdulghani of the Hadi Institute warned congregants before war broke out that “the empire is now right outside the door,” referring to U.S. forces. In another lecture, he described the current moment as the “mother of all battles,” asserting Iran has been waiting for such a confrontation since 1979.
 
Researchers at the National Contagion Research Institute have described what they call decentralized influence networks amplifying pro-regime narratives, including claims that Western intelligence agencies foment unrest inside Iran.
 
The apocalyptic imagery extends beyond sermons. Children’s programs affiliated with some groups have featured imagery invoking the Mahdi, while pro-regime media outlets have tied global corruption narratives to messianic themes.
 
Scholars note that the world’s Muslim population holds a wide range of beliefs regarding the Mahdi, and many reject literal or militant interpretations of eschatology. But the investigation underscores how a subset of hardline voices interpret unfolding events not as random conflict — but as destiny.
 
As military operations continue abroad, officials and analysts are now grappling with another dimension of the conflict: the spread of theological narratives on American soil that frame global war as the opening act of Armageddon.
 
Remember, it’s always the extremists who drive the narrative — the peaceful majority are irrelevant.
 
FLORIDA BOMB THREAT
 
Florida: BSO: Man arrested after making bomb threat aboard JetBlue plane at FLL**- Deputies in Broward County arrested a man on Sunday after an alleged bomb threat was made on an aircraft. According to the Broward Sheriff’s Office, deputies responded to Terminal Four at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport just before 10 a.m. in reference to a passenger on a Jet Blue flight making a verbal threat. Authorities said they took a man into custody who made a bomb threat.
 
CYBER OPSEC IS A THING…
 
**Cybercom didn’t tell troops to disable location services or uninstall apps, military officials say, after viral message spread amid Iran operation**-
 
Multiple defense officials told DefenseScoop Sunday that a viral message purporting to be from U.S. Cyber Command wasn’t sent by the command. The message claimed Cybercom was warning troops to turn off location services from their electronic devices and that multiple commercial applications were compromised, all amid the ongoing military operations against Iran. The message — reviewed by DefenseScoop — was circulating in some military circles and social media Sunday. It urged “all U.S. service members” to turn off location services from their electronic devices. It also said that Uber, Snapchat and a food delivery service that operates in the Middle East known as Talabat were “compromised.” The origin of the message is unclear, however, and it spread through various military channels on Sunday. An account with more than 40,000 followers posted the message on social media, which had racked up hundreds of thousands of views, and pushed the claim, as did other users. The so-called 12-day War between Iran and Israel last year revealed how Tehran-linked actors used “a broad range of operations designed to exert psychological pressure, collect tactical intelligence, enforce deterrence against third countries, and maintain domestic control,” according to the Middle East Institute. MEI said Iran had also “intensified its psychological operations through the use of AI to generate and disseminate disinformation.”
 
QATAR ARREST IRGC CELLS
 
Qatar’s official state news agency said in the early hours of Wednesday in the Middle East that the country’s authorities had “successfully arrested two cells” operating for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Qatar. Ten suspects were arrested, seven of whom were accused of being “tasked with espionage missions to gather intelligence on the nation’s vital and military infrastructure,” according to the Qatari authorities, while the other three were “assigned to conduct sabotage activities and trained in the use of drones.” According to the state news agency, Qatari authorities found they had “locations and coordinates of sensitive facilities and installations, along with communication devices and technological equipment” and during investigations the suspects had “confessed their links” to Iran, as well as their role in espionage and subversion missions.
 
IRAN TARGETING COMMUNICATIONS
 
Iran strikes U.S. military communication infrastructure in the Mideast**- Iranian strikes conducted over the weekend and on Monday damaged structures that are part of or near communication and radar systems on at least seven U.S. military sites across the Middle East, according to a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery and verified videos. Visuals show damage on or close to radar systems used to track incoming ballistic missiles, satellite dishes and radomes, which are weatherproof covers that protect sensitive equipment used by forces to communicate over long distances.
 
U.S. EMBASSY PAKISTAN
 
U.S. Marines fired on protesters storming consulate in Karachi, officials say **- American officials have revealed that U.S. Marines opened fire during a breach of the U.S. consulate in Karachi over the weekend, amid nationwide protests in Pakistan following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The two officials said it remains unclear whether Marine gunfire caused casualties, though ten people were reported killed as demonstrators stormed the compound. Pakistani authorities said security personnel fired shots but did not specify affiliations. The incident marks a rare confirmed use of force by Marines at a diplomatic post. Pakistan has since banned large gatherings as unrest spreads, with heightened security around U.S. facilities in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad.
 
U.S. EMBASSY SAUDI ARABIA
 
**The American Embassy in Saudi Arabia was hit by two drones on Tuesday, the kingdom said ** -
 
The United States Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was attacked by two drones according to initial estimates from the Saudi Ministry of Defense in a statement early on Tuesday morning in the Middle East, as Iran appeared to be expanding its assault on American allies in the region. The ministry said there was “limited fire and minor material damage to the building.” However, the embassy warned people to avoid the location, saying there had been “an attack on the facility” and issued a security alert and a shelter in place notification for the cities of Jeddah, Riyadh and Dhahran.
 
**NOTE: The Saudi Defense Ministry spokesman said early on Tuesday that eight drones were intercepted near the cities of Riyadh and Al-Kharj. The statement came about two hours after the ministry said that the American Embassy in Riyadh had been hit by two drones.
 
U.S. EMBASSY KUWAIT
 
Iranian Strikes Hit US Embassy in Kuwait, Smoke Billows Over Compound** - Sirens sounded across parts of the capital as emergency teams rushed to the scene and authorities urged residents to remain indoors. A witness living near the diplomatic compound said smoke was clearly visible over the neighbourhood shortly after dawn. Video circulated by international news agencies showed smoke billowing from inside the embassy grounds while alarms wailed in the background, heightening fears of further escalation in the region.
 
U.S. EMBASSY DUBAI (UAE)
 
Videos shared on social media on Tuesday and verified by The New York Times show a large fire at the U.S. Consulate complex in Dubai**- In some clips, a loud buzzing sound similar to those from Iran’s Shahed drones can be heard immediately before an explosion. It was unclear how much damage the consulate in the United Arab Emirates sustained in the attack. The Dubai media office said the fire had been contained and that no injuries were reported. Secretary of State Marco Rubio just confirmed that a drone struck a parking lot near the consulate. He said all American personnel had been accounted for.
 
IRAN HAS ZERO OPTIONS: FRIENDLY FIRE BIGGEST THREAT
 
Decorated Navy TOPGUN graduate and F/A-18 fighter pilot Matthew "Whiz" Buckley said Tuesday that Iran has "zero" options as U.S. and Israeli strikes continue in Operation Epic Fury — but warned the biggest danger now may be friendly fire amid a complex battle environment.
 

Given U.S. air superiority (https://www.foxnews.com/category/us/military/air-force), Buckley said on "Fox & Friends First" the Iranian government is backed into a corner.

"They really don't have any options. When you have command of the sky, you can do whatever you want... We have free flow over the airspace, which means we can pick and choose targets at will and not worry about any ground fire," he said, but added that, "the only ground fire we have to worry about is friendly fire."
 
Buckley said he was grateful for the safety of the U.S. airmen who had to eject themselves from their F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft after they were mistakenly engaged by allied Kuwaiti air defenses.
 
"I'm more worried about our own forces than I am the Iranians at this point. It's over with. As far as their air, sea and mainly land powers as well," he said.
 
Three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles were shot down in a friendly fire incident over Kuwait late Sunday during active combat operations tied to Operation Epic Fury, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said. The aircraft were taken down by Kuwait amid a complex battle environment that included attacks by Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles and drones.
 
All six aircrew members safely ejected, were quickly recovered, and are reported to be in stable condition.
 
U.S. BDA OF IRAN
 
Admiral Cooper said the U.S. has so far struck nearly 2,000 targets with 2,000 munitions, destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones** “-
 
In simple terms, we’re focused on shooting all the things that can shoot at us,” he said. “We are also sinking the Iranian Navy, the entire navy,” he added, noting that 17 Iranian ships were destroyed, “including the most operational submarine that now has a hole in its side.” In a social media post, a senior U.S. military official acknowledged that American forces had used a new missile that would have been banned by the former Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said on Tuesday that Army soldiers launched Precision Strike Missiles, or PrSM (pronounced like “prism”), a short-range ballistic missile which can fly father than the 310-mile-range prohibited by the I.N.F. treaty, at a target in Iran.
 
BAHRAIN
 
**A U.S.-flagged oil tanker in Bahrain is attacked, killing a shipyard worker**- An oil tanker flying the U.S. maritime flag was attacked as it was docked in the port of Bahrain, according to Crowley, the Florida-based company operating the vessel. One shipyard worker was reported dead and two others injured, the company said in a statement, adding that the ship had “suffered damage due to aerial impacts.” It is not clear who attacked the tanker, the Stena Imperative. American mariners operate U.S.-flagged vessels, and Crowley said the mariners on the tanker had reported no injuries. The attack caused a fire onboard, which Crowley said was extinguished in short order.
 
U.S. BEGINS MILITARY OPERATIONS IN ECUADOR
 
U.S. Opens Military Action in Ecuador Against ‘Terrorist Organizations’**-
 
The United States and Ecuador have launched joint military operations against “designated terrorist organizations” in the South American country, the Pentagon said on Tuesday night, in what appeared to be a major expansion of the U.S. military’s unilateral strikes against boats in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific that the Trump administration has accused of carrying drugs. U.S. Special Forces soldiers are advising and supporting Ecuadorian commandos on raids across the country against suspected drug shipment facilities and other drug-related sites, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The Americans are not believed to be participating in the actual raids, but are helping the Ecuadorian troops plan their operations, and are providing intelligence and logistics support, the official said.
 
GZB INFOCUS: Germany discovers Quantum Internet
 
Quantum internet materializes in Germany due to a 30-kilometer breakthrough
On a 30-kilometer loop of commercial fiber in Berlin, researchers just teleported data while ordinary internet traffic flowed on the same line without a hiccup. The feat, executed by T-Labs with Qunnect’s Carina platform, kept delicate quantum states steady against city vibrations and temperature swings, hitting 95 percent fidelity in real time. It shows that today’s networks can carry tomorrow’s quantum links, with stakes that range from unbreakable cryptography to connected quantum computers. For Deutsche Telekom’s Abdu Mudesir, it also signals a path to European technological sovereignty as the system scales to longer distances and more nodes.
 
Understanding quantum teleportation
 
Quantum teleportation can sound like fiction, yet it rests on hard physics. It moves a particle’s quantum state, not the particle, across distance through entanglement. In Berlin, researchers just sent quantum data across 30 kilometers of commercial fiber alongside everyday traffic. That shift from lab benches to city cables signals a practical threshold for the next phase of the Quantum Internet.
 
Here is how it works. 2 distant nodes share a pair of entangled photons, then a measurement at the sender projects the state. A short classical message carries the measurement result so the receiver can reconstruct the qubit. No information outruns light, yet the fragile state itself is faithfully transferred.
 
This experiment, led by T-Labs with partners at Qunnect, ran on an urban loop linking a lab and a network node. Using the Carina platform, the team actively stabilized photons against vibrations and temperature drift. Quantum signals coexisted with standard internet traffic, with no crosstalk. Results reached 95% fidelity at 795 nanometers (a wavelength aligned with neutral-atom systems), demonstrating real robustness.
 
The trick was relentless stabilization. Phase noise from the metro and roadworks was corrected in real time, while timing stayed locked with precise references. Crucially, the quantum channel rode the same fibers as ordinary data, and the hardware sat in standard racks. That is compatibility you can deploy without rebuilding a city.
 
Securing the Internet’s future
 
The implications stretch far beyond a single city link. A Quantum Internet could bring quantum cryptography to scale, making sensitive traffic practically invulnerable to interception. It also hints at distributed quantum computing, where machines collaborate across regions for tougher workloads. As Abdu Mudesir notes, proving this on carrier infrastructure strengthens Europe’s hand in building secure, sovereign networks for public and industrial use.
 
There is also a roadmap forming. The 795 nanometer choice harmonizes with neutral-atom qubits and optical clocks, a bet on interoperable platforms. Running over commercial fiber keeps costs and permitting in check, inviting pilots across major corridors within 24 to 36 months. Policy and procurement will decide how quickly this scales.
 
A new standard for global communication
 
Perhaps the most striking aspect is its real-world context. This is the case where city noise, server racks, and legacy fiber did not derail the physics. The next milestones are clear: extend to longer spans, connect more nodes, and automate operations at scale (with rigorous standards across vendors). With steps like these, Europe signals an ambition to redefine global communication norms.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORT
 

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March 1, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 1 MARCH 2026
 
The FBI has issued a terror alert warning for the U.S. Homeland that unfortunately isn’t on their website. DHS doesn’t have an update on the alert either — because of the government shutdown.
 
GZB recommends that in D.C., New York, California, Michigan, Minnesota and Texas — that citizens remain vigilant and a good situational awareness in crowded venues, landmarks, sports arenas , concerts, large churches and shopping centers/malls.
Sleeper cells and active terror cells in the U.S. you should be aware of:
 
Unit 910 IRGC (Iranian) and Hezbollah (Lebanese) terror cells in the U.S.
 
Other Related Units: Other designated units involved in Iranian intelligence activities include:
 
Unit 840: A secretive special operations unit within the IRGC-QF responsible for plotting against foreign targets.
 
Department 40: A cyber counterintelligence unit of the
IRGC involved in surveillance and intelligence gathering.
 
Unit 11,000: A Quds Force unit focused on targeting Israeli/ Jewish locations, often outsourcing to local criminals.
 
**FBI Joint Terrorism Taskforce investigating mass shooting at Austin bar near UT campus** -
 
Three people were killed and 14 others were wounded when a gunman opened fire at a packed bar in downtown Austin early Sunday — and the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force is investigating the attack. Police responded to reports of a male shooting at Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden — near the University of Texas-Austin — just before 2 a.m., officials said at a press conference. The gunman reportedly stormed the bar with a handgun and an assault rifle, according to the Austin-American Statesman. The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force has joined the investigation into the mass shooting — indicating that the motive of the attack could be related to terrorism. Officials said they will release more information as it becomes available throughout the day.
Postponing or canceling international travel is advised.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORT
 

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SPECIAL REPORT - February 28, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 28 FEBRUARY 2026
 
GZB SPECIAL REPORT
 
28 FEBRUARY 2026
 
As of February 2026, U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies have issued high-level warnings regarding potential Iranian sleeper cells on U.S. soil. These concerns have intensified following significant geopolitical escalations, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-2025.
 
Current Threat Status (2025–2026)
 
• Official Warnings: In late 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Rodney Scott stated that the threat of sleeper cells activating on behalf of Iran has "never been higher," though he noted no specific, actionable plots had been publicly disclosed at that time.
 
• Intelligence Monitoring: Agencies like the FBI
 
https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/counterintelligence/the-iran-threat  and DHS https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-syst em-bulletin-june-22-2025  are on high alert for "chatter" indicating proxy attacks by groups like Hezbollah.
 
• Border Concerns: Officials highlighted that over 1,750 Iranian nationals entered the U.S. illegally between 2021 and late 2024, a significant increase that has fueled fears of undetected infiltration.
 
Recent Law Enforcement Actions
 
• Mass Arrests: In mid-2025, Attorney General Pam Bondi reported the arrest of approximately 1,500 Iranian nationals unlawfully present in the U.S..
 
• Targeted Detentions: Following the June 2025 strikes, ICE
https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/ice-arrests-over-100-iranian-nationals-amid-sleeper-cell-concerns-pam-bondi-detention-donald-trump-tom-homan-border-czar arrested over 130 individuals flagged as potential security risks, including a former Iranian army sniper.
 
• Foiled Plots: The DOJ has recently charged several individuals in connection with Iranian-backed "murder-for-hire" plots targeting high-ranking U.S. officials and dissidents.
 

BULLETIN --  OPERATION EPIC FURY HAS BEEN LAUNCHED AGAINST THE IRAN REGIME.

 
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.

 
 
—END REPORT
 
 

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February 27, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 27 FEBRUARY 2026
 
RAMADAN
 
**Muslim clerics: ‘Ramadan is the month of jihad, victories and martyrdom’**-
 
The month of Ramadan – which this year started on February 18 – is a time of piety of fasting, but it is also associated in Islam with jihad, conquest and martyrdom.
According to Muslim tradition, during Ramadan Allah grants the Muslims glorious victories, as exemplified in history by the Battle of Badr (624 CE), the conquest of Mecca (630), the conquest of Andalusia (711), the battle of Ein Jalut (1260), and the “War of Ramadan” fought by Egypt against Israel in 1973 (also known as the Yom Kippur War).
The establishment in some Muslim countries promotes the perception of Ramadan as the month of jihad and victory, and inculcates the belief that great Muslim victories like those listed above are attainable every year during this month.
 
This message is conveyed in sermons delivered by establishment clerics in the Arab world, in the government-controlled media and press, and in the schools systems of some Muslim countries. This perception is also espoused by jihadi and terrorist organizations, which leverage the religious and spiritual atmosphere of Ramadan, and the legacy of Ramadan battles and victories in Islamic history, to intensify the incitement to terrorism.
 
They emphasize that the commandment to wage jihad assumes special significance during this month, due to the heightened readiness for martyrdom, and stress that attacks during Ramadan have a “special flavor and character,” and even earn their perpetrators a greater divine reward.
 
IRAN REFUSES U.S. TERMS
 
Tehran's conditions. Iran’s proposal to the United States during recent talks in Geneva rejected the elimination of uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, dismantling of nuclear facilities and transferring uranium stockpiles outside the country, a senior Iranian official confirmed to Al Jazeera. According to the official, Iran’s plan focuses on reducing uranium stockpiles to low-enrichment levels and achieving “common interests, especially in the economic dimension.
 
SWEDEN & RUSSIA
 
Electronic countermeasures activated after Swedish Navy detected drone launched from Russian vessel in Öresund Strait
The Swedish Armed Forces jammed a suspected Russian drone Feb. 25 as it approached a French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier while docked in Malmö during major NATO according to reports.
 
The Charles de Gaulle warship, the flagship of the French Navy, was visiting the southern Swedish port as part of the mission LA FAYETTE 26.
 
The drills brought NATO naval forces into the Baltic Sea region at a time of rising tensions with Moscow.
 
The drone security breach unfolded when the carrier was in port, underscoring mounting concerns over Russian-linked drone activity near critical Western military assets, according to SVT.
 
The Swedish broadcaster reported that the drone was launched from a nearby Russian vessel and moved toward the carrier before being detected by Swedish forces.
A ship from the Swedish Navy found the suspected drone during ongoing sea patrols in the Öresund Strait.
 
In response, Swedish operatives activated electronic countermeasures, disrupting the aircraft’s control systems.
 
"A ship from the Swedish Navy observed a suspected drone during ongoing sea patrols in the Öresund," the Swedish Armed Forces said in a statement, SVT reported.
As yet, it remains unclear whether the drone returned to the Russian vessel or fell into the sea after being jammed.
 
Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson told SVT Thursday that the drone came "probably from Russia, as there was a Russian military vessel in the immediate vicinity at the time of the facts," according to Le Monde.
 
"A drone was jammed yesterday by a Swedish system at about seven nautical miles from the Charles de Gaulle. The Swedish system worked perfectly and this did not disrupt operations on board," French General Staff spokesman Colonel Guillaume Vernet also said.
 
**NOTE: This incident came just hours after Poland sent fighter jets overnight in response to another wave of Russian strikes over Ukraine heightening tensions between Moscow and NATO, according to reports.
 
It also follows warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin who said that his "adversaries know how things could end" if they resort to using a "nuclear" response.
 
PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN
 
Pakistan on Friday launched airstrikes on neighboring Afghanistan in response to what Islamabad called an “unprovoked” attack by Afghan Taliban forces across the border. According to Pakistani officials, 133 Afghan Taliban fighters were killed and more than 200 were wounded. The strikes also destroyed the headquarters of two brigades in Kabul, a corps headquarters and an ammunition depot in Kandahar. On Wednesday, the Taliban announced a massive strike against Pakistani military positions along their shared border (known as the Durand Line). The Afghan Ministry of National Defense said 55 Pakistani soldiers were killed in the attack and two bases and 19 military outposts were either captured or destroyed. The strike was in response to Pakistani airstrikes on Feb. 21 that resulted in civilian deaths.
 
Pakistan’s defense minister declared an "open war" with Afghanistan on Friday.
Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif said in a post on X that Pakistan had hoped the Taliban would bring stability after NATO’s withdrawal, but instead accused the group of turning Afghanistan "into a colony of India" and "exporting terrorism."
"Our patience has now run out. Now it is open war between us," he said.
 
The clashes came after the Taliban said it launched retaliatory strikes on Pakistani military positions, while Islamabad said it was responding to unprovoked fire in the area.
 
Reuters reported that both forces clashed for more than two hours along their roughly 2,600-kilometer (1,615-mile) border, threatening a ceasefire that had been agreed to in 2025 after fighting.
 
Thursday's flare-up came after Pakistani forces carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan earlier this week, with Taliban officials saying the strikes killed at least 18 people, Reuters reported Feb. 24.
 
Pakistan said it targeted militant hideouts and rejected claims that civilians were targeted.
 
The Taliban described an "extensive" military operation against Pakistani army positions in response to the strikes.
 
"In response to repeated provocations, extensive preemptive operations have been launched against Pakistani military positions along the Durand Line," Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid wrote on X.
 
SYRIA
 
U.S. vs. Chinese tech. The U.S. is pressuring Syria to abandon Chinese technology in the telecommunications sector. According to a Reuters report U.S. State Department officials warned Syria’s minister of communications during an undisclosed meeting in San Francisco that the use of Chinese tech threatened U.S. national security interests and urged Damascus to use American technology or technology from allied countries instead. According to Reuters, a significant part of the country’s telecommunications infrastructure already depends on solutions from China’s Huawei.
 
RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR
 
Russia Launches Massive Overnight Strikes on Ukraine, Hitting Cities and Energy Infrastructure **- Russia launched a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine, injuring at least 28 people and striking multiple regions, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Odesa, Ukrainian authorities reported. The assault involved 420 drones and 39 missiles, targeting energy, residential, and railway infrastructure, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting most but not all. Damage included fires, destroyed apartments, and power outages affecting 32,000 households in Odesa Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the strikes as attacks on civilians and critical infrastructure. The assault coincides with stalled peace talks in Geneva and follows the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
 
Ukraine Expands Use of Domestic Flamingo Missiles for Deep Strikes on Russian Targets **- Ukraine has increasingly deployed domestically produced Flamingo cruise missiles since November 2025, recently striking a key Russian missile factory in Votkinsk, about 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine. The FP-5 Flamingo, touted by President Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukraine's "most successful missile," has a reported range of 3,000 kilometers and a warhead exceeding 1,100 kilograms, giving it a far greater destructive potential than long-range drones. Analysts note that Flamingos complement Ukraine’s deep-strike arsenal, enabling attacks on high-value Russian targets protected by air defenses. Production capacity remains a key factor in the missile’s future use. Analysts suggest that Flamingos could significantly enhance Kyiv’s ability to degrade Russian military capabilities from a distance while offsetting Ukraine’s disadvantage in conventional battlefield strength.
 
ZAPORIZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
 
Limited deal. Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a ceasefire around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The deal is meant to allow repair teams to make necessary changes to the plant. Demining activities in the area are ongoing to allow secure access for the teams.
 
U.K. & FRENCH BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE?
 
Peacekeeping prep. British and French paratroopers are conducting joint exercises as preparation for a possible deployment to Ukraine. The drills saw more than 600 troops from the British army’s 16th Air Assault Brigade training alongside counterparts from the French 11th Parachute Brigade. They began on Feb. 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
 
NORTH KOREA
 
**North Korea’s Kim promises more nuclear weapons as Congress closes with military parade** -
 
North ‌Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he would focus on expanding ⁠his country’s nuclear arsenal and that prospects ⁠for improving relations with the U.S. rested entirely on Washington’s attitude, state media KCNA reported on Thursday. North Korea’s week-long Ninth Congress of the ⁠ruling Workers’ Party wrapped with a military parade in the capital Pyongyang on Wednesday, KCNA reported. The Asian nation’s “international status has risen extraordinarily” as it laid out major policy goals for the next five years, Kim said.
 
U.S., JAPAN & PHILIPPINES JOINT DRILLS
 
Expanded drills. The Philippines, Japan and the United States held naval exercises this week near the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan. The drills, aimed at enhancing interoperability between the countries’ armed forces, were expanded for the first time beyond the South China Sea. A Philippine naval official noted during a press conference the “illegal presence” of two Chinese navy ships on separate days of the exercises.
 
GZB INFOCUS: SPACE
 
Most people do not think about space very often. They use GPS to find their way. They check the weather on their phones. They transfer money, watch the news and communicate instantly across continents. All of this works so smoothly that it feels automatic. But we rarely consider that almost none of it would function without satellites orbiting above the Earth.
 
Modern life now depends on space in ways few societies have ever depended on any single environment before. Banking systems, transportation networks, military coordination, global communications and disaster response all rest on systems that operate far beyond national borders and outside traditional political control. This quiet dependence is why space has become one of the most important arenas of global competition in the 21st century.
 
The emergence of space as a central arena of geopolitical competition represents one of the most consequential shifts in global strategy since the advent of nuclear weapons and intercontinental aviation. As in previous eras of technological transformation, this shift is defined not by individual inventions or isolated programs but by the gradual reorganization of power around a new strategic environment. Space is becoming not merely an extension of terrestrial politics but a foundational layer upon which economic, military and political systems increasingly depend.
 
Throughout history, major changes in the structure of power have followed changes in how societies move, communicate and organize production. The control of rivers, seas, railways, airspace and digital networks has repeatedly reshaped global hierarchies. Space now joins this sequence. It is becoming the medium through which modern civilization operates and, therefore, the terrain on which future competition will be decided. It is the strategic future.
 
From a geopolitical perspective, this mirrors classical balance-of-power logic. States survive not by eliminating risk but by building systems capable of absorbing shocks without losing coherence. It also means that successful nations will be able to exploit a competition continuum rather than simply seeing the world as one of peace and war. Further, nations that wish to succeed will need to think in terms of not only geopolitics but also astropolitics and, more importantly, the synthesis of the two.
 
Space Is Becoming the World’s Infrastructure
 
Throughout history, power has followed infrastructure. Nations that controlled rivers, seas, railways, air routes and digital networks shaped how commerce, security and politics worked. They did not dominate because they owned every asset. They dominated because they managed the systems everyone else relied on.
 
Space is now joining this pattern. Satellites form an invisible scaffolding around modern civilization. When they function well, societies thrive. When they fail, disruptions cascade quickly across economies and governments. This makes space less like a traditional battlefield and more like a global highway system. Control does not mean planting flags. It means keeping traffic flowing for yourself while making it difficult for rivals to interfere.
 
Why Technology Alone Is Not Enough
 
Much public discussion of space focuses on breakthroughs: new rockets, new satellites, new weapons, new commercial ventures. These innovations matter, but history suggests they are not decisive on their own. Imperial Spain had the world’s most powerful navy in its time. Britain dominated the seas for more than a century. The Soviet Union matched the United States in many areas of technology.
 
All eventually declined. They did not fall because they lacked innovation but because their political and economic systems could not adapt fast enough to changing conditions.
 
Space competition follows the same logic. Any technological advantage will be temporary. Rivals will copy it. Commercial firms will disrupt it. Politics will redirect it. Crises will test it. The deeper question is not who builds the best system first. It is who can keep improving when conditions change.
 
Competitive Endurance: Staying Power in Space
 
This is where the idea of “competitive endurance” becomes important. Originally developed within the U.S. Space Force, the concept focuses on resilience rather than dominance. It emphasizes building systems that can absorb shocks, recover from losses and evolve.
 
In practical terms, this means:
 
• Using diverse and redundant satellites
 
• Avoiding single points of failure
 
• Training personnel for continuous learning
 
• Integrating military and commercial capabilities
 
• Planning for disruption, not perfection
 
Instead of seeking permanent superiority, competitive endurance aims to deny rivals the ability to achieve decisive advantage. Power becomes something maintained daily, not something won once.
 
The Geography of Space Still Matters
 
Although space seems limitless, it is governed by strict physical rules. Orbits are predictable. Movement requires fuel and planning. Collisions create dangerous debris. Repairs and replacements take time. These constraints create strategic “terrain,” even without land.
 
Just as sea lanes and mountain passes once shaped history, orbital pathways now influence how power operates. Above Earth, attention is expanding into cislunar space – the region between Earth and the moon. Over time, this area may host navigation routes, fuel depots and logistical hubs that support deeper space activity. Early positioning in these regions will influence access and standards for decades. Once such systems are established, they become difficult to displace.
 
Space Power Is a System, Not a Weapon
 
No single satellite, rocket or sensor produces space power. Power emerges from how multiple elements work together:
 
• Surveillance enables awareness.
 
• Communications enable coordination.
 
• Logistics enable persistence.
 
• Security enables commerce.
 
• Deterrence stabilizes competition.
 
When these functions align, influence becomes embedded in daily operations. This resembles how past empires combined trade, finance, administration and military force into integrated systems. No single component was decisive. Coordination was.
In today’s environment, this coordination increasingly involves governments, private firms, allies, insurers and investors. Influence flows through networks rather than hierarchies.
 
The Economic Dimension
 
Space is also becoming an economic arena. Navigation services, remote sensing, communications networks and emerging manufacturing projects are creating new dependencies. States that shape standards, financing and regulation gain indirect influence. They affect which technologies spread and which fail.
 
Historically, dominant powers organized new economic spaces before others understood their importance. The Dutch did it with global trade. Britain did it with shipping. The United States did it with finance and technology.
Space represents the next such frontier.
 
Learning Capacity and Human Capital
 
Institutions tend to prepare for familiar problems. When environments change, adaptation is slow.
 
Space competition evolves rapidly. Commercial actors innovate. Rivals test unconventional tactics. Legal frameworks lag behind reality. In this environment, learning capacity becomes a strategic asset. Scenario planning, simulations and long-term analysis help institutions recognize emerging risks before they become crises. They do not eliminate uncertainty, but they help manage it.
 
Historically, successful powers invested heavily in such intellectual infrastructure. Space competition will reward those who do so again.
 
Advanced technology is useless without skilled people. Space operations demand long training cycles, interdisciplinary expertise and high tolerance for complexity. Errors are costly, and decisions are often irreversible.
 
Professional cultures that combine technical competence with strategic judgment become long-term advantages. They preserve institutional memory across political cycles and technological transitions. In this sense, human capital functions as invisible infrastructure. It limits what systems can achieve.
 
A Competition Measured in Decades
 
Space power develops slowly. Infrastructure takes years to build. Standards take decades to settle. Networks become entrenched over generations. Maritime empires, industrial dominance and digital supremacy all unfolded gradually. Space will follow the same pattern.
 
Early leaders gain cumulative advantages. Latecomers face rising barriers. This does not guarantee permanent dominance. Systems can decay, institutions can stagnate and political cohesion can fracture. But it means early choices matter disproportionately.
 
Endurance Over Spectacle
 
Space is becoming the structural foundation of modern power. It integrates military, economic and political functions into a single environment that shapes how societies operate. Dominance in this domain will depend less on dramatic achievements than on sustained organizational capacity. Resilience, learning, economic integration and institutional coherence will matter more than isolated breakthroughs.
 
Great powers succeed when they align geography, technology and institutions into coherent systems. They fail when these elements drift apart. Space is now where that alignment will be tested.
 
The long-term question is not whether space will matter. It already does. The question is which nations can sustain coherence across decades of technological change, political uncertainty and economic competition. That capacity for endurance will determine the future balance of power.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 

—END REPORT
 
 

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International Travel Advice

GRAY ZONE BRIEF - INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL ADVICE - Feb 26, 2026

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February 26, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 26 FEBRUARY 2026
 
IRAN
 
President Trump has drawn the line. Now the clock is running. GZB was off in my forecast of the U.S. bombing Iran by one week. Some analysts think that it won’t happen because of Ramadan. However diplomatic, that doesn’t fit the deadline — and Ramadan isn’t over until the end of March.
 
After publicly giving Iran roughly 10 days to 15 days to reach a nuclear agreement, Trump used his State of the Union address to make clear the deadline is backed by force.
 
"I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror … to have a nuclear weapon," he told lawmakers Tuesday night.
 
The president first outlined the short timeline Feb. 19, saying the world would know within "probably 10 days" whether Tehran was prepared to strike what he called a meaningful deal.
 
"I would think that would be enough time — 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum," Trump said, warning that absent an agreement, "it’s going to be unfortunate for them."
 
On Tuesday, he reinforced the pressure from the House chamber, telling Congress negotiations are underway, but Iran has not met his core condition.
 
"We are in negotiations with them," Trump said. "They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon.'"
 
He also pointed back to the 2025 U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, describing Operation Midnight Hammer as having "obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons program."
After that operation, he said, Tehran was warned "to make no future attempts to rebuild its weapons program," adding that Iran is now "starting it all over again."
 
(GZB has previously covered the restart of Iran’s nuclear program.)
 
With the State of the Union complete and the president’s timeline already in motion, the coming days are likely to determine whether the administration secures a nuclear concession — or shifts toward a more confrontational path in the Middle East.
 
The diplomatic ultimatum is underscored by the largest assembly of U.S. naval power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
 
The world’s most advanced aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived at Souda Bay, Crete, Monday. The Ford joined USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been conducting 24-hour flight operations in the Arabian Sea since late January.
 
Between the two strike groups, the U.S. now commands a fleet of 14 major warships, including nine Arleigh Burke-class destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Meanwhile, 12 U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighters) touched down at Ovda Airbase in southern Israel. 
https://www.foxnews.com/category/us/military/air-force
 
As national security analyst Joe Funderburke noted in the Small Wars Journal, "The F-22 is not a simple show-of-force aircraft. It is designed to suppress enemy air defenses and protect penetrating strike platforms like the B-2 Spirit bomber, the same combination used to devastate Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz nine months ago."
 
The president’s reminder of Operation Midnight Hammer — which utilized B-2 bombers to drop 30,000-pound "bunker buster" munitions — serves as the tactical blueprint for what follows the current deadline.
 
While the 2025 operation was a "surgical" surprise strike, the current buildup suggests a far broader mission set, potentially due to Iran’s threat of an aggressive response.
Iran’s response to Operation Midnight Hammer was measured and the U.S. had a warning. This time, Iran has vowed a more forceful response and says any U.S. troops operating in the Middle East could be open targets.
 
Amid his sharper diplomatic timeline, Trump also asserted that Iranian authorities had killed some 32,000 protesters in weeks of demonstrations that began in early January — a number far above independent estimates and Tehran’s own death toll.
 
"Just over the last couple of months with the protests, they’ve killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters — 32,000 protesters in their own country," the president said. "They shot them and hung them."
 
Administration officials have signaled that any agreement would require Iran to halt all uranium enrichment and provide verifiable guarantees that its program cannot be reconstituted — terms Iran repeatedly has objected to.
 
Both Washington and Iran appear to believe the other is bluffing.
 
Trump has framed the timeline as a final opportunity for diplomacy backed by overwhelming force. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, have publicly dismissed U.S. threats and warned that any strike would trigger retaliation against American forces and regional allies.
 
U.S. negotiators will meet with Iranian envoys once again in Geneva Thursday.
 
**NOTE: It is highly likely we will see things escalate over the next 24-72 hours.
 
CHINA JAMS STARLINK
 
Service not available. The Philippine Coast Guard accused Chinese forces of jamming the Starlink satellite internet service near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. On Monday, four Philippine patrol vessels and one patrol aircraft were deployed to the shoal to ensure the safety of Philippine fishing boats operating in the area. All the government vessels lost their Starlink connections when they came within 28 miles (45 kilometers) of the shoal. According to the Philippine coast guard, three Chinese coast guard vessels and a Chinese navy warship were seen about 40 miles from the shoal at the time.
 
RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN AFRICA
 
Russian expansion. The Russian Orthodox Church has increased its presence in Africa to more than 250 priests and 371 parishes in 36 countries since 2021 according to the church’s exarch in Africa. Metropolitan Constantine identified Russian-allied countries in the Sahel region, where Russia’s African Corps is active, as strongholds for the church – in addition to Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi and Zambia.
 
U.S. & UZBEKISTAN
 
Central Asian resources.
 
Uzbek Minister of Mining and Geology Bobir Islamov met with representatives of U.S. commodities trading company Traxys Group. They discussed opportunities for investment and cooperation in the mining industry. Last week, Traxys signed an agreement to invest $1 billion in Uzbekistan’s critical minerals sector.
 
DAESH/ISIS
 
AI for bad. Recruits for the Islamic State are being encouraged to use artificial intelligence to assist in their terrorist activities. Suggestions for how to “responsibly” use AI chatbots in religious campaigns or preaching were included in the most recent issue of the English-language Voice of Khorasan magazine, published by the Afghan branch of Islamic State Khorasan. It also warns users against sharing personal information with chatbots that can be traced back to the organization.
 
ARMENIA & AZERBAIJAN
 
Building trust. Azerbaijan is expected to deliver another 4,500 tons of diesel fuel to Armenia by rail on Wednesday. Azerbaijan has been sending oil products to Armenia since December. On Tuesday, the deputy foreign ministers of both countries met instead Geneva, on the sidelines of a U.N. Human Rights Council meeting, to discuss confidence-building measures, half a year after they signed a peace agreement in Washington.
 
INDOPAC
 
Replenishment. The U.S. Department of Defense plans to allocate $850 million to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to replenish weapons provided to Taiwan. Some $152 billion of the funds will come from a reconciliation bill passed last year. The Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, passed in 2022, allowed Washington to provide Taiwan with equipment from the department’s existing stockpiles.
 
GZB INFOCUS: SAFETY TIPS FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL
 
With current events unfolding in parts of Mexico and other parts of the world, I wanted to share a few practical steps you can take to be as prepared as possible if you’re traveling internationally. There's a few things you can do to reduce the risk of danger when traveling.
 
1. Register with the U.S. Government
Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) through the U.S. Department of State. This allows the U.S. Embassy to contact you in case of emergency and provides real-time security updates.
 
2. Monitor Official Guidance
Check the U.S. State Department travel advisory for your destination. Also, monitor local news from reliable sources while you’re there.
 
3. Transportation Planning
• Arrange airport transfers in advance through your hotel or a reputable service.
• Use authorized taxis or rideshare services only.
• Avoid public transportation late at night.
• Do not travel between cities after dark.
 
4. Stay in Secure
Accommodations
Choose well-reviewed hotels or resorts with controlled access and on-site security. Keep doors locked, use hotel safes, and avoid displaying valuables.
 
5. Keep a Low Profile
• Dress modestly and avoid flashy jewelry or expensive watches.
• Do not post real-time location updates on social media.
• Be discreet about cash and electronics in public.
 
6. Emergency Preparedness
• Share your itinerary with a trusted person back home.
• Have copies (digital and printed) of passports and important documents.
• Keep emergency contacts saved offline.
• Know the address and phone number of the nearest U.S. Consulate (most places, like Puerto Vallarta have a U.S. Consular Agency, research before you go).
 
7. Situational Awareness
If something feels off, leave. Avoid large crowds if tensions are elevated. Steer clear of demonstrations or areas with visible police/military activity. Pay attention to what's going on and establish baselines so you'll notice deviations from the norm. Situational awareness will help you avoid many issues before they begin so make sure you are paying attention to your surroundings. Look at maps before you go. Put the phone down as much as you can when you are out in public.
 
8. Medical & Insurance
Ensure you have travel medical insurance that covers evacuation if needed. Know the location of reputable hospitals near your hotel.
 
9. Defensive Tools
Traveling with a firearm to foreign countries is generally off-limits. There are some exceptions, but I wouldn't count on being able to travel with or carry your firearm anywhere. Knives are hit or miss. If you know how to handle a knife, or have some sort of knife fighting training, go to a supermarket or grocery store and purchase a fruit knife or a fillet knife.
 
Making a prison bat or club. Buy about 10 - 15 newspapers and some duct tape or gorilla tape. Take an individual sheet and roll it up as tightly as possible. Place the rolled up page on another sheet of newspaper — repeat. Wrap tightly with tape when finished.
Your best bet is to have some other forms of less-lethal tools like a tactical pen or flashlight. Flashlights are good for their intended use but some also have the ability to be used as a blunt force object as well, but would generally be allowed wherever you go.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 

—END REPORT
 

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February 25, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 25 FEBRUARY 2026
 
ENORMOUS STRIKE PACKAGE AVAILABLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST:**
 
There are 19 U.S. Navy combatants operating in the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean, the U.S. has assembled an extremely large strike package for Iran.
**Iran is continuing to prepare for a potential military conflict with the United States** - Several unspecified Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces units held an exercise on February 24 at the Madinah ol Munawarah Operational Base in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, and on unspecified Persian Gulf islands. Madinah ol Munawarah is located near the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The unspecified islands are presumably the Nazeat Islands, which lie just west of the strait and host IRGC facilities. Several senior Iranian military officials have threatened in recent weeks to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for a US attack on Iran. The IRGC could use the Nazeat Islands to stage operations. AFGS-affiliated media stated that the exercise focused on “shore-to-sea fire” to target enemies that try to approach the coastline. IRGC Ground Forces units practiced using roaming drones to identify targets and Shahed attack drones to hit the targets. Iranian military officials stated that the forces used new missile systems and simulated ”offensive” and ”defensive” electronic warfare (EW) scenarios.
 
**Iran nears deal to buy supersonic anti-ship missiles from China as students protest in Tehran **- Iran is nearing a deal with China to acquire CM-302 anti-ship cruise missiles, according to officials familiar with the negotiations, a move that could significantly enhance Tehran’s maritime strike capabilities amid rising regional tensions. The supersonic system, produced by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, would pose a heightened threat to U.S. naval forces operating near Iran. The talks reportedly accelerated following last year’s Israel-Iran conflict, and coincide with a U.S. naval buildup ordered by President Trump. The prospective transfer would underscore deepening military ties between Tehran and Beijing despite international sanctions constraints. Meanwhile, Iranian students across several universities in Tehran protested for a third day on Monday, burning flags and chanting anti-government slogans.
 
IRAN
 
**Iran Expands Shadow Oil “Trustee” Network as War Fears Grow **-
 
Iran is reportedly relying on opaque “trustees” to sell oil and import goods amid tightening U.S. sanctions and potential war. Officials and former executives told Al Jazeera that billions in proceeds—possibly over $11 billion—have not returned to Iran, with intermediaries accused of using foreign shell companies and bank accounts in the UAE. Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and parliament members warned of widespread graft, while President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered a review. Economists say the system fuels inflation and currency collapse, yet Tehran plans to expand it as provincial governors and importers gain authority to barter oil for essentials.
 
HOUTHIS: YEMEN
 
**Houthis Mobilize Troops Across Yemen as Regional Tensions Rise **-
 
The Houthis have reportedly begun large-scale troop movements across Yemen, deploying reinforcements to Marib, Hodeidah, and border fronts near Saudi Arabia, according to UAE-based Al-Ain media. The mobilization’s objectives remain unclear but may signal preparations for renewed conflict amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions and friction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen policy. Analysts warn the buildup could collapse the fragile UN-brokered truce in place since 2022. The redeployments, led by senior Houthi commanders trained in Sana’a, come as other Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah, consider escalations in response to potential U.S. action against Tehran.
 
BULGARIA
 
**US Air Force Mobilization in Bulgaria Heightens Tension Ahead of Iran Talks **-
 
Bulgaria’s Sofia Airport temporarily suspended civilian flights as multiple U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling aircraft, C-17 and C-130 transports, and troop carriers staged there, fueling speculation of preparations for possible strikes on Iran. Bulgarian officials attributed the closures to maintenance, while confirming American aircraft were supporting NATO vigilance activities. Investigators traced over 120 U.S. warplanes crossing the Atlantic, including F-16s, F-35As, and F-22s. The buildup coincides with renewed nuclear talks, as President Donald Trump warned Tehran to reach a deal within ten days. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group is also moving toward the region.
 
CIA & IRAN
 
**CIA Releases Video in Farsi Guiding Iranians on Secure Contact Methods with the Agency **-
 
The CIA published a video in Persian on Tuesday outlining how Iranian dissidents can securely contact the agency amid renewed anti-government protests. The video provides step-by-step guidance to protect users’ identities, advising them to use a burner device, update their internet browser, and activate incognito mode. It also recommends clearing browsing history after making contact. The agency strongly encourages the use of encryption tools such as Tor or a VPN, warning that without them, visits to the CIA website could be visible to authorities. The CIA says it will review all messages received, though responses are not guaranteed and will depend on an assessment of the sender’s security situation.
 
SYRIA
 
DAESH/ISIS Activity in Syria: The Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) is likely attempting to exploit the conditions created by the Syrian government’s recent offensive to recruit fighters and expand ISIS networks in Syria **- The Islamic State’s (IS) spokesperson Abu Hudhayfa al Ansari declared on February 21 that IS has begun a “new chapter of resistance” in Syria targeting the Syrian government. Abu Hudhayfa’s call for a new ISIS campaign likely encouraged a series of ISIS attacks targeting Syrian government forces in Raqqa and Deir ez Zor provinces. ISIS and ISIS-inspired fighters will likely attempt to conduct further attacks against Syrian government targets in the coming days and weeks.
 
**ISIS Spokesperson Releases Audio Message Calling for Attacks Against the Syrian Government and Praising Recent Acts of Terrorism**-
 
On February 21, ISIS’s spokesperson Abu Hudhayfah Al-Ansari released an official audio address calling for attacks against the Syrian transitional government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and commending lone actor attacks and continued ISIS campaigns throughout Africa. ISIS, via an editorial in its Al-Naba newsletter released on February 19, condemned international borders and what the terrorist organization bemoaned as improper Ramadan celebrations. Also on February 19, ISIS released a video from the group’s West Africa Province in Nigeria, consisting of a speaker describing the idea of hatred of unbelievers and love for coreligionists, including those who have made mistakes in their beliefs.
 
**In First Speech Since March 2024, Islamic State (ISIS) Spokesman Calls For Attacks On 'Crusader And Jewish Targets Everywhere'** - On February 21, 2026, the fourth day of Ramadan according to the Islamic State (ISIS), official ISIS media outlet Al-Furqan released a 35-minute audio message, featuring a speech by ISIS spokesman Abu Hudhayfah Al-Ansari. The message, titled "The Right Course Has Become Distinct from the Wrong" (Quran 2:256), is the first speech by Al-Ansari since March 2024 and only the fourth message the current ISIS spokesman has delivered since August 2023.
 
PIJ
 
**Palestinian Islamic Jihad Expands in West Bank Amid Hamas Weakness** -
 
 
Analysts and former officials say that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is increasingly asserting influence in the northern West Bank, capitalizing on Hamas’s constrained capacity due to Israeli military pressure and its focus on Gaza. Supported more reliably by Iran and unencumbered by governance responsibilities, PIJ is reportedly boosting recruitment through mosque sermons, social media, and alliances with local armed groups, such as Jenin’s Brigade 313. Israel’s counterterror operations have had limited long-term effect, and PIJ’s decentralized structure complicates deterrence. The group’s rise risks prolonging instability, weakening the Palestinian Authority, and expanding Iran’s foothold in the West Bank, potentially requiring sustained Israeli military attention.
 
AI, MDM & FAKE NEWS: CARTEL TOOLS
 
**After killing of top drug lord, cartels use fake news to spread fear in Mexico **-
 
A surge of misinformation has amplified public fear across Mexico following the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. While retaliatory violence included roadblocks and arson, widely shared social media posts falsely depicted airports overrun, aircraft ablaze and tourist centers engulfed in chaos. Researchers assess that cartel linked networks helped disseminate fabricated and AI generated content to exaggerate instability and undermine confidence in the state. Mexican officials, including Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch and President Claudia Sheinbaum, pledged investigations and rapid rebuttals. Analysts warn such information operations complicate crisis response and allow organized crime to reshape the narrative despite tactical government gains.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

—

END REPORT

 

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February 23, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 23 FEBRUARY 2026
 
 
MEXICO
 
• Mexico's most-wanted drug lord "El Mencho" killed: Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was killed in a Mexican military operation. The cartel is heavily linked to fentanyl trafficking. His death has triggered violent backlash, with gunmen torching vehicles, blocking roads, and clashes in several Mexican states. U.S. officials reportedly assisted via joint task forces.
 
IRAN
 
• Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions: President Trump is reportedly considering targeted military strikes against Iran (potentially followed by larger action), with two U.S. aircraft carrier groups positioned nearby. Trump has expressed puzzlement over Iran's refusal to "capitulate." Last-ditch talks are planned in Geneva. U.S. lawmakers are preparing a war powers vote, and officials warn Iran could activate proxies against American targets abroad.
 
UKRAINE
 
• Ukraine conflict updates: Explosions in western Ukraine (Lviv area) killed one police officer and injured ~25 people in what officials describe as a terrorist attack. Russia launched major missile/drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Separately, President Zelensky told the BBC that Putin has "started WW3" and must be stopped, ahead of the four-year mark of the full-scale invasion.
 
PAKISTAN
 
• Pakistan strikes in Afghanistan: Pakistan carried out deadly strikes on militant hideouts across the border in retaliation for recent suicide bombings.
U.S.
 
U.S. Domestic News
 
• Armed intruder shot at Mar-a-Lago: Secret Service and local law enforcement fatally shot a 21-year-old man from North Carolina inside the perimeter of President Trump's Florida estate. He was carrying a shotgun and a gas canister. Trump was in Washington, D.C. at the time.
 
• Major winter storm hitting the Northeast: A powerful nor'easter is bringing heavy snow (up to 2 feet in parts of New York and the region), travel bans (including a full ban in NYC), school closures, and major disruptions to Monday commutes. NJ Transit plans to suspend service.
 
• Supreme Court blocks Trump's earlier tariffs: The Court struck down key aspects of the administration's tariff approach, prompting the EU to insist the U.S. must honor existing trade deals. The administration quickly announced a new global tariff increase (from 10% to 15%) and plans for additional trade investigations to pursue similar goals in a "more durable" way.
 
GZB INFOCUS: HIJRA-IMMIGRATION JIHAD
 
The concept connecting immigration and jihad in Arabic, often interpreted through a security lens as "civilization jihad" or, in some extremist contexts, hijra (migration) as a tool for expansion, links the peaceful, historical Islamic migration (hijra) to a form of struggle (jihad) aimed at influencing new lands.
 
Key aspects include:
 
• Hijra (هجرة): Historically refers to Prophet Muhammad’s migration from Mecca to Medina to escape persecution, establishing the first Islamic state. It is considered a form of worship and a praiseworthy action in the face of oppression.
 
• Jihad (جهاد): Translates to "struggle" or "effort," covering internal, intellectual, and physical forms. While historically defensive, it is often contextually misused to justify aggressive expansion.
 
• The Intersection: The concept often discussed in contemporary political discourse and analysis, suggests a deliberate, strategic migration (hijra) intended to advance Islamic influence or "jihad" in non-Muslim regions.
 
This makes complete sense when the goal of Islam is World Domination. The Ummah, or “Global Caliphate” is the goal.
 
• Misappropriation: Some extremist groups, such as the Islamic State, have Perverted the meaning of hijra, changing it from a peaceful migration to a mandatory relocation for combat.
 
**NOTE: Whatever the original intent or purpose, in modern times, Hijra has cone to mean “Immigration Jihad.”
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
— END REPORT
 

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February 22, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 22 FEBRUARY 2026
 
GRAY ZONE BRIEF 22 FEBRUARY 2026
15 -20,000 DAESH/ISIS FREE IN SYRIA.
 
**US intelligence says at least 15,000 at large after ISIS detention camp collapses in Syria** -
 
U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that 15,000 to 20,000 people, including Islamic State affiliates are now at large in Syria, after an exodus from a camp that held jihadists’ families, U.S. officials familiar with the estimate said. Security experts have long warned that the wives of Islamic State fighters were effectively raising the next generation of militants at the sprawling Al-Hol facility. Security at the camp fell apart in recent weeks after Syria’s government routed the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which had guarded Al-Hol for years, raising concerns about the release of people who might have become radicalized during the years held behind the razor wire.
 
The size of a small city, the camp in Syria’s eastern desert at one point held more than 70,000 people after U.S.-backed forces destroyed what remained of Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria in 2019. At the end of 2025, more than 23,000 people were there, according to a report this week from the Pentagon’s Inspector General. The vast majority have left Al-Hol after the Syrian government took control last month. Western diplomats in Damascus assessed that more than 20,000 people fled the camp in a matter of days earlier amid rioting and a surge of escape attempts. A diplomat following the situation said only 300 to 400 families remained at the beginning of the week. The U.S. assessment attributed the escapes to mismanagement by Syria’s government and a lack of assiduous custody of the camp’s large security perimeter, the U.S. officials said.
 
Ahmad al-Sharaa, aka al-Jolani, the now “President” of Syria and former Al Qaeda militia leader of Al-Nusra Front for 10 years is either allowing this to happen — or f dr identity have the power and capabilities to stop it.
 
Should we trust this terrorist allegedly turned statesman?
 
I certainly don’t trust him. I don’t care if the CIA or Trump admin. thinks he’s our man and we bought him off, once AQ, aways AQ.
 
I believe it’s important to know Islamic eschatology when it comes to all things Syria.
 
This is where the “Army of the Mahdi” will come from in their belief system. From the White Mosque, specifucally "Minaret of Jesus" in the southeast corner. It doesn’t matter if we believe it or not, it doesn’t matter if all Muslims believe it or not, it only matters if the extremists believe it — because they drive the agenda — and we should believe and anticipate that they are willing to do whatever is necessary In fulfilling any and all Islamic prophecy.
 
In Islamic eschatology, the prophecy involving a "white mosque" and the Mahdi’s army primarily centers on the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and the arrival of Isa (Jesus) to support the Mahdi.
 
The White Mosque & Minaret Prophecy
 
The Descent of Jesus: A widely cited Sahih Muslim hadith states that Jesus will descend from the heavens at the White Minaret (often referred to as the "Minaret of Jesus") located on the eastern side of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus.
 
The Mahdi’s Presence: Upon his descent, Jesus will find the Mahdi and his army preparing for prayer. The Mahdi will offer to let Jesus lead, but Jesus will decline, praying behind the Mahdi as a sign of the Mahdi’s leadership of the Muslim Ummah.
Ahmadiyya Interpretation: The Ahmadiyya community views this symbolically and has built a literal White Minaret in Qadian, India, to represent the fulfillment of this prophecy through their founder, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad
 
In the Gathering Storm Report and AQ 2.0 it shows the alliances of AQ, Daesh/ISIS, the Haqqani Network and the Taliban, as well as hundreds of other factions, all starting to form an alliance despite their specific views of whose brand of Islam is the most correct. The are quietly forming the “Army of the Mahdi, the Islamic Brotherhood. I believe that should not be overlooked. As we see unrest in the EU, Italy, Germany, France & the U.K., as we see the Azan bring played in NYC at 0500 in the morning, and highway signs in Arabic in Michigan, we can ignore this to our own demise — or recognize it for what is really is. The process and the attempt of fulfilling the prophecy of forming the Ummah — Islamic World Caliphate & Domination.
 
Sleeper cells and active terror cells in the U.S. you should be aware of:
 
Unit 910 IRGC (Iranian) and Hizbollah (Lebanese) terror cells in the U.S.
 
Other Related Units: Other designated units involved in Iranian intelligence activities include:
 
Unit 840: A secretive special operations unit within the IRGC-QF responsible for plotting against foreign targets.
 
Department 40: A cyber counterintelligence unit of the IRGC involved in surveillance and intelligence gathering.
 
Unit 11,000: A Quds Force unit focused on targeting Israeli/Jewish locations, often outsourcing to local criminals.
 
764 SATANIST PEDOPHILE GROUP ASSOCIATED WITH ROBLOX GAME CONTENT FOR KIDS
 
The "764" group is a decentralized, international, and "nihilistic violent extremist" (NVE) network that targets children and teenagers (typically ages 10-17) online to manipulate, extort, and coerce them into self-harm, animal cruelty, and the production of child sexual abuse material (CSAM).
 
The FBI (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-12-15/violent-online-groups-like-764-are-threatening-teen-lives-heres-how-to-protect-your-kid) considers 764 an "emerging threat" and a "modern-day terrorism" organization that utilizes "swatting" (false 911 calls) and blackmail to control victims.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORT
 

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February 21, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 21 FEBRUARY 2026
 
AMERIKASTAN
 
New Yorkistan Caliphate
 
New Yorkers Wake to the Islamic Call to Prayer**- The Islamic call to prayer (Adhan) is being amplified louder and more aggressively - starting as early as 5 AM - invading homes, neighborhoods, and the once-proud skyline where thousands were murdered on 9/11 in Islam's name. The blaring Adhan dominates the streets, forcing every resident - Christian, Jewish, atheist - to hear the declaration of Islamic supremacy multiple times a day. Under Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani, the adhan — the first call to prayer at 5 a.m. — is now being amplified electronically, so that its sound carries across New York City just before dawn. Many people object to being awakened so early. Their objection has nothing to do with a particular animus toward Islam; they would be as upset if the Jewish shema were shouted across the city, or if the sound of church bells were to be electronically amplified, and inflicted on sleeping New Yorkers as early as 5 a.m.
 
**NOTE: Adhan and Azan refer to the exact same thing: the Islamic call to prayer recited five times daily by a muezzin to announce the start of Salah. "Adhan" is the precise Arabic transliteration, while "Azan" is the commonly used pronunciation in South Asia (Urdu, Hindi, Persian) and Turkey (Ezan).
 
Key Details Regarding Adhan/Azan:
 
• Purpose: It is a public announcement signaling that prayer time has begun and calling believers to the mosque.
 
• Meaning: Rooted in Arabic, Adhan means "to listen, to hear, be informed".
 
• Content: It includes declaring the greatness of Allah, the testimony of faith, and the call to success/prayer.
 
• Variations: While the core message is the same, there are minor variations in phrasing between Sunni and Shia traditions (e.g., in the morning Adhan or specific phrases like "Hayya ala Khair al-Amal").
 
• Adhan vs. Iqama: The Adhan is the initial call to prayer, while the Iqama is the shorter, faster announcement made just before the prayer starts inside the mosque.
 
• Mosque vs. Masjid
 
The most common and accurate alternative name for a mosque is masjid (also spelled masjeed or musjid), which is the Arabic term for a place of prostration. Other terms include house of worship, house of God, musalla(prayer room), or Islamic center.
You better learn this now — so you understand how your country is being overtly taken over by Islam — right in front of your eyes.
 
Detroitistan Caliphate
 
Detroit Tigers offer Ramadan greetings, say nothing about Lent** - The Detroit Tigers recognize which group is in the driver’s seat in the Detroit area today. But are Muslims really likely to form a significant part of the Tigers’ fanbase? It could theoretically happen, as sports are not forbidden in Islam as long as the Muslim sports fan doesn’t get too carried away and idolize players or teams. It seems unlikely, however, since most Muslims in the Detroit area are from areas of the world that don’t play baseball. At the same time, is it wise for the Tigers to ignore their non-Muslim fanbase and take it for granted? Wise or not, it’s happening.
 
AL QAEDA IN AFGHANISTAN
 
Al-Qaeda still under 'patronage' of Taliban as UN team warns of 'multipolar' global jihad threat** - Al-Qaeda continues to enjoy the “patronage” of the Taliban despite the theocratic group's claims that there are no terrorist groups in Afghanistan, a specialized United Nations team assessed, with the new UN report warning about a “multipolar” threat posed by jihadist groups worldwide. The UN ​​Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team released a new February report on Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other jihadist groups. The UN sanctions monitoring team said that “the Afghan de facto authorities” — the Taliban — “claimed that there were no terrorist groups within its borders,” but the UN experts stressed that “no Member State supported this view.”
 
DAESH/ISIS IN AFRICA (ISWAP)
 
**IS West Africa Province (ISWAP)**:
 
In February 2026, ISWAP released videos and messages encouraging Muslims worldwide to support ISIS fighters in their struggle against what they define as the "nation of disbelief," reinforcing their role as a critical node in the global ISIS network.In the video which has since gone viral, one of the leaders of the groups who spoke in Hausa, boasted that the terrorists have all it takes to wage a jihad war in the country. With chants of “Allahu Akbar” (Allah is the greatest) in the background with the camera panning across rows of rifles, ammunition boxes, and heavy weapons, the narrator boasted that very soon, Nigeria will become an Islamic state. “Look at the weapons of the mujahideen. These are AK-47s, so many of them, with plenty of ammunition,” he boasted. “We also have anti-aircraft guns. We got them from Nigerian soldiers and from Libya. We are ready for jihad. We will not stop until we establish the Islamic State.”While he spoke, the video showed numerous assault rifles, belt-fed machine guns, and anti-aircraft weapons laid out on the floor, suggesting a significant stockpile. Another fighter who also spoke in the same vein, claimed the weapons are fully operational and urging others to join their cause. “These weapons are clean and in perfect condition. We are prepared to fight the infidels. Allah is with us. Brothers, join the jihad.” The video ended with more chantings of “Allahu Akbar” and a declaration that “Victory belongs to Allah,” while fighters continued displaying their weapons.
 
HOUTHIS REACT TO U.S. - IRAN TENSION
 
**Houthi Threats and U.S.-Iran Tensions Raise Ramadan Fears in Yemen **-
 
As Ramadan begins, residents of Sanaa fear renewed violence amid rising tensions between the Houthi movement, the United States, and Iran. Houthi leaders vowed to strike if Washington attacks Tehran, recalling last year’s U.S.-led “Operation Rough Rider,” which killed more than 200 civilians. Analysts warn Houthi alignment with Iran could invite renewed airstrikes and a broader regional war. Civilians in northern Yemen, still rebuilding from years of conflict, say they are fasting “from fear and grief,” not just food. UN envoy Hans Grundberg urged renewed peace talks, warning that without a comprehensive settlement, Yemen’s fragile stability could collapse once more.
 
**NOTE: Striking Iran during Ramadan (which lasts until March 15 - the Ides of March) could galvanize Muslims and potentially lead to terror strikes against US interests — which will likely occur anyway. However, we shouldn’t ignore the facts of all the Christmas Market attacks by Terrorists and the fact that the October 7th attack by Hamas and other Jihadist Terrorist entities, was committed on a Jewish religious holiday.
 
The October 7, 2023, attack occurred during the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah. In Israel, this day coincides with Shemini Atzeret.
 
The timing was particularly significant for several reasons:
 
• Nature of the Holiday: Simchat Torah is typically one of the most joyous days in the Jewish calendar, marked by dancing and singing to celebrate the completion of the annual Torah reading cycle.
 
• Shabbat: The attack also took place on Shabbat (the Sabbath), a weekly day of rest.
 
• Historical Context: The date was almost exactly 50 years after the start of the Yom Kippur War, which began on October 6, 1973, with another surprise attack on a major Jewish holiday.
 
Because the attack happened on this specific holiday, it is often referred to in Israel as the "Simchat Torah Massacre.”
 
TELEGRAM & WHATSAPP FOREIGN SPIES
 
Deliberate Fabrication’: Telegram Denies Foreign Spys Can See Messages Russian Soldiers Send** - Telegram has denied claims by Russia’s Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev that foreign intelligence services can see messages sent by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, as authorities continue tightening restrictions on the popular messaging app. “No breaches of Telegram’s encryption have ever been found… The Russian government’s allegation that our encryption has been compromised is a deliberate fabrication,” Telegram told Reuters on Thursday. On Wednesday, Shadayev told State Duma lawmakers there is “ample evidence” that covert access to Telegram messages was used in combat operations against Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. He did not specify which country’s intelligence services were involved. Shadayev spoke after public uproar over state media regulator Roskomnadzor announcing new restrictions on Telegram last week.
 
Roskomnadzor accused Telegram of failing to combat fraud and to protect the personal data of its users, while Shadayev said the company ignored 150,000 government requests to remove banned content, including child pornography. Telegram said the new curbs were “intended to justify outlawing Telegram and forcing citizens on to a state-controlled messaging platform engineered for mass surveillance and censorship.” The company was referring to Max, Russia’s government-backed messenger. WhatsApp, with more than 100 million users in Russia, made similar accusations last week after the Kremlin confirmed that Roskomnadzor was blocking the messaging app.
 
INDIA NEW GAI HUB?
 
Modi Pitches India as Global Artificial Intelligence Hub at New Delhi Summit **- At the India AI Impact Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi positioned India as a central player in the global artificial intelligence ecosystem, urging nations to “design and develop in India, deliver to the world.” Joined by France’s Emmanuel Macron, the UN’s António Guterres, and major tech leaders, Modi called for democratizing AI and bridging the Global South’s access gap. Guterres proposed a $3 billion global fund for inclusive AI, while OpenAI’s Sam Altman announced a partnership with Tata Group. Despite India’s vast digital base and growing investment pledges from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, experts caution it still lags the U.S. and China in AI capacity.
 
GOLDEN DOME & THE MOON
 
**SpaceX and Blue Origin abruptly shift priorities amid U.S. Golden Dome push **-
 
SpaceX and Blue Origin have rapidly shifted their focus toward the moon, a reversal that may be driven by Pentagon priorities as much as exploration. SpaceX redirected plans from Mars to lunar development, while Blue Origin paused its New Shepard tourism program to prioritize the moon. These moves coincide with the Defense Department’s Golden Dome missile shield initiative, which calls for a missile detection prototype by 2028. Lunar-based infrastructure could offer a more resilient platform for surveillance and communications, beyond the reach of most anti-satellite weapons. Both companies are positioned to support Pentagon contracts for satellites, landers, and orbital systems that could enhance national missile defense and global monitoring capabilities.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORTS
 

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February 20, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 20 FEBRUARY 2026
 
U.S. – IRAN
 
Escalation. Israeli security agencies have been placed on high alert amid reports that the U.S. is preparing to launch an attack on Iran. According to Israeli media, signs indicate Israel would participate in the airstrikes, with action potentially coming within days. Possible targets for an attack include facilities used by Iran’s ballistic missile program and institutions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On Wednesday, Iran issued a notice to air traffic controllers of planned missile launch exercises on Thursday in the country’s southern regions.
 
***NOTE: GZB predicts that a strike on Iran is highly likely this weekend. If the U.S. strikes Iran, they will likely be surgical strikes on regime leadership, nuclear and missile facilities, naval assets and ports, IRGC army bases, IRGC intelligence, communications, air assets and airstrips, as well as other relevant targets and IRGC government buildings.
 
RUSSIA & IRAN
 
More drills. Relatedly, Russia and Iran conducted naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. Sailors from both countries practiced joint operations to free a vessel seized by “pirates,” and special operations forces practiced storming a ship and rescuing the crew.
 
U.S. & DRC: TANTALUM
 
New offer. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has added the Rubaya coltan mine to a list of assets it is offering the U.S. access to under a proposed minerals cooperation partnership, according to Reuters. The mine has been under the control of M23 rebels since 2024. It accounts for roughly 15 percent of global supplies of tantalum, a mineral used in both consumer and military electronics.
 
RUSSIA & IRAQ
 
Russian recruitment. Iraq is considering new measures to block recruitment of Iraqis into the Russian army amid Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. The plan, proposed by a committee formed in January to halt enlistment of Iraqi citizens into the Russian military, would criminalize joining or facilitating the joining of foreign armed forces. According to Iraqi officials, roughly 5,000 Iraqi citizens have joined the Russian military, attracted by promises of high pay or Russian citizenship.
 
NEW ROCKETS FOR THE HERMIT KINGDOM
 
Showing off. North Korea displayed its 600 mm multiple rocket launchers during a ceremony in Pyongyang attended by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The launchers have a range of about 400 kilometers (250 miles) and could now be ready for field deployment, after being tested in January. The ceremony took place ahead of a party congress during which Kim has vowed to unveil the country’s new defense capabilities.
 
U.S. TOTAL WITHDRAWAL FROM SYRIA
 
Winding down. The United States will completely withdraw its approximately 1,000 troops from Syria, ending a decadelong military presence aimed at combating the Islamic State. The withdrawal has already begun, with troops having left key strongholds in the northeast and along the Jordanian and Iraqi borders. The remaining soldiers will leave the country within two months.
 
U.S. & UZBEKISTAN: CRITICAL MINERALS
 
Central Asia investment. The United States and Uzbekistan signed a range of economic agreements during Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s visit to Washington. The main deal concerns the use of U.S. technologies in strategic areas of the Uzbek economy, including exploration, production and supply of critical minerals, as well as the petrochemical industry. The U.S. Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation will provide financial support for the projects.
 
THE EU & NUKES
 
Condemnation. Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken rebuked. European leaders for openly discussing nuclear deterrence. Francken said on X that Europe's top officials should "keep their mouths shut" when it comes to their countries’ nuclear strategies. He made the comments after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a recent interview rejected the possibility of Germany developing its own nuclear deterrent but suggested German fighter jets could carry French or British nuclear weapons.
 
U.S. FAR LEFT INDOCTRINATION
 
**Far-left activists radicalizing high school kids to take on ICE as young suspects in agent attack pictured** -
 
Far-left activists are radicalizing high school students to take on ICE as cops hunt two youngsters who attacked a federal officer, the California Post can reveal. ‘Dare To Struggle SoCal’ is urging children to skip class and “rebel against” agents across major West Coast cities. It comes a day after an ICE worker was hit by a rock and rushed to hospital when officers faced off against up to 500 teenagers outside Los Angeles Metropolitan Detention Center. Dare To Struggle SoCal says its aim is to crush ICE and end mass deportations across the US by radical action in Southern California, the Post has learned. Masterminds have mobilized across social media, with pamphlets being shared calling for help to “melt ICE” and “smash the mass deportation machine.” California State Superintendent candidate Sonja Shaw claimed the teacher unions were also involved with the plot and slammed the use of kids as “pawns.”
 
**NOTE: ** This is an example of how asymmetric warfare contributes to terror activities. Also note the lack of reporting on this across other media.
 
U.S. DECISION MAKING
 
**Confidence, Interoperability, and the Limits of U.S. Decision Systems**
 
The United States is losing cognitive advantage not because it lacks data or expertise, but because it lacks decision-making architecture that reliably learns, calibrates confidence, and adapts in complex environments. Masoud Andarabi, former Minister of Interior of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, contends that in Gray Zone conflicts, U.S. institutions routinely project high confidence that is structurally miscalibrated, as seen in Afghanistan and echoed in domestic governance reforms. Without systems that integrate feedback, track failed assumptions, and ask the right questions about influence and legitimacy, confidence becomes an illusion rather than a strategic asset.
 
MENTOCIDE: MIND RAPE
 
**War on Minds: Artificial Intelligence and the Information Environment** -
 
The use of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the information environment to such an extent that the various social, cultural, linguistic, and psychological inputs that humans use to make sense of what they see and subsequently act upon have become increasingly synthetic, AI-generated, or edited, and bot-disseminated. A crisis in authenticity in which internet users are increasingly unable to discern the source of a piece of content, nor its integrity or veracity, is having unprecedented ramifications, including in the security and geopolitical domains. The overarching effect of an information environment in which it is almost impossible to discern the authenticity and veracity of content is not just an issue of the spread of false narratives. It indicates something more profoundly about how states and non-state actors seek to interfere: while AI-facilitated information operations can serve to push specific narratives, they also cause the ideal, chaotic, and unintelligent environment to confuse people to such an extent that they do not believe anything anymore, regardless of source.
 
GZB INFOCUS: U.S. - CHINA RELATIONS
 
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was discussing the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with his Chinese counterpart, a very strategically telling development in U.S.-China relations. The statement suggests that the supply of U.S. weapons to Taiwan, long handled as routine bureaucratic transfers under the Taiwan Relations Act, may now be subject to top-level negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Emphasizing his “good relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said a decision on arms sales would come “pretty soon.”
 
For decades, China has attempted to make the U.S.-Taiwan security relationship part of its own bilateral negotiations with the United States. Beijing has repeatedly warned that U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan must be handled “with prudence,” and in recent weeks, it has mentioned previous American approvals – such as the $11 billion package authorized in December – as justification for large-scale Chinese military drills around the self-ruled island. Amid reports that Washington is considering a new and potentially larger package for Taiwan, the message from Beijing is clear: Delay or downsize the potential arms sale, or efforts to stabilize U.S.-China relations will suffer.
 
The White House is taking China’s warning seriously. As the costs of unmanaged escalation continue to rise, both sides are increasingly convinced that some form of accommodation is necessary. In Washington, lawmakers from Trump’s Republican Party are concerned that the combination of tariff disruptions, market volatility and supply chain fragility from trade tensions with Beijing could cost them in November midterm elections. For Beijing, slower growth, persistent distress in the real estate sector, demographic headwinds and shaky investor sentiment have restricted the government’s room to maneuver. Stabilizing relations with the U.S. is therefore not just desirable but critical to sparking a much-needed economic rebound. Thus, the mutual need for predictability has begun to outweigh the (mostly symbolic) gains of continued confrontation.
 
The current state of play could be characterized as a fragile trade truce. Last week, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed for the first time in months that economic and trade teams from both countries were engaged in sustained dialogue at multiple levels. Around the same time, senior U.S. Treasury officials traveled to China to prepare for the next round of high-level talks, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng serving as principal negotiators. The likely outcome of these engagements is not a major reset of the relationship but rather a series of tactical agreements: agricultural purchases, limited tariff adjustments, selective regulatory concessions and reaffirmations of “mutual respect.” For now, stability is the name of the game, especially with Trump planning to visit China in April.
 
The Taiwan Question:
 
Still, even as economic channels reopen, the Taiwan question remains the main geopolitical obstacle to lasting rapprochement. For Beijing, Taiwan is connected to sovereignty, regime legitimacy (which is especially significant in times of economic strain) and the long-standing narrative of national rejuvenation. For Washington, the island represents credibility, deterrence and the defense of a democratic partner.
 
Therefore, any U.S.-China accommodation needs to include some sort of understanding regarding Taiwan, even if no formal agreement is signed. Strategic ambiguity has long proved to be functional – it allowed Washington to support Taiwan without formally recognizing independence, and also let Beijing postpone forcible reunification while maintaining pressure on the island. However, the increase in Chinese military signaling – air incursions, naval patrols and exercises – suggests that ambiguity and the current fragile status quo alone may no longer provide sufficient stability. The pending arms sales decision therefore serves as a test case for how deterrence will be recalibrated within a framework of renewed dialogue.
 
Taiwan’s domestic political situation adds another element of complexity. President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost control of the legislature in the 2024 elections, leaving the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party with procedural leverage. The repeated blocking of Lai’s $39.5 billion special defense budget has become a symbol of this divided government. Although Taiwan has the fiscal capacity to fund the package – supported by a strong credit rating, prudent fiscal management and even recent tax surpluses – the issue lies in mistrust between the two main parties and legislative maneuvering. The opposition has argued for scaling back or restructuring the plan, while the DPP considers it essential for asymmetric deterrence and alignment with U.S. security expectations. Polls indicate that a majority of citizens view the obstruction unfavorably, but public dissatisfaction has not translated into legislative compromise.
 
The intragovernmental discord does not end there. After Lai’s Cabinet refused to sign a bill that would allocate a greater share of tax revenues to local governments, the opposition initiated impeachment proceedings against Lai despite lacking the supermajority required for success, reflecting a strategy of sustained political pressure.
 
Constitutional obstacles make Lai’s removal highly unlikely, but the process itself reinforces an image of institutional gridlock. At a time when Beijing continues military pressure and Washington is recalibrating its diplomatic approach, this paralysis can be strategically damaging. It raises questions both within the country and internationally about Taiwan’s ability to reach some kind of consensus between the leadership and the opposition in the face of an external threat. Even more important, it heightens public anxiety that Taiwan’s future could be influenced by great-power bargaining taking place above its head.
 
Simultaneously, the KMT’s engagement with Beijing has intensified. The revival of the KMT-Chinese Communist Party forum after a decade and reaffirmation of the “1992 Consensus” (a framework formulated between the People’s Republic of China and the then-KMT-led Taiwan to manage cross-strait relations) highlight alternative channels of cross-strait communication that bypass the DPP-led government. Beijing is likely to leverage these ties to signal that cooperation – and perhaps deescalation – is easier under KMT leadership. At the same time, KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun has been invited to visit the U.S., positioning her as a potential intermediary between both capitals. For the KMT, this approach offers the possibility of reducing miscalculation, yet it also fuels domestic fears of overly accommodating Beijing.
 
Accommodation between the U.S. and China is possible regardless of which party is ruling in Taiwan. The difference between a DPP- and KMT-led government lies mainly in tone and execution. A DPP administration prioritizes deterrence and sovereignty, aligning closely with traditional U.S. security logic but also risking conflict if Washington seeks trade concessions with Beijing. In contrast, a KMT administration emphasizes engagement and economic integration with China, potentially lowering immediate tensions but likely also raising some concerns about strategic vulnerability. Taiwan’s electorate, which largely favors maintaining the status quo, remains wary of both extremes.
 
Taiwan’s Immediate Future:
 
Trump’s arms sales decision will serve as an early but significant indicator of how far Washington and Beijing are willing to go in balancing deterrence with diplomatic stabilization. Any understanding on Taiwan will almost certainly remain tacit, for now demonstrated only by calibrated weapons transfers and moderated military signaling rather than formal commitments. Over the coming months, the Taiwan issue will likely be subsumed into a renewed great-power understanding.
 
If the two sides continue moving toward rapprochement through economic and diplomatic channels, as a major step in the Taiwan issue, they may reach a tacit agreement to avoid dramatic moves that alter the status quo. Washington would maintain arms support at a lower level sufficient for deterrence but tailored to avoid overt provocation, while Beijing would continue applying pressure but take it to a lower level to avoid escalation. That kind of balance would not eliminate tension, but it could reduce the probability of miscalculation. For now, the weight of mutual economic dependence and political calculation suggests that both Washington and Beijing are moving, cautiously but deliberately, toward stabilization.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be prepared to respond and recover.
 
No One Is Coming. It’s Up To Us.
 
 
—END REPORT
 
 

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February 19, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 19 FEBRUARY 2026
 
GRINCH PAYS MILLIONS OF EUROS — ALLOWED TO LEAVE FRANCE
 
**Suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker GRINCH allowed to leave France after paying fine **-
 
France has released the seized oil tanker GRINCH after its owner paid a penalty worth several million euros, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot announced on Tuesday. The vessel was detained in the Mediterranean last month on suspicion of operating within Russia’s so-called shadow fleet used to bypass European sanctions. It had departed from Murmansk flying a Comoros flag and was diverted to anchor near Marseille. French authorities cited irregularities related to the ship’s flag registration, underscoring enforcement efforts aimed at curbing sanctioned Russian oil exports.
 
RUSSIAN NAVY THREATS, REAL OR JUST LIP SERVICE?
 
**Putin ally hints at navy deployment to stop European powers from seizing Russian vessels **-
 
Senior Kremlin aide Nikolai Patrushev has warned that Russia could deploy its navy to protect its vessels and retaliate against European shipping if Western powers seize Russian ships amid ongoing sanctions and efforts to curb oil exports. He singled out Britain, France and the Baltic states and accused Western nations of escalating “gunboat diplomacy.” Patrushev, chairman of Russia's Maritime Board, added that “substantial forces must be permanently deployed - forces capable of cooling the ardour of Western pirates.” He claimed NATO plans to blockade Kaliningrad and threatened that, if diplomatic solutions fail, the Russian Navy would break any blockade and respond militarily. His remarks reflect rising maritime friction tied to sanctions enforcement and control of shipping routes.
 
CROATIA REJECTS RUSSIAN OIL VIA HUNGARY & SLOVAKIA
 
**Croatia rejects transporting Russian oil to Hungary, Slovakia as flows via Ukraine halted **-
 
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Susnjar said the country has rejected a request from Hungary and Slovakia to transport Russian crude via the Adria pipeline, citing energy security and compliance with EU and U.S. sanctions rules. The move follows disruptions to flows through the Druzhba pipeline via Ukraine, which Kyiv attributes to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Hungarian officials accused Ukraine of politically motivated interference, while Croatian authorities argued continued reliance on Russian oil funds Moscow’s war. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Russia’s invasion undermined its reliability as an energy supplier.
 
NUKES IN ESTONIA
 
Nuclear Baltics. Estonia is prepared to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory if NATO deems it necessary, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said He made the statement following the Polish president’s comments over the weekend that his country should begin to develop its own “nuclear potential.”
 
U.S. PRESSURE ON IRAN
 
**U.S. increases military pressure on Iran ahead of high-stakes talks** -
 
The United States is continuing to expand air and naval deployments in the Middle East ahead of nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva, signaling both deterrence and potential strike options. Additional fighter jets, refueling aircraft and air defense systems have been repositioned, while the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is en route to the region. Satellite imagery examined by BBC Verify confirms that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, the flagship of the Navy’s Carrier Strike Group Three, is operating in the Arabian Sea, approximately 150 miles off Oman. And since Jan. 25, a dozen American F-15 attack planes have been positioned at Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. President Trump has warned of military action if negotiations fail, though officials acknowledge uncertainty over post-regime scenarios. Regional allies urge restraint as diplomatic efforts continue.
 
IRANIAN NAVAL DRILLS
 
**Iran launches naval drills as tensions with U.S. rise** -
 
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards began large-scale naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, signaling heightened tensions a day before planned U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva. The exercises, overseen by Major General Mohammad Pakpour, were described as testing “operational preparedness” amid U.S. deployments of two carrier strike groups to the region. Tehran warned that any attack would trigger regional conflict, while reiterating it will not negotiate over its missile program or regional activities. The timing underscores the fragile backdrop to renewed diplomatic efforts mediated by Oman.
 
CHINA NUCLEAR TEST
 
**U.S. reveals new details of alleged Chinese nuclear test** -
 
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw told the Hudson Institute that seismic data indicate China conducted an underground nuclear test at the Lop Nor test grounds on June 22, 2020. He cited a magnitude 2.75 signal detected by an isolated seismic station in Kazakhstan and assessed it was consistent with a decoupled explosion. “There is very little possibility I would say that it is anything but an explosion," he said on Tuesday. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization said data were insufficient to confirm a nuclear event, noting the signals were below detection thresholds, according to Executive Secretary Robert Floyd. Beijing, through an embassy spokesperson, rejected the allegation as political, while the Kremlin asserted on Wednesday that neither China nor Russia have conducted secret nuclear tests. President Trump has urged China to join arms control talks after the expiration of New START.
 
CHINESE SUBMARINES
 
**China is building submarines faster than ever, think tank says. Why that’s a problem for Washington** -
 
A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies says China has accelerated production of nuclear powered submarines, launching 10 boats from 2021 to 2025 compared with seven by the United States. While Washington retains a larger operational fleet, including 65 submarines overall, Beijing is narrowing the gap with new ballistic missile and guided missile platforms built at expanded shipyards. U.S. construction delays and a projected dip in attack submarine numbers could strain deterrence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, even as analysts assess Chinese submarines as technologically behind and likely less quiet than their American counterparts.
 
U.S. SURVEILLANCE OF CHINA
 
**U.S. MQ-9 Drone Deployments Heighten Surveillance Pressure on China **-
 
The expanding presence of U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones across the Indo-Pacific is intensifying Beijing’s need to strengthen counter-reconnaissance capabilities, analysts say. The unmanned platforms, capable of high-altitude reconnaissance and strikes, are stationed in South Korea, the Philippines, and Okinawa, while allied nations, including Japan, Taiwan, and India, are acquiring or expanding their MQ-9 fleets. Experts note the drones’ long endurance, satellite links, and interoperability create a networked intelligence system along the first island chain. Chinese analysts acknowledge the PLA has tools such as air-defence missiles, jamming, and domestic drones to counter the MQ-9, but managing surveillance without escalating tensions remains a central challenge.
 
CUBA
 
**How Cuba's Infrastructure Crisis Is Opening the Door to Foreign Intelligence Networks** -
 
Cuba’s deepening energy collapse has become a serious U.S. national security vulnerability, not just an economic crisis. As blackouts worsen and oil supplies dry up, Havana is growing increasingly dependent on Chinese and Russian technical assistance. Beijing and Moscow are exploiting this dependence to expand intelligence, surveillance, and cyber capabilities just 90 miles from the United States, creating long-lasting strategic risks that could persist even if Cuba’s power crisis eventually eases.
Long-time allies. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Following their meeting, Lavrov called on the U.S. for the “deterioration of the international order.”
 
RULES BASED ORDER DOUBT
 
**What is the 'rules-based order' and can it survive? **-
 
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz have each cast doubt on the durability of the “rules-based international order,” the post-1945 system anchored by the United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently argued the framework has been applied inconsistently, asserting that “the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient” and that “trade rules were enforced asymmetrically.” Analysts say the order has been weakened by policy choices in Washington under President Trump and in Moscow under leader Vladimir Putin. Experts warn the transition could yield a less liberal, more fragmented global system marked by heightened geopolitical competition and increased risk of conflict.
 
SURVEY: EUROPEANS READY YO EMBRACE DICTATORSHIP & TRADE FREEDOMS FOR ORDER
 
Attitudes on democracy. Citizens across five European countries seem dissatisfied with how democracy is functioning in their nations, according to a new survey. Some 76 percent of respondents in Greece, 68 percent in France, 66 percent in Romania, 42 percent in the U.K. and 32 percent in Sweden said they were unhappy with the state of democracy in their country. Some 22 percent in all five countries believed dictatorship could be preferable to democracy in certain circumstances. In addition, 26 percent said they would be willing to have their democratic rights limited if a “capable and effective leader” were in charge, while 69 percent of people rejected the notion.
 
DAESH/ISIS
 
**ISIS Weekly Newsletter Editorial Condemns Syrian Government and Article Celebrates Killing of Shiites and February 6 Mosque Attack in Islamabad, Pakistan** -
 
ISIS, in its editorial in issue 534 of the weekly newsletter Al-Naba, released on February 12, condemned the Syrian transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. The editorial stated that the current Syrian government supports democracy, secular law, and nationalism. ISIS claims this is contrary to the concept of the victorious group that will avoid hell by following the correct religious path, which entails uniting its followers, being firmly rooted in religion, and instituting religious law. The editorial claimed that the chosen group will fight the Antichrist in the end times. The section claimed that al-Sharaa and his associates have fooled Syrians into thinking that they are pious and will institute religious law, but that this is a trick. The editorial noted that those who refer to ISIS as Kharijites (7th-century breakaway religious extremists) are themselves allied with the crusader West.
 
The two sides are
PRO-ISIS ONLINE CHATROOM
 
**New Pro-ISIS Online Chatroom Administrator Posts Explosives Instructions**-
 
On February 9, the administrator of a new pro-ISIS chatroom on the RocketChat platform posted two sets of instructions for the synthesis of explosives. The channel, created on February 8, provides information useful for committing acts of terrorism and advocates lone actor attacks worldwide. On February 8, the channel posted advice for using a firearm and information on mortars.
 
DAESH/ISIS ATTACKS
 
**Roundup of Claimed ISIS Attacks**-
 
Between February 8 and 14, ISIS claimed credit for 28 attacks. 13 attacks occurred in Nigeria; eight in the Democratic Republic of the Congo; three in Mozambique; two in Burkina Faso; and one each in Cameroon and Niger. ISIS claimed to have killed 41 members of al-Qaeda in two attacks in Burkina Faso on February 11 and February 14.
 
AQ ATTACKS
 
Al-Qaeda Affiliate Al-Shabab Claims Killing Two 'Western Officers' Operating Suicide Drones In Ambush Of Joint U.S.-Somali Forces In Southern Somalia- On February 10, 2026, the Shahada News Agency, the media arm of Al-Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabab Al-Mujahideen (Al-Shabab), reported that Al-Shabab operatives countered an attack launched by U.S. forces, Somali Special Forces, and government-affiliated militias, supported by U.S. air cover, in Barsanguni, on the outskirts of Kismayo District, in southern Somalia's Lower Juba region. The statement claimed that 32 soldiers of the joint force were killed including seven officers, while others were injured, and weapons and military equipment were seized. On February 12, Shahada updated that according to military sources, two Western officers in charge of suicide drone operation were killed in the counteroffensive, claiming that one was killed at the scene of the clash, while the other died later from his wounds.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

—END REPORT

 

See More

February 17, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 17 FEBRUARY 2026
 
GLOBAL REPORTING
 
U.S. UNEXPLODED ORDINANCE IN IRAN
 
**Strategic Fumble: How a U.S. Dud Bomb May Have Delivered Iran the Keys to Israel’s Underground Fortresses** -
 
In the chaotic aftermath of the June 2025 U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, a single unexploded ordnance has emerged as a geopolitical game-changer. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, ‘unexploded bombs remain at nuclear facilities struck by the United States during the June 2025 war, creating safety concerns that must be addressed before international inspections can proceed’ . Among these failed munitions, reports indicate, was at least one GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound bunker buster bomb designed to destroy deeply buried targets. The Iranian recovery of the intact GBU-57 represents an intelligence bonanza of historic proportions. As noted in analyses of such scenarios, having the physical weapon is ‘more valuable than blueprints’ for reverse-engineering efforts. The bomb’s guidance systems, hardened casing, and specialized fusing mechanisms—the product of decades of U.S. research and billions in spending—were suddenly laid bare for Iranian military scientists. Reports from Iranian media, including the Tehran Times, soon claimed the country had ‘successfully reverse engineered the giant munition’.
 
CHINA: XI’S NEXT PURGES?
 
**China Watchers Are Trying to Spot the Next Target of Xi’s Purges** -
 
After China’s shocking ouster of top general Zhang Youxia, foreign analysts known as “Pekingologists” are intensively parsing official imagery, seating charts, and attendance patterns to predict who may be next in President Xi Jinping’s widening purge of China’s political and military elite. Analysts note that absences from key events, seating rearrangements, or missing funeral wreaths can signal impending trouble, as seen in the cases of former generals He Weidong and Zhang. Speculation now centers on Politburo member Ma Xingrui, who has not appeared publicly since October. Beijing has not commented on his status.
 
JAPAN’S STANCE ON ISLAM
 
**Japan Fights Back Against Muslim Migration** -
 
With over 100 mosques and over 400,000 Muslims already occupying Japan, even though 95% of Japanese voters oppose Muslim mass migration, a political explosion was bound to occur. Now, Japanese voters have delivered a striking defeat to the forces of mass migration with a stunning win for Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whom the media has already taken to describing as a ‘Trumpian’ figure for opposing mass migration, her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which won its largest victory to date, as did a number of other right-wing parties, including the one Kirk was addressing, demonstrating that voters were tired of mass migration. In Kawaguchi City, where so many Turkish Muslims now live on welfare that a Turkish candidate announced a run for mayor last year on a platform of “multiculturalism”, another conservative candidate candidate, Yuriko Okamura won with record turnout on a platform of cracking down on foreigners after statistics showed Muslims were 1,000% more likely to commit crimes than the native Japanese population. The media however blamed ‘misinformation’ and claimed that Kawaguchi was the central point for the spread of anti-Muslim xenophobia across Japan. By contrast, Reiwa Shinsengumi, a far-left party which welcomed mass migration, called for multiculturalism and spent much of its energy campaigning against Israel and for Islamic terrorists, fell from 8 parliamentary seats to only 1 in a crushing defeat for its agenda.
 
PAKISTANI MUSLIMS & INSURANCE FRAUD IN U.S.
 
**Pakistani Muslims Indicted in $10,000,000 Health Care Fraud** -
 
Two foreign nationals participated in a $10 million scheme to fraudulently bill Medicare and private insurers for nonexistent health care services, according to an indictment returned in federal court in Chicago. In 2023 and 2024, Burhan Mirza and Kashif Iqbal, along with several co-schemers, used nominee-owned laboratories and durable medical equipment providers to submit fraudulent claims to Medicare and private health care benefit programs for items and services that were not provided, the indictment states. Mirza, 31, is a Pakistani native who resided in Pakistan and obtained the identifying information of individuals, providers, and insurers without their knowledge and used the information to support the bogus claims submitted on behalf of the nominee-owned companies, the indictment states. Iqbal, 48, is a Pakistani native who resided in Lavon, Texas, and was allegedly associated with a number of durable medical equipment providers that submitted fraudulent claims to insurers. Iqbal also laundered fraud proceeds obtained by the co-schemers and coordinated the transfer of money obtained through the scheme to Pakistan, the indictment states.
 
TERRORISM
 
DAESH/ISIS IN THE NETHERLANDS
 
**Netherlands: 15 Muslims arrested for spreading ISIS propaganda and trying to get people to commit jihad massacres**-
 
Fifteen people were arrested in the Netherlands on Tuesday on suspicion of spreading propaganda for the Islamic State on TikTok and trying to persuade people to commit terrorist attacks, Dutch prosecutors said. The arrests were triggered by a TikTok account that spread large amounts of IS propaganda with Dutch subtitles, the prosecutors said. The TikTok posts, some with more than 100,000 views, encouraged people to join the Islamic State and glorified becoming a martyr for the violent Islamist group, they said. Thirteen of the suspects are Syrian, and four have Dutch nationality, prosecutors said, implying that some were dual nationals. Four are minors. The suspects, aged 16 to 53, were detained in raids across the Netherlands, following the arrest last month of a person who the prosecutors said was the main suspect.
 
U.S. TROOPS IN NIGERIA
 
**First U.S. Troops Arrive in Nigeria to Bolster Counterterrorism Fight** -
 
The first contingent of U.S. military personnel has arrived in Nigeria, beginning a deployment of about 200 advisers, intelligence analysts, and trainers to support Nigerian forces combating Boko Haram and other militant groups. Officials from both nations said the mission is strictly noncombat, focused on training, intelligence sharing, and establishing secure communications at joint bases across northern and central Nigeria. The move follows months of pressure from President Trump, who has criticized Nigeria’s failure to protect Christian communities and previously ordered a Christmas Day missile strike on militant targets. Additional U.S. aircraft and personnel are expected in coming weeks.
 
NIGERIA
 
**Rebels Target Niger Junta’s Oil Revenue**-
 
A Nigerien rebel group has attacked oil production infrastructure, which could weaken the country’s finances and threaten its ruling junta’s grip on power. Created in 2024, the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice (MPLJ) has gained strength through a series of attacks on Africa’s largest pipeline, which stretches nearly 2,000 kilometers from Niger’s oil-rich eastern deserts to Benin’s coast. The rebels’ primary targets are two Chinese oil companies that represent the main source of income for the junta and its leader, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani.
 
DAESH/ISIS GREATER THREAT THAN AL-QAEDA?
 
**Isis, not Al-Qaeda, is the West’s greatest terror threat**-
 
Western and other intelligence agencies last week told the United Nations that Al-Qaeda now has 25,000 members globally. Much of the ensuing press coverage has seized on the contrast: on 11 September 2001, the organisation was thought to have numbered just 500. The not-so-subtle implication here — that the Global War on Terror was worse than useless — must be resisted. The figures themselves should be treated with scepticism.
 
Assessing the size of militant groups, even non-clandestine ones, is fraught. Intelligence agencies presumably have sources researchers do not. Reliable or not, though, visibility is not the main issue. Even when its core consisted of a tight-knit cadre based in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, defining who counted as an Al-Qaeda member was extremely difficult. The 9/11 Commission, which had an upper estimate of 5,000 core Al-Qaeda members, documented up to 20,000 jihadists trained at the Al-Qaeda camps, who spread out across the world and maintained various forms of coordination with Osama bin Laden. Do they all count as Al-Qaeda? How is the distinction made?
 
It is purely down to interpretation. Once Al-Qaeda created its “affiliates” structure after 2004, with its first branch in Iraq — what became the Islamic State (Isis) — and subsequent branches in West Africa, Yemen, and Somalia, things became murkier still. Perhaps Al-Qaeda is larger now than in 2001, but nobody can honestly claim to know that, and certainly not with any degree of statistical accuracy.
 
***NOTE: This is not to say Al-Qaeda does not pose a threat.
 
GZB INFOCUS: TERRORISM ATTACKS IGNORED IN GERMANY
 
***GZB reported on early January about a power outage caused by terrorists. The German government has done nothing.
 
• It seems almost unbelievable that the German state, which intensely surveils citizens' every word on the internet, does not have the faintest clue who might be behind these terrorist attacks.
 
• These are the same authorities, after all, who send law enforcement to raid the homes of ordinary citizens for posting satirical comments about leading politicians, and for supposedly "inciting hatred."
 
• German authorities, in fact, appear to have been hyper-focused on eliminating what they seem to see as political threats to their power instead of catching terrorists from the "left."
 
• Even the BfV's former president, Hans-Georg Maassen, is under surveillance by the agency for being a "right-wing extremist." He lost that job in 2018 after expressing concern about the obvious Islamist threat from then Chancellor Angela Merkel's policy of flooding Germany with Muslim migrants and for, ironically, refusing to put the AfD under surveillance. He said, "I am not a tool of the governing parties, nor is it the BfV's job to undermine their political competitors."
 
• Perhaps if the German government had been more concerned with fighting terrorism and less with fighting legitimate political opposition, it might have been able to locate the actual terrorists?
 
In the early morning hours of January 3, 2026, a reportedly leftist radical network, "Volcano Group" (Vulkangruppe), committed an arson attack against the power grid in Berlin, Germany, causing an electricity blackout that left 45,000 households and 2,000 businesses – approximately 100,000 people – without heat and light during freezing winter temperatures for up to five days. It was reportedly the longest blackout in Germany since World War II.
 
The radicals in Volcano Group claimed responsibility for the attack. In a statement, they said that the network had aimed to "cut the juice to the ruling class" and claimed that the attack was about action to protect the climate from fossil fuels, artificial intelligence and a "greed for energy."
 
Among those "ruling class" people who suffered the consequences of this terrorist attack were four hospitals, 74 care homes, and 20 schools.
 
It has been more than a month since the attack, yet the authorities have arrested no one, seem bewildered, and are apparently so desperate that they have finally offered a million-euro reward to anyone with information that leads to the arrest of the attackers.
Volcano Group, far from being new, has, since 2011, perpetrated several other terrorist attacks "on critical points of public infrastructure," according to Germany's domestic intelligence service (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, or BfV).
 
“In Berlin and Brandenburg, arson attacks have been committed at irregular intervals on... public infrastructure since 2011. After the crimes, anonymous authors who describe themselves as 'Volcano groups' publish letters of responsibility on relevant internet platforms. The attacks often have a noticeable impact on the population. For example, there have already been several power and telecommunications failures as well as disruptions to public transport. It can be assumed that there is a network behind the 'Volcano groups'... Ideologically, they can be assigned to the violence-oriented anarchist spectrum."
 
Despite these attacks occurring in Germany at intervals for more than a decade, including one against the Tesla factory in Brandenburg, curiously, no one has ever been arrested. It seems almost unbelievable that the German state, which intensely surveils citizens' every word on the internet, does not have the faintest clue who might be behind these terrorist attacks.
 
These are the same authorities, after all, who send law enforcement to raid the homes of ordinary citizens for posting satirical comments about leading politicians, and for supposedly "inciting hatred." Approximately every six months, most recently on June 25, 2025, German police, under the coordination of the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), carried out its "12th Day of Action to Combat Criminal Hate Postings.”
 
On this exalted occasion, it carried out a total of 46 searches, 66 interrogations, and 26 other measures nationwide, targeting suspected authors of "online hate speech and incitement."
 
Authorities, however, are unable to find or arrest a single perpetrator from the Volcano Group, which conducts actual terrorism?
 
In an interview for broadcaster ZDF, German Minister of the Interior Alexander Dobrindt said.
 
"We see very clearly that attempts are being made here to carry out attacks against infrastructure, against our economy, against the population, against society, which are ultimately intended to massively harm people and could even cost them their lives."
 
ZDF summarized Dobrindt's belief that far-left extremism in recent years has not been taken sufficiently seriously in Germany:
 
"In recent years, left-wing extremism has not received much attention and has no longer been seen as the threat of our time. There has also been 'a high degree of trivialization.' For example, the chairman of the Left Party said that left-wing crimes serve the common good."
 
That is quite an understatement. German authorities, in fact, appear to have been hyper-focused on eliminating what they seem to see as political threats to their power instead of catching terrorists from the "left." In May 2025, Germany's domestic intelligence agency classified Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) — the party with the second-largest number of seats in parliament — as a "confirmed right-wing extremist organization" after an "intense and comprehensive" examination, which included authoring a staggering 1,100-page report. Imagine if that same sort of dedication had been expended on arresting terrorists from Volcano Group.
 
As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio bluntly said at the time, this classification of AfD gave the BfV intelligence agency "new powers to surveil the opposition. That's not democracy - it's tyranny in disguise."
 
Since the classification, the AfD has been under expanded surveillance by authorities. This new snooping potentially includes the use of wiretaps, monitoring electronic correspondence and communications, and undercover informants to spy on party officials and anyone else connected with the AfD.
 
Even the BfV's former president, Hans-Georg Maassen, is under surveillance by the agency for being a "right-wing extremist." He lost that job in 2018 after expressing concern about the obvious Islamist threat from then Chancellor Angela Merkel's policy of flooding Germany with Muslim migrants and for, ironically, refusing to put the AfD under surveillance. He said “I am not a tool of the governing parties, nor is it the BfV's job to undermine their political competitors."
 
Perhaps if the German government had been more concerned with fighting terrorism and less with fighting legitimate political opposition, it might have been able to locate the actual terrorists?
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

—END REPORT

See More

February 13, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 13 FEBRUARY 2026
 
OOPS! NOT CARTEL DRONES
 
**The laser weapon deployed to target suspected drones in El Paso struck party balloons instead -**
 
The objects that prompted Customs and Border Protection to use a classified Pentagon laser system near Fort Bliss, subsequently causing the FAA to temporarily close airspace within an 11 mile radius of El Paso International Airport, were later assessed as likely party balloons, not suspected cartel drones. The incident disrupted medical and commercial flights and exposed coordination gaps among federal agencies. Sources say that miscommunication between the Pentagon, FAA and the DHS sparked the episode and led lawmakers including Tammy Duckworth, Ted Cruz, and Roger Wicker to seek briefings. The laser system, approved by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, raises significant aviation safety concerns. Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has questioned claims that there were Mexican drones around the border area, pledging an investigation.
 
**Laser weapon that shut down El Paso's skies was LOCUST system, sources confirm **-
 
The counter-drone laser weapon that prompted the El Paso airspace shutdown on Wednesday was the LOCUST system, a 20-kilowatt directed-energy weapon built by Virginia-based firm AeroVironment, according to sources who spoke with Reuters and Axios. The U.S. Army views LOCUST as a cutting-edge, cost-effective alternative to missile interceptors, but the Federal Aviation Administration reportedly closed nearby airspace for nearly eight hours after the weapon was fired without coordination. Sources said Customs and Border Protection personnel operated the military-owned system during a border mission. The incident underscores risks tied to early field testing of directed-energy weapons in civilian areas.
 
**Do Drug Cartels Actually Use Drones at the Border? **
 
The temporary closure of airspace over El Paso and the Trump administration’s claim of a suspected cartel drone incursion has renewed debate over the scale of criminal drone activity. U.S. officials, including Homeland Security counter-drone director Steven Willoughby, have cited tens of thousands of drone detections near the border and limited drug seizures, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has downplayed cross-border drone threats. Experts say cartels increasingly use drones for surveillance and attacks inside Mexico, while evidence of sustained cross-border smuggling by drone remains mixed. One analyst suggested that even as American officials overstate the threat, Mexican officials understate it. She noted drones cause excessive attention, and that evidence suggests cartels use legitimate ports of entry for trafficking.
 
MEXICAN AID SHIPS TO CUBA
 
**Mexican Aid Ships Arrive in Cuba as Energy Crisis Deepens **-
 
Two Mexican Navy ships carrying more than 800 tons of humanitarian aid docked in Cuba on Feb. 12 as the island faces a worsening energy crisis linked to tightened U.S. pressure on oil supplies. The deliveries, which included food, powdered milk, and hygiene products, came weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on countries providing oil to Cuba, prompting fuel rationing and disruptions to transportation, aviation, and tourism. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said additional aid would follow as diplomatic efforts continue to restore oil flows. Cuban officials have described the situation as an “energy blockade,” citing widespread economic and social impacts.
 
U.S. & MEXICO
 
**Bipartisan congressional delegation saves upcoming US-Mexico joint military exercise **-
 
Two people familiar with the situation said that bipartisan congressional engagement helped secure Mexican approval for an upcoming joint U.S.-Mexico military exercise after earlier resistance in Mexico’s legislature. Lawmakers had hesitated following the U.S. operation targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, but a delegation led by Rep. Michael McCaul and Rep. Henry Cuellar raised the issue directly with Mexican Senate counterparts. President Claudia Sheinbaum formally requested entry for 19 U.S. Marines to train with the Mexican Navy in Campeche from Feb. 15 to April 16, and the Senate unanimously approved the measure. The episode underscores continued legislative influence over bilateral security cooperation amid broader tensions over cartel violence and potential U.S. military action.
 
VENEZUELA
 
**Venezuela’s Feared Regime of Repression Is Slowly Loosening Its Grip** -
 
Small, tenuous signs of political opening have emerged in Venezuela following last month’s removal of longtime strongman Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. Students have staged public protests in Caracas, and authorities have released more than 430 political prisoners, according to rights organization Foro Penal. State television aired comments from opposition leader María Corina Machado, breaking a longstanding taboo, and the interim leadership under Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has signaled limited reforms while engaging U.S. officials. Analysts caution that the opening remains fragile. While protestors apparently no longer fear arrest, abuse, or torture for demonstrating, some opposition figures face renewed restrictions, and a proposed amnesty bill may limit eligibility while preserving the existing power structure.
 
ANOTHER AIRCRAFT CARRIER BSTTKE GROUP HEADING TO MIDDLE EAST
 
**U.S. aircraft carrier to be deployed to Middle East from Venezuela** -
 
The Pentagon is deploying the Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford and its escort ships, to the Middle East, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and other warships already in the region, according to U.S. officials. The move comes as President Trump increases pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, while signaling openness to negotiations. The deployment marks a renewed focus on U.S. Central Command after a temporary pivot to the Western Hemisphere. The carrier strike group adds significant airpower and surveillance capabilities, enabling higher-tempo operations. Officials acknowledge strain on personnel, but say the vessel is prepared for extended operations if required.
 
U.S., ISRAEL & IRAN
 
**Trump says he will strike a deal with Iran over the next month **-
 
President Trump said Thursday that the U.S. must reach a deal with Iran, suggesting one could be achieved within a month to avoid “very traumatic” consequences. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after meeting with Trump, said the president believes Iran could be pressured into accepting favorable terms in a renewed agreement. Netanyahu described their discussions as focused primarily on Iran, alongside other regional issues, including Gaza. While expressing skepticism about the prospects for a deal, he reiterated that any agreement must address not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its ballistic missiles and regional proxies. He reportedly shared intelligence on its military and missile program, urging any potential U.S. strike to include those targets.
 
STARLINK IN IRAN
 
**U.S. Smuggled Thousands of Starlink Terminals Into Iran After Protest Crackdown** -
 
The Trump administration reportedly smuggled roughly 6,000 Starlink terminals into Iran after the regime’s deadly crackdown on protesters last month, marking the first direct U.S. delivery of the satellite-internet kits. The covert effort aimed to help dissidents maintain online access amid widespread internet blackouts. Officials said President Trump was aware of the operation, which diverted funds from U.S.-backed VPN programs. Critics argue the move left activists more vulnerable to detection, as VPN funding cuts reduced broader digital access. Washington denies fomenting unrest, though the operation underscores deeper U.S. involvement in Iranian opposition support.
 
IRAN: BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU
 
**Iran Turns to Digital Surveillance Tools to Track Down Protesters **-
 
Iranian authorities have expanded digital surveillance to identify and intimidate participants in the country’s recent anti-government protests, according to researchers and rights groups. Protesters received text messages warning they were under “intelligence monitoring,” with analysts concluding officials likely used mobile location data and facial recognition tools to track them. Authorities have reportedly suspended SIM cards, disrupted banking services and conducted interrogations based on digital evidence. Much of the surveillance is tied to Iran’s National Information Network, developed since 2013 to centralize internet control and monitoring. Researchers say tools include spyware, traffic interception systems and centralized digital identity programs linking personal data to online behavior. Despite efforts by citizens to bypass controls, including satellite internet, authorities have moved to close gaps and deter circumvention.
 
INDIA: HINDU PERSECUTION BY MUSLIMS
 
**India: 40 Hindu families put houses up for sale after harassment from local Muslims and police inaction** -
 
An entire neighbourhood in Agra’s Bhagwan Nagar colony has erupted in anger and fear after around 40 Hindu families simultaneously put up “house for sale” posters on their homes, alleging sustained harassment by local Muslims and police inaction. The unprecedented move has turned a long‑simmering local dispute into a high‑profile law and order and communal sensitivity issue in Uttar Pradesh. Local reports indicate that the affected stretch is overwhelmingly Hindu and that families claim they no longer feel safe keeping their children and women outside even for routine work, due to repeated altercations and threats from a group of local Muslim youths. Many residents have openly spoken of “palaayan” (migration) as an option if security and justice are not assured, becoming a case of forced exodus.
 
U.K. JIHADI TERRORIST TO BE FREED
 
**Muslim who plotted jihad massacre at Army base is set to be released three years early** -
 
One of Britain’s most dangerous terrorists, who was jailed for a plot to bomb an Army base in Luton, is set to be released from jail three years early – despite expert advice advising against the release. Zahid Iqbal, along with Mohammed Sharfaraz Ahmed, Umar Arshad and Syed Farhan Hussain, admitted to discussing a theoretical attack on the site back in 2013. During his sentencing, the 31-year-old, who was also one of the gang’s ringleaders, was sentenced to life in prison, with the judge imposing a custodial sentence of at least 11 years and three months, with a five-year extension period. But the parole board has ruled that Al-Qaeda-inspired Iqbal could be allowed back out onto the streets of Britain three years earlier than his maximum sentence. Both Iqbal and Ahmed spoke about creating an improvised explosive device (IED) between January 2011 and April 2012. They discussed following instructions in an online Al-Qaeda manual “How to make a bomb in the kitchen of your mom – by the al-Qaeda chef”. The parole board has told GB News: “The panel will carefully examine a huge range of evidence, including details of the original crime and any evidence of behaviour change, as well as explore the harm done and impact the crime has had on his victims.
 
AFRICA: DRC
 
**Democratic Republic of the Congo: Muslims praise Allah after murdering 24 Christians and burning down 20 homes** -
 
At least 24 Christians were killed as Islamist militants carried out new attacks in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on February 6. Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) claimed the massacre of “21 Christians … praise be to Allah” as well as the burning down of 20 homes in the Lubero District of North Kivu Province. In a separate social media post the terrorists celebrated the killing “with machine guns” of three Christians in the city of Beni, also in North Kivu. M23 and ISCAP are among the many armed groups responsible for mass killings, abductions, sexual violence, and displacement across northeastern DRC. In a recent video one of ISCAP’s leaders, Bonge La Chuma, denounced the M23 rebels as “infidels,” emphasizing ISCAP’s aim of establishing sharia (Islamic law) in DRC. In July 2025 the Islamists demanded that Christians either convert to Islam or accept dhimmi status as subjugated people and pay the jizya tax to their conquerors. “Let the Christians of Africa know,” the group declared, “that there is no security for you except by Islam or jizya.” ISCAP (formerly known as the Allied Democratic Forces, or ADF) has claimed the killing of more than 800 Christians in northeastern DRC since its violence against Christian communities escalated in December 2024.
 
SOMALIA
 
**Covert mission led by Sudanese officers to train Somali militias** -
 
In recent months, a team of Sudanese military personnel has trained a thousand Somali recruits in the state of Galmudug. The operation was led by the Mogadishu intelligence services, headed by Mahad Salad, against a backdrop of internal tensions between the federal states. Training started in December 2024 at the Adado camp in Somalia's central Galmudug state. Some 973 men received instruction there, supported from January 2025 by a group of 15 Sudanese officers and NCOs. At the same time, under NISA oversight, 432 recruits began intensive training at the Guriel training centre, 150 kilometres away, to bolster the ranks of a "civil guard" - a self-defence militia. In March, that group travelled to Adado to join other forces. NISA's military training department oversaw the operation and brought in Sudanese instructors.
 
HIZBOLLAH WEBSITE
 
**Hizbullah Website Releases 'Target Cards' On U.S., Israeli, And Partner Nation Military Bases In Middle East And Africa, Amid Heightening Tensions With Iran** -
 
Since January 27, 2026, the website, Al-Khanadeq, has published what it calls "target cards" about American, British, Israeli, and Arab Gulf military installations in the Middle East. The outlet has warned that, if U.S.-Iranian tensions heighten, the identified locations could be targeted by Iranian forces. Al-Khanadeq has provided information about locations in Israel and the West Bank, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey, Cyprus, and the Indian Ocean, as well as Lebanon and east Africa. Each target card comprises a photo of the military site, as well as information detailing its history, function, and features. For example, a target card released on January 27 detailed information about Diego Garcia, a U.S.-U.K. military installation on the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean. Al-Khanadeq wrote: "The Diego Garcia Base in considered one of the most prominent and important American military bases in the Indian Ocean, which – without doubt – will be a target for the Islamic Republic of Iran if America uses it as a launchpad for aggression against Iran."
 
**As U.S. Bombs Somalia, Israel Shakes Status Quo on Horn of Africa** -
 
Since taking office, President Trump has intensified U.S. military operations in Somalia, with U.S. Africa Command conducting roughly 150 strikes against Al Shabab and Islamic State targets. Israel recently became the first nation to recognize the self-declared independent Somaliland, drawing criticism from major powers and the African Union. Analysts say the Horn of Africa is emerging as a focal point for geopolitical competition, driven by access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and Israel’s efforts to counter Iran-backed Houthi forces. While Washington has not altered its position on Somaliland, it continues close coordination with Somalia’s government, wary that recognition could complicate counterterrorism operations and regional stability.
 
U.S. CENTCOM & SYRIA
 
**US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) withdrawal from key bases in Syria illustrates that the United States is gradually shifting its counter-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) framework to engage with the Syrian government rather than the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) **-
 
CENTCOM confirmed on February 11 that US forces completed their withdrawal from al Tanf Garrison in the central Syrian desert as part of a “deliberate and conditions-based transition.” US forces have maintained a presence at the al Tanf Garrison since 2015 alongside a Syrian opposition group known as the Syrian Free Army (formerly known as Maghawhir al Thawra). US forces and the Syrian Free Army established the al Tanf Garrison to prevent ISIS from taking over the entire Iraq-Syria border in 2015, and US forces maintained their presence there to monitor the expansion of Iran’s military activity in Syria in coordination with Israel and Jordan.
 
IRAQ & DAESH/ISLAMIC STATE
 
**Iraq Interrogates Islamic State Suspects Transferred from Syria** -
 
Iraq has begun interrogating more than 5,000 suspected Islamic State militants recently transferred from Kurdish-run prisons in northeastern Syria, officials confirmed. The detainees—representing 60 nationalities—were moved to Baghdad’s Al-Karkh Central Prison with U.S. military assistance to prevent potential prison breaks amid renewed regional instability. Iraqi Judge Ali Hussein Jafat, overseeing the process, said trials will be public and focus on those accused of crimes committed in Iraq. The transfer, requested by Baghdad, aims to ease security risks and close a long-standing legal gap for suspects held for years without charge in Syria.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
— END REPORT
 

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February 11, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 11 FEBRUARY 2026
 
EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FLIGHTS HALTED
 
The Federal Aviation Administration has grounded all flights to and from El Paso International Airport in Texas for the next 10 days, the agency announced Wednesday, warning that the U.S. government "may use deadly force" against an aircraft in violation, if it is deemed to pose "an imminent security threat."
 
All flights to and from El Paso are grounded, including commercial, cargo and general aviation. The restriction is effective from February 10 at 11:30 p.m. MST to February 20 at 11:30 p.m. MST. The FAA cited "special security reasons" for the closure, but did not elaborate.
 
The no-fly restriction applies to airspace over El Paso as well as nearby Santa Teresa, New Mexico.
 
**NOTE: the airport's proximity is close to Fort Bliss.
 
The closure resembles something like a national security event, for a high-level VIP, but not for 10 days — the interesting thing is that on the Mexican side of the border there is no flight restriction.
 
U.S. & ARMENIA
 
U.S.-Armenia ties. The United States and Armenia signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement during U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Yerevan. The deal, known as a 123 Agreement, after Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act of 1954, allows the U.S. to license nuclear technology and equipment to other countries. It will enable up to $5 billion in U.S. exports to Armenia, plus another $4 billion in maintenance and fuel contracts. The arrangement will help reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia, whose state-owned Rosatom operates its only nuclear power plant. On Monday, Armenia also announced that it has purchased V-BAT unmanned aerial vehicles from the United States.
 
EU & UKRAINE
 
Plan for Ukraine. The European Union is considering a plan that could grant Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as soon as next year, Politico reported Under the proposal, the rights and obligations that usually coincide with membership would be applied to Kyiv in phases, providing it more time to make necessary reforms as part of the accession process. A major hurdle, however, is Hungary, whose prime minister, Viktor Orban, opposes Ukraine’s membership. Some within the bloc are apparently hoping Hungarian elections in April could unseat Orban. As a last resort, the EU could try to push the U.S. president, a close ally of Orban, to compel Hungary to concede in order to reach a peace deal, or take away Hungary’s voting rights under Article 7 of the EU treaty.
 
RUSSIA DEMANDS GUARANTEES
 
**Senior Russian official says Moscow needs 'security guarantees' **-
 
The Kremlin insisted that any settlement to the war in Ukraine must include explicit security guarantees for Moscow, with Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko arguing that peace is impossible without them. Speaking on Feb. 10, Grushko asserted that Russia’s security interests must take precedence and criticized the European Union for failing to address Moscow’s concerns. He reiterated longstanding demands, including barring NATO membership for Ukraine, and rejected proposals for foreign troop deployments. The comments come amid ongoing trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. aimed at ending the war.
 
UKRAINE: MISSION CONTROL
 
**Ukraine Launches ‘Mission Control’ to Centralize Drone Warfare **-
 
Ukraine has unveiled Mission Control, a digital command-and-control system integrating all drone operations nationwide into its existing DELTA battlefield network. The platform unifies mission planning, execution, and reporting, giving commanders real-time insight into effectiveness and failures. Officials say the system will transform fragmented, improvised drone warfare into a standardized, data-driven operation, with information feeding directly into Ukraine’s ePoints performance system. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said the initiative marks a shift to “managed, technological warfare.” Built with NATO-grade cybersecurity, Mission Control reportedly passed U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology standards and is housed entirely within Ukraine’s protected defense network.
 
RUSSIAN STRIKES INCREASE
 
**Russian Strikes Intensify as Ceasefire Talks Advance **-
 
Russia launched new air raids on Odesa and struck energy firm Naftogaz facilities in the Poltava region, marking the 19th attack on the company. Moscow claimed gains in Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions, while Kyiv said Russia fired more than 2,000 drones and 1,200 guided bombs in the past week. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said only a few issues remain in U.S.-brokered peace talks, adding that Donald Trump is key to securing a final deal and that Washington is ready to provide congressional-backed security guarantees. Meanwhile, India reportedly reduced Russian oil imports ahead of trade talks with Washington.
 
THE BATTLE FOR POKROVSK
 
**Russian forces pressuring Pokrovsk as 'last battles' rage** -
 
Ukrainian military officials say Russian forces are intensifying efforts around the embattled city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, seeking to complete a months-long campaign to seize the strategic rail hub as part of Moscow’s push to control the Donetsk region. Kyiv says it still holds parts of Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad, though Russian forces are exploiting superior manpower and air power. Analysts note Russia has made only limited territorial gains since 2023, despite heavy bombardment. Ukraine rejects Russian demands to cede remaining Donetsk territory, while Moscow insists territorial control is central to any U.S. brokered peace talks.
 
ESTONIAN INTEL
 
**Estonia says Russia planning military buildup to shift power in Europe **-
 
Russia is unlikely to launch a military attack on a NATO state in 2026 or 2027 but is rapidly rebuilding its forces to prepare for future confrontation, according to an annual assessment by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. The agency said Moscow is expanding ammunition production fast enough to sustain the war in Ukraine while stockpiling for future conflicts. Estonia warned that Russia aims to delay European rearmament and exploit engagement with the Trump administration to weaken sanctions. The report added that closer Russia–China cooperation could further undermine Western security interests.
 
EU INTELLIGENCE
 
**Von der Leyen softens plan for intelligence cell **-
 
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scaling back plans to centralize EU intelligence sharing following resistance from member states and clashes with foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, according to officials cited by POLITICO. A proposed Commission-led intelligence cell is now expected to function mainly as a security unit, leaving most intelligence coordination with INTCEN under the European External Action Service. The adjustment preserves Kallas’s authority and reflects member state reluctance to cede control over sensitive intelligence, even as the European Union seeks stronger coordination against Russian hybrid threats and amid strains in transatlantic intelligence ties.
 
GAZA
 
Gaza mission. Indonesia reportedly plans to deploy several thousand troops to Gaza in the coming weeks. The soldiers, the first members to arrive as part of the International Stabilization Force, will be stationed in southeastern Rafah. The exact date of their deployment has not been determined. Meanwhile, Indonesia has signed two letters of intent to acquire Italian-made M-346 Master trainer jets and Russian-made Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters. The country currently operates British-made BAE System Hawk 109/209 and Korean-made KAI T-50 aircraft in roles similar to those of the M-346.
 
THE PIJ
 
**Palestinian Islamic Jihad announces it will ‘never surrender its weapons’** -
 
“Mohammad Al-Hajj Musa”, spokesman for the Islamic Jihad movement: Weapons and resistance are the real guarantors for protecting the Palestinian people, and this movement refuses to surrender its weapons or accept any dictates in this regard. He added: Any discussion about weapons is a completely internal Palestinian issue, the weapons of resistance belong to the Palestinian people.
 
NATO ARCTIC MISSION
 
Eye on the Arctic. NATO reportedly plans to launch a mission within days designed to enhance Arctic surveillance and boost the alliance’s presence in the region. Operation Arctic Sentry will involve military exercises and air and sea patrols, including the use of drones. Notably, Russia’s Northern Fleet said on Monday that its Admiral Kasatonov frigate conducted firing exercises at a naval range in the Barents Sea.
 
RUSSIA
 
Plan B. Russia is urgently trying to replace Starlink with its own satellite internet service on the frontlines in Ukraine, adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Serhii Beskrestnov said after SpaceX blocked Moscow from using Starlink within Ukrainian territory.
 
According to Beskrestnov, Russia has access to several high-speed internet providers that it could employ.
 
Out of view. Iran is suspending public displays of new defense technology for security reasons, a spokesperson for its Defense Ministry said. The official also said artificial intelligence already plays a major role in Iran’s defense technology. The statement comes amid growing concerns about a potential U.S. strike on Iran.
 
TÜRKIYE
 
Ripple effect. Turkey could be pulled into a regional nuclear arms race if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned. According to the minister, other countries in the region couldn’t ignore Iran becoming a nuclear power and would be forced to reassess their positions on nuclear arms.
 
CUBA & CHINA
 
**Cuba Grounds Jet Fuel Supply as U.S. Oil Blockade Deepens **-
 
Cuban aviation officials have announced that jet fuel will be unavailable at nine airports, including Havana’s José Martí International, through March 11 as U.S. sanctions choke off fuel imports. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff order targeting countries supplying oil to Cuba has severed access from Venezuela and Mexico, prompting Canadian airlines like Air Canada and WestJet to suspend flights. The measures, part of Havana’s emergency rationing plan, follow nationwide power outages, curtailed public transport, and canceled cultural events. Economists warn the crisis could rival Cuba’s 1990s “Special Period,” threatening the tourism sector and deepening shortages of fuel, food, and medicine.
 
NICARAGUA & CUBA
 
**Amid U.S. Pressure, Nicaragua Blocks a Once-Popular Route from Cuba **-
 
Nicaragua has ended visa free entry for Cuban migrants, closing a key transit route long used to reach the United States and widely viewed as a revenue source for Managua. The decision, announced by Nicaragua’s migration authority, is seen by analysts as an effort by autocratic co-presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo to ease pressure from the Trump administration. Experts describe the move as symbolic and overdue, noting that Nicaragua had previously facilitated large scale migrant flows from Cuba and other countries for profit. Washington has imposed sanctions, visa restrictions, and trade penalties, while signaling a tougher stance toward Managua than under the previous administration.
 
INDIA
 
**Manipur: Security forces destroy IEDs along Indo-Myanmar border, arrest four insurgents** -
 
Indian law enforcers and security agencies destroyed two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in situ and arrested four insurgents linked to splinter insurgent outfits in multiple operations across Manipur on Saturday. Officials said on Sunday that security forces recovered mortars and two IEDs from the general area of Yangoubung along the Indo-Myanmar border near Border Pillars 72–73 under Moreh police station in Tengnoupal district. The explosives were later destroyed in situ by a bomb disposal team.
 
AFRICA: THE SAHEL
 
El Sagel: The first week of February 2026 witnessed intensified insurgent violence, persistent abductions, and sustained counter-insurgency operations across Nigeria and the wider Sahel. militant groups demonstrated continued adaptability, cross-border coordination, and operational resilience.
 
Niger: Nigerian Army troops intensified operations and successfully rescued six individuals abducted by suspected Boko Haram fighters. The operation disrupted terrorist leverage through kidnapping and signalled sustained operational reach and pressure on insurgent cells operating in the area. Rescue operations remain a key measure in reducing insurgents’ ability to intimidate communities and finance activities through ransom.
 
Reports also indicated a leadership change within Islamic State-West Africa Province (ISWAP), with a new commander appointed in the Timbuktu Triangle, signalling internal restructuring of extremist networks beyond Nigeria’s borders. February began with both daytime and nighttime attacks, illustrating multi-tier threats from insurgents, bandits, and organised criminal groups. Increasing air–ground synergy is exerting pressure on militant logistics, though insurgents continue exploiting remote terrain.
 
On Feb 4 in Niger (Fulani settlement) Armed attackers rustled approximately 200 sheep and injured herders, disrupting livelihoods and heightening fear among pastoral communities.
 
Despite peace and amnesty initiatives, a bandit attack in Faskari, Katsina State, killed more than 20 people, highlighting the limits of negotiated settlements.
 
On Feb 6, At least 36 Nigerien soldiers were killed near the Niger–Burkina Faso border in a coordinated attack linked to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), underscoring escalating cross-border militant threats.
 
AFGHANISTAN
 
**Afghan Child Is Seen Making Explosives Barrel **-
 
According to a video and a Dari-language tweet published by Independent Persian Afghanistan on January 26, 2026, the Afghan Taliban released a video showing an Afghan child issuing threats to U.S. President Donald Trump for seeking control of the Bagram Airbase. In the video, the child is shown preparing a yellow barrel associated with Taliban explosive and suicide attacks. The child says he does not go to school because he is making the barrel, prompting critics to accuse the Taliban of promoting a culture of war among children.
 
ISIS-K MAGAZINE
 
Issue 47 of ISIS-K-Linked English Language Web Magazine Released**-
 
On January 31, ISIS-K-linked al-Azaim Media released issue 47 of its web magazine, Voice of Khorasan. The main article condemned militant groups that claimed to fight for religious purposes and called themselves mujahideen, but promote nationhood, specific ethnic groups, or ethnic or national separatism. The article declared that concepts of nationhood are apostasy and that these groups improperly use religious justifications and slogans. Issue 47 also included an article on AI chatbots, building on the previous issue’s article, which discussed various AI platforms. The article provided guidance on using AI chatbots, noting that they can be useful for summarizing articles, creating educational campaigns, performing administrative tasks, providing coding support, translation, and serving as academic tutors. The author noted that users should exercise caution when using chatbots; that information from AI is not always 100% accurate; that users should not share personally identifying or other sensitive information; and that any inputs to AI chatbots could eventually be made public.
 
GZB INFOCUS: IRAN, NUKES & 9-11
 
The United States has entered indirect talks with Tehran over the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Geopolitically, Iran should not be a fundamental issue for the United States. Washington was involved in the Middle East throughout the Cold War, and when that conflict ended, the U.S. had an imperative to reduce its exposure in and tensions with the region. Yet the region remains unstable and the U.S. involved, so the question is why Washington ought to concern itself with Iran now.
 
The U.S invaded Iraq in 2003, two years after the 9/11 attacks. The stated reason for the war was the fear that Iraq was in the process of developing nuclear weapons – a fear compounded by the prospect of nukes falling into the hands of radical Islamists. The principle of mutual assured destruction had prevented a direct war between Washington and Moscow for more than a generation, but from the U.S. perspective, it was unclear whether MAD would apply to non-state actors whose ideology, at times, embraced martyrdom. This perception made the Iraqi nuclear program – real or not – something that could not be risked.
 
Iraq never had any nukes, of course, but the 9/11 attacks – and the fear of nuclear-armed extremists – remain deeply embedded in the American geopolitical psyche. U.S. intelligence failed to detect the plans laid by al-Qaida, and Americans were forced to confront an enemy that was willing to die to damage their country. We still experience the consequences of 9/11every time we go to an airport.
 
This goes a long way in explaining U.S. interest in Iran. The government in Tehran is theocratic; it has a complex system of stakeholders and decision-makers, but ultimate authority rests in the supreme leader. And though the brand of Islam it practices (Shiism) is markedly different than that of al-Qaida (Sunnism), Iran nonetheless is home to a variety of non-state actors, and has pursued a strategic policy of supporting and arming non-state actors in other countries, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi Shiite militias. Washington's concern is compounded by the fact that Iran is in the middle of a messy domestic transition and could become unstable, which means nuclear technology is an even greater threat.
 
There are currently nine nuclear powers in the world: the U.S., Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, Israel and North Korea. In each country, the principle of MAD holds true. Nuclear weapons have never been used in combat because to use them is to sign one’s own death warrant. Here again, the U.S. is concerned that this principle does not apply to Iran.
 
If that’s the case, it necessarily means that the U.S. policy of withdrawing or disengaging from the Eastern Hemisphere does not apply to Iran. The fundamental issue for the United States is not the future of Iran but the possibility that Iran would not be deterred by MAD from using nukes or giving them to a group that would be all too eager to use them.
 
Good strategy should always consider the worst-case scenario. In this case, it would be an Iranian nuclear weapon, loaded on a ship flying a false flag, sailing into an American harbor and being detonated.
 
The U.S. was profoundly traumatized by 9/11, after which intelligence was institutionalized to prevent another such attack. But 9/11 would be a mild blow compared to a nuclear assault.
 
This has brought the U.S. into negotiations with a country it would normally be indifferent to (and thus violates the U.S. strategy of disengagement). And it makes Iran’s nuclear program its greatest bargaining chip. The U.S. has bombed Iran’s nuclear development facilities but failed to destroy them. Any possibility of the nuclear program's revival is unacceptable to the U.S. As for Iran, a nuclear program gives it significant leverage, and so it will seek to extract what it wants most: a halt to attacks (particularly by Israel) and an end to international sanctions on its economy.
 
The U.S. has interests in the Middle East, but it has no interest in waging war there. From its perspective, Iran is a Middle Eastern problem, not a global one. Its nuclear program is the lone exception. This threat is the main driver for Washington’s obsession with Iran's nuclear program, its attacks on Iranian territory and other actions likely to be taken VERY SOON if Tehran does not capitulate. A fundamental U.S. interest is at stake here, as is a fundamental Iranian interest. If they do not reach some kind of settlement, it is in my mind likely that the U.S. will act militarily against Iran's nuclear facilities. But Iran will only concede on the nuclear issue if the U.S. agrees to reduce pressure. This statement may seem obvious, but given the details involved on both sides, it’s profoundly complex.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

—END REPORT
 

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February 9, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 9 FEBRUARY 2026
 
GEN Z WORSE THAN SPIES?
 
**Gen Z Spies: Are Gamers a Bigger Threat Than Foreign Operatives?**-
 
US Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira found friends online like many Gen Z gamers during Covid-19. He had a girlfriend known as ‘Crow’, a young woman he’d never met in person. Teixeira also traded memes and war videos with virtual friends on the Discord platform, and - if prosecutors are right - leaked hundreds of US secrets to impress an unlikely group of military strategists: chronically online teens living at home with mom. Jonathan Askonas, an academic and co-author of the Foreign Policy article on gaming, said his central argument is that the traditional acronym intelligence officers use to recruit spies, MICE (Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego), needs a fifth addition to describe the durable, deep social ties experienced by people heavily involved in an online community. “It's not really about ‘video games’ as such but about the way the Internet is rewiring human sociality in ways that current counterespionage practices do not know how to cope with.” So how did we arrive here? It is a tale rooted in the Cold War that features NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and an intriguing set of cyber spies who play online games for a living.
 
FAR LEFT FIO (FOREIGN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS
 
**Far-left group with foreign ties undermining US under guise of protest, report warns** - Report link
https://networkcontagion.us/wp-content/uploads/Democratic-Socialists-of-America_-Policy-Advocacy-and-Narrative-Convergence-with-Hostile-Foreign-States.pdf
 
SHADOW FOI CAMPAIGNS
 
**State actor targets 155 countries in 'Shadow Campaigns' espionage op**-
A state-sponsored threat group has compromised dozens of networks of government and critical infrastructure entities in 37 countries in global-scale operations dubbed 'Shadow Campaigns'. Between November and December last year, the actor also engaged in reconnaissance activity targeting government entities connected to 155 countries.
 
DOMESTIC TERRORISM ROUND UP
NORTH CAROLINA
 
• Christian Sturdivant, 18, of Mint Hill, N.C., was indicted on federal charges of attempting to provide material support to ISIS after authorities say he planned an attack on a grocery store and a fast-food restaurant around New Year’s Eve 2026, according to a federal affidavit.
 
• FBI agents allege that Sturdivant communicated online with what he thought were ISIS members, pledged allegiance to the group, and sent images of weapons such as hammers and knives to an undercover contact.
 
• Law enforcement executed a search of his residence on Dec. 29, 2025, and reported finding handwritten documents titled “New Years [sic] Attack 2026” listing tactical gear and a plan to stab civilians, along with hammers and knives in his home. He remains in federal custody and faces a statutory maximum of 20 years in prison.
 
CALIFORNIA
 
• Mark Lorenzo Villanueva, 29, of Long Beach, Calif., pleaded guilty in federal court to attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and to being a felon in possession of a firearm after prosecutors found a homemade bomb at his residence in August 2025.
 
• Prosecutors said Villanueva communicated via social media beginning in February 2025 with an individual who claimed to be an ISIS fighter and, based on instructions, sent more than $1,600 overseas to fund ammunition, weapons, and supplies.
 
• Sentencing is scheduled for June 17, 2026, with potential prison terms of up to 35 years.
 
ATLANTA
 
• Cholo Abdi Abdullah, a 34-year-old Kenyan national and al-Shabaab operative, was sentenced on December 22, 2025, to two consecutive life terms plus lifetime supervised release following his November 2024 conviction on six terrorism-related charges, including conspiring to murder U.S. nationals and commit aircraft piracy.
 
• Abdullah plotted with al-Shabaab to hijack a commercial airliner and carry out a 9/11-style attack targeting U.S. high-rise buildings, including Atlanta’s Bank of America Plaza.
 
• From 2017 to 2019, al-Shabaab funded Abdullah’s pilot training in the Philippines, where he logged flight hours and studied cockpit security, hijacking tactics, and U.S. visa requirements. The plot was disrupted in July 2019 when Philippine authorities arrested Abdullah, who was extradited to the United States in 2020.
 
GZB INFOCUS: Xi Drains the Central Military Commission
 
The fall of Zhang Youxia suggests that professional dissent has become a liability in China’s top military ranks.
 
Last week, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that Zhang Youxia, first vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, chief of the Joint Staff Department, were under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law.” The announcement followed days of speculation after both men were conspicuously absent from a high-level party seminar presided over by President Xi Jinping. A Politburo member, Zhang was the highest-ranking uniformed officer in the People’s Liberation Army and second only to Xi within the CMC. He and Liu were the only CMC members with actual combat experience, having fought in the Sino-Vietnamese conflicts of the late 1970s and 1980s. With their removals, nearly the entire CMC formed after the 20th Party Congress in 2022 has now been purged, leaving Zhang Shengmin, the PLA’s discipline chief, as the sole uniformed member.
Such a situation is without precedent in the post-Mao era. Even Xi’s earlier military purges, including the downfall of two former CMC vice chairmen in 2015 and the removal of two defense ministers since 2023, did not empty out the top military command so completely. The only historical parallel lies in the early Cultural Revolution, when the CMC effectively disappeared from public view between 1966 and 1971. Therefore, rather than being just another in a long string of recent corruption cases, this event marks a structural rupture within China’s military system.
 
Since Xi took office in 2012, he has placed exceptional trust in Zhang Youxia. Zhang was crucial to the PLA’s modernization drive, first serving as head of the CMC’s Equipment Development Department and later as vice chairman overseeing operational command. He also played a decisive role in executing Xi’s 2015 military reforms, which dismantled the Soviet-style, army-centric command structure and replaced it with joint theater commands designed for modern warfare. Xi elevated Zhang to second-ranked CMC vice chairman in 2017, then broke age norms in 2022 by naming the then-72-year-old Zhang as China’s senior general. (Top politicians generally retire around the age of 68-70, with Xi himself being a rare exception.)
As for Liu Zhenli, his role complemented Zhang’s. As chief of the Joint Staff Department, Liu oversaw joint operations planning, exercises and operational readiness, the core functions required for any conflict around Taiwan. His career trajectory, including command of the PLA Ground Force and service in the People’s Armed Police, placed him at the center of China’s evolving joint command system.
Officially, Zhang and Liu have been accused of corruption and failing to rein in their associates. Such charges are plausible, since corruption – particularly the buying and selling of promotions – has long been deeply rooted within the PLA.
 
Xi’s own anti-corruption campaign has punished nearly 1 million officials annually, often charging them with offenses related to military procurement and promotions. Yet corruption alone does not explain the scale or timing of the purge. What makes this case different is the explicit political language used in official indictments. Zhang and Liu were accused not only of corruption but also of undermining the “CMC chairman responsibility system” and weakening the party’s absolute leadership over the military. This accusation suggests political or ideological defiance, or, at least, professional resistance interpreted by Xi as disloyalty.
 
A couple of juicy rumors about Zhang can almost certainly be dismissed. First, if he were guilty of leaking nuclear secrets to the United States, as unnamed sources have told Western media, then he would likely already be dead, not under investigation. The Chinese Communist Party’s centralized control over foreign military contacts, and Zhang’s own limited foreign interactions, also make such unilateral disclosures implausible.
 
Second, when Xi disappeared from public view for nearly two weeks in May and June 2025, there were rumors that Zhang used his absence to consolidate his own power base within the PLA. For example, several senior generals were removed, and Xi’s name was temporarily absent from articles published in CCP-linked outlets. No real evidence ever surfaced to suggest that there was some sort of plot to overthrow Xi, and Xi soon reappeared in full control.
 
A likelier explanation for Zhang’s downfall is simple civil-military disagreement. For one thing, Zhang did not see eye to eye with Xi regarding the timeline and method for preparing a Taiwan operation, as evidenced by official PLA publications, Five-Year Plan documents and public speeches. Xi has insisted that the PLA must be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027, a politically symbolic date tied to the PLA’s centenary.
 
Achieving this would require mature joint operational capability, something the PLA has struggled to implement Zhang, by contrast, has repeatedly emphasized fixing long-standing training deficiencies before accelerating joint operations. When he discussed modernization priorities in late 2025, he anticipated full joint operational capability closer to 2035, which aligns more closely with the PLA’s traditional tempo.
Zhang and Liu’s purge highlights an important pattern throughout Xi’s rule: Personal loyalty does not guarantee survival. The investigations of Qin Gang, Liu Yuan, Wang Qishan and now Zhang Youxia all illustrate the same rule. Xi values loyalty, but he values absolute authority more. In civil-military terms, Zhang represented something Xi could not tolerate: an alternative figure of professional authority with real combat experience and institutional credibility. Even if Zhang was loyal in intent, his resistance to Xi’s timeline equaled political defiance in Xi’s framework.
 
In the short term, this purge damages command cohesion and morale. Networks of trust have been disrupted, experienced commanders removed and political fear reinforced. The absence of combat experience at the CMC level is significant, but the PLA remains capable of routine operations. Joint combat readiness patrols around Taiwan have continued without noticeable disruption.
 
Institutional stability ensures that exercises, deployments and gray-zone activities proceed largely as planned. Strategically, the likelihood of a near-term invasion of Taiwan remains low, as complex joint operations require experienced commanders who trust one another – exactly what the purge has undermined. A failed invasion would be catastrophic for Xi. However, there is a possibility that the purge will produce more aggressive tactical behavior, as new commanders eager to demonstrate loyalty may favor quick and attention-grabbing action over professional caution. This increases the risk of miscalculation, even as it decreases the likelihood of a full-scale war.
 
Having eliminated Zhang, whose opposing views and growing support base within the PLA became a threat, Xi almost certainly remains in control. However, he achieved that control by making a less-than-ideal choice: He further exposed the depth of corruption in the PLA, left the CMC with barely any sitting members, and revealed a serious level of mistrust between the nation’s political leadership and military professionals. Whether this strengthens China’s long-term military effectiveness or only solidifies a culture of fear remains uncertain. What is clear is that the party remains in a position of absolute power, but at a cost.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

—END REPORT

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February 7, 2026 - SPECIAL REPORT

SPECIAL REPORT
IRAN: U.S. STATE DEPT. ISSUES WARNING
 
**US urges citizens to leave Iran immediately amid rising tensions and shutdowns** -
 
The United States has advised its citizens in Iran to leave the country immediately due to a sharp deterioration in security conditions and prepare exit plans without relying on US government assistance. In a statement issued Friday, the US Virtual Embassy for Iran warned Americans face risks including interrogation, detention, and possible violence, while travel has become increasingly difficult. Authorities have also restricted mobile networks, landline communications, and nationwide internet access, while disruptions continue to affect road transport and flight operations. The advisory urges US citizens, if conditions permit, to consider land routes through neighboring countries such as Armenia and Turkey while avoiding travel toward Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran’s border areas with Pakistan. If departure is not possible, citizens are advised to remain in secure locations, stock food, water, medicine, and other essentials, and avoid unnecessary movement. The United States has long warned its citizens against travel to Iran due to the absence of diplomatic relations and the risk of detention, especially for dual nationals. Periodic regional tensions and internal security measures in Iran have previously led to communication shutdowns and travel disruptions, complicating evacuation or movement for foreign nationals. Officials stress that individuals still in Iran should closely monitor developments and prioritize personal safety as uncertainty surrounding the security situation continues.
 
**NOTE: This is a huge indicator that the U.S. is ready to engage in a kinetic conflict with Iran. GZB analysts had forecast this back in November if 2025 — that another U.S.strike would likely happen in 2026.
 
Recently, President Trump had warned the Iranian Regime, that if it continued to murder protesters, he would strike Iran.
 
Iran reacted by moving all its defenses into place. Trump then called off the strike.
This was a master class in “Disrupt Your Adversaries OODA Loop So They Give Away All Their Cards.”
 
Recon by feigned attack.
 
The U.S. over the past several months has been positioning Air, Naval, & Ground assets for a possible strike in Iran.
 
As of late January and early February 2026, the United States has intensified its naval presence near Iran in response to rising tensions, primarily positioning the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG-72) in the Northern Arabian Sea/Gulf of Oman region.
 
Here is a breakdown of the U.S. naval assets currently positioned near Iran:
 
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) Carrier Strike Group: This group acts as the main force, having moved from the South China Sea to the Middle East by late January 2026. It includes:
 
Carrier Air Wing Nine (CVW-9): Equipped with F-35C Lightning II stealth fighters, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft.
 
Destroyer Squadron 21: Including the guided-missile destroyers USS Spruance (DDG-111), USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112), and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG-121).
 
Guided-missile Cruiser: USS Mobile Bay (CG-53).
 
Additional Naval Assets:
 
Destroyers: The USS Delbert D. Black, USS McFaul, and USS Mitscher are in the region.
Littoral Combat Ships: USS Santa Barbara (LCS-32), USS Canberra (LCS-30), and USS Tulsa (LCS-16) are based in Bahrain for potential minesweeping duties.
 
Submarines: While positions are generally classified, reports indicate that at least one guided-missile submarine (SSGN) is likely in the region, capable of carrying 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
 
Regional Context:
 
These assets are operating in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, designed to deter Iranian activity and provide immediate strike capabilities in the region. Other reports indicate the U.S. has engaged in a significant "three-carrier" strategy, involving the USS Nimitz and USS Carl Vinson at various times in the wider region, though the Lincoln is the primary focus of the most recent, late-January 2026 reports.
 
The final assets put into place as of yesterday were A-10 Warthogs whim would be used to eliminate Iranian fast boats, sea-drones and suicide boats in the Strait of Hormuz.
This situation is developing and GZB analysts are monitoring it. Updates to follow.
 
HEZBOLLAH DEFIANCE
 
**Naim Qassem delivers defiant speech to mark anniversary of Mahdi Schools**-
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivered a speech on February 3 that marked the 33rd anniversary of the establishment of Hezbollah’s Mahdi School System, which, according to Qassem, now has “over 35,000 enrolled students.” The Hezbollah leader addressed several topics in his speech, including the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran and the fate of Hezbollah’s arms—sounding a defiant tone on both matters. In the first third of his speech, Qassem claimed that Iran, because it had established a just Islamic government seeking to champion the world’s downtrodden, was, in turn, promised a “great” divine victory during its current confrontation with the United States and Israel.
 
RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR
 
**The Kremlin continues to reject any meaningful security guarantees that would protect Ukraine from complete diplomatic or military capitulation** -
 
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on February 6 the Kremlin’s rejection of Western-provided security guarantees in Ukraine and reiterated the Kremlin’s support of the “security guarantees” that Russia agreed to in the April 2022 Istanbul talks. The 2022 Istanbul Protocol draft document did not provide the groundwork for meaningful security guarantees and would have left Ukraine defenseless against renewed aggression. The Istanbul Protocol draft stipulated that Russia – the aggressor in the war in Ukraine – would be treated as a neutral ”guarantor state” of Ukraine; that Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would have veto power over a mechanism to respond to future aggression in Ukraine; and that Ukraine commit to neutrality, severe restrictions on military size and composition, and never accepting military assistance from its allies. Lavrov’s February 6 statement is the latest in a series from senior Kremlin officials indicating that the Kremlin continues to view the 2022 Istanbul draft treaty as the basis for any future peace settlement and is unwilling to compromise on its demands of both Ukraine and NATO.
 
U.S. & CHINA
 
**Xi’s calls with Trump and Putin highlight China’s balancing amid great power rivalry** -
 
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s rare same-day conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin underscore Beijing’s bid to navigate between Washington and Moscow as both relationships face strain. Xi discussed energy cooperation with Putin and U.S.-China trade, Taiwan, and Ukraine with Trump, as the U.S.-Russia New START treaty expired this week. Analysts said Beijing seeks stability while maintaining strategic ties with Moscow. Trump’s team, meanwhile, is promoting a new “G2” framework even as it curbs Chinese influence through economic and security measures. Observers expect all three leaders may meet at November’s APEC summit in Shenzhen.
 
CHINA
 
**Former Bank of China Vice President Lin Jingzhen expelled from Communist Party, Xinhua says **-
 
Chinese state media Xinhua on Friday reported the expulsion of Former Bank of China Vice President Lin Jingzhen from the Communist Party. Lin, who retired from his Bank of China position last year, was removed for serious violation of discipline and law, a charge widely viewed as a euphemism for corruption.
 
SOUTH CHINA SEA
 
**Hainan official who played key role building South China Sea reefs faces corruption probe **- Chinese authorities have detained Xiao Jie, a senior official in Hainan, on suspicion of corruption, according to the country’s top disciplinary body. Xiao, who previously served as the first party chief and mayor of Sansha, played a prominent role in administering and developing contested Beijing-held territories in the South China Sea, including fiercely disputed reef construction and infrastructure projects. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said he is under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law.” His detention comes amid a broader anti-corruption drive in Hainan that has ensnared multiple senior officials in recent years.
 
CHINA — NEW TRANSPORT DRONE
 
**China’s new hybrid transport drone seen as potential ‘game changer’ near Taiwan **-
 
China has completed the maiden flight of its CH YH-1000S, billed as the world’s first hybrid-powered unmanned transport aircraft. State media said the drone’s gas-electric propulsion system increases range and payload while shortening takeoff distance. Analysts said the design could provide a logistical advantage in a potential Taiwan conflict by resupplying elite forces behind enemy lines. The CH YH-1000S, built by the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics, can carry 1.2 tons over 1,500 km and operate for more than ten hours. Developers say the project integrates drone and automotive technologies to reduce costs.
 
BENIN
 
**Benin**:
 
The Presidential majority swept all seats in National Assembly, local councils. Legislative and local elections 11 Jan proceeded peacefully. On 17 Jan the commission said two parties aligned with President Talon had won all 109 seats in National Assembly – 60 for Progressive Union for Renewal and 49 for Republican Bloc – with 36.7% voter turnout. The Constitutional Court on 19 Jan confirmed ruling coalition had won full control of National Assembly. Main opposition party Les Démocrates (LD) failed to obtain 20% of national vote required to be represented at National Assembly, thereby losing its last chance to participate in country’s formal political life for years to come.
 
NIGERIA
 
**Nigeria launches Operation Savannah Shield after Kwara massacre; abducted Christians freed **-
 
Nigeria announced a new military command to spearhead Operation Savannah Shield and deploy an army battalion to Kaiama after militants killed between 162 and 167 people in the predominantly Muslim villages of Woro and Nuku, where residents reportedly resisted extremist indoctrination and were subsequently attacked, their homes and shops looted and burned. The death toll could rise, as remains were being recovered. Amnesty International called the violence a major security failure as analysts warn Kwara is becoming a new frontier for armed groups. Separately, Kaduna’s governor said all 183 Christians abducted in three church raids last month have returned home, with 89 rescued Wednesday; authorities gave no details, and ransoms are sometimes reported in such cases.
 
NIGER
 
Niger: The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for last week’s coordinated attack on Diori Hamani International Airport and the adjacent Air Base 101 in Niamey, Niger’s capital, marking one of the most high-profile attacks for IS-affiliates in the Sahel region. Evidence from the attack footage indicates the potential presence of militants from other IS affiliates, including from Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP). IS-Sahel Province’s demonstrated ability to coordinate across affiliates, strike hardened targets, and sustain follow-up operations raises concerns about the group’s growing operational potential. Extremists from Nigeria and Chad participated in the attacks, the latter monitoring drones. The attack also highlights the fragility of the broader region. Several states are ruled by military juntas, backed by Russian mercenaries, whose cruelty has only escalated the violence. JNIM is also waging violent attacks in the region and occasionally against IS. The UN monitoring team has noticed an increasing cooperation between groups of IS, thanks to the al-Furqan Office, a Nigeria-based entity that provides the Islamic State with strategic guidance . While in the past Washington kept its distance from the regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, under the Trump administration, a shift appears to be underway, with the United States willing to engage with Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey.
 
DAESH/ISLAMIC STATE
 
**The threat of the Islamic State has “steadily increased.”
 
Terrorists have adapted their methods and are using artificial intelligence (UNOCT) **- The jihadist movement and its associated groups "continue to expand" in West Africa and the Sahel and "continue their attacks in Iraq and Syria", a UNOCT representative, Alexandre Zouev, told the Security Council on Wednesday, according to AFP, as reported by News.ro.
 
“In Afghanistan, the Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K) continues to pose one of the most significant threats to the region," he stressed, citing the anti-Semitic attack that killed 15 people in Australia in December, inspired by IS ideology. In late January, the Islamic State carried out a brief, unprecedented attack on Niger's main airport, confirming the group's power in the region.
 
Moldovan Natalia Gherman, in charge of terrorist issues at the UN Secretariat, presented how the jihadist organization has modernized its practices. "Daesh (the Arabic acronym for IS) and other terrorist groups have expanded their use of virtual assets, including cryptocurrencies, in parallel with the use of cyber tools, unmanned aircraft systems and advanced applications of artificial intelligence," she said. Artificial intelligence (AI) "is increasingly being used by terrorist groups for radicalization and recruitment purposes, with a particular focus on young people and children," she warned.
 
GZB INFOCUS: CUBA
 
This week, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel warned citizens of the need to sacrifice as adjustments are made in energy and food distribution to reflect current challenges. Nevertheless, the government expects to release a new plan for dealing with fuel shortages in the next couple of weeks. He also said his government was willing to speak with the U.S., provided there is no pressure or preconditions.
 
Cuba’s economic crisis has been years in the making. Between the decline in Venezuelan oil shipments and tourism post-pandemic, the country has lacked energy for basic economic production and U.S. dollars to import basic goods. However, the crisis is coming to a head now that U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened retaliation against any country exporting oil to Cuba. At the same time, in an effort not to alienate the average Cuban, the U.S. is also sending additional humanitarian aid to the island.
 
 Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.

 

—END REPORT

 

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February 6, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 6 FEBRUARY 2026
 
THE RELEVANCE OF OSINT
 
**From Secrets to Sensors: Why Open Source Data Must Drive Modern Intelligence **-
 
As the Pentagon accelerates AI-driven command-and-control modernization, the U.S. intelligence community could risk irrelevance unless it rapidly rebuilds itself around open-source and commercially available data. Renee Pruneau Novakoff, former Deputy Director of Intelligence for Sensitive Activities and Special Programs in Office of the Secretary of Defense, argues that to support real-time battlefield decision-making, intelligence must start with public data, use commercial analytics at scale, and fuse it with classified sources. Achieving this requires a major cultural shift, shared infrastructure, and leadership to overcome bureaucratic resistance and deliver a unified, real-time intelligence picture for warfighters.
 
VENEZUELA
 
**Maduro allies reportedly arrested in Venezuela, officials say **-
 
Venezuelan security services have questioned two politically connected businessmen, Raúl Gorrín and Alex Saab, both of whom face money laundering charges in the United States, according to officials familiar with the matter. Local reports indicate they were taken into custody in Caracas, though the current status of both men remains unclear and Saab’s legal team denied the detentions. An American official said Saab, who was held in the U.S. for over three years on bribery charges, is set to be extradited to the U.S. soon. Their apparent questioning is seen as signaling closer cooperation between Washington and Venezuela’s new caretaker leadership under Delcy Rodríguez. The move marks the first targeting of high-profile allies of leader Nicolás Maduro and has heightened uncertainty among the former regime’s loyalists.
 
ARGENTINA
 
** Argentina Seeks Extradition of Maduro from U.S. on Crimes Against Humanity Charges **-
 
An Argentine federal judge has formally requested the extradition of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from the United States to face charges of crimes against humanity, Associated Press reported. The Buenos Aires inquest accuses Maduro of overseeing torture, disappearances, and repression of opponents, invoking Argentina’s universal jurisdiction law. Maduro, captured by U.S. forces in January, is already jailed in New York on narcotics and conspiracy charges. While the Trump administration is unlikely to grant extradition, human rights advocates hailed the request as a landmark moment for Venezuelan victims seeking justice.
 
COLOMBIA
 
**Colombia: Alias ​​Pitufo was captured on the border with Ecuador: he had an Interpol red notice and is wanted by the U.S.**-
 
On the afternoon of February 3, Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez reported on his X account that one of the main leaders of the Border Commandos, led by "Araña", had been captured. Minister Sánchez described the arrest of “Pitufo” or “Marquetalia” as a “blow to narcoterrorism” in the region , which took place in Puerto Asís, in Putumayo.
**Colombia: A dump truck loaded with explosives was detonated on the Caloto-Villa Rica road: dissident groups are believed to be behind the terrorist attack** - On the afternoon of Tuesday, February 3, a dump truck loaded with explosive devices detonated on the road connecting the municipalities of Villa Rica and Caloto, in the north of the department of Cauca. According to information released by the Third Brigade of the National Army, the attack took place in the La Arboleda sector, near the Gualí intersection, an area where a military base is located. The Dagoberto Ramos Ortiz structure of the FARC dissidents operates in the region and has been identified as responsible for the attack.
 
RUSSIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY
 
**Russian Defense Firms Absent from Asia’s Premier Airshow -**
 
Russian arms manufacturers were notably absent from the 2026 Singapore Airshow for the second consecutive year, signaling Moscow’s diminished global defense footprint amid war-related sanctions and production strain. Analysts said the absence reflects Russia’s increasingly regionalized and constrained arms-export model, now focused on the Middle East and Africa. Once dominant in Asian markets, Russia’s sales to China and India have sharply declined. While Russian officials visited Myanmar this week to sign defense accords, major weapons exhibitions in Asia now proceed without a Russian presence. Moscow plans new showcases instead at Gulf defense expos.
 
THE SAHEL
 
**Sahel-based jihadists are extending their reach. Can a fractured region push back? **- Millions of lives have been upended in the last two decades across the Sahel region – which stretches across a band of countries from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea – due to the actions of terror groups and other violent non-state actors that have proliferated in countries with often weak central governments. The violence has been fuelled by a multitude of factors, including the instability and availability of ammunition and mercenaries that stemmed from the 2011 Nato intervention in Libya. In recent years, concern has been mounting within and outside government circles about armed groups extending their reach towards coastal west Africa. Earlier this month the United Nations said about 4 million people were now displaced across the Sahel region, with violence and insecurity driving increasing numbers from their homes. The current counterinsurgency approach is splintered: Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali – which has publicly engaged Russia’s Wagner mercenaries – have coalesced into the Association of Sahel States (AES), issuing passports and collaborating on military strategy. The trio were previously part of the G5 Sahel, which was dissolved in 2023 after the AES members’ exit, and the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), which “activated” a 5,000-troop standby force in March. “The more these jihadist threats shift southward, the more security measures will need to consider a more effective and truly regional approach to dealing with the issue,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, an Abuja-based analyst and predoctoral researcher at the International Centre for Tax and Development.
 
GZB INFOCUS: EPSTEIN LIKELY DID COMMIT SUICIDE — BUT WAS HE ORDERED TO?
 
**How Jeffrey Epstein's intelligence ties go back decades** -
 
Jeffrey Epstein discussed the UAE invading Qatar, obtained intelligence on a €500bn bailout to save the Euro before it happened, and appeared to have information that Russia tipped Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan off about a failed coup d’etat in 2016. These snippets into the conversations of the disgraced paedophile, who mysteriously died in his New York City jail cell in 2019, raise new questions about his ties to intelligence agencies. Millions of newly released files do not show Epstein clocking into a Mossad, MI6, or CIA office building. But he did not need to. Current and former ambassadors, world leaders, and moguls came to him, and his Caribbean island, where he trafficked young women for sexual abuse. The reality is that Epstein floated in a world that was unreachable and more elite than that of intelligence case officers and desk analysts. If current observers trying to make sense of Epstein’s links to intelligence agencies need an example, the closest might be The Night Manager, a mini-series based on the novel by John Le Carre. The main antagonist of the show is Richard Onslow Roper - a cut-glass, arms-dealing businessman who is an asset for members of British Intelligence and global corporations, even as he is hounded by other factions of MI6. (Middle East Eye) **NOTE:** - posted for a detailed look at Epstein's connections to intelligence organizations (primarily Mossad) and suspicions that he was an agent conducting blackmail operations. Link to article:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/how-
**NOTE: From the beginning of Epstein’s arrest to his murder and throughout the Ghislaine Maxwell trials, GZB has maintained that Epstein was likely an asset or informant for either the CIA, as/or multiple foreign intelligence agencies. Roy Black, Eric Shern and Alan Dershowitz all represented Epstein — at least 2 of them helped secure the 2008 plea deal Epstein received.
 
It could be very true that Epstein took his own life. Occam’s Razor — the simplest answer is usually the answer.
 
It could also be true that Epstein was ordered to take his own life and whoever handed down that order made sure cameras were off, guards were not looking and that the opportunity was prime.
 
Approximately 300 to 700+ inmates die by suicide annually in U.S. correctional facilities, with 340 suicides in state/federal prisons and 355 in local jails recorded in 2019. Suicide is a leading cause of death in local jails, accounting for 24-35% of deaths, while comprising 5-8% of deaths in state/federal prisons.
 
Key statistics on U.S. prisoner suicides include:
 
• Total Numbers: From 2000 to 2019, over 6,200 suicides occurred in local jails. In 2018, there were 311 suicides in state prisons.
 
• Rising Rates: Suicides in state prisons increased 85% between 2001 and 2018. From 2000 to 2019, suicides increased 85% in state prisons and 61% in federal prisons.
 
• Jail Specifics: More than half of all suicides in local jails occur within the first 30 days of incarceration.
 
• Demographics: The majority of individuals who die by suicide in custody are white males, and the most common method is hanging/strangulation.
 
• Risk Factors: Suicide rates in local jails are notably higher than in federal or state prisons, partly due to the high turnover and acute crisis, with rates reaching 50 per 100,000 inmates in 2014.
 
If Epstein was simply an elite pimp — this wouldn’t fly. His financial investment abilities are what drew a lot of prominent people into his circle. So it could be that not everyone involved with Epstein was a pedophile — some were involved with him for the dollah dollah bills, y’all.
 
That, is likely what made him unique and why he lasted so long. If he was just a sex trafficker he likely would have been ghosted a long time ago — simply because he had too much dirt on too many people.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
— END REPORT
 

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February 5, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 5 FEBRUARY 2026
 
MALI
 
**JNIM Maintains Pressure as Bamako and Washington Discuss Improved Cooperation
**
The Malian state remains in a tenuous position. The closing stages of last year saw JNIM apply unprecedented pressure on the government by attacking fuel imports, mines, manufacturing facilities, and other assets vital to the national economy.
President Assimi Goita has described as “hybrid, shifting, insidious” warfare on the economic front. JNIM fighters ambushed a large fuel convoy travelling on 29 January. According to reports, at least several dozen tankers were looted and destroyed in the attack. JNIM later claimed that two soldiers were killed; however, the perpetrators also allegedly executed 15 blindfolded truck drivers at point-blank range.
 
LOW COST DRONES
 
**Defense Department launches low-cost attack drone program **- The Pentagon has launched the first phase of its Drone Dominance Program, selecting 25 small technology and drone firms to compete to rapidly field large numbers of low cost one way attack drones. Beginning Feb. 18, military operators will evaluate systems at Fort Benning, with roughly $150 million in prototype orders expected. The initiative reflects Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s push to acquire affordable drones at speed and scale, reducing reliance on expensive munitions. The program aims to deliver hundreds of thousands of drones by 2027, drawing lessons from Ukraine’s extensive use of such systems and emphasizing rapid iteration driven by operational users.
 
VENEZUELA & CHINA
 
**Venezuela Assures China Its Investments Are Secure After Maduro’s Capture **
 
Venezuela’s ambassador to Beijing, Remigio Ceballos, pledged that Chinese trade and energy investments remain safe despite last month’s U.S. military raid that ousted former president Nicolás Maduro. Speaking in Beijing, Ceballos dismissed reports that Washington would dictate pricing for Venezuelan oil sold to China, insisting Caracas will set prices independently. He described the U.S. assault as “a warning to the entire world” but said cooperation with China continues across all sectors through an established bilateral commission. Beijing has condemned the U.S. action, while President Xi Jinping reaffirmed support for Latin American sovereignty during talks with Uruguay’s leader.
 
URUGUAY & CHINA
 
**Uruguay’s President Deepens Ties with China Despite Trump’s Warnings**
 
Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday, signing a dozen cooperation agreements in trade, science, and technology despite U.S. pressure to limit Chinese influence in Latin America. Xi called for a “multipolar world” and deeper strategic cooperation, while Orsi said Uruguay seeks “active international engagement.” The visit, accompanied by a 150-member delegation, makes Orsi the first Latin American leader to visit China since U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Analysts said the trip signals Uruguay’s refusal to be deterred by Washington as it strengthens ties with its top export market.
 
BOLIVIA
 
**Bolivia’s New Leader Launches ‘Capitalism for All’ Reforms to End Socialist Era **
 
Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz unveiled sweeping economic reforms to attract foreign investment and reverse nearly two decades of socialist policy. His “capitalism for all” program includes new oil, gas, and mining laws offering 50-50 risk-sharing with investors and a review of opaque lithium deals signed with China and Russia. Paz eliminated costly fuel subsidies, cut taxes, and raised the minimum wage, stabilizing the fiscal deficit and easing protests. Western nations and development banks have welcomed his shift toward market liberalization as Bolivia rebuilds ties with Washington and seeks to revive its resource-driven economy.
 
POLAND
 
**Poland detains defense ministry employee on suspicion of spying for Russia **
 
Polish authorities have detained a civilian employee of the Ministry of National Defense on suspicion of espionage linked to Russian and Belarusian intelligence services. The 60-year-old suspect worked in the ministry’s strategy and planning department and had access to sensitive defense and military modernization documents. He was arrested at the defense ministry headquarters in Warsaw, with searches conducted at his office and home. Prosecutors have charged him with spying, citing extensive evidence. The case underscores Poland’s growing concerns over Russian hybrid warfare, as officials report a rise in espionage, sabotage and cyber operations since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
 
ESTONIA
 
**Estonia detains ship heading for Russia suspected of smuggling **
 
Estonia has detained a Bahamian-flagged container ship in its internal waters on suspicion of smuggling, according to the Estonian Tax and Customs Board. The vessel, Baltic Spirit, was boarded by a police special unit and placed under national supervision for a customs inspection. Authorities said there were grounds to believe the ship may have been involved in smuggling linked to Ecuador. The refrigerated container ship was en route from Ecuador to St. Petersburg and is not part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” nor subject to EU sanctions. On Wednesday, it was anchored near Tallinn after arriving from Colombia.
 
DAESH/IS IN THE SAHEL
 
**Islamic State in the Sahel and the Dangers of Continued Regional Upheaval**
 
The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for last week’s coordinated attack on Diori Hamani International Airport and the adjacent Air Base 101 in Niamey, Niger’s capital, marking one of the most high-profile attacks for IS-affiliates in the Sahel region. Evidence from the attack footage indicates the potential presence of militants from other IS affiliates, including from Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP). IS-Sahel Province’s demonstrated ability to coordinate across affiliates, strike hardened targets, and sustain follow-up operations raises concerns about the group’s growing operational potential. While in the past Washington kept its distance from the regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, under the Trump administration, a shift appears to be underway, with the United States willing to engage with Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey.
 
LIBYA
 
**Iranian Navy Activity:**
 
Iran conducted two probing operations against the US Navy in the Persian Gulf, likely designed to test US Navy defensive reactions and demonstrate Iran’s ability to threaten US forces and assets. A probing action seeks to test the strength, disposition, and reactions of an opposing force. These two incidents may be the beginning of an Iranian maritime escalation that seeks to deter a US strike by demonstrating Iran’s capability to challenge US naval activity.
 
IRAN’S PROXIES
 
**Iran's Network Of Proxies 'Activated' As Possible War With US Looms**
 
Iran views a potential conflict with the United States as an existential threat, unlike the war in June, said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. That means Tehran is "ready to go all in and use whatever capacity it has, in terms of its own military capabilities, and at the same time the asymmetric capacity of the axis of resistance" to ensure its survival, said Azizi. There are already signs that Iran's allies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen are preparing for war in the event of a US attack on Tehran.
 
VIET NAM
 
**An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war**
 
A year after Vietnam elevated its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American “war of aggression” and considered the United States a “belligerent” power, according to a report released Tuesday. More than just exposing Hanoi’s duality in approach toward the U.S., the document confirms a deep-seated fear of external forces fomenting an uprising against the Communist leadership in a so-called “color revolution,” like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines. Other internal documents that The 88 Project, a human rights organization focused on human rights abuses in Vietnam, cited in its analysis point to similar concerns over U.S. motives in Vietnam.
 
HIZBUL MUJAHIDEEN LEADER DEAD
 
**Founding Hizbul Mujahideen commander dies in Islamabad, spotlight on ISI’s terror haven**  
 
Pakistan’s state-sponsored terror organisation Hizbul Mujahideen has suffered a significant setback with the death of its founding member and senior terrorist commander Qaiser Ahmed Mir, alias Mohammad Iqbal, in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. According to sources, the veteran Hizbul terrorist died after a prolonged battle with cancer. He had been living in Islamabad’s Tarlai Kalan area for nearly two decades after fleeing India. Qaiser Ahmed Mir was among the founding members of Hizbul Mujahideen when the outfit was formed in April 1990. Between 1990 and 2008, he remained active in the Kashmir Valley and emerged as a top Hizbul commander in Pulwama, Shopian and Rajpora. Security sources attribute to him a key role in targeted violence and the massacre of Kashmiri Pandits during the peak years of insurgency. After escaping to Pakistan, Mir was tasked with overseeing terrorist training operations in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province.
 
AFGHANISTAN
 
**Is Afghanistan a Strategic Blind Spot for the West?**
 
Since the disastrous U.S. withdrawal in August 2021 and the ensuing Taliban takeover of the country, Afghanistan has remained a strategic blind spot for Washington and for the West more broadly. With no U.S. presence in Afghanistan, there are limited opportunities for intelligence collection, especially human intelligence (HUMINT).
 
There are still concerns within the counterterrorism community that Afghanistan could once again emerge as a destination for foreign fighters. There is no shortage of foreign policy challenges for the Trump administration—Venezuela, Gaza, Ukraine—yet keeping tabs on developments in Afghanistan should not be a task merely relegated to the intelligence community.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

  
 

—END REPORT
 

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February 3, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 3 FEBRUARY 2026
 
U.S. - INDIA TRADE DEAL
 
The United States and India have struck a trade deal U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday, ending a monthslong stalemate in bilateral trade talks even as foreign powers are trying to lessen their economic dependence on Washington.
Effective immediately, the United States will reduce the total U.S. tariffs on India from 50 percent to 18 percent—eliminating the 25 percent duty imposed on New Delhi for its continued purchasing of Russian oil and reducing Trump’s 25 percent reciprocal tariff by 7 percentage points.
 
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday. “Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward.”
 
In exchange, India will cut its duties on U.S. goods to zero and will commit to “buy American” at a higher level, including by investing more than $500 billion in U.S. agriculture, coal, energy, and technology, among others. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Modi posted on X.
 
Trade talks between the two countries stalled last year over India’s refusal to stop purchasing Russian crude. Even after the United States imposed secondary tariffs last August to try and pressure New Delhi to terminate its relationship with Moscow, India continued importing roughly 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil each day, according to global trade data tracker Kpler.
 
But new pressure on the United States in the form of last week’s “mother of all deals” between India and the European Union may have incentivized the White House to reignite trade talks. After nearly 20 years, Brussels and New Delhi clinched a monumental free trade agreement last Tuesday that aimed to decrease both economies’ dependence on the United States. They join a larger shift in global trade policy similarly working to counter Trump’s trade war.
 
**NOTE: Monday’s U.S.-India deal appears to be a direct response to that growing trend, as Trump attempts to walk a line between his strong-arm trade policies and his reluctance to isolate the U.S. economy from its biggest partners.
 
This is a big deal and worth paying attention to as this will no doubt contribute to the decline of the Russian Federation — which had already started, but really went into high gear with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
 
CHINA’S RENMINBI AMBITIONS
 
**Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status**
 
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has called for the renminbi to become a global reserve currency, outlining his clearest vision yet for elevating China’s role in the international monetary system. Writing in the Communist Party journal Qiushi, Xi said Beijing must build a “powerful currency” supported by a strong central bank, globally competitive financial institutions, and influential financial centers. The comments come as global markets reassess reliance on the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical and trade tensions. While the renminbi has expanded its role in trade finance, it remains marginal in global reserves, highlighting the significant reforms analysts say China would need to achieve Xi’s ambition.
 
NOTE:**This is also fueling some "pundits" talking points about China out to destroy America. Note the final statement that this is not an overnight achievement and that it will not replace the dollar.
 
FRANCE SEIZES RUSSIAN SHADOW FLEET TANKER
 
France has seized a shadow fleet tanker suspected of carrying sanctioned oil under a false flag and has taken it to Marseille. Should this ship be formally impounded, the entirety of the shadow fleet would fall.
 
If a precedent is set here, everyone could begin detaining similar vessels. And it wouldn't be hard to rapidly clear the waters of these vessels via major maritime choke points. A maritime services firm has kindly offered to legally take possession of seized shadow fleet ships and dismantle them (most of these floating rust-buckets should have been scrapped years ago, but instead were used to evade sanctions).
 
So, the shadow fleet could fall within months, but that creates a new series of problems. That's 5 million barrels per day of crude going offline very quickly, possibly causing global energy markets to become volatile.
 
**NOTE: The Trump administration and the “drill baby drill” policies being laid out for more harvesting of fossil fuels won’t fill that gap alone.
 
But the genius of the current administration’s recent snatch and grab of Maduro and forcing regime change — or at least cooperation with his replacement coupled with repairing the oil & gas infrastructure and putting it to 100% production back online from its current single digit production capacity, will have a huge impact.
 
Also, the recent decision by the high court in Panama to cooperate with the U.S. and effectively take power and control if ports and the canal itself, will have a major impact in filling that void.
 
PANAMA CANAL UPDATE
 
**Maersk to Temporarily Operate Panama Canal Ports After Court Ruling**
 
Danish shipping giant Maersk will assume temporary control of the Balboa and Cristobal ports on the Panama Canal after Panama’s Supreme Court ruled that concessions held by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings were unconstitutional. President José Raúl Mulino assured that operations will continue without disruption while a new bidding process is organized. The decision followed an audit alleging financial irregularities in the 2021 renewal of CK Hutchison’s 25-year concession. The United States welcomed the ruling as advancing its goal of limiting Chinese influence over the strategic waterway, while Beijing vowed to defend its companies’ interests.
 
CHINESE MINING COMPANY IN NICARAGUA
 
**Chinese mining company seizes property from residents of Rosita. “We feel Defenseless, ” residents complain.**  
 
During the last few weeks, men and women dressed in orange vests, identified as workers of the Chinese mining company Santa Rita Mining Company Sociedad Anónima, have entered the properties of farmers to demarcate them in the mining town of Rosita, in the North Caribbean of Nicaragua, according to those affected. One of the victims, who agreed to speak under the pseudonym “Pedro,” stated that the fences surrounding their land are torn down and a boundary marker is placed to indicate that their property has been reduced because “the other part” belongs to the company.
 
IRAN & THE EU MILITARY
 
**Iran classes EU armies as terrorist groups** - The speaker of Iran's parliament said on Sunday that Tehran now sees all European Union militaries as terrorist groups. The announcement by Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf comes after the EU declared Iran's paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization over its violent suppression of nationwide anti-government protests.
 
BALOCHISTAN
 
**Deadly gun and bomb attacks hit Pakistan's Balochistan province**  
 
A series of gun and bomb attacks across Pakistan's south-western Balochistan province have killed 31 civilians and 17 security service personnel, the region's Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti says. Security forces responding to the violence killed at least 145 attackers, according to Bugti. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) rebel group had earlier said it was behind the attacks, claiming dozens of soldiers were killed.
 
INDIA: TERRORISM
 
**Manipur, India: Kuki Revolutionary Army leader and PREPAK cadre arrested in joint operations**  
 
A joint team of Central security forces and Manipur Police arrested a leader of the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA) and a cadre of the banned Revolutionary People’s Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) during operations across two districts in Manipur, officials reported on Sunday. The individuals were apprehended with arms and ammunition over the past 48 hours. In the first phase of the operation, Manipur Police arrested a self-styled Sergeant Major of the KRA, identified as Lamginlal Chongloi (36), a resident of New Saikul village, from the Saikul–Keitheimanbi bridge area in Kangpokpi district.
 
SYRIA
 
**Syria arrests group behind Mezzeh airport attacks, weapons traced to Hezbollah **- Syrian authorities said they have arrested a group responsible for repeated rocket strikes on Damascus’s Mezzeh military airport, with investigators tracing the recovered weapons to Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Interior Ministry reported that security units detained all suspects after monitoring several launch sites around the capital and seized drones allegedly prepared for future attacks. Hezbollah denied any involvement, saying it has no active presence in Syria. Security officials suggested the weapons may have come from stockpiles left behind after Hezbollah’s partial withdrawal. The arrests follow months of escalating security incidents near Damascus amid shifting regional alliances.
 
AFRICOM AIRSTRIKES IN SOMALIA
 
**Rising ISIS threats to US homeland drive AFRICOM airstrikes against terrorists in Somalia**- The U.S. is mounting an increasing blitz of air attacks and military missions against Islamist terrorists in Somalia to reduce the threat of jihadi attacks on the U.S. homeland. The terrorists are said to be mainly affiliated with Islamic State (ISIS) or al Qaeda. This is according to U.S. Army Lt. Gen. John Brennan, the second highest-ranking officer at U.S. Africa Command, who talked exclusively last week to Fox News Digital. Brennan, a former U.S. Special Forces leader who served in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, confirmed, "There's ISIS-inspired threats. They plot against the United States homeland as well as Europe. So that's kind of the nexus of the threat." In Somalia, the Islamic State is represented by ISIS-Somalia. "We've had a lot of success targeting that network, ISIS-Somalia," he said. The focus of Islamist terror has moved from the Middle East to Africa, and specifically to Somalia, Brennan told Fox News Digital. "The caliph — absolute leader — of the global ISIS network, Abdulqadir Mumin, is a Somali, and he is in the (Somali) Golis Mountains along with a lot of his key leaders. And from that location they direct terrorist activities, not just across Africa. He is directing global ISIS operations that go to the Far East, Europe and the U.S."
 
GZB INFOCUS: CHINA EMBEDDED IN ARCTIC
 
• Russia, despite all the horrible things it does, is not able to challenge Canada without its partner. Carney was quick to name China as the biggest security threat to his country during a federal election debate last April. At Davos, however, he was not willing to talk about China posing a danger to his country.
 
• Carney had it right the first time: Canada's top threat is China.
 
• At the top of the world, Russia and China are close partners.
 
• China is now studying and surveying Arctic waters to help its submarines both navigate and evade detection.
 
• Beijing has had Canada in its sights for a long time, and it has not limited its threatening activities to the seas.
 
• “Canada's underfunding stems from post-Cold War complacency, reliance on the U.S., and prioritization of social programs over military defense." — Charles Burton, Sinopsis think tank, to Gatestone, January 2026.
 
**NOTE: This is exactly why Greenland is strategically imperative to North America — the U.S. and Canada. China has been waging unrestricted warfare on the U.S.in the grey zone for decades. Most Americans are to distracted by mainstream media junk info and uneducated in foreign policy to grasp the big picture threat posed by China’s “Tian Xa” (All Under Heaven) Global Order ambitions to replace the U.S. as the World Superpower. The Belt Road Initiative is just one facet of that. China’s Arctic Silk Road is a strategic piece in that plan.
 
We cannot have Chinese submarines with freedom of navigation to traverse through Arctic waters with impunity, unchecked.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.

 
— END REPORT

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February 2, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 2 FEBRUARY 2026
 
CTP MIDDLE EAST BRIEF
 
ISW Key Takeaways:
 
US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations:Iran has shown little willingness to concede to US demands on the missile program, regional proxy network, and nuclear capabilities. These three items form the long-standing pillars of Iranian defense strategy, and changing them would require a long strategic rethink in Tehran.
 
Iranian-Russian Cooperation: Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary (SNSC) Ali Larijani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on January 30 to discuss current developments and bilateral economic ties, according to Iranian and Russian media. Larijani’s visit to Russia comes amid a flurry of diplomatic efforts by Iranian officials to avert US military action against Iran.
 
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Integration into the Syrian State:
 
The Syrian government has compelled moderate Kurdish leaders to drop their opposition to Syrian President Ahmed al Shara’s model of state centralization. Several indicators suggest that hardline SDF leaders may refuse to abide by the SDF’s new agreement to integrate, which risks instigating new conflict between government forces and Kurdish fighters as the agreement is implemented.
 
Nouri al Maliki’s Aims for the Iraqi Premiership: State of Law Coalition head and former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki appears to be attempting to preserve his nomination as prime minister-designate amid US and domestic opposition. A State of Law parliamentarian threatened Parliament Speaker and Progress Party member Hebet al Halbousi’s position if the Progress Party does not support Maliki for the premiership.
 
IRAN’S NUCLEAR SITES
 
**Satellite photos show activity at Iran nuclear sites as tensions rise over protest crackdown**
 
As tensions soar over Iran's bloody crackdown on nationwide protests, satellite images show activity at two Iranian nuclear sites bombed last year by Israel and the United States that may be a sign of Tehran trying to obscure efforts to salvage any materials remaining there. The images from Planet Labs PBC show that roofs have been built over two damaged buildings at the Isfahan and Natanz facilities, the first major activity noticeable by satellite at any of the country's stricken nuclear sites since Israel's 12-day war with Iran in June. Those coverings block satellites from seeing what's happening on the ground — right now, it's the only way for inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the sites, as Iran has prevented access. The new roofs do not appear to be a sign of reconstruction starting at the heavily damaged facilities, experts who examined the sites said. Instead, they are likely part of Iran's efforts "to assess whether key assets — such as limited stocks of highly enriched uranium — survived the strikes," said Andrea Stricker, who studies Iran for the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which has been sanctioned by Tehran.
 
GLOBAL BRIEF
 
RUSSIAN TANKERS IN THE NORTH SEA
 
At least eight tankers sanctioned for transporting illegal Russian oil exports are currently moving through the English Channel, despite the UK government saying disrupting the so-called “shadow fleet” is a priority.
 
Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has used hundreds of ageing tankers with obscured ownership - known as the shadow fleet - to evade sanctions on oil exports.
The UK government has pledged to take new "assertive actions" against shadow fleet vessels and the BBC understands officials have received legal advice that the tankers can be boarded and seized.
 
But that authority has yet to be used and on Friday morning ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed eight tankers sanctioned by the UK are currently moving through the Channel. A further four tankers appear to be heading towards the passage from the North Sea.
 
**NOTE: Some of the tankers - such as Kusto, a 21-year-old crude oil carrier currently sailing south of the Isle of Wight - have made repeated voyages through the Channel over the past year.
 
The Kusto is listed on the tracking site MarineTraffic as having picked up its cargo at the Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga 10 days ago.
 
NIGER AIRPORT ATTACK
 
**Niger Accuses France, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire of Sponsoring Airport Attack**
 
Niger's military ruler, Abdourahamane Tiani, has accused the presidents of France, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire of sponsoring an attack on Niamey international airport. Armed men on motorcycles attacked Diori Hamani International Airport, outside Niger's capital Niamey, shortly before midnight on Wednesday.The defence ministry said four members of the security forces were injured, 20 attackers were killed and 11 people were arrested during what security sources described as a terrorist attack.State television said one of the attackers killed was a French national, without providing evidence.
 
After visiting the air base, Tiani thanked Russia for helping repel the attack."We commend all the defence and security forces, as well as Russian partners who defended their security sector with professionalism," he said on state radio. He accused French President Emmanuel Macron, Benin's President Patrice Talon and Cote d'Ivoire's President Alassane Ouattara of backing the attackers. "We remind the sponsors of these mercenaries, notably Emmanuel Macron, Patrice Talon and Alassane Ouattara: we've heard them bark, they should be ready to hear us roar," he said.
 
Analysts said the attackers may have been trying to destroy military drones stationed at the base. Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said drones had become central to the conflict between armies and jihadist groups."Drones have become a game changer for both sides, army and jihadists, so the attackers wanted to eliminate the latest Turkish arms acquired by Niger recently.The attackers may also have been drawn to a shipment of uranium that has been stuck at the airport amid legal and diplomatic disputes with France, being Niger a major producer of uranium.
 
**NOTE: Niger embraces Russia for uranium production and no longer cooperated with France.
 
LEBANON
 
**Reports: Hezbollah detains Lebanese security personnel seeking to inspect suspicious cargo**
 
Hezbollah prevented Lebanese authorities in Beirut from inspecting two suspicious vehicles allegedly carrying weapons until after the group diverted and emptied their contents, according to several Lebanese media reports. The incident reportedly occurred on January 23 in the Tayouneh neighborhood, a major traffic junction straddling the political-sectarian fault line between the Lebanese capital’s Hezbollah-dominated southern Shiite suburbs and its predominantly Christian neighborhoods.
These reports undermine recent claims by the Lebanese government that Hezbollah’s disarmament is well underway. According to MTV Lebanon and Beirut Time, two Lebanese media outlets with an anti-Hezbollah orientation, a patrol belonging to the Internal Security Forces (ISF) Judicial Police Unit’s Office for Combating International Theft Crimes became suspicious after observing two unmarked Toyota freight trucks with tinted windows parked for some time opposite the Lebanese Armed Forces barracks at Tayouneh Junction. The patrol, having obtained authorization from Lebanese authorities, approached the two vehicles, intending to detain and inspect them. Quoting unnamed “security officials,” Al Jadeed, a TV station sometimes sympathetic to Hezbollah, claimed the vehicles were two Toyota sedans, not trucks.
 
BALOCHISTAN
 
**41 militants killed in Pakistan military raids in the country’s southwest** - Pakistan’s security forces have raided two militant hideouts in the country’s southwest, killing 41 insurgents in separate gunbattles, the military said Friday. The first raid left 30 insurgents dead in Panjgur district in Balochistan province, according to a military statement. It said that 11 more militants were killed in a second operation in Harnai district in Balochistan.
 
**NOTE We at GZB/Gathering Storm Analysts group, use open-source intelligence, (OSINT) satellite imagery, (IMINT) fact-checking and data analysis to help report complex stories. We try an include SAT photos, maps and relevant graphics as often as possible.
 
EU ECONOMIC UPDATE
 
Gross domestic product in the European Union grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 relative to the previous quarter, demonstrating resilience in the face of immense challenges, including trade disputes with the U.S. and fierce competition from China. Denmark saw the highest rate of growth, driven by its pharmaceutical industry.
However, growth across the Continent was again highly uneven. While less economically developed countries surged ahead (in Poland, for example, household consumption and rising consumer sentiment fueled increases in GDP and employment), key European heavyweights remain in limbo. In Germany, the EU’s traditional economic engine, unemployment reached a 12-year high, and political instability in France is also leaving its mark on growth. Additionally, Europe’s shift away from cheaper Russian energy has left it dependent on a limited number of costlier alternatives.
 
GZB INFOCUS: What’s Worrying Billionaires the Most in 2026?
 
Key Takeaways:
 
• Trade tensions, geopolitics/conflict, and policy uncertainty top the list of risks worrying billionaires in 2026.
 
• Regional concerns vary, with tariffs dominating in Asia-Pacific and inflation and conflict leading fears in the Americas.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be prepared to respond and recover to any scenario.
 
No one is coming. It’s up to us.

 
—END REPORT
 

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January 29.2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 29 JANUARY 2026
 

U.S. PIVOT TO CHINA
 
A year into Trump presidency, 'pivot to China' gathers pace** - China has leveraged President Trump’s return to an “America First” agenda to expand trade ties beyond the United States, posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. As U.S. tariffs and diplomatic frictions strained Washington’s relations with allies, Beijing deepened engagement with partners including Canada, India, and the European Union, boosting exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Analysts say China has positioned itself as a more predictable trade partner, supporting steady growth despite domestic economic headwinds. However, foreign policy experts caution that lingering concerns over China’s trade practices and coercive behavior limit how far this diplomatic opening can go.
 
CHINA MILITARIZING ANTELOPE REEF
 
China Appears Set on Militarizing Another Reef in the South China Sea** - Satellite imagery indicates China is preparing to reclaim land at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, signaling plans for another military base in the hotly contested South China Sea. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative reports dredging began in late 2025, with new infrastructure and berthing access visible this month. Analysts say the base could host radar, helipads, and naval vessels, expanding Beijing’s network of fortified outposts. Separately, China has coordinated massive “floating barriers” of fishing boats near Taiwan, demonstrating how its maritime militia could support blockade or combat operations in future conflicts.
 
U.S. DEPLOYMENTS TO THE MIDDLE EAST
 
The United States is deploying jet fighters, air defenses, and an air carrier with thousands of troops to the Middle East, in a move that has heightened tensions with Iran and increased the likelihood of military action, experts say.** - Experts say the military buildup along with planned US naval exercises in the region increases the pressure on Iran and provides more offensive military options if Washington chooses to attack Iran. “This can be a message to Iran that we’re ready, our capabilities are in place,” Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. Nadimi added that the chances of US strikes on Iran were “very high,” pointing to the “overtly aggressive” military buildup in the Persian Gulf. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying destroyers are headed toward the Middle East carrying over 5,000 troops. US Central Command has said that F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets were deployed to the region. Meanwhile, the US Air Force said on January 25 that it was set to launch a multiday military exercise across the Middle East “to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower” in the region.
 
FRENCH CARRIER STRIKE GROUP
 
The French Navy (Marine Nationale) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) set sail on 27 January to take part in the exercise ORION 26. ORION 26 is a joint and combined high intensity warfare exercise set to take place in the Atlantic.
 
The French Navy did not officially disclose the exact composition of the CSG for ORION 26, but Toulon-based photographer and regular contributor to Naval News, Hervé Dermoune, witnessed the following vessels departing the naval base this morning:
 
• Aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91),
 
• Air Defense FREMM Frigate Alsace (D652),
 
• Horizon type air defense destroyer Chevalier Paul (D621),
 
• Horizon type air defense destroyer (Italian Navy) Andrea Doria (D553)
 
• and the new replenishment vessel (known as BRF) Jacques Chevallier (A725).
 
The focus for the escort of the CSG during ORION 26 seems to be on air defense, with three dedicated air defender vessels, which is somewhat unusual and noteworthy. As usual, a nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) is likely part of the CSG as well.
According to a French Navy statement, ORION 26 will take place over the next few weeks in the Atlantic zone, “a strategic area of maneuver for the defense of European interests”. This exercise will bring together French forces alongside their allies and regional partners.
 
The statement further reads “ORION 26 aims to test the French armed forces’ ability to conduct high-intensity operations in a joint and combined environment, encompassing all types of conflict zones and environments. The CSG’s participation in ORION 26 will test its operational capabilities within a complex deployment. This deployment contributes to the preparation of French armed forces and to the support of a large-scale operational maneuver conducted on the national territory and in its immediate vicinity”.
 
The French Navy also highlighted the important of the CSG, calling it a unique strategic asset in Europe: “Capable of long-range and sustained deployments, the carrier strike group is able to carry out a variety of missions, including control of maritime and air spaces and conducting deep strikes, even at very long ranges. Mobile, versatile, resilient, and constantly adapting to threats, the carrier strike group guarantees France, in cooperation with its allies, an essential autonomous capability for assessment and action.”
 
Overall, ORION 26 will involve,
 
• For the army:
 
◦ 3 combined armed brigades
◦ 2150 tactical vehicles
◦ 40 helicopters
◦ 1200 drones
• For the navy:
◦ 1 CSG
◦ 2 LHDs
◦ 50 aircraft
◦ 25 major combatants
• For the air force:
◦ 50 aircraft
◦ 2 MALE drones
◦ 6 air defense systems
◦ 20 space-based sensors
 
In addition, 24 countries are participating to ORION 26.
 
**NOTE: ORION 26 scenario
 
In Europe, Mercury, an expansionist country, seeks to destabilize its neighbor Arnland in order to maintain its influence in the region and prevent Arnland’s accession to the European Union. During 2025, Mercury intensified its hybrid operations and increased its support for militias operating within Arnland. At the request of this ally, on January 6, 2026, France assumed leadership of the ORION coalition to ensure its defense and preserve the European balance.
 
ORION 26 embodies this rise in power, from invisible warfare to high-intensity confrontation. In a context where engagement in a high-intensity conflict could become a reality, ORION 26 responds to the need to intensify and toughen the level of preparedness of the French armed forces.
 
IRANIAN DRILLS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
 
**Iran to hold live-fire drills in Strait of Hormuz with US armada in Middle East**  
Iran will conduct live-fire military drills next week in the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump announced a U.S. armada was on its way to the region amid escalating tensions with Tehran. The exercises will be carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval forces, Iranian state media reported Thursday. The announcement came one day after Trump said a large naval force, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, was heading toward Iran. Iran warned last week that it would respond "with everything we have" to any new U.S. military attack, accusing Washington and its allies of exploiting recent unrest to push the region toward a wider war. "As Iranians grieve their loved ones and rebuild what has been destroyed, another threat looms: the final failure of diplomacy. Unlike the restraint Iran showed in June 2025, our powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack," Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said.
 
IRANIAN EXECUTION
 
**Iran executes man accused of spying for Israel** - Iran on Jan. 28 executed a man convicted of spying for Israel. The judiciary’s Mizan news outlet said Hamidreza Sabet Esmaeilipour was hanged after being found guilty of cooperating with Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad, including transferring classified information. Iranian authorities said the sentence followed legal procedures and was upheld by the Supreme Court. Executions linked to alleged Israeli espionage have increased since last year, particularly after direct clashes involving Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, reflecting the deepening shadow conflict between the two adversaries.
 
CHINA’S AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
 
**Fujian Delong Aviation Technology Co., Ltd.** - A China-based aerospace company controlled by Chen Congming (Congming Chen); has been the parent company of China-based Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co., Ltd., which according to the European Union is suspected of sharing engine designs with entities producing Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Develops and manufactures aviation equipment; parent company of Germany-based Limbach Flugmotoren GmbH, whose products include the L275 and L550 series of engines. According to the European Union, Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co. is suspected of sharing the L550 engine design with entities involved in producing engines for Shahed-136 UAVs, an Iranian-designed UAV developed by Shahed Aviation Industries for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force; according to the European Union, L550 engines were supplied by Xiamen Limbach to a Russian militay-industrial producer for manufacturing Garpiya-3 (G-3) long-range attack drones for the Russian military.
 
UKRAINIAN DRONES
 
**Ukraine says more than 80% of enemy targets now destroyed by drones **- Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said drones now account for over 80% of enemy targets destroyed, reflecting a major technological shift in the nearly five-year war with Russia. Ukrainian forces recorded more than 819,000 confirmed drone hits in 2025, with roughly a third targeting enemy personnel. President Volodymyr Zelensky said a points-based system rewards verified strikes through the Army of Drones program, allowing units to redeem equipment via an online marketplace. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said the system offers real battlefield data for decision-making and will expand to include air defense and sniper performance.
 
EU MILITARY POWER DEFICIT
 
EU heavyweights deepen rift with Rutte over Europe’s military power** - Senior European Union officials warned on Jan. 28 that Europe must build its own military strength to adapt to a more dangerous global environment and a less dependable United States, sharpening differences with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. European Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas argued that the continent must assume greater responsibility for its own defense and develop a stronger European pillar within NATO. They said U.S. policy shifts represent a structural change, requiring higher defense spending, closer coordination, and reduced reliance on American military, intelligence, and logistics support.
 
SWITZERLAND TAX HIKES TO BOOST DEFENSE SPENDING
 
**Switzerland to hike sales tax to boost defense spending **- Switzerland plans to significantly increase defense and security spending, committing an additional 31 billion Swiss francs ($40.4 billion) from 2028 as it responds to a worsening global security environment. The government said the funds would be financed by a 0.8 percentage point increase in sales tax for 10 years, and would raise defense spending to roughly 1.3–1.5% of GDP. The Federal Council cited growing risks from geopolitical tensions, cyber threats, and espionage. Defense Minister Martin Pfister said the focus would be on closing critical capability gaps, including countering drones, strengthening cyber defenses, and improving intelligence. The plan still requires parliamentary approval and could face a public referendum.
 
CHINA FILLING THE VACCUM
 
China’s Hidden Hand: Covert Deals, Saudi Channels, and the New Anti‑US Axis** - US‑aligned intelligence assessments indicate that the August 15, 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan triggered a rapid and far‑reaching recalibration of geopolitical alignments across the Middle East, South Asia, and the wider Eurasian system. While Washington’s abrupt disengagement signaled a reduced willingness to sustain long-term military commitments, it simultaneously created a strategic vacuum that China moved to exploit with exceptional speed, discipline, and strategic clarity.
 
Within weeks of the withdrawal, China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), supported by Russian intelligence services, initiated a coordinated campaign to reposition China as the primary external power shaping regional security, diplomacy, and economic architecture. Beijing’s actions were not opportunistic—they reflected a pre‑planned, multi‑theater strategy designed to expand Chinese influence, protect the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and construct a durable counter‑US alignment. Since late 2021, China has led or co‑led more than two dozen covert intelligence meetings with Russia and an additional series of engagements with Iran, North Korea, and regional partners. Beijing hosted the majority of intelligence‑focused sessions, underscoring its role as the central coordinator of this emerging bloc. Crucially, intelligence reporting indicates that China also engaged covertly with the House of Saud, conducting discreet diplomatic and intelligence exchanges.
 
GRAY ZONE BRIEF 29 JANUARY 2026
 
The U.S. Army will deploy an Abrams-equipped detachment as part of its normal rotational forces in Romania, marking a significant strengthening of the armoured warfare capabilities in the country bordering the current war zone in Ukraine. Romanian Chief of the Defence Staff Gheorghita Vlad referred to this as an enhancement of the “quality and lethality” of U.S. rotational forces in the country, highlighting that there will be be no significant changes to the number of U.S. Army personnel in the country. The decision to deploy the tanks signals that the United States Armed Forces are prioritising combat power over personnel numbers, at a time when significant reductions to the numbers of personnel in Europe are being planned. Romania remains on the frontlines of any potential conflict between NATO and Russia in Europe, with its position on the Black Sea, and within range of tactical missile and rocket artillery strikes from Crimea, making the NATO presence there highly significant.
 
**NOTE: In early December the U.S. Army deployed M1A2 Abrams tanks to participate in live-fire exercise in Lithuania, during which the tanks demonstrated the engagement capabilities of their 120mm main guns. The exercises occurred less then ten days after U.S. Army M1A2 Abrams tank conducted intensive training at the Bemowo Piskie Training Area in neighbouring Poland under the Forward Land Forces expansion exercise, for which tanks were delivered from multiple locations across Poland to take part. Despite the tank’s central position in U.S. Army operational planning, its viability for high intensity combat has increasingly been questioned. By early June 2025 the Ukrainian Army was assessed to have lost 87% of the Abrams tanks it had been supplied, despite prior Western expectations that the vehicles could represent a game changer in the theatre. The U.S. Army subsequently cancelled plans for further modernisation of the M1A2 to deeply revise the Abrams’ design, instead financing the development of the M1E3 Abrams next generation variant. The first images of the new variant were released in mid-January 2026.
 
NEXT GEN ABRAHMS
 
The M1A3 is the most revolutionary new tank developed in the Western world since the 1970s, with analysts have widely assessed that the obsolescence of conventional Western tank designs seen in the Ukrainian theatre was a primary factor prompting the particularly radical redesign. The new variant has prioritised many of the same capabilities as the new Chinese Type 100 main battle tank which was confirmed in September to have entered service. It remains uncertain on what timeline the M1E3 will be brought into service, whether it will be affordable in significant numbers, and whether the tanks will eventually be deployed in the European theatre.
 
Like the United States, Russia has also fallen far behind China in the capabilities of its main battle tanks, and while its T-90M tank introduced into service April 2020 represented a significant improvement over prior designs, plans to bring the much more complex and revolutionary T-14 tank into serial production and widespread service appear to have been postponed indefinitely. The T-14 program had promised vastly improved firepower, mobility, situational awareness and crew protection levels, and initially caused significant concerns in the Western world before the Russian Defence Ministry appeared to abandon plans for development in the early 2020s.
 
GZB INFOCUS: U.S. MONSTER COPPER MINE
 
When people hear “monster mine,” they usually imagine gold rush stories or piles of shiny treasure. But this one isn’t about sparkle or jewelry. It’s about something far less glamorous, yet far more important. While most eyes stay fixed on gold and silver, this massive mine quietly supplies a metal that modern life can’t function without. It doesn’t shine, it doesn’t trend, and yet it sits at the center of a growing global obsession that few people talk about.
 
The invisible material behind everyday progress
 
The modern world feels light and digital. You tap a screen, a result appears, and everything feels instant. But behind that smooth experience are physical systems working nonstop. a hidden physical layer supports every search, message, and calculation.
 
Electric grids are expanding, cities are upgrading their infrastructure, and clean energy projects are spreading fast. None of this works unless electricity can move safely and efficiently, again and again, without failure.
 
Solar panels are only “half the truth” — a homeowner has a solution to generate energy all the time, using a simple setup (https://www.ecoportal.net/en/homeowner-swaps-everything-for-wind/16625/)
 
Solar and wind power are “over” — they’re creating “living power” and opening the door to something surreal Portugal has an “energy secret” — they produce massive power with something nobody believed in, but it’s brilliant
 
When demand starts growing faster than expected
 
For a long time, supply and demand stayed in balance. Mines produced enough, industries planned ahead, and there was little reason to worry. Then new technologies arrived all at once. pressure building quietly began to show.
 
At the same time, mining became harder. New projects take years to approve, ore quality has declined, and investment slowed. Supply didn’t collapse, but it stopped growing fast enough to keep up.
 
Why shortages are no longer just a theory.
 
Experts now warn this isn’t a temporary issue. Forecasts suggest a real shortage forming within the next decade. a supply gap formingcould affect far more than just mining companies.
 
Power transmission, renewable energy, and large infrastructure projects all compete for the same material. Finding alternatives sounds simple, but replacing it at scale is anything but easy.
 
The “monster mine” behind the digital boom
 
This is where the monster mine from the title comes into focus. The explosion of artificial intelligence, massive computing systems, and endless data centers has pushed demand into overdrive. Tools like AI assistants run on huge server farms that consume enormous amounts of electricity, and electricity needs one thing above all else: huge amounts of copper.
 
Near Salt Lake City, Utah, sits the Kennecott Mine, one of the largest open-pit copper mines on Earth. It has been operating for over 100 years and has already produced more than 19 million tons of copper. Its pit is so massive it can be seen from space. In a world suddenly desperate for copper, this monster mine looks less like history and more like a strategic lifeline.
 
Why this metal suddenly matters to everyone
 
The future is often described as smart, clean, and digital. But that future still depends on what comes out of the ground. a fragile dependency ties cutting-edge technology to very old materials.
The Kennecott Mine shows how rare long-lasting, high-volume copper sources have become. It also highlights a growing risk. If supply cannot keep up with demand, copper could become one of the biggest limits on global progress.
 
In a world chasing smarter machines and cleaner power, the most wanted resource isn’t shiny or famous. It’s the quiet metal everyone needs, and not everyone can get enough of it.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
—END REPORT
 
 

 

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January 28, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 28 JANUARY 2026
 
RIOTING CRIMINALS ARRESTED IN MINNESOTA
 
Several of the agitators arrested outside a Minnesota hotel where they believed Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino was staying have criminal records, with one arrestee openly embracing a "disrupt disturb resist" slogan on Instagram.
 
The agitators were outside the SpringHill Suites by Marriott in Maple Grove, Minnesota, on Monday night where they had thought Bovino was staying. Arrests were made after authorities said the demonstration was "no longer considered peaceful," and declared it an unlawful assembly.
 
Maple Grove police said its officers were responding to reports of a protest at the hotel, adding that it escalated when agitators allegedly began damaging property and throwing objects at officers.
 
Several people were arrested after they allegedly did not leave once an unlawful assembly and dispersal order was issued, officials said.
 
13 individuals with lengthy criminal backgrounds were arrested in total.
 
РОССИЙСКАЯ ДЕЗИНФОРМАЦИЯ  (RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION)
 
**Russia's 'most successful disinformation campaign' targets free speech in Europe **
 
Russian state media and officials are amplifying a narrative portraying European regulation of social media as censorship, particularly targeting efforts by the U.K. and the European Union to oversee X. Experts say the campaign exploits criticism from American leaders and X owner Elon Musk while ignoring Moscow’s own sweeping restrictions on online speech; X, Facebook, and Instagram are all blocked in Russian. Analysts argue the EU’s Digital Services Act and U.K. enforcement actions focus on transparency and harmful content, not suppressing dissent. The messaging has gained traction internationally, even as Russia continues blocking major platforms and tightening domestic controls, highlighting what experts describe as a deliberate and effective disinformation strategy.
 
ONLINE DOMESTIC TERRORISM
 
**Woman arrested for recruiting people on social media to assassinate Trump**  
 
A woman in West Virginia was arrested after allegedly trying to recruit people to assassinate President Donald Trump, according to the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office. Morgan Morrow, 39, has been charged with one count of terroristic threats. Deputies said Morrow was recruiting individuals to pursue and assassinate Trump and that further details will be released as the investigation continues.
 
EXTREMISTS ONLINE
 
**They're Coming for Our Kids: How Extremists Target Children Online**  
 
Predatory extremist groups, ranging from Neo-Nazi organizations to Islamist radicals, are aggressively recruiting children online across mainstream digital platforms, while the U.S. government has dismantled the very prevention programs designed to stop it. Drawing on rising youth radicalization and past successes in early intervention, Dexter Ingram, former Director of the Office of Countering Violent Extremism at the U.S. State Department, warns that treating extremism reactively rather than preventively leaves families and communities dangerously exposed.
 
U.S. MILITARY BASES INCREASE DRONE DEFENSE
 
**Pentagon Allows Drone Defense Beyond US Base Perimeters**
 
The Department of War has issued new guidance expanding the authority of U.S. military commanders to counter drone threats beyond the boundaries of military installations. The move is in direct response to a sharp rise in unauthorized drone activity near and over sensitive military sites in the United States. A military commander told reporters last fall that drone incursions at U.S. bases were happening at a rate of approaching two per day.
 
SOCIAL MEDIA LAWSUIT
 
**Meta, TikTok, YouTube head to trial over allegations their technology is addictive**
 
Jury selection is set to start in a trial over whether Meta, TikTok and YouTube fuel excessive social media use by children in ways that harm their mental health. At the heart of the case are allegations by a 19-year-old plaintiff, identified only as "KGM," who claims that using social media from a young age caused her to become addicted to the technology, which led her to develop depression and suicidal thoughts. KGM's lawsuit alleges that the social media addiction and mental illness she suffered were caused by deliberate design choices made by companies that sought to make their platforms more addictive to children to boost profits. This argument, if successful, could sidestep the companies' First Amendment shield and Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which protects tech companies from liability for material posted on their platforms. "Borrowing heavily from the behavioral and neurobiological techniques used by slot machines and exploited by the cigarette industry, Defendants deliberately embedded in their products an array of design features aimed at maximizing youth engagement to drive advertising revenue," the lawsuit says.
 
TIK TOK
 
**TikTok moves to settle a major social media addiction case shortly before trial**
 
It follows Snap in reaching an agreement to resolve the first of several cases slated to go to trial this year about social media’s alleged harm to users, an attorney for the 19-year-old plaintiff confirmed. That leaves Meta and YouTube as defendants in the case going to jury selection today. The settlement was reached just as jury selection began. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is anticipated to testify during the trial phase, while the details of TikTok's settlement and a prior agreement with Snap remain undisclosed.
 
NEI NAZI ONLINE PRESENCE
 
**Neo-Nazi Accelerationist Website Encourages Non-U.S. Followers to Access Site Via Tor**
 
On January 20, a Telegram channel connected to a neo-Nazi accelerationist website linked to former AWD members and members of successor organizations, recommended that their followers outside of the U.S. access the site via a .onion address using the Tor browser. The post recommended that, given recent anti-hate speech laws in Australia, followers there unsubscribe from the Telegram channel and access the site only via Tor, noting that readers in the United Kingdom and Canada should do the same due to anti-hate speech or counterterrorism laws.
 
DAESH/ISIS IN SYRIA
 
**Pro-ISIS Telegram Channels Note Changing Al-Hol Camp Situation, Urge Freeing of Prisoners**
 
Between January 17 and 20, pro-ISIS Telegram channels posted news regarding the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) withdrawal from the area around the Al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria and their replacement by Syrian transitional government forces. Posts celebrated the SDF repositioning from the camp, which contains an estimated 26,000 people, including 6,000 foreigners from approximately 60 countries, many of them women and children, who are allegedly linked to ISIS or previously lived in ISIS-held territory. Additional posts claimed that some individuals had escaped, amidst news reports claiming that potentially hundreds of detainees had fled Shaddadeh prison, a different facility in Northern Syria.
 
DAESH/ISIS IN NIGERIA
 
**ISIS Releases Propaganda Video Showing Executions in Nigeria** - On January 23, ISIS released a propaganda video from the group’s self-proclaimed West Africa Province. The five-minute video, titled “The Consequences of Betrayal 2,” consisted of execution footage of individuals accused of working for the Nigerian government, including 11 members of local militias, eight individuals accused of spying on behalf of the Nigerian military or government, and one man described as a pro-government village official. In the video, speakers declared that they were watching militia members and alleged spies in Nigeria. The last video from ISIS’s West Africa Province, “The Consequences of Betrayal,” was released on July 15, 2025.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
—J.G.
 
—END REPORT
 

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Can Proactive Prevention Be Successful?

Can Proactive Military Suicide Prevention Be Successful?

There’s an old adage that says, ‘When you realize you’re spending most of your time pulling people out of the river, maybe it’s time to take a walk upstream and see why they’re falling in’.

The GI Forum asks, are our nation’s suicide prevention methods solely relegated to ‘reactive’ efforts? Because it doesn’t appear much is working very well. So, what about ‘proactive’ measures in practice today?

Well, it appears our military has initiated proactive programs to prepare members for trauma in deployment, and they are typically referred to as ‘resiliency training’.

So, GI Forum set out to learn more about these programs and their success. It appears that their proactive approach is work in progress, at best. The following are our search questions, and answers obtained.

 

1. Is our military being proactive in teaching and training members about war trauma before sending them in

In general, yes—today’s U.S. military does provide pre-deployment education and resilience training around combat stress and war trauma, but it is uneven, more focused on resilience than on fully grappling with moral injury, and the evidence that it truly “prevents” PTSD is mixed.

What the military is doing now

·         All branches now have some form of pre-deployment briefings or training modules that address combat stress, normal stress reactions, and when to seek help.​

·         The DoD and VA clinical practice guideline explicitly recommends education and resilience training before deployments as part of PTSD prevention and mental health maintenance.​

·         Programs emphasize recognizing signs of stress, basic coping strategies, buddy support, and how to access chaplains, mental health, and medical assets downrange.​

Examples of specific programs

·         The Army’s Comprehensive Soldier Fitness (CSF) program (now often called Ready and Resilient) is a force-wide resilience initiative that includes psychological, social, family, and spiritual fitness, with repeated assessments and resilience modules across a Soldier’s career, not just right before deployment.

·         CSF uses a Global Assessment Tool and “Master Resilience Trainer” NCOs who teach cognitive skills (reframing, emotion regulation, problem solving) to units.

·         Marine Corps and other forces have piloted stress inoculation programs (for example, PRESIT for Marines) that combine breathing, biofeedback, and coping drills to reduce physiological arousal and improve coping in response to deployment stressors.​

·         The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research helped develop BH-GEAR, a 6‑hour training to improve medics’ mental-health knowledge and confidence before deployments.​

How effective this training is

·         Observational work suggests that service members who perceive they had good pre-deployment training show weaker links between heavy combat exposure and later PTSD symptoms or poorer treatment response, implying pre-deployment preparedness may be somewhat protective.​

·         A review of pre-deployment resilience programs across militaries found mixed results: some stress-management and attention-bias modification trainings lowered PTSD symptoms or caseness, while others did not show clear benefit by strict trial standards.​

·         A National Academies review concluded that prevention is a high priority and multiple programs are in place, but high-quality randomized evidence that these efforts reliably prevent PTSD is limited.

Where the gaps remain

·         Most programs emphasize resilience skills and stress management; they less often address moral injury, betrayal, civilian casualties, or complicated grief in a deep, scenario-based way.

·         Briefings can be didactic and “check-the-box,” and their impact tends to be stronger when interactive and unit-led (for example, BATTLEMIND-style formats) rather than one-way PowerPoints.​

·         Evidence suggests that, even with training, high-intensity or prolonged combat still carries substantial PTSD risk; training can mitigate but not eliminate that risk.

If you’re asking as a veteran, family member, or educator

·         For service members: asking about your unit’s resilience or combat-stress-control resources, chaplain support, and whether you can get additional pre-deployment counseling or skills coaching can increase the “preparedness” piece that seems protective.

·         For families/educators: you can reinforce realistic expectations (war will change you), normalize seeking help early, and discuss both resilience and moral complexity—filling in areas where formal programs may be thin.

2. What pre-deployment PTSD prevention programs exist for the US military

Several named pre-deployment programs and broader resilience initiatives in the U.S. military are intended to reduce PTSD risk, though evidence for true “prevention” is mixed.

Major force-wide resilience programs

·         Comprehensive Soldier Fitness (CSF), now embedded in Army “Ready and Resilient,” is a large resilience initiative using cognitive‑behavioral–style skills, Master Resilience Trainers, and repeated assessments to build psychological, social, and family fitness across a Soldier’s career, including before deployments.​

·         Air Force Resilience Training (ART) provides required pre‑deployment and post‑deployment education plus master resiliency components focused on stress management, coping skills, and help‑seeking.

·         Navy Operational Stress Control (OSC) and Marine Corps Combat Operational Stress Control (COSC) train leaders and units to recognize stress zones, encourage early help‑seeking, normalize stress reactions, and integrate stress‑control practices into pre‑deployment workups.​

Specific pre-deployment PTSD‑prevention / stress‑inoculation efforts

·         Pre‑Deployment Stress Inoculation Training (PRESIT) for Marines combines:

·         Education on combat/operational stress control

·         Coping skills (focused and relaxation breathing with biofeedback)

·         Multimedia stressor exposure to practice skills in a simulated high‑stress environment.​

·         Pilot trials of PRESIT found no strong overall reduction in PTSD diagnoses versus controls, but when baseline mental health differences were controlled, the control group had about 6.9‑times higher PTSD risk than the PRESIT group, suggesting possible protective effects in some subgroups.

·         Other evaluated pre‑deployment interventions (across U.S. and allied militaries) include:

·         CBT‑based resilience courses teaching cognitive restructuring and coping plans

·         Mindfulness/relaxation training aimed at self‑awareness and self‑regulation under stress

·         Biofeedback‑based programs to increase heart‑rate variability and stress tolerance

·         Stress inoculation trainings using graded exposure to duty‑relevant stressors.

Family‑focused and system‑level programs

·         FOCUS (Families OverComing Under Stress) is a family‑centered resilience program used with U.S. military families, including pre‑deployment phases; it has been associated with reduced parental stress, anxiety, and depression and improved family functioning and coping.​

·         Broader “Warrior Optimization” or performance‑enhancement programs (for example at Fort Carson) include pre‑deployment stress‑management and self‑regulation skill training, with participants reporting higher resilience and fewer PTSD symptoms post‑deployment than non‑participants.​

What systematic reviews say

·         Reviews of pre‑deployment resilience‑building programs for military and first responders identify CBT‑based, mindfulness, biofeedback, and stress‑inoculation interventions as the main categories, with some showing improved resilience and occasional reductions in PTSD symptoms or caseness.

·         However, high‑quality randomized evidence that any specific pre‑deployment program reliably prevents PTSD across the force is limited; current best practice emphasizes combining pre‑deployment resilience training, leader education, and early post‑trauma interventions rather than relying on any single course.

3. Is there any military training or preparation for moral injury

There is growing education and training around moral injury, but it is mostly aimed at clinicians, chaplains, and leaders, with only limited, inconsistent direct preparation for rank‑and‑file troops before deployment.

What exists inside the military–VA system

·         VA and DoD now explicitly recognize moral injury as distinct from PTSD and offer clinician trainings on how to assess and treat it (for example, VA continuing‑education modules on addressing PTSD and moral injury together). These focus on concepts like guilt, shame, betrayal, and violation of deeply held values.​

·         VA facilities have developed psychoeducational group programs that introduce Veterans to moral injury, differentiate it from PTSD, and prepare them for more intensive therapy (for example, the “Moral Injury Psychoeducation Group Program” from South Texas VA).​

·         Military chaplains and behavioral health staff often get dedicated training or certificate‑style courses on moral injury, emphasizing spiritual and ethical dimensions and how to create safe spaces for disclosure and repair.

Programs and training around the force

·         Some leadership and ethics centers in the services (for example, at the service academies and war colleges) frame understanding moral injury as a professional development responsibility for leaders—teaching them to recognize it in themselves and their people and to plan for potential moral stressors.​

·         Workshops and online courses (often run in partnership with military or VA personnel) give leaders tools to anticipate morally challenging situations, talk about moral injury with their teams, and build practices like after‑action moral reflection, not just tactical debriefs.

·         However, these offerings tend to be optional, targeted, or post‑deployment; they are not yet universal, standardized, or embedded into every pre‑deployment training pipeline the way basic combat stress education is.

Civilian and NGO programs serving service members

·         Nonprofits such as TRR’s Warrior Camp explicitly frame their residential programs as “moral injury repair” for active‑duty members and Veterans, integrating multiple therapeutic modalities (e.g., trauma‑focused therapies, body‑based work, spiritual practices) to address guilt, shame, and “wounding of the soul.”​

·         Other organizations (for example, TRIBE’s moral‑injury training) provide self‑paced virtual courses for active duty, Veterans, and families, teaching what moral injury is, how it shows up, and tools to understand potential moral responses before and after morally injurious events.​

Where pre‑deployment preparation falls short

·         Many service members report that they were not explicitly taught about moral injury before combat; instead they received general resilience and combat‑stress briefs that focused on fear, hyperarousal, and PTSD, not on moral transgression, betrayal, or tragic choices.​

·         Even VA psychoeducation materials note that “service members are not taught how to cope with moral injury,” and that being told to push through and contain feelings often leaves guilt and shame to surface later.​

·         Current best practice is moving toward integrating moral‑injury concepts into leader development, chaplaincy, and post‑deployment care, but systematic, scenario‑based pre‑deployment moral‑injury training for all troops is still emerging rather than fully built‑out.

4. How does moral injury training differ from PTSD prevention training

Moral injury training and PTSD prevention training differ fundamentally in focus, symptoms targeted, methods used, and timing, reflecting that moral injury is a distinct psychological wound from PTSD—not a fear disorder but a crisis of conscience.

Core conceptual differences

·         PTSD prevention targets fear, threat, and survival responses: It assumes trauma comes from life‑threatening events (combat, IEDs, ambushes) and aims to build physiological resilience, normalize acute stress reactions, teach coping skills like breathing and arousal control, and encourage early help‑seeking to prevent re‑experiencing, avoidance, and hypervigilance.​

·         Moral injury training targets guilt, shame, betrayal, and moral transgression: It stems from acts (or failures to act) that violate deeply held beliefs—killing civilians, disobeying perceived moral orders, friendly fire, or witnessing atrocities—and focuses on ethical dilemmas, self‑worth, spiritual distress, and rebuilding a sense of goodness.

Symptoms and presentations addressed

Aspect	PTSD Prevention Training	Moral Injury Training
Primary emotions	Fear, anxiety, anger, hyperarousal	Guilt, shame, worthlessness, self‑loathing
Key symptoms	Flashbacks, nightmares, startle response, current threat perception	Depression, anhedonia, isolation, suicidal ideation, risk‑taking
Avoidance style	Situational (triggers, crowds)	Self (relationships, self‑care, disclosure)
Co‑occurrence	Can worsen PTSD if present	Often overlaps but changes PTSD profile (more depressive symptoms)

Training methods and approaches

·         PTSD prevention uses stress inoculation and resilience skills: Briefings, biofeedback, cognitive reframing of fear (“this is normal”), buddy checks, and apps for arousal management—often scalable, unit‑level, and pre‑deployment.​

·         Moral injury training uses ethical reflection and restorative practices: Scenario‑based moral‑dilemma discussions, ethics training, leader modeling (“ethical stance”), spiritual care, and post‑event moral debriefs to verbalize choices and repair self‑concept—not quick skills but deeper processing.

Delivery and timing in military contexts

Aspect	PTSD Prevention Training	Moral Injury Training
Who gets it	All troops (universal, pre‑deployment briefs)	Mostly leaders, chaplains, clinicians (targeted, optional)​
When	Pre‑deployment workups, mandatory	Leader dev, post‑deployment groups, VA therapy
Format	Didactic + skills (e.g., PRESIT, CSF)	Discussions, workshops, psychoeducation groups

Why both are needed (and limits)

·         PTSD training alone can miss moral injury, leaving service members feeling “broken” beyond fear because it doesn’t address “I did wrong” or “the system betrayed me,” which can amplify depression and suicidality.

·         Emerging best practice calls for integrating moral‑injury elements into leader training (ethical decision‑making) and after‑action reviews, while PTSD skills remain foundational for acute stress.​

This distinction explains why some troops with heavy combat exposure have PTSD while others struggle more with isolation and self‑hatred—moral injury changes the game.

5. Key components of moral injury training for military personnel

Key components of moral injury training for military personnel center on psychoeducation, ethical reflection, and restorative practices to address guilt, shame, and spiritual distress, often delivered via groups or leader workshops.

Core conceptual and educational elements

·         Clear definition and psychoeducation: Training begins by defining moral injury as a psychological wound from perpetrating, witnessing, or failing to prevent acts that violate one's deeply held moral beliefs—distinguishing it from PTSD (fear) and emphasizing symptoms like persistent guilt, shame, loss of trust, and existential crisis.

·         Inclusive spirituality and meaning‑making: Participants explore personal values, purpose, and spiritual distress without prescribing beliefs; activities include guided reflection on life's meaning post‑moral violation and rebuilding a sense of goodness.

Therapeutic and skill‑building components

·         Cognitive restructuring and self‑compassion: Identify and challenge distorted self‑blame (“I am unforgivable”) using CBT techniques; foster self‑forgiveness, self‑compassion, and post‑traumatic growth by acknowledging strengths and reframing choices in context.

·         Forgiveness exploration: Discuss self‑forgiveness (not excusing actions but releasing self‑punishment), interpersonal forgiveness (toward leaders or systems), and barriers like anger or denial—often via writing exercises or forgiveness letters.

Group and interpersonal processes

·         Process‑oriented group therapy: Co‑facilitated by mental health providers and chaplains to build universality (“you’re not alone”), catharsis (safe disclosure), interpersonal learning (empathy from peers), and group cohesiveness—key for moral repair in shared combat experiences.​

·         Moral reflection and ethical decision‑making: Scenario‑based discussions of real or simulated moral dilemmas (e.g., ROE violations, civilian harm) to normalize complexity, practice ethical stance, and plan moral after‑action reviews.​

Holistic resilience and self‑care practices

·         Self‑care and personal strength building: Integrate mindfulness, recreation, resilience training, and body‑based practices to manage shame physically and rebuild agency; emphasize post‑trauma growth and psychological flexibility.

·         Relapse prevention and values alignment: End with plans for ongoing moral maintenance, living by core values (e.g., via Acceptance and Commitment Therapy adaptations), and accessing support like chaplains or peer networks.

These components are most effective when tailored (e.g., Impact of Killing module for those with perpetration guilt) and integrated into leader/chaplain training for early identification. For troops, delivery is often group‑based post‑deployment or in optional workshops rather than universal pre‑deployment.

6. Is there any data that addresses the incidence of recruits bringing previous trauma into the military, and how it might manifest from their service

Yes, data shows a notable incidence of U.S. military recruits entering service with pre-existing trauma, which can amplify PTSD risk and manifest uniquely during service.​

Prevalence among recruits

Around 15% of new Navy recruits report measurable posttraumatic stress symptoms upon entry, often from civilian traumas like abuse, violence, or accidents rather than combat. Broader studies link childhood adversity (e.g., stress, violence) to higher probable PTSD rates in personnel, with UK forces data showing such histories in subgroups developing symptoms over time.

How prior trauma manifests in service

·         Worsened symptom progression: Pre-existing vulnerability makes troops more prone to PTSD after combat; e.g., UK TRIAD study found childhood stress predicts non-recovery from deployment symptoms, with 5% worsening over 12 years versus 5% improving.​

·         Heightened risk factors: Those with prior trauma show elevated odds of PTSD from factors like multiple deployments, handling dead bodies, or combat roles—e.g., 2-3x higher risk in Ethiopian military data, likely similar in U.S.​

·         Altered presentations: Manifests as chronic alcohol misuse, aggression, poor unit cohesion, or "reverse PTSD" (struggling with garrison life post-conflict), not just classic hyperarousal; ex-serving personnel with histories fare worse long-term.

Screening and implications

Military accession screening catches some via medical history reviews, but subclinical trauma often slips through, contributing to 4-17% probable PTSD rates in high-risk groups (e.g., combat-deployed Army). This underscores needs for enhanced resilience training tailored to prior adversity, as social support appears protective against progression.

7. Is military pre-deployment training in resilience for PTSD and moral injury successful today, or not

No, military pre-deployment resilience training for PTSD and moral injury shows only partial and mixed success—positive participant feedback and some short-term gains in skills like attention and stress regulation, but limited evidence of reliably preventing PTSD symptoms or moral injury long-term.

Evidence on PTSD resilience training

·         Programs like Army's Deployment Cycle Resilience Training (DCRT) and Comprehensive Soldier Fitness earn high satisfaction ratings (relevant, applicable beyond deployment) from soldiers and families, with some studies showing reduced occupational stress and improved attention/mood after brief mindfulness or cognitive training.

·         However, systematic reviews find inconsistent PTSD reduction: some CBT/mindfulness pilots lower symptoms or caseness, but high-quality RCTs often show no clear prevention across the force, especially under heavy combat.​

Evidence on moral injury preparation

·         Moral injury components (ethical reflection, self-compassion) are newer, mostly in leader/chaplain workshops, not universal pre-deployment; no large-scale data proves they prevent post-deployment guilt/shame, though group psychoeducation aids processing.​

·         Gaps persist: training is often "check-the-box" didactic, misses scenario depth for moral dilemmas, and doesn't fully address prior trauma in recruits, leading to uneven uptake.​

Overall verdict and path forward

Participant intent to apply skills is strong, and effects like better connectedness or character strength emerge in targeted groups (e.g., cognitive training in National Guard). Yet, without stronger RCTs tracking deployments and integration of moral injury universally, success remains unsatisfactory for true prevention—more mitigation than cure. Recent evaluations call for interactive formats and family inclusion to boost relatability.

8. Are there any potential breakthrough methods being considered or tested

Yes, several promising breakthrough methods for military resilience training—targeting PTSD and moral injury—are under testing or consideration as of early 2026, building on mixed results from traditional programs.

High-fidelity stress exposure and simulation

·         Point of Impact Training (POIT) and Stress Exposure Training (SET) immerse troops in hyper-realistic scenarios using pyrotechnics, blank munitions, and real-time performance metrics to train arousal control, ethical decision-making, and survival instincts under combat-like stress; Australian and U.S. forces are scaling this for better executive function in chaos.​

·         Virtual Reality (VR) expansions like Army's STRIVE (Simulated Training for Resilience in Various Environments) deliver mindfulness-based stress management via immersive sims, reducing travel and enabling scalable pre-deployment exposure to moral dilemmas and trauma triggers.​

Biofeedback and physiological regulation

·         HeartMath self-regulation tech uses wearable biofeedback for heart-rate variability training to cut operational stress symptoms, boost focus/decision-making, and build sustained resilience; tailored 1-3 day modules are being adopted by U.S. units for quick, culture-agnostic skill-building.​

Advanced cognitive and reflective methods

·         Systematic self-reflection models prompt ongoing journaling and debriefs on stressors to foster adaptive resilience, complementing skills training; Australian Defence pilots show gains in processing moral injury via structured meaning-making.​

·         Mindfulness + cognitive behavioral hybrids (e.g., Dr. Amishi Jha's protocols) improve working memory/mood under dual-task stress, with 2026 SOF trials integrating them into SERE for prior-trauma recruits.

Early evidence and next steps

These outperform didactic briefs in short-term metrics (e.g., 13% PTSD drop in CSF2 units with MRTs), but long-term RCTs are pending; DoD prioritizes hybrid VR/biofeedback for 2026 rollouts to address gaps in moral injury and recruit vulnerabilities.

9. What factors in a person entering the military could indicate that resilience training of any type will not be successful

Certain pre-existing factors in military recruits can signal a higher likelihood that standard resilience training—whether for PTSD, moral injury, or general stress—will fail to take hold or lead to attrition, based on patterns from accession studies and training outcomes.

Psychological and coping vulnerabilities

·         Low baseline resilience or poor coping styles: Recruits scoring low on validated resilience scales (e.g., CD-RISC) or relying on aggressive/avoidant coping (vs. adaptive problem-solving) often fail to adapt to training stress, showing higher perceived distress and dropout rates; this predicts non-response to skills-based interventions like CSF.

·         Pre-existing mental health issues: Undisclosed or subclinical anxiety, depression, or prior trauma (e.g., childhood adversity) amplify dissonance between civilian identity and military demands, leading to somatization, hostility, or self-selection out—resilience briefs rarely overcome entrenched patterns.

Social and identity mismatches

·         Weak social support networks: Lack of family ties (e.g., no female siblings as a proxy for relational skills) or poor unit cohesion predicts isolation and failure; training assumes group bonding will compensate, but isolated recruits disengage from peer-led resilience modules.

·         Identity dissonance: Recruits whose socio-personal values clash with military culture (e.g., individualism vs. hierarchical conformity) experience cognitive dissonance, rejecting resilience narratives as "just talk" amid group punishment or overload.

Physical and behavioral red flags

Factor	Why It Predicts Training Failure	Example Impact
Poor physical fitness/injury history	Limits participation in stress-inoculation; cascades to psychological defeat	2-3x higher attrition in low-fit cohorts
Substance use (e.g., ecstasy)	Indicates impulsivity/escape coping; undermines biofeedback or mindfulness	Correlates with 2x odds of voluntary quit
Prior service or age extremes	Either overconfidence (repeats failures) or maturity gaps	11% of dropouts had prior service

Key takeaway for screening

No single factor dooms resilience training, but combinations (e.g., low resilience + poor fitness + avoidant coping) create >30% attrition risk in basic phases, per infantry studies—suggesting tailored pre-accession screening or remedial modules over universal programs. These recruits often need extended onboarding, not standard briefs, to build foundational adaptability.

10. How successful is the military in identifying these traits before allowing enlistment

The U.S. military's enlistment screening catches some obvious red flags but struggles with subtler psychological vulnerabilities like low resilience or prior trauma, resulting in limited overall success—high attrition rates (15-30% in basic training) reveal many issues slip through.

What the process screens for

·         Medical and physical: MEPS exams check fitness, major disorders, and disqualifiers (e.g., ADHD meds, serious injuries); detects ~20-30% of physical/medical risks but misses subclinical issues.

·         Mental health basics: Brief history review flags severe diagnoses (psychosis, bipolar), but relies on self-report—undisclosed depression/anxiety or trauma evades detection in 10-15% of cases per accession studies.​

·         No standard resilience testing: Unlike some allies, U.S. forces lack universal pre-enlistment resilience scales (e.g., CD-RISC); aptitude tests (ASVAB) predict job fit, not stress tolerance.​

Key detection gaps

Factor from Prior Query	Screening Effectiveness	Why It Fails
Low resilience/coping	Poor (self-report bias)	Brief interviews don't probe adaptive styles deeply
Prior trauma	Moderate (10-20% caught)	Relies on honesty; many normalize childhood adversity
Poor fitness	Good upfront, poor sustain	Initial pass doesn't predict training injuries
Social/identity mismatch	Negligible	Not assessed; emerges in basic

Outcomes and evidence of shortcomings

·         Attrition proxy: 11-24% voluntary/involuntary drops in first training phase correlate with missed psych vulnerabilities, costing $50K+ per recruit; low-resilience cohorts 2-3x more likely to quit.

·         Post-enlistment reveals: Studies show 15% of recruits enter with subclinical PTSD symptoms undetected at MEPS, amplifying deployment risks.[ from prior]

Recent pushes (e.g., 2026 fitness resets) focus on sustainment, not accession psych screening—suggesting DoD knows early ID is weak but prioritizes volume over precision amid recruiting shortfalls. Tailored resilience assessments at enlistment could help, but aren't standard yet.

 

Reference: Perplexity.ai

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January 27, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 27 JANUARY 2026
 
U.S. CURRENT THREAT PICTURE
 
In recent weeks, law enforcement and local officials have responded to a range of high-profile violent extremism, hate-related, and school threat incidents across the United States, involving arrests and investigations in multiple states. Many of these cases originated or were shared through online channels before authorities were alerted.
Because so much radicalization, harassment, and threat activity spreads online—and often targets young people—we are introducing a new section in this GZB, focused on online safety tips. Each edition of the newsletter will include practical guidance to help our readers protect themselves and their children, strengthen digital security, and reduce exposure to harmful content and online manipulation.
 
SECURITY TIPS FOR THE WEEK: Protecting You & Your Family Online
 
For Adults: Turn On Multi-Factor Authentication
 
Multi-factor authentication (2FA) adds an extra layer of protection to your online accounts and takes only a few minutes to set up. Once enabled, it makes it significantly harder for hackers to access your accounts—even if they have your password. To turn it on, go to your account settings, find the security section, and follow the prompts to enable 2FA using a phone number, email, or authentication app.
 
For Kids: Guard Your Location on Social Media
 
Sharing your location online can reveal exactly where you are in real time—even if it seems harmless. Avoid adding location tags to posts, photos, or videos, and make sure location services are turned off for social media apps. Parents can also adjust device settings to block location access for specific apps while still allowing helpful tools like maps.
 
DOMESTIC SITREP
 
ICE: Man Arrested in Rochester Previously Tried to Kill Sister for Being “Bad Muslim Girl”
• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested Waheed Allah Mohammad, 39, in Rochester, N.Y., on an immigration violation. Authorities referenced a prior incident in which Mohammad's sister told police he assaulted her and attempted to kill her because he believed she was a “bad Muslim girl.”
 
• Mohammad's past alleged attack led to an investigation and became part of the context surrounding his arrest.
 
DOJ Launches Civil Rights Investigation After Minnesota Agitators Storm Church
• The U.S. Department of Justice said it opened a civil rights investigation into an incident at a church in Minnesota, according to a Fox News report.
 
• The report said demonstrators entered the church during a dispute involving a transgender-related issue near Hinckley.
 
• Federal officials are reviewing whether the confrontation violated civil rights laws.
Pro- and Anti-ICE Demonstrators Face Off During Minneapolis Immigration Crackdown
 
• Demonstrators supporting and opposing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement gathered in Minneapolis amid an immigration enforcement operation, Politico reported.
 
• Protesters from both sides assembled outside the federal building and clashed with law enforcement present.
 
• Police and organizers worked to manage the crowd as opposing groups demonstrated.
 
Albany Man Arraigned on Hate Crime Charges
 
• Novel Carter Jr., 23, of Troy, N.Y., was arraigned in Albany City Criminal Court on hate crime charges, Spectrum News and Times Union reported.
 
• On Jan. 5, Carter allegedly approached an Albany County employee walking on North Pearl Street and threatened to shoot and kill him while using antisemitic slurs; the victim was identifiable as Jewish because he was wearing a yarmulke.
 
• Carter was charged with second-degree aggravated harassment as a hate crime (a felony) and third-degree menacing as a hate crime (a misdemeanor). He was held in Albany County jail pending arraignment.
 
Mississippi Man Arrested for Arson of Two Jewish Institutions
 
• The U.S. Department of Justice announced the arrest of Darryl James Patterson, 28, in connection with arson of the Beth Israel synagogue and the Goldring/Woldenberg Institute of Southern Jewish Life in Jackson, Miss.
 
• Patterson is charged with setting fire to the two Jewish institutions. Federal investigators are handling the case.
 
• Patterson remains in custody as the federal investigation continues.
 
West Orange-Stark Student Arrested After Shooting Threat Against Middle School
 
• A student was arrested after allegedly making a shooting threat against a West Orange-Stark middle school in Texas, according to the Beaumont Enterprise.
 
• The threat, which prompted a law enforcement response, was investigated by school officials and local police. 
The suspect was taken into custody as the investigation continued.
 
Fort Worth Teen Arrested in Arson Case Also Linked to School Threats, Extremist Organization
 
• Evan Banda, 17, was arrested Jan. 8 in Fort Worth, Texas, and charged with multiple counts of arson in connection with a string of neighborhood vehicle fires reported between late December and early January, Fox 4 News reported.
 
• Police also connected Banda to videos in which a person wearing a hockey mask and Nazi regalia made violent threats against multiple North Texas schools. Fort Worth police said the extremist group allegedly used footage of Crowley Middle School in the material.
 
• Banda is being held on a $1.9 million bond, and investigators are determining whether additional federal charges apply.
 
COUNTERTERRORISM
 
Loosening the Gordian Knot of Global Terrorism: Why Legitimacy Must Anchor a Counterterrorism Strategy **- Today’s terrorism threat is more hybrid, unstable, and politically entangled than at any point since 9/11. Christopher P. Costa, former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism on the National Security Council (NSC), and Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Director of Policy and Research at The Soufan Group, contend that the Trump administration cannot rely on scattered strikes or tougher rhetoric alone. U.S. counterterrorism success depends on legitimacy—legal, domestic, and international credibility—which strengthens partnerships and public trust. Without it, even effective operations risk becoming politicized, counterproductive, and strategically self-defeating.
 
GLOBAL SITREP
 
BOLIVIA
 
**US presses Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian spies, harden approach to militant groups, sources say** - Washington is urging Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian intelligence operatives and to label Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, and Hamas as terrorist organizations, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The move is part of a broader U.S. campaign to counter Tehran’s influence in Latin America, following similar designations in Ecuador and Argentina. U.S. officials see an opening with Bolivia’s new centrist president, Rodrigo Paz, after years of leftist rule aligned with Iran. The effort may expand to Chile, Panama, and Peru amid growing U.S. concerns over Iranian and Hezbollah networks in the region.
 
USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN
 
**As U.S. aircraft carrier heads toward Iran, Yemen rebels threaten new Red Sea attack
 
**- Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on Monday threatened to resume attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea as tensions simmered between Tehran and Washington. The group released footage showing previously-published images of a vessel in flames, with the caption: “Soon.” The warning comes as the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln moves toward the region following threats by President Trump of possible military action over Iran’s violent crackdown on nationwide protests.
 
ISRAEL & GAZA
 
**Israel Quietly Backs New Gaza Militias Fighting Hamas** - Israel is reportedly supporting emerging Palestinian militias inside Gaza to target Hamas operatives in areas off-limits to Israeli troops under the ceasefire. The militias, which receive Israeli intelligence, drone cover, and logistical aid, have carried out attacks including the recent killing of a Hamas police official. Leaders such as Hussam Al Astal deny receiving arms but acknowledge Israeli-provided supplies and protection. Analysts warn that these groups, some with criminal ties, could become unstable proxies similar to past Israeli-backed militias in Lebanon. Their future remains uncertain as Israel prepares for a possible Gaza withdrawal.
 
DAESH/ISIS IN SYRIA & IRAQ
 
**Baghdad says it will prosecute Islamic State militants being moved from Syria to Iraq
 
**- Iraq’s judiciary announced it will prosecute thousands of Islamic State detainees transferred from Syria under a U.S.-brokered deal. The move follows the collapse of Kurdish-led control in northeast Syria and Damascus’s seizure of key detention sites, including al-Hol camp and Shaddadeh prison. About 275 militants have reportedly been flown to Iraq so far, with trials to be held in domestic courts. Baghdad said the transfers aim to prevent escaped fighters from regrouping along the Syria-Iraq border. Both Washington and Damascus have endorsed the plan amid fears of renewed Islamic State activity.
 
PAKISTAN
 
**Suicide Bombing at Pakistani Wedding Kills Seven **- A suicide bomber struck a wedding ceremony in Dera Ismail Khan, northwest Pakistan, killing at least seven people and wounding several others. Police said the blast targeted a building hosting members of a government-backed peace committee, which works to counter militants along the Afghan border. No group has claimed responsibility, but authorities suspect the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which has repeatedly attacked such committees. The bombing occurred as Pakistan’s military prepares new operations against armed groups in frontier areas, where tens of thousands have been displaced amid worsening winter conditions.
 
MALI
 
**Mali Moves to Ration Fuel as al-Qaida-Linked Attacks Cut Off Supplies **- Mali’s junta announced fuel rationing after al-Qaida-linked militants reportedly destroyed over 100 tanker trucks, crippling fuel imports and distribution. The shortages have triggered long lines in Bamako and raised fears of unrest ahead of Ramadan. Russian Africa Corps troops are now escorting convoys to secure supply routes, underscoring Mali’s growing reliance on Moscow since breaking with Western partners in 2021. Under the rationing system, vehicles may refuel only every 48–72 hours. Analysts warn that militant activity and disrupted logistics could prolong shortages and deepen public frustration with the military government.
 
DAESH/ISIS IN EASTERN CONGO
 
**Islamic State-Backed Militants Kill 25 in Eastern Congo Attack **- At least 25 civilians were killed in eastern Congo when fighters from the Islamic State-linked Allied
 
Democratic Forces attacked the village of Apakulu in Ituri province, a local rights group reported. Fifteen victims were reportedly burned alive, and seven others were shot, with additional killings in nearby Walese Vonkutu. The ADF, originally a Ugandan insurgent group, has escalated brutal violence in the Congo-Uganda border region despite joint military operations by both countries. Analysts say the assault underscores worsening insecurity in eastern Congo, where multiple armed groups continue to target civilians.
 
INDIA-TALIBAN DIPLOMACY
 
**Militant Leadership in Uproar as India–Taliban Diplomacy Sparks Crisis Across the Pakistan–Afghanistan Front** - A diplomatic milestone occurred on 12 January 2026, when India formally received Mufti Noor Ahmad Noor, the Taliban‑appointed Chargé d’Affaires in New Delhi. This development appears to have triggered significant concern within Pakistan‑based militant networks, particularly Lashkar‑e‑Taiba (LeT) and elements of Jaish‑e‑Mohammed (JeM). Shortly after the diplomatic meeting, LeT leadership convened a gathering in Bahawalpur, reportedly with ideological and logistical backing from Pakistan’s Inter‑Services Intelligence (ISI). The meeting focused on perceived strategic shifts in Afghanistan–India relations and the implications for Pakistan’s internal and regional security posture. Key Personalities Present:
 
1- Masood Alam – Deputy Emir, Jamia Muhammadiyah al‑Hadith
2- Hafiz Saifullah Khalid – LeT military trainer
3- Hafiz Abdul Rauf – Senior JeM military figure, formerly linked to LeT
4- Hafiz Muhammad Talha Saeed – Acting Emir of LeT; son of Hafiz Saeed
5- Muhammad Yaqoob Sheikh – Senior LeT operational commander; previously sanctioned by the U.S.
 
These individuals represent the upper tier of LeT’s ideological, operational, and training infrastructure. Overall, the meeting underscores the strategic anxiety within Pakistan‑aligned militant circles and highlights the potential for increased friction across the Afghanistan–Pakistan–India triangle.
 
GZB INFOCUS: Mapped America’s Healthiest States
 
Key Takeaways:
 
• New Hampshire ranks as the healthiest state in America, followed by Massachusetts and Vermont.
 
• Falling in last place is Louisiana, influenced by low physical activity rates and high levels of food insecurity.
 
“Blue Zones” are regions of the world where people live longer and healthier lives, supported by habits that boost longevity.
 
Loma Linda, California is one of the few recognized Blue Zones, alongside Okinawa, Japan and Ikaria, Greece. Just as place can have a powerful influence on health outcomes, differences vary meaningfully across America.
 
This graphic shows the healthiest U.S. states, based on data from America’s Health Rankings Report (https://assets.americashealthrankings.org/ahr_2025annualreport-statesummaries_all.pdf) by the UnitedHealth Foundation.
 
The Northeast Produces America’s Healthiest States
 
For the analysis, states were measured on 99 indicators such as economic hardship, smoking rates, and mortality rates. Overall values were measured in z-scores, with a score of 0 representing the national average.
 
Utah, ranking in fifth, stands as a regional outlier. Notably, it ranks first nationally across indicators including smoking rates and income inequality. However, factors such as low public health funding and a lack of primary care providers weigh on its ranking.
Interestingly, Kansas and Illinois, both Midwestern states, had health scores falling closest to the national average.
 
Where Are the Least Healthy States?
 
Southern states, by contrast, see the lowest scores in health nationwide. Louisiana, with a score of -0.94 ranked worst overall, followed by bordering states, Arkansas (-0.83), and Mississippi (-0.77).
 
Beyond economic hardship, these states see some of the nation’s highest homicide rates, severe income inequality, and low levels of physical activity. Together, this highlights how health outcomes are shaped by a web of social and economic conditions.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
—END REPORT
 

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January 21, 2026

GZB 2026 GLOBAL FORECAST
 
2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the West
 
China has effectively replaced Russia as a global power.
 
Global
 
In 2025 we noted that the world was becoming more unanchored compared to years past. Since World War II, the global order had an anchor, a system of two great powers – the U.S. and the Soviet Union – around which the rest of the world was organized.
GZB has reported on increased military budgets and unprecedented military buildup, across the world. Regional conflicts, the battle for resources and shifting geopolitical landscapes perhaps creates a bleaker outlook than normal — or what we perceive as to be normal within our lifetime. While I don’t have a crystal ball — I do have a Magic 8 Ball. 🎱
Other countries could align with one side or the other, or they could remain neutral, but even the non-aligned countries were set in place by spheres of influence exerted by the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Their respective allies often clashed – in South America, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and the Middle East – but by and large, the conflict was relegated to proxies. It wasn’t perfect, but it obviated the need for a larger war between Moscow and Washington, and in doing so, it created a semblance of stability. (This was aided, of course, by the proliferation of nuclear weapons.)
 
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, two things changed the global order: Russia steadily declined as a global power, especially after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when its focus became primarily regional and its economy remained far from global, and China steadily emerged as a great power. The U.S. no longer had the military imperative to resist Russia wherever it showed itself, and it has developed a new imperative to increasingly challenge China on economic and political fronts. As the new global system evolves, regional geopolitics is also changing.
 
This is a normal process – one that will evolve further in 2026. China and the U.S. are already engaged in military and economic competition. Although both have substantial military capabilities, neither benefits from going to war with the other because, ignoring the fact that neither can be assured of victory, they depend on each other economically. China needs the U.S. to buy its products, and it has always relied on Western investment to fuel its economic growth. The U.S. needs to import cheap products for consumers and downstream industries to control inflation, and it needs to divert investment into more innovative and profitable economic sectors.
 
Put simply, the U.S. can’t maintain hostilities with a country on which it depends economically. Neither can China. Given this reality, Washington had to rationalize its relationship with Beijing without engaging in outright conflict. Its method for doing so was tariffs, the imposition of which created a serious weakening of the economy in China, raised unemployment and created severe weaknesses in its real estate and financial sectors.
 
It also created economic problems in the U.S. by increasing the price of consumer goods. The effect on the Chinese economy was more significant than on the American economy. The solution, then, will be two-fold. First, the United States and China will reach an agreement to ease military tensions. Second, the U.S. will remove or at least moderate tariffs.
 
A military accommodation would be relatively easy to achieve based on things like informing each other of planned military exercises to avoid the fear of surprise. However, the situation is complicated by Taiwan, which is allied with the U.S. but claimed territorially by Beijing.
 
The island nation is a military asset for the U.S. because it’s part of a geopolitical stranglehold on China. There is a string of islands off China’s Pacific coast – generally referred to as the first island chain – that can potentially limit China’s access to the Pacific and thus threaten its export-oriented economy. This becomes even more acute in times of war. Ideology aside, Beijing wants to retake Taiwan so that it can open a much larger gap between Japan and the Philippines that provides wider and less predictable access to the Pacific. Thus, Taiwan is a fundamental military issue that must be resolved for any lasting agreement to take hold.
 
A potential compromise could be reached with Taiwan being recognized as formally part of China but an autonomous region in principle like Hong Kong, although autonomous to a far greater extent. Beijing would simply need assurances that the U.S. would cap certain military commitments there and that it, like China, would avoid participating in military exercises around its waters. Given the economic imperatives on both sides – to say nothing of the political evolution taking place in Taipei – some kind of understanding along these lines seems plausible in 2026.
 
This would establish a radical new global geopolitical system: a bipolar world with two powers not engaged in either economic or military confrontation. (Considering what happened after World War II, this kind of change isn’t unprecedented.) If such an agreement was reached between the U.S. and China, there would be serious challenges to overcome, but the world would be anchored again, and the risk of conflict would be dramatically reduced.
 
Geopolitically, a critical outcome of this change would be a further decline for Russia. The Soviet Union has been shattered, and Moscow has lost some degree of control over its traditional spheres of influence in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Baltic states. It was only the relative weakness of these regions that kept Russia’s regression from being too big a problem. If there is an entente between the U.S. and China, Moscow will face a new threat along the border it shares with China, a historical competitor. Russia may be a nuclear power, but so are the U.K., France, North Korea, Israel, India and Pakistan. Russia should be seen as a member of this class of regional, not global, powers. That honor belongs to the U.S. and China.
 
The reduction of Russia’s relative power would raise a fundamental question over the future of Europe in general and the European Union in particular. The EU’s gross domestic product is a bit larger than China’s, and were it to ever exist within a single nation, it would inarguably become a world power. If there were an understanding with China, and with the danger from Russia militarily already dubious, the European nations operating alone would all be minor actors in the new world order. That unification would be of value to the Europeans does not make unity imperative or likely.
 
We therefore consider U.S.-China relations to be the most important geopolitical issue in 2026. There are few barriers to accommodation and many incentives for cooperation. To be sure, cooperation will not bring lasting peace to the world, but it will bring some degree of re-anchoring and order to the global system.
 
The war in Ukraine, however, deserves an honorable mention. To put it bluntly, we cannot predict the timing of the end of the war because it has become essentially a political, rather than a geopolitical, affair. From a geopolitical perspective, the war is over, even if the killing is not. It has become a frozen conflict in which Moscow is unwilling to accept defeat but is incapable of taking Ukraine for its own. It is extremely unlikely that Russia could or already has mobilized a force that could achieve this end; if it did, it would have done so by now. In addition, Kyiv is unable to force the Russians out of the parts of Ukraine they have taken. When the conflict comes to an end, then, is in the hands of a few political leaders – and the timing of a cessation of the killing is unpredictable.
 
Forecast
 
The United States and China will reach an understanding on economic and military relations.
 
Both nations need to reach an agreement on economic affairs; China’s economy has been weakened by tariffs and limited access to the U.S. market, while the U.S. needs to bring down the price of consumer goods. Washington will not, however, enter an economic understanding unless there is a similar military understanding, so expect each country to at least inform the other of planned military exercises and consultations.
 
The U.S.-China reconciliation will put Russia in a more difficult geopolitical position. Russia will not have the military resources to invade other regions.
 
Russia and China share a long border, and historically their bilateral relations are a study in tension and hostility, so their recent cooperation should be seen as transactional, not eternal. The stalemate in Ukraine and its associated sanctions have undermined Moscow’s ability to replenish its military resources. The national economy, meanwhile, has become a top priority for Russia. Both of these factors will restrain Russia from taking new military action elsewhere.
 
Though U.S. policy toward Europe will bring about new political postures, the U.S. will not leave NATO.
 
European nations will be forced to reevaluate their positions on a variety of topics – including whether Ukraine is a fundamental issue for the Continent as a whole. This will lead to disagreements within and among countries, potentially leading to political paralysis and raising questions about the viability of the European Union.
 
The U.S. will increasingly prioritize its interests in the Western Hemisphere. Now that regime change is underway in Venezuela, Washington will focus on Cuba, even as it tries to bring about more modest changes in other Latin American countries.
 
Cuba’s location makes it critical to U.S. maritime security on its southern coast – and in the Caribbean more broadly. U.S. action against Venezuela will deprive Cuba of oil and other forms of support, the deterioration of which will put pressure on Havana. Washington hopes this pressure will lay the groundwork for instability that brings about regime change.
 
Asia-Pacific
 
East and Southeast Asia are located at the intersection of global trade, maritime security and great power competition. Asymmetrical development, historical dependencies and overlapping spheres of influence characterize the region. Asia-Pacific geopolitics is structured around a dominant central power (China), external great power penetration (by the United States) and several advanced and emerging regional actors pursuing strategies to balance against the two.
 
The region is a core driver of globalization and industrial production but also one of the primary theaters of strategic rivalry. Maritime routes, technology supply chains and alliance networks define both cooperation and conflict.
 
Forecast
 
China and South Korea will deepen economic and strategic cooperation, resulting in more trade agreements, high-level meetings and coordination on regional security issues.
 
Beijing and Seoul already have an interest in bilateral trade, economic integration and cooperation in technology and digital sectors; South Korea must remain aligned with China to safeguard its export-driven industries. They will thus cooperate more closely on regional security, particularly on the North Korea nuclear issue – a necessary adjunct for U.S.-China reconciliation.
 
U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific will expand security engagement and diplomatic coordination with China as U.S.-China relations soften.
 
Countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and India will have no choice but to adapt to the new normal, so to remain aligned with the U.S. without alienating China, they will engage in collective and individual measures to keep security and diplomatic communication channels active, resulting in more frequent meetings and new bilateral and multilateral agreements. This engagement will reduce the near-term risk of escalation, particularly in the South China Sea.
 
China will strengthen security cooperation and confidence-building measures with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, even as external actors step in to manage regional instability.
 
Beijing will engage with multilateral frameworks as it prioritizes regional stability over unilateral power projection. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty will fuel protests in parts of Southeast Asia. Existing flashpoints (the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute and Myanmar’s civil war) will attract more active mediation by China, the U.S. and ASEAN partners, all of which are expected to favor diplomatic solutions over coercive measures.
 
Latin America and the Caribbean
 
Latin America consists of four subregions: Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America. There is a high degree of homogeneity in the region, though Brazil and certain Caribbean nations are the exceptions. The political landscape traditionally oscillates between far-left and far-right political ideologies. Most of the region’s economies are driven by the export of commodities and natural resources, while its many natural barriers facilitate illicit activities like smuggling and drug trafficking, making organized crime one of the region’s biggest security threats. Latin American geopolitics is defined by proximity to the U.S. and its distance to every other region in the world. After years of relative dormancy, the U.S. is actively reengaging with the region from a position of dominance and strength.
 
Forecasts
 
Latin American countries will diversify their economic relationships to include greater participation by European (France and Germany) and Asian (Japan, South Korea and India) countries.
 
Concerns over U.S. tariffs and Washington’s volatile economic policy will drive these efforts. Brazil and Chile will lead the way in areas such as South Atlantic development, traditional energy, critical minerals, technology and AI – all of which are meant to reduce the risk of strategic dependencies on the United States.
 
Several countries (Ecuador, Argentina, Chile and Costa Rica) will develop and implement new strategies to replicate the success of El Salvador’s security crackdown.
 
Driving the reform are social pressure, the need for better economic environments and, crucially, the desire to avoid being targeted for intervention by Washington. The programs will focus on organized crime, migration and border controls.
 
Europe
 
Europe is best understood as a group of interconnected subregions, each exerting distinct pressures on the Continent’s stability and strategic direction. The traditional Western-oriented model under which it has long operated is giving way to a more diffuse organization. In this model, the Franco-German core and the U.K. are engaging more with the Poland-Romania-Greece containment line, the Balkans and the Mediterranean frontier, all of which form overlapping strategic zones. The Black Sea, meanwhile, is an arena in which borderlands meet, making it a geopolitical node that also shapes European security. The interaction of these five forces determines Europe’s security posture, shapes its economic governance and influences its political cohesion – not to mention its military posture. The U.S. decision to pull back from Europe has complicated this model.
 
Forecasts
 
Economically, the European Union will remain the dominant force in Europe.
 
The EU is still the world’s largest integrated international market – indeed, the eurozone is still expanding – but leaders in Brussels are increasingly being challenged by sovereigntist movements calling for common policy to be subordinated to state-based policy. (The U.S. withdrawal will likely aggravate this trend.) Meanwhile, the Franco-German engine will be constrained as domestic economic stagnation in Germany and socio-political instability in France limit their capacity to lead and preserve the EU at almost any cost.
 
Europe will start to devolve into a multiregional system rather than a unified bloc.
In response to security challenges, including the war in Ukraine, the EU will either strengthen political unity in the face of shared security threats or break apart. (We believe the latter is more likely.) The result will depend on how quickly decisions are made on European reindustrialization and the outcome of the Ukraine war, potentially including a negotiated settlement.
 
The United Kingdom will be the leading European security actor outside the EU, informally shaping NATO and EU security agendas alongside France and Germany.
The U.K. will remain a first-tier European security actor, exercising influence through the coalition of the willing, intelligence dominance and military credibility. A de facto European “security directorate” will persist around Ukraine, with the U.K. providing hard power and intelligence, France strategic framing and nuclear weight, and Germany financial and industrial backing.
 
The Poland-Romania-Greece axis will anchor Eastern Europe’s containment line. Turkey will be the dominant power in the Black Sea.
 
This trilateral containment line will become increasingly explicit and institutionalized as it emerges into the security axis connecting the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. It will anchor deterrence, logistics and strategic coordination along the eastern and southeastern flanks, and as important, it will bypass Turkey when necessary.
 
Russia-Turkey dynamics in the Black Sea will test NATO cohesion while elevating Romania to a position of regional security hub.
 
Relations between Russia and Turkey are likely to grow tactically accommodating, driven by shared interests in the South Caucasus and the Middle East, even as tensions persist in the Black Sea. As the European coalition of the willing pushes for a firmer posture there, Turkey’s caution, and its desire to preserve its strategic autonomy, will complicate NATO cohesion. Romania, meanwhile, will work with Turkey and Bulgaria to secure the Black Sea and facilitate Ukrainian trade while strengthening military mobility through the Danube and connectivity with Poland. It will thus be compelled to maintain an equilibrium among these actors, accelerating the operationalization of its role as a key security and logistics hub.
 
Russia
 
Russia – the largest country by territory – is a vast landmass stretching from the Baltic Sea in the west to the Pacific coast in the east and from the Arctic in the north to the Caucasus Mountains and the Caspian Sea in the south, making the country a de facto region in its own right. Its resources are unevenly distributed, as are its residents: Two-thirds of the population lives in the European part of the country, while resource-rich Siberia and the Far East remain sparsely populated and lack sufficient infrastructure for development. The collapse of the Soviet Union left Moscow with an economy in crisis and unprotected borders, prompting the Kremlin to revive growth and ensure security. Historically, Russia has experienced threats and pressure from the West, and thus sees NATO’s presence near its borders as the main threat to its security. Many of the areas the government controlled during the Soviet era are still subject to Russian influence, though even that is starting to change.
 
Forecast
 
Russia will try to take advantage of new business opportunities in Europe.
 
Washington’s new policy of (measured) withdrawal will open doors for Russia in Europe. Political rhetoric aside, expect business climates to warm between Russia and countries such as Germany, Italy and France – all of which are in danger of economic stagnation. The mutual need to revive their economies will force them to search for new business partners and investment opportunities, even if they hail from former adversary countries.
 
Russia will reduce engagement with allies in the Western Hemisphere.
 
Russia’s relations with the United States will determine how Moscow interacts with its allies in the Western Hemisphere. Put simply, Russia will pull back some of its support in Latin America – namely, Venezuela and Cuba – to curry political favor with the U.S. as talks over Ukraine continue. Russia will support these countries only as far as the U.S. allows.
 
Central Asia
 
Situated at the heart of Eurasia and bounded by Russia to the north, the Caspian Sea to the west, Iran and Afghanistan to the south, and China to the east, Central Asia is the most landlocked region in the world. Inhabited largely by ethnically Turkic populations, it has historically been dominated by Russia. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, five sovereign states emerged, all of them endowed with vast energy and mineral resources. Over the past quarter century, China has steadily expanded its influence across the region – more in some countries than others. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the two principal regional actors that shape the region’s political and economic dynamics.
 
Forecast
 
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will lead the region as their governments test the limits of modest reform and manage internal pressures, all while navigating the shifting dynamics of the U.S., China and Russia.
 
Domestically, each government will weigh the benefits of incremental change against the risk of popular unrest and threats to its own authority. On foreign policy, they will try to exploit opportunities presented by great-power competition, seeking aid, investment and strategic cover from one or more external actors. This dual focus will define regional stability as governments attempt to maximize their autonomy without entangling themselves too much in broader affairs.
 
Central Asia will be shaped primarily by developments in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Iran.
There is growing competition between new and old players in the region: the U.S., China, the EU, Turkey, India and Russia. This rivalry threatens Moscow’s traditional role as the region’s security guarantor and political arbiter. The war in Ukraine will constrain Moscow’s ability to project power southward, creating openings for China and the U.S. to expand influence. Afghanistan will continue to be a major source of uncertainty, while domestic political upheaval in Iran could open up opportunities for Central Asian nations to access ports on associated infrastructure.
 
South Caucasus
 
Situated between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus is a vital land bridge that links Europe and Asia. Its strategic position has long made it an arena of competition for Russia, Turkey and Iran. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia emerged as independent states, but Russia was still the preponderant power in the region. Over the past few years, however, Russia has lost much of its power, creating an opening for Turkey to expand its influence, particularly in the aftermath of Azerbaijan’s 2020 military victory over Armenia. More recently, the U.S. has exploited a strategic opportunity in southern Armenia via a transportation corridor that has upended the regional balance of power.
 
Forecast
 
Azerbaijan will enhance its regional influence, but political developments in Iran could derail the process.
 
The government in Baku will parlay its victory over Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war into greater regional power. The U.S. will back its play because Washington is keen for the region to become a transport hub that links the West with Eurasia. Azerbaijan will exploit U.S. interests to gain diplomatic leverage that will further enhance its influence. However, the political transition underway in Iran could, depending on how it turns out, change Baku’s strategic calculations, disrupt trade routes or alter the balance of power along its southern border.
 
Elections in Armenia scheduled for June could trigger a political crisis that jeopardizes Yerevan’s efforts to pull away from Russia.
 
Armenia will proceed with its strategic reorientation away from Russia as it tries to diversify security partnerships and deepen economic ties with the West and other regional actors. However, structural constraints – namely, its reliance on Russia in strategic areas – will limit the speed and scope of its reorientation. Meanwhile, potential destabilization brought on by national elections could empower revanchist or anti-Turkic forces. This disruption would raise the possibility of renewed Russian involvement in regional security.
 
Middle East
 
The Middle East is encapsulated by the Mediterranean, Black, Caspian and Arabian seas. For more than 1,000 years, this predominantly Arab region has been dominated by non-Arab powers. During the Cold War, regional geopolitics crystallized around four principal actors – Turkey, Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia – complemented by a set of influential secondary players such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
 
Forecast
 
Iran has entered a period of systemic uncertainty in which it will no longer be able to project much influence in the region. In 2026, it will struggle with civil unrest, regime transition and the need to reach an accommodation with the United States.
 
It’s unlikely that the regime will outright collapse because there’s no unified opposition to speak of. Even so, the regime will evolve – a process that has been years in the making – and the evolution will gain momentum as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps weakens, the supreme leader is replaced and mass unrest continues. The government, then, will be in no position to project power; instead, it will adopt a risk-averse defensive posture, prioritizing internal control over foreign activism. This will lead to not so much a true reconciliation with the U.S. but some kind of pragmatic accommodation, without which it will struggle to manage its political transition.
 
Regional rivalries will create new fault lines in the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden that will threaten regional stability and undermine U.S. geostrategy.
 
The competition between Israel and Turkey will intensify. There will be a high risk of confrontation, particularly over competing objectives in Syria. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, will resist taking on more regional responsibilities except as they relate to Yemen, the policies toward which will accentuate strategic differences between Riyadh and the government of the United Arab Emirates. These differences will obstruct U.S. efforts to offload certain responsibilities to allies, so expect Washington to mediate and selectively engage these nations to prevent regional instability.
 
South Asia
 
Also known as the Indian subcontinent, South Asia comprises the area of land extending from the arc of mountains running from the Hindu Kush to the Arakan Mountains, down to the Indian Ocean. It is the most densely populated region in the world and is marked by extraordinary ethnic and cultural diversity. With the exception of the past eight decades, South Asia has been dominated by external powers. In the post-World War II era, three principal nation-states – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – have emerged, and their enduring rivalries have largely shaped the region’s geopolitical dynamics.
 
Forecast
 
India will focus on improving its standing with the U.S., even as it maintains ties to Russia.
 
India’s relationship with the U.S. has been subordinated to Washington’s efforts to accommodate China and restore relations with Pakistan. To hedge against this strategic uncertainty, New Delhi will leverage its ties to Russia so that it can have greater autonomy in defense, energy and diplomacy. The government, meanwhile, will make every effort to reach a trade understanding with Washington.
 
India will enhance its influence by expanding its naval capabilities into the Indian Ocean.
Maritime security is increasingly becoming central to India’s strategic autonomy, so expect New Delhi to pay more time, attention and money to building out blue water assets that will, in theory, counter China’s influence in South Asia and create a more favorable balance of power.
 
India will be forced to manage tensions on its eastern and western borders.
 
To the west, Taliban-supported proxies and Baloch insurgents will destabilize Pakistan as its security forces struggle to stabilize the periphery. Islamabad will have to balance internal security with external commitments and deepen its reliance on selective regional partnerships, especially with the United States. (India will try to improve ties with the Afghan government in an effort to counter Pakistan.) To the east, the government in Bangladesh is trying to manage the rise of Islamist forces, even as it orients its foreign policy more toward India’s regional competitor or, China. This realignment will narrow India’s strategic depth to the east and alter the balance of influence in the Bay of Bengal.
 
Africa
 
Africa can be broken down into four regions that have their own distinct characteristics – Southern Africa, East Africa, West Africa and North Africa. North African governments prioritize domestic control and security while maintaining good trade relations with Europe. For East Africa, development and conflict and crisis management are a necessary adjunct to trade relations, particularly for inland countries such as Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan. In West Africa, there is a security vacuum that Islamic extremist groups have tried to fill, and their emergence has started to threaten coastal nations. This will likely result in military action to contain the unrest. Southern Africa is relatively stable and is looking to attract investments in industrialization activities to increase the profit share from their own critical mineral reserves. All four regions will continue to be areas of competition, but new actors are seeking deeper involvement as traditional powers try to up their engagement (largely as a means to access resources).
 
Forecast
 
The competition between the U.S. and China in Africa will take shape along strategic resource corridors.
 
Each will prioritize extractive and logistics-focused investments tied to critical minerals, hydrocarbons and transport infrastructure. The presence of Arab Gulf states, India, Russia and Europe will intensify the competition, resulting in a weakening of local leverage over long-term economic outcomes and a strengthening of transactional agreements.
 
Foreign security partnerships and information control will become central tools of regime survival. Partnerships could include France, which had been run out of certain Sahelian countries.
 
Governments facing questions of legitimacy will rely on external security assistance – usually from Moscow but also increasingly from the Middle East – and online controls to contain dissent, further limiting prospects for institutional reform. France will also return to West Africa, to some extent or another, to help prevent military coups that install pro-Russian, anti-French dictators.
 
Be vigilant.
 
Stay informed.
 
Train.
 
Prepare to respond & recover.
 
Nobody is Coming.
 
It’s up to us.
 
—END REPORT

 
 
 

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