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Title: August 18, 2025 - SPECIAL UPDATE

SPECIAL UPDATE

Watch the Video    https://vimeo.com/1111355353/dfeec0a7cb?share=copy

RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR

Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is prepared to freeze the current front line in the war with Russia but rejects demands that he withdraw Ukrainian forces from Donetsk and Luhansk. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly raised that condition during his Aug. 15 summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska. Zelenskyy plans to discuss the issue with Trump at the White House on Aug. 18. Afterward, Trump will meet with leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are also scheduled to attend.

(See GZB INFOCUS for more analysis.)

U.S. & INDIA

Canceled. India canceled a planned Aug. 25-29 visit by a U.S. trade delegation amid the countries’ dispute over tariffs and market access. The meeting would have been the sixth round of talks on a trade deal, considered significant after Washington said it would impose an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods in response to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. Washington is pressing for access to Indian agricultural and dairy markets but New Delhi is refusing, citing farmer protections and cultural concerns.

ISRAEL

Israeli protests. In Israel, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir condemned nationwide demonstrations demanding a comprehensive ceasefire with Hamas to secure the release of Israeli hostages. Smotrich described the protests as aiding Hamas, while Ben-Gvir said they undermine government efforts and delay hostage returns. Protesters blocked roads and burned tires, particularly in Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, the chief of staff of Israel’s military said Israeli forces would soon begin the next phase of operations to destroy Hamas Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also affirmed that military operations will continue until Hamas is defeated.

THE KOREAS

Olive branch. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung directed ministries to implement inter-Korean agreements. He pledged not to pursue reunification with North Korea by absorption and said his administration will respect the North’s system. He also called for gradual steps to restore the 2018 military pact aimed at reducing border tensions. Meanwhile, South Korea and the United States began their annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise running through Aug. 28. About half of the approximately 40 planned field exercises will be delayed until September in an effort to ease tensions with North Korea.

IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROBLEMS

Reformists speak. Iran’s Reformist Front, a group of 30 reformist parties supporting President Masoud Pezeshkian, proposed temporarily halting uranium enrichment and accepting International Atomic Energy Agency supervision in exchange for sanctions relief. The group cited risks of renewed U.N. sanctions and a worsening economic crisis. It also called for national reconciliation, free elections and ending international isolation. Proposals include amnesty for political prisoners, lifting house arrest of opposition leaders, depoliticizing the military and revising foreign policy. Separately, Pezeshkian began a two-day visit to Armenia, after which he will visit Belarus.

UPCOMING U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ

Mission accomplished. U.S.-led coalition forces will withdraw from their headquarters in Baghdad and Ain al-Asad air base in September, according to Hussein Alawi, the Iraqi prime minister’s adviser. Per an agreement between Washington and Baghdad, troops will relocate to Irbil, Iraqi Kurdistan. An Iraqi government source said U.S. military instructors will remain in the country.

RUSSIA’S BORDER PROBLEMS

Russian immigration. Russia’s federal border service said recent migration laws requiring biometric data, tracking information and a registry of controlled persons have had little effect on arrivals. In the first half of 2025, 5.48 million people entered Russia from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, only 2 percent fewer than a year earlier. About 767,000 Chinese citizens entered, 67,000 more than in the first half of 2024.

RUSSIA AI-95 SHORTAGES

Running low. Local Russian outlets reported shortages of AI-95 gasoline in several regions. Supplies have nearly vanished from Crimea and Trans-Baikal. Experts blamed supply disruptions and seasonal demand and said that if conditions persist, other regions may face shortages.

A-STAN & U-STAN

Power deals. Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed $243 million in electricity including construction of two transmission lines, expansion of the Arghandeh substation and a new substation in Nangarhar. The work, scheduled for completion within 18 months, is expected to allow Afghanistan to import up to 1,000 megawatts annually. Currently, only about 40 percent of Afghans have access to electricity.

GZB INFOCUS: ALASKA SUMMIT AAR

The media have portrayed the summit in Alaska, where U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met to discuss a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as a victory for Putin and a loss for Trump.

Personalizing geopolitics is natural but misleading. If there is any personal dimension to geopolitics, it is defined by the short-term moves leaders make to protect themselves. Whatever Trump or Putin said, there is a fundamental geopolitical logic guiding their positions. It’s important, then, to focus not on who humiliated whom but on the geopolitical reality.

The United States has little at stake in the war. Whether or not it continues is immaterial to Washington, and there is no strategic consequence if Russia conquers all of Ukraine – something it has not even come close to doing. The fate of Ukraine does not change the balance of power in Europe; the Russian military’s performance in the war makes a Russian invasion of Europe hard to imagine, and opening another war in, say, the Baltics would risk a massive change in European defense policy, which would ultimately benefit the United States. And the U.S. is, meanwhile, under no direct threat of a Russian attack.

Russia, on the other hand, has a great deal at stake in Ukraine – as does Putin, who may be worried about his own future. Russia has paid a significant price in blood and treasure but has very little to show for it. In fact, its performance in Ukraine has hurt Russia not just economically but also geopolitically.

The South Caucasus, for example, has long been within Moscow’s sphere of influence but is now moving closer toward the U.S., as evidenced by the ceasefire signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This is much more geopolitically vital to Russia than Ukraine is.

This is why the Alaska summit must be depersonalized. Ignore the allegations that Putin “tricked” Trump, and you are left with the fact that Russia is fighting a war it is unable to win and apparently unwilling to leave, while the U.S. is trying to facilitate a ceasefire it has no stake in. It’s true that Washington has provided weapons and intelligence to Ukraine, but a defeat of Ukraine does not fundamentally threaten the U.S. itself or Europe. If Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, it will not defeat NATO.

And if we concede that Putin did, in fact, “embarrass” Trump, that’s no consolation for Russian citizens whose economic conditions will likely decline if the U.S. makes good on its economic threats. Trump will be president for a little more than three more years. Can we say the same about Putin?

The problem with the media is that historically they have been obsessed with personalities, not with nations. Trump may have been embarrassed, but the U.S. is fine, geopolitically speaking. Russia, on the other hand, is bleeding, with no end in sight. It may have scored a great victory in Alaska, but it is still losing the war. Russia’s position reminds me of the U.S. position in the Vietnam War. The U.S. could not win, but it could not leave until it became too untenable to stay.

I’m not going to forecast how I think this is going to play out. But I am going to say that if Trump’s ace up his sleeve is actual, effective sanctions, coupled with the threat of EU NATO troops entering Ukraine, what’s Putin going to do?

Trump will be in office for the next 3 years — I cannot now say the same for Putin.

Pray.

Train.

Stay Informed.

Build Resilient Communities.

—END REPORT