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Title: October 11, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 11-12 OCTOBER

GLOBAL SITREP

ISRAEL & HAMAS CEASEFIRE

Ceasefire details. Hamas chief negotiator Khalil Al Hayya confirmed that an agreement to end the war in Gaza has been reached. According to the official, the deal includes the opening of the Rafah crossing in both directions, as well as the release of all Palestinian women and children held in Israeli prisons. He also confirmed that Hamas has received “clear guarantees” from international mediators and the U.S. on a complete end to hostilities. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that his Cabinet approved the “outline” of a deal to release Israeli hostages. Under the agreement, Israeli troops have 24 hours from the time of formal approval to withdraw to agreed-upon lines. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense said Turkish troops would be ready to “carry out any task assigned to them in the Gaza Strip,” in response to a question about whether the country would contribute to a Gaza task force.

U.S. & CHINA

Uneven playing field. The Trump administration has proposed barring Chinese airlines from using Russian airspace for flights to and from the United States. The move is in response to frustrations from U.S. airlines, which have been barred from using Russian airspace since 2022 and have argued that their Chinese counterparts have an unfair advantage. The U.S. Department of Transportation said the situation has resulted in “substantial adverse competitive effects on U.S. air carriers.”

CHINA & U.S.

Tit for tat. China is introducing a special port fee on U.S.-flagged vessels, the Chinese Ministry of Transport announced In a statement, the ministry said the measure was in response to similar actions by Washington against vessels owned, manufactured or operated by Chinese companies, or flying the Chinese flag.

AZERBAIJANI AIRLINE —RUSSIA TO BLAME

Taking the blame. During an in-person meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted for the first time to Russian responsibility for the downing of an Azerbaijani commercial airliner last year. Putin said a missile from the country’s air defense system was targeting a Ukrainian drone at the time but had exploded near the jet due to “technical failures.” Relatedly, Russian media reported that Azerbaijani authorities released the executive director of the local bureau of Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik, Igor Kartavykh. Kartavykh was arrested in Baku in June following a raid on the paper’s offices over suspicions of using illegal financing.

KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakh economy. Kazakhstan’s central bank raised its base interest rate from 16.5 percent to 18 percent because of inflation concerns. Annual inflation rose to 12.9 percent in September from 12.2 percent in August, exceeding the bank’s forecast. Food prices, up 12.7 percent, continue to be the largest contributor. In September, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said inflation has become the country’s biggest problem.

TTP LEADER GETS SMOKED

Attack in Kabul. The target of an explosion in Kabul on Thursday was the leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (also known as the Pakistani Taliban), Noor Wali Mehsud, according to the Afghanistan International news outlet. The Taliban government confirmed that an explosion was heard and has blamed Pakistan for the attack. Mehsud's condition is still unknown.

RUSSAN GAS TO CHINA

Energy for China. Russian gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline are substantially exceeding contractual obligations, according to Gazprom A company representative said the pipeline is currently operating at full capacity and that Gazprom is working to expand production capabilities in Eastern Siberia.

CHINA & SPAIN

Business conference. More than 300 representatives of companies and business associations from China and Spain gathered in Madrid for an investment conference organized by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business. The two sides signed a total of nine trade and investment cooperation agreements during the event.

GZB FOLLOW UP: CHINA’S PUSH TO DOMINATE RENEWABLE ENERGY

Over the first half of 2025, renewable energy overtook coal for the first time in history as the world’s number one source of electricity. Intent on diversifying away from fossil fuels and avoiding the pollution that comes with them, China has been a leader in the global push for clean energy. Its transition has been driven by massive investment and growth in wind, solar and electric vehicle technology.

Last year, China saw an 18 percent increase in wind capacity and a 45 percent growth in solar capacity, achieving the 1.2 terawatts renewable energy capacity target set by President Xi Jinping five years ahead of schedule. According to the International Energy Agency, China’s achievements make it possible to reach the global goal of tripling renewable power capacity by 2030.

Unsurprisingly, China’s green transition has reshaped its own emissions trajectory: Despite an increase in energy consumption, the rapid deployment of renewables means that new electricity demand is increasingly met with non-fossil fuel sources.

But the transition is not yet complete. The next major challenge will be to integrate renewables into the energy grid. Many of the new wind and solar installations are located in inland regions with abundant natural resources – far from the densely populated coastal areas where demand is the highest. Without sufficient ultra-high voltage transmission infrastructure, large volumes of clean energy are wasted. The current grid system lacks the flexibility to handle the intermittent nature of renewables, and fossil fuels still dominate backup capacity.

To address these issues, China will try to invest more in modernizing its long-distance transmission lines, expanding energy storage solutions and implementing smart grid technologies. Reforms to electricity pricing and market mechanisms can also be expected. Implementing these measures will be crucial to translating China’s renewable buildout into real emissions reductions.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

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