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Title: December 5, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 5 DECEMBER 2025
 
DOMESTIC SITREP
 
JAN 6TH PIPE BOMB SUSPECT UPDATE
 
The FBI on Thursday arrested a man accused of placing two pipe bombs outside the headquarters of the Republican and Democratic national parties in Washington on the eve of the U.S. Capitol attack, an abrupt breakthrough in an investigation that for years flummoxed law enforcement and spawned conspiracy theories about Jan. 6, 2021.
The suspect was identified as Brian J. Cole Jr., 30, of Woodbridge, Virginia, but key questions remain unanswered after his arrest on explosives charges, including a possible motive and what connection he had to the Jan. 6th Capitol event.
 
Law enforcement officials reviewed credit card purchases of pipe bomb components, cellphone tower data and a license plate reader to zero in on Cole, according to an FBI affidavit filed in the case. The FBI and Justice Department declined to elaborate on what led them to the suspect, but characterized his arrest as the result of a reinvigorated investigation during the Trump administration and credited a fresh analysis of already-collected evidence and data.
 
Hours after Cole was taken into custody, unmarked law enforcement vehicles lined the cul-de-sac where Cole’s home is while FBI agents helped shoo away onlookers. Authorities were seen entering the house and examining the trunk of a car nearby.
 
FBI says the bombs could have killed people. The pipe bombs were placed on the evening of Jan. 5, 2021, near the offices of the Democratic and Republican national committees. Nobody was hurt before the bombs were rendered safe, but the FBI has said both devices could have been lethal.
 
Seeking a breakthrough, the FBI last January publicized additional information about the investigation, including an estimate that the suspect was about 5 feet, 7 inches tall, as well as previously unreleased video of the suspect placing one of the bombs.
 
MIDDLE EAST SITREP
 
ISRAEL
 
Hopeful. Israel hopes to reach peace accords with more Islamic countries including some outside the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview. He also restated his intention to visit New York City despite threats from Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to arrest him if he visits. Separately, Washington’s permanent representative to the United Nations, David Waltz, said the U.S. is engaged in “very good conversations with Azerbaijan, Indonesia and others about contributing troops to an international stabilization force for Gaza.
 
IRAN
 
Water crisis. Iran is negotiating with neighboring countries to purchase water amid a severe drought, Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said.
 
U.S. & LIBYA
 
U.S.-Libya talks. Commander of the Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar met in Benghazi with the head of U.S. Africa Command, Gen. Dagvin Anderson, and the U.S. charge d’affaires in Libya, Jeremy Berndt. They discussed security and defense cooperation specifically against terrorism, human trafficking and illegal migration, as well as developing joint military programs and expanding economic and trade cooperation.
 
ISW Key Takeaways:
 
• Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki's Political Efforts: Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki reportedly told the United States via unidentified mediators that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if the United States supports his bid to become prime minister, according to an unidentified senior Iraqi official speaking to a Kurdish journalist on December 3. Maliki would likely attempt to transform elements of the Iraqi security establishment, including the PMF, into a force that he could use to enhance his personal power as prime minister.
 
• Iranian Influence in Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi actors reportedly pressured the Iraqi federal government to reverse its decision to designate the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah as terrorist organizations.
 
• Militia Activity in Iraq: The Iraqi federal government accused “outlaws” on December 3 of committing the November 26 drone attack on the Khor Mor Gas Field in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqi federal government often uses the term “outlaws” to accuse Iranian-backed Iraqi militias of conducting attacks without explicitly implicating the militias.
 
• Turkey’s View of the Syrian Democratic Forces: A spokesperson for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political party suggested that Turkey will no longer consider the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to be a “terrorist organization” if the SDF hands over key resources and infrastructure to the Syrian government as part of its integration into the Syrian state. The spokesperson’s statement suggests that Turkey may be anticipating the SDF’s compliance with the March 10 agreement, which possibly indicates positive momentum in the integration process as the end-of-year integration deadline approaches.
 
• Iranian Military Posture: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy began an annual two-day military exercise on December 4 in which it displayed its “interception” capabilities, likely as part of an Iranian effort to deter the United States and its allies from seizing Iranian vessels.
 
GLOBAL SITREP
 
U.S. ARMS FOR UKRAINE
 
Paying for it. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said it would be “premature” for Rome to participate in NATO’s program to buy U.S. weapons for Ukraine while peace negotiations are underway. In the event of a deal, Kyiv would need security guarantees instead of weapons, he said. Facing funding shortages and resistance within the ruling coalition, Italy’s government has been tempering its support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand became the first non-NATO countries to pledge contributions to the U.S. weapons plan, the so-called Prioritized Ukraine Requirement List initiative. Australia committed 50 million Australian dollars ($33 million) to PURL on top of AU$45 million in other military aid, while New Zealand pledged 15 million New Zealand dollars ($9 million) to the program.
 
FINLAND & UKRAINE
 
Guarantees versus measures. Finland is not ready to offer Ukraine security guarantees but would participate in “security measures,” Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said. Speaking alongside his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, the Finnish leader said he had not seen “any details or concrete proposals” for such guarantees, which he said only the U.S. and major European countries could credibly provide. Kristersson reiterated the importance of U.S. involvement and said the best security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian military supported by Europe.
 
RUSSIA & INDIA
 
Submarine lease. Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a two-day official visit to India, where he will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Droupadi Murmu. Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov is in India for a meeting on bilateral military and military-technical cooperation. The visits coincide with reports that India will lease a nuclear-powered submarine from Russia for approximately $2 billion, with delivery expected within two years.
 
CHINA & FRANCE
 
China-France talks. China will provide $100 million in humanitarian aid for Gaza, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced during a joint press conference in Beijing with French President Emmanuel Macron. The French leader urged Xi to use China’s “decisive” influence to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. They also discussed economic and trade frictions, with Xi offering cooperation on green energy, digital economy, biopharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence, and welcoming French investment and trade.
 
GZB INFOCUS: How Investors Allocate Their Investments, by Country
 
Key Takeaways:
 
• U.S. investors allocate 78% of their equity portfolio to domestic assets, demonstrating a clear home bias.
 
• Investors in Norway and Canada hold a significant share of U.S. equities in their portfolios, at 48% and 45%, respectively.
 
“Home bias” is a common tendency for investors to invest in domestic assets.
This pattern is especially pronounced among U.S. investors—likely influenced by the country’s outsized role in global financial markets.
 
Similarly, Japanese investors heavily concentrate their investments in local assets.
This graphic shows how different countries invest across equities and bonds, based on data from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
 
U.S. investors keep 78% of their equity holdings in domestic markets, a share comparable to Japan.
 
In contrast, many countries allocate a significant portion of their portfolios to U.S. equities, such as Norway (48%) and Canada (45%). Notably, Norwegian investors hold only 12% of their equity allocation in domestic stocks, despite strong average annualized returns of 13.7% since 2020.
 
UK investors display a similar outward tilt, holding just 19% of their equities at home. This is likely influenced by weak stock market performance and the lingering effects of Brexit. Since 2020, the FTSE 100 has delivered less than 5% in annualized returns.
 
As we can see, Japanese investors illustrate the strongest home bias, with 80% of fixed income investments held domestically.
 
Meanwhile, European investors also mirror this trend, with 69% allocated into domestic bonds. Factors such as familiarity and potential tax advantages may influence this trend.
 
For investors diversifying abroad, Switzerland has the highest allocation in U.S. bonds, at 33%. This is likely influenced by the strength of its currency, and comparatively higher U.S. bond yields given Switzerland’s current 0% interest rate.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Build resilient communities.
 
—END REPORT