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Title: November 12, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 12 NOVEMBER 2025 

U.S. ARMY DRONE RESPONSE TEAMS 

**Army certifies rapid anti-drone response team** - U.S. Northern Command has certified an 11-soldier Counter-small UAS fly-away kit team following field tests in Florida and North Dakota, enabling rapid deployment to protect domestic military installations from drone incursions, Gen. Gregory Guillot said. The Anduril-produced kit layers sensors and effectors — Wisp (AI infrared), Pulsar (AI electromagnetic warfare) and the Heimdal sensor trailer — and includes Anvil, an autonomous interceptor with a munition variant. Tested during the Falcon Peak 25.2 exercise while defending Minot AFB, the team defeated more than 100 unmanned aerial targets. Most operators had limited prior drone experience but were certified following intensive evaluations.  

UKRAINE UPDATE

**Russian forces roll 'Mad Max'-style into battered Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, video shows** - Russian forces claimed to have deepened their advance in eastern Ukraine, capturing the eastern part of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, including an oil depot and several rail stops, according to a Russian commander. Moscow also reported progress south and west of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, releasing footage showing armored vehicles and troops entering the city. Kyiv denied that Pokrovsk had fallen but admitted to increased fighting.  

RUSSIAN OIL REFINERY HIT

**‘Explosions and fire recorded’ — Russia’s Orsk oil refinery hit in Ukrainian strike, General Staff says **- Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia’s Orenburg Oblast on Nov. 11, causing explosions and a fire that damaged one of the facility’s main processing units, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. The refinery, capable of processing 6.6 million tons of oil annually, supplies fuel to the Russian military. Local authorities confirmed an industrial site was hit but did not identify it. The attack follows a previous strike on the same facility in October and coincided with Ukrainian operations against refineries in Saratov Oblast and Russian targets in occupied Crimea and Donetsk. Damage assessments are ongoing.  

ISW MIDDLE EAST SITREP 

       •    Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: Iraq held parliamentary elections on November 11. Iraq’s electoral commission, the Independent High Electoral Commission, announced on November 11 that it will release preliminary election results at 10 AM EST on November 12.

            •          US and Lebanese Government Efforts to Disarm Hezbollah: The United States reportedly gave the Lebanese government a list of economic and security demands aimed at further degrading Hezbollah during a recent US Treasury Department delegation’s visit to Beirut on November 9. The United States reportedly gave Lebanon a 60-day deadline to fulfill at least some of these demands. Hezbollah would likely use any delay in the Lebanese government’s implementation of the US demands to reconstitute some of its capabilities.

            •          Iranian Reflections on the Israel-Iran War: Iranian Passive Defense Organization head Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali sought to shift blame for Iran’s defensive failures during the Israel-Iran War onto government institutions in an interview on November 8. Jalali stated that Iran has prioritized rapid development over security considerations in recent years, which has exacerbated Iran’s security vulnerabilities.

ISRAEL

The U.S. in Israel. The United States plans to build a military base in Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip, according to Ynet news. It will house several thousand American troops who will be tasked with maintaining the ceasefire in the region. The base – which is reportedly the result of a negotiated agreement between the U.S. and Israel – is expected to cost half a billion dollars. Some experts note this decision violates traditional Israeli policy that limits international intervention in the region.

TURKEY IN ISRAEL? 

Turkey deploys? Turkey is preparing to deploy approximately 2,000 troops to the Gaza Strip without U.S. approval and without consent from Israel, the Middle East Eye reported. If it goes through, the deployment will be part of the international stabilization force meant to keep the peace after the Israel-Hamas war.

SYRIASLY?

America’s newest ally? Following a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said bilateral relations have entered a new era and Syria is now a geopolitical ally in which U.S. companies can invest. Within a week of the president’s return, the government in Damascus is expected to hold a new round of talks with the Syrian Democratic Forces on how to incorporate its military leaders (and Kurdish forces) into the new government. The U.S. is expected to participate in the talks.

Note: We must have bought Ahmad al-Sharaa, and own him as an asset via “the company.” Only way this makes sense to me. I can roll with that. 

Force majeure in Iraq. Russian energy giant Lukoil has declared force majeure at the Iraqi oil field of West Qurna-2. (Invoking force majeure releases certain parties from fulfilling their contractual obligations due to unforeseen circumstances.) The declaration follows the imposition of U.S. sanctions, which forced Baghdad to halt all payments to Lukoil. If the situation is not resolved within six months, Lukoil will cease production and completely withdraw from the project.

IRAN’S OIL 

Iranian crude boom. In September, Iran's crude oil exports rose to more than 2 million barrels per day according to tanker tracking company TankerTrackers. This is the highest level of crude oil exports since 2018, indicating an increase in supplies despite U.S. sanctions.

GLOBAL SITREP

CHINA & RARE EARTHS

China (sort of) honors its promise. China is developing a new "verified end user" system that would allow Beijing to issue rare earth export licenses to civilian firms while excluding those with ties to the U.S. military. Sources familiar with the plan say the system will allow China to fulfill its obligations to facilitate the export of rare earths to the U.S. without giving American defense contractors a leg up in the industry.

TURKEY IN AFRICA

African extraction. Turkey has officially inaugurated its first foreign state-backed mining venture in Niger that will extract gold and expand Ankara’s global footprint. Elsewhere, the military junta in Guinea has brought online the world’s largest iron ore mine — a project 30 years in the making. The mine will be operated by Chinese-Singaporean Winning Consortium Simandou and is set to provide a significant boost to Chinese stocks of iron ore and steel. The new mine will have a significant impact on global supplies of iron ore and challenge Australia’s market dominance.

KHAZAKSTAN 

Kazakhstan warms to Russia. The night before his visit to Russia, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev published an article praising all the interests his country shares with Russia, noting in particular the importance of their strategic partnership as the backbone of Eurasian security. The article also said Russia and Kazakhstan plan to sign an agreement that puts bilateral ties on the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance.

CHINA & MOROCCO 

China and Morocco. More than 170 companies from China’s Hunan province – mostly firms in industrial equipment manufacturing, automobiles, electronics, renewable energy, biotechnology, construction and agricultural technologies – met with Moroccan businessmen representing companies in food industries, construction materials, textiles, logistics and consulting services. The event was meant to enhance bilateral economic ties and explore new opportunities for trade and investment.

THAILAND & CAMBODIA

Tensions in Southeast Asia. The Thai government said it would suspend implementation of an expanded ceasefire agreement with Cambodia signed last month in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump. Tensions between Bangkok and Phnom Penh escalated after four Thai soldiers were injured in a mine explosion on Nov. 10. The Thai military accused Cambodia of planting landmines. The Cambodian government denied the accusation.

NEW DELHI AT THE KREMLIN 

India and Russia. A delegation of Indian exporters is set to visit Russia as part of New Delhi’s efforts to expand into new export markets following U.S. President Donald Trump’s sharp tariff increases. The delegation will include more than 20 representatives from the machinery and tools sectors, which together account for nearly one-fifth of India’s total goods exports. The head of the delegation noted that India’s machinery exports to Russia are expected to reach $1.75 billion this year. Meanwhile, India’s machinery exports to the U.S. dropped 9.4 percent year-on-year in September to $1.4 billion, with total exports to the U.S. falling to $5.4 billion from $6.9 billion in August.

Pray. 

Train. 

Stay informed. 

Build resilient communities.

— END REPORT