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Title: January 12, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 12 JANUARY 2026
 
PAYBACK IS A BITCH!
 
**U.S. airstrikes hit ISIS targets in Syria, officials say** - The U.S. conducted large-scale strikes against multiple Islamic State targets across Syria on Saturday, U.S. Central Command said. The strikes targeted at least 35 locations and included more than 90 precision munitions fired and more than 20 aircraft, a U.S. official told CBS News. The aircraft included F-15Es, A-10s, AC-130Js, MQ-9s and Jordanian F-16s. Central Command, which oversees U.S. military operations in the Middle East, said the strikes were part of Operation Hawkeye, which was launched in retaliation for the ISIS terrorist ambush in Palmyra, Syria, on Dec. 13, that killed two American soldiers and one U.S. civilian interpreter.
 
"The strikes today targeted ISIS throughout Syria as part of our ongoing commitment to root out Islamic terrorism against our warfighters, prevent future attacks, and protect American and partner forces in the region," Central Command said in a post on X. "U.S. and coalition forces remain resolute in pursuing terrorists who seek to harm the United States."
 
THE U.S. & CUBA
 
Trump ultimatum to Cuba: 'Make a deal, before it is too late' or face consequences
Trump vows to halt all oil and financial support to Cuba following Maduro's capture.
 
"THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
Venezuela has long been Cuba’s largest oil supplier, though Trump has successfully secured oil shipments to the U.S. on the heels of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces.
 
"Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela," Trump added.
 
The warning comes as the Trump administration intensifies its efforts to isolate regional allies of Venezuela following Maduro’s capture.
 
Venezuela’s massive oil reserves, the largest in the world, have historically underpinned its influence across the region, particularly through subsidized shipments to allies like Cuba.
 
(**See the GZB InFocus for more details about Venezuelan oil reserves.)
 
U.S. WAR ON CARTELS
 
Expanded operations. The U.S. will start striking drug cartels on land, President Donald Trump said in a new interview with Fox News. Trump asserted that the U.S. has blocked 97 percent of drug trafficking to the U.S. by sea and will now shift its focus to land, though he did not specify when operations would begin. Trump previously suggested that the U.S. could expand military action targeting the drug trade to Mexico and Colombia.
 
IRAN PROTESTS
 
Targeting Khamenei. On the 12th day of anti-government protests in Iran, demonstrators on Thursday set fire to police vehicles, broadcast buildings, government offices and pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They chanted “Death to the dictator!” and expressed support for exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. In an address to the nation, Khamenei said the Islamic Republic would “not retreat even a millimeter from its principles” and called on Iranians to “maintain readiness and unity.”
Protests continued through the weekend with death tolls — according to Iranian sources at about 500. President Trump threatened to “hit Iran very hard” if the regime continues to kill protestors.
 
POSSIBLE IRGC-QUDS FORCE MESSAGE?
 
A U-Haul truck drove into a group of anti- Iranian regime protesters in the Westwood neighborhood of Los Angeles Sunday during a demonstration in support of the Iranian people.
 
A crackdown on demonstrations in Iran have resulted in the deaths of hundreds.
The protest in Los Angeles against the Iranian regime was held near the federal building in the neighborhood.
 
As AIR7 (KABC Los Angeles) arrived at the scene shortly before 3:30 p.m., a large group of people was seen surrounding the U-Haul. Some protesters were seen smashing windows, with tensions quickly escalating.
 
Eventually, law enforcement at the scene pulled a man from the U-Haul and appeared to take him into custody. As police walked the man away, some protesters were seen trying to punch him and hit him with flag poles.
 
Eyewitness News later learned that the man allegedly drove the U-Haul into the crowd during the planned protest. Video from the ground shows the moment he drove through, angering the crowd.
 
A sign on the side of the U-Haul said, "NO SHAH. NO REGIME. USA: DON'T REPEAT 1953. NO MULLAH."
 
It’s unclear how many injuries have been reported in connection with the U-Haul. Law enforcement has not identified the driver.
 
Los Angeles police were on scene.
 
The California Highway Patrol shut down the nearby 405 Freeway.
 
SPAIN PURGE
 
**Europol Arrests 34 Black Axe Members in Spain Over €5.9M Fraud and Organized Crime** - Europol on Friday announced the arrest of 34 individuals in Spain who are alleged to be part of an international criminal organization called Black Axe. As part of an operation conducted by the Spanish National Police, in coordination with the Bavarian State Criminal Police Office and Europol, 28 arrests were made in Seville, along with three others in Madrid, two in Málaga, and one in Barcelona. "The criminal network is known for its involvement in a wide range of criminal activities, including cyber-enabled fraud, drug trafficking, human trafficking and prostitution, kidnapping, armed robbery and fraudulent spiritual practices," Europol said in a statement.
 
SOUTH AFRICA
 
**Foreign national arrested for possession of explosives near Beitbridge border (Zimbabwe) **- A foreigner was arrested near the Beitbridge border post in Musina late on Friday night after he was found with a large quantity of explosives. A second suspect managed to escape. Police spokesperson Brigadier Hlulani Mashaba said the two men were spotted tby South African National Defence Force (SANDF) members who were on patrol.
 
NIGERIA
 
**NAF destroys Boko Haram structures, logistics facility in Borno** - The Nigerian Air Force (NAF) has pounded Abbagajiri in the Timbuktu Triangle, an identified Boko Haram and ISWAP enclave within the Sambisa Forest of Borno State, destroying terrorist structures, concealed logistics facilities, and neutralising multiple insurgents. Based on actionable, multi-source intelligence confirming active terrorist presence in the area, NAF air assets were deployed in integrated surveillance and precision strike roles to engage identified targets.
 
GZB INFOCUS:
 
Ranked: The Countries With the Most Oil Reserves
 
Key Takeaways:
 
• Just four countries control more than half of the world’s proven oil reserves.
 
• Despite the attempts at energy transition, fossil fuels still account for nearly 70% of global energy demand.
 
Oil remains one of the most strategically important resources in the global economy. It powers transportation systems, underpins industrial activity, and continues to shape geopolitics and trade flows. While renewable energy is growing, oil still plays a dominant role in meeting global energy needs.
 
This visualization ranks countries by the size of their proven oil reserves at the end of 2024. The data for this graphic comes from OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025. Figures represent proven oil reserves as of year-end 2024 and are measured in billions of barrels. The data includes conventional crude oil as well as oil sands.
 
Four Countries Dominate Global Oil Reserves:
 
Global oil reserves are highly concentrated.
 
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves (about 303 billion barrels), but U.S. sanctions have limited its ability to export crude and fully monetize this resource.
President Trump has said the U.S. would take control of Venezuela’s oil reserves (https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/venezuela-explosions-caracas-intl-hnk-01-03-26) and invite American companies to invest in rebuilding the country’s weakened oil industry following a military operation that captured President Nicolás Maduro.
Saudi Arabia follows the South American country with 267 billion barrels. Iran, Canada, and Iraq round out the top five.
 
The Role of OPEC and the Middle East:
 
Many of the world’s largest oil reserves are held by OPEC members, particularly in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates anchor the region’s dominance.
 
These countries benefit from low extraction costs and large, easily accessible reserves. As a result, Middle Eastern producers are expected to remain critical suppliers even as global demand growth slows.
 
Oil Sands and Non-OPEC Producers:
 
Canada stands out among non-OPEC countries, ranking fourth globally with 163 billion barrels of reserves. The majority of Canada’s reserves come from oil sands, which are more expensive and carbon-intensive to extract. Russia and the United States also rank among the top 10.
 
Taken together, the data highlights how unevenly oil resources are distributed and why oil-rich nations continue to have significant economic and geopolitical power.
 
VENEZUELAN OIL RESERVES
 
Key Takeaways:
 
• Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, accounting for about 17% of the global total.
 
• Despite its vast reserves, Venezuela’s oil production remains a fraction of its historical peak.
 
Venezuela sits atop the largest oil reserves on the planet, yet its role in global energy markets is far smaller than in past decades.
 
While countries like the United States and Saudi Arabia dominate daily oil production, Venezuela’s output has steadily declined over the past several decades.
 
This visualization compares proven oil reserves across major producing countries. Reserves represent the volume of oil that can be economically produced under current conditions. The data for this visualization comes from OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025 (https://www.opec.org/assets/assetdb/asb-2025.pdf).
 
Venezuela’s Unmatched Reserve Base
 
Venezuela holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest of any country and well ahead of Saudi Arabia. These reserves account for roughly 17% of the global total.
 
Most of this oil is concentrated in the Orinoco Belt, where deposits are predominantly heavy crude. While abundant, this type of oil is more expensive to produce and requires specialized infrastructure.
 
Despite its reserve dominance, Venezuela ranked just 21st in oil production in 2024, producing about 960,000 barrels per day.
 
At its peak in the 1970s, the country pumped as much as 3.5 million barrels per day, representing more than 7% of global output (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelan-oil-industry-worlds-largest-reserves-decaying-infrastructure-2026-01-03/)at the time. Production fell sharply during the 2010s and averaged roughly 1.1 million barrels per day last year, or about 1% of global production.
 
Politics, Sanctions, and Investment Challenges
 
Decades of mismanagement, underinvestment, and international sanctions have constrained Venezuela’s oil sector.
 
Although some Western firms, including U.S.-based Chevron, continue to operate in the country, their presence has diminished significantly as sanctions expanded and exports were targeted.
 
Venezuela was a founding member of OPEC, alongside Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, but its influence within the group has waned as production declined.
 
GZB Analysts are — J.G., R. D., M.B. & a special welcome to “M.M.” — a part of the Gathering Storm Intel Team.
 
—END REPORT