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Title: January 16, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 16 JANUARY 2026
 
DOMESTIC TERRORISM
 
**Trump Threatens to Invoke Insurrection Act in Response to Minnesota Protests **- As seething tensions over immigration enforcement fuel intense protests in Minnesota, President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act, a 19th-century law that would allow him to dispatch the military for civilian law enforcement. Any attempt to use the act would likely face legal challenges. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz urged calm on Wednesday and accused the administration of fueling tensions, with other Democratic governors denouncing the White House’s “threats for a chaotic and unAmerican federal takeover.” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said ICE operations would continue. The dispute underscores growing friction between federal authorities and state leaders over immigration enforcement.
 
FROM FORWARD OBSERVER
 
**TWIN CITIES CPUSA CALLS ON “POPULAR FORCES” TO PROTEST**: The Twin Cities Club of the Communist Party, USA (CPUSA) called on “the popular forces” of Minneapolis and St. Paul, MN to conduct mass protests every day until Operation Metro Surge ends “and these fascist forces exiled from our city.” The Twin Cities Club CPUSA state and local Democrat officials have shown they are prepared to back and protect protesters and activists from “this fascist terror.” The group called for protestors to rise to the moment, win the battle, and show “federally-deployed terrorists” that “we are many and they are few.”
 
(Forward Observer) **FO COMMENT:** - Why It Matters: Far Left groups are involved in organizing and training anti-ICE activist and rapid response groups, and conducting direct action demonstration training. These groups which include CPUSA and the Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) are using protest to build anti-ICE resistance capacity. These protests also serve an important signalling function for Trump Resistance groups by showing the Trump Resistance has “a crowd” which they can leverage into other political activities.
 
ARCTIC SITREP
 
**The Arctic camp where troops are training for war with Russia **- Britain is expanding Arctic military training in northern Norway as concerns grow over Russia’s northern capabilities and wider instability across the Arctic. At Camp Viking in Skjold, Royal Marines are preparing for high-intensity conflict under conditions reflecting potential NATO Article 5 scenarios, with the U.K. set to double its troop presence over three years. Elite troops take part in extreme weather training, camping in subzero temperatures and leaping through ice holes. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said Arctic security must be viewed as a single, interconnected theater spanning Europe and North America. European allies are backing a proposed NATO “Arctic Sentry” mission to counter Russian threats, even as President Donald Trump fuels tensions by pressing U.S. claims over Greenland, complicating alliance cohesion.
 
U.K. RELATEDLY
 
**Real-life Dad's Army: Veterans aged 65 face call up and told 'prepare for war'** - The Government is set to increase the age at which Britain’s strategic reserve of retired troops can be called up from 55 to 65. The new Armed Forces bill will be introduced to Parliament with the aim of making it easier to mobilize retired military personnel. Under existing rules, the pool of retired soldiers can be called upon in the event of “national danger, great emergency or attack in the UK” however the new law will lower this threshold to “warlike preparations” which is the existing threshold for reservists who have recently left the armed forces. The changes will come into force next year, if passed by parliament. The government estimates that there are around 95,000 members of the strategic reserve including veterans from the Royal Navy, Army, and RAF. The Army currently has just over 70,000 full-time fully trained troops ready for battle.
 
GREENLAND
 
**German, Dutch and Canadian troops to arrive in Greenland within hours
 
**Germany is sending soldiers to Greenland as several international players ramp up threats against the mineral-rich autonomous Danish territory.
 
Danish allies, including Germany, Canada and the Netherlands, are deploying troops to Greenland to participate in exercises amid a growing threat of incursion from Washington and other adversaries.
 
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced the major move shortly after local reports emerged about the operations. Various NATO nations are building up their presence on the mineral-rich Arctic island following ramped-up threats of annexation by U.S. President Donald Trump, a move that has support from some members of Congress It also comes as Russia and China advance their aggression in the Arctic, which remains a grave concern to NATO.
 
“Security in the Arctic is of crucial importance to the Kingdom and our Arctic allies, and it is therefore important that we, in close cooperation with allies, further strengthen our ability to operate in the region,” Lund Poulsen said in a statement. “The Danish Defense Forces, together with several Arctic and European allies, will explore in the coming weeks how an increased presence and exercise activity in the Arctic can be implemented."
 
He also confirmed that Denmark's defense ministry is sending Danish aircraft, naval assets and troops for the training exercises, which will include “receiving allied forces, operating fighter jets and carrying out maritime security tasks,” the ministry said.
 
U.S. GRAY ZONE CYBER STRATEGY?
 
**Is the US adopting the gray zone cyber playbook? ** - Venezuela may well illustrate a shift toward cyber-enabled disruption of civilian or economic systems as an instrument of U.S. power operating below the threshold of open hostilities, i.e., gray zone conflict. Cyber operations help create decisionmaking 'friction' for adversaries without triggering declared war. The character of modern cyber operations is that they are less dependent on single exploits and more on actions leading to persistent access, identity abuse, supply chain dependencies, and detailed mapping of complex systems. Cyber-enabled campaigns can have multiple effects, including intermittent failures, data integrity concerns, or operational disruptions. These gray zone tactics do not aim to destroy systems, but to maximize operational uncertainty for targeted states and leaders.
 
VENEZUELA RELATEDLY
 
**Cyberattack in Venezuela Demonstrated Precision of U.S. Capabilities **- A U.S. cyberoperation in early January temporarily disrupted power and radar systems in Caracas, underscoring the precision of American offensive cyber capabilities, according to officials briefed on the mission. The operation supported a raid that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, now facing drug charges in the United States. Senators are expected to question Lt. Gen. Joshua M. Rudd, nominee to lead U.S. Cyber Command, during confirmation hearings. Officials said the attack demonstrated the ability to disrupt infrastructure while limiting civilian harm, with power restored quickly. The episode signals a more assertive U.S. cyber posture under President Donald Trump toward Venezuela.
 
IRAN & STARLINK
 
**Tehran uses electronic warfare to target Starlink, as Iranians try to skirt internet blackout** - The Iranian government has begun a campaign of GPS spoofing attacks on SpaceX’s Starlink internet terminals in an unprecedented effort to cut its citizens off from the rest of the world, according to new reports. Tehran instituted an internet blackout on Jan. 8 after weeks of increasingly violent nationwide protests over Iran’s faltering economy. Some Iranians were able to access the internet in certain sectors outside large cities, but large population centers had unstable internet connections. Starlink terminals, which use GPS signaling to connect to the internet via satellite relay, were seen as a way to circumvent the blackout. But data from gpsjam.org shows increased GPS interference around large cities in Iran after the internet blackout took effect, suggesting Iranian authorities were aware of the Starlink workaround. Active interference from the Iranian government has created significant internet instability for users, with reports indicating packet loss, in which data fails to be transported completely, reaching as high as 80%. This interference is believed to involve flooding the Starlink satellites’ transmission with digital noise or spoofed GPS signals, producing unstable connections on the ground. Starlink users in Iran also risk being arrested and having their property confiscated. It has been illegal to own a Starlink terminal in Iran since June.
 
U.S. NAVAL ASSETS HEADED TO MIDDLE EAST
 
**Pentagon moving carrier strike group toward Middle East amid tensions with Iran
The Pentagon on Thursday said it is moving a carrier strike group from the South China Sea toward the Middle East as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to rise.
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its strike group were spotted moving west away from the Indo-Pacific region, according to images from. Copernicus, a satellite company that monitors maritime traffic.
 
The movement of the carrier strike group — which includes fighter jets, guided missile destroyers and at least one attack submarine — is expected to take about a week, a source told NewsNation.
 
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for comment.
This movement comes as tensions between Washington and Tehran have spiked amid unrest in Iran over its economy and questions about whether President Trump will strike the country aid mass protests challenging the autocratic regime.
 
DAESH/ISIS IN THE CYBER REALM
 
**From caliphate to cyberspace: ISIS exploits digital platforms to endure and inspire** - The Islamic State (ISIS), despite losing its self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria over half a decade ago, remains a potent force in the global ideological landscape. In the recent publication of its newsletter al Naba 526 titled “The Pride of Sydney”, the organization discusses the use of online platforms to radicalise, mobilise, and attack, citing the Bondi Beach attack in Sydney, Australia, as a perfect example. The Islamic State’s digital operations in 2025 remain a key pillar of its modus operandi, enabling it to maintain global influence and achieve its operational goals, particularly targeting younger demographics who are both most active online and vulnerable to radicalization. Contemporary jihadist activities, from the Bondi Beach attack to sporadic plots in Europe, North America and beyond, highlight this continued online dependence and its ability to drive people towards violence without direct contact.
 
AQ FOOTPRINT IN INDIA
 
**Al Qaeda scales up tech enabled operations as it eyes pan-India footprint** - Al Qaeda has been using high-end technology to carry out operations in India, which has made investigations more challenging. Probe agencies have found that servers are being hosted in multiple countries to carry out propaganda and radicalise the people. An Intelligence Bureau official stated that the outfit is targeting the entire country and seeks to disseminate content to every corner of India. Unlike the Islamic State, which has decided to target people down South only, Al-Qaeda has bigger plans. The official added that the idea behind the outfit is to proceed slowly and steadily, without engaging in any major operation. The operations are very low, so the detection is very hard.
 
Investigations clearly suggest the scale at which the outfit is operating, and the trends are extremely dangerous. Recent investigations show that Al Qaeda has set up its servers in Afghanistan, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Pakistan. Each one of these servers is being used to deliver content to the Indian audience, another official said. While tracking down these servers has been a major challenge for the security agencies, the scale at which the outfit is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) for its India operations is more worrying. Officials pointed out that the outfit has been exploiting AI to spread its ideology, recruit, and also carry out disinformation campaigns against India. Intelligence assessments suggest that Al Qaeda has a much wider audience in India compared to all other terror groups. This is largely due to the founder of the terror group, Osama Bin Laden. He still is a hero figure for many, and this is what is being exploited majorly by the outfit for its operations in India, an Intelligence Bureau official said.
 
INDIA RELATEDLY
 
**Manipur, India: Recruitment module busted; three alleged insurgents, including woman, arrested** - A joint team of the central security forces and Manipur police busted a fresh recruitment module of insurgents with the arrest of three alleged underground cadres, including a woman, in Imphal West district on Tuesday. Officials reported on Wednesday that attempts by some youths heading for arms training with the insurgents were thwarted by the timely action of the security forces.
 
SYRIA
 
**Clashes erupt between members of “ISIS” and “SDF” in Al-Zerr Town in Deir Ezzor** - Armed clashes erupted between members of SDF and gunmen of ISIS, after the latter attacked a military vehicle of “SDF” as it was checking military checkpoints in Al-Zerr Town in eastern Deir Ezzor countryside. However, no casualties were reported. According to reliable SOHR sources, SDF brought military reinforcements from Al-Baseera City to the site of clashes, amid a state of security tension.
 
LEBANON
 
**Lebanon Arrests Syrian Accused of Funding Pro-Assad Fighters **- Lebanese authorities have arrested Ahmad Dunia, a Syrian national accused of financing former President Bashar Assad’s loyalists, officials said. Dunia is allegedly linked to Assad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf and ex-Syrian General Suheil al-Hassan, who is believed to be in Russia. Investigators say Dunia funneled money to pro-Assad fighters active in Syria’s Alawite-dominated coastal areas. His name appeared on a list provided by a recent Syrian security delegation to Beirut. The arrest highlights lingering cross-border tensions as remnants of the Assad-era network resist Syria’s new Islamist-led government.
 
TURKISH AIRLINE INCIDENT
 
**Turkish Airlines flight makes emergency landing in Barcelona after 'threat' alert** - A Turkish Airlines flight made an emergency landing Thursday at Barcelona’s El Prat Airport after a passenger created an in-flight wireless network whose name contained a bomb threat, an airlines spokesperson said. As the flight from Istanbul was approaching its destination in Barcelona “it was detected that a passenger established an in-flight internet access point and set the network name to include a bomb threat,” the spokesperson, Yahya Üstün, said. As a result, the aircraft made an emergency landing. Spain’s Civil Guard police force said it is investigating the incident, and added that the airport was operating normally.
 
—END REPORT