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Title: September 22, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 22 SEPTEMBER 2025

INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON ISRAEL

Changing course. Britain, Canada, Australia and Portugal announced over the weekend that they are formally recognizing a Palestinian state. In a public address, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said a two-state solution was the “best hope for peace and security for all sides.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by saying “A Palestinian state will not be established,” adding that recognition was essentially a “huge reward to terrorism.” A U.S. State Department spokesperson called the move “performative.” At least six more countries are expected to recognize a Palestinian state later this week, in conjunction with the U.N. General Assembly meeting that begins on Tuesday in New York.

ISRAEL PROTESTS

Public outrage. Protesters held rallies across Israel over the weekend, demanding an end to the fighting in Gaza and a deal that would ensure the release of the remaining Hamas-held hostages. In the central city of Kfar Saba, demonstrators blocked roads and stormed a venue where Netanyahu’s Likud party was holding an event to mark the Jewish New Year. Relatedly, Axios reported that Netanyahu asked the United States to lobby Egypt to reduce its recent military buildup along its border with Gaza.

RUSSIA IN THE SAHEL

Russia and Africa. The Russian-appointed head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, met with the ambassadors to Moscow from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to discuss prospects for trade, economic cooperation and investment. The meeting, attended also by regional government officials and members of the Russian State Duma and Foreign Ministry, emphasized Russia’s strategic partnership with Africa. The three African countries are members of a security partnership known as the Alliance of Sahel States and have been drawing closer to Moscow in recent years.

TURKEY & U.S. AIR DEFENSE

Turkish investment. Turkey could announce a purchase of as many as 250 civilian aircraft and F-16 fighter jets during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the United States this week. Boeing and Lockheed Martin are expected to sign the deals. U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that he would host Erdogan in Washington on Sept. 25 to discuss Turkey’s “large-scale purchase” of U.S.-made aircraft and continue talks on the F-35 program. Meanwhile, Ankara announced that it will lift import duties on certain U.S. goods imposed in 2018. It will also impose new tariffs on car imports from countries that are nonmembers of the European Union or do not have trade agreements with Turkey.

IRAN & THE IAEA

Breaking ties. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The announcement came after the U.N. Security Council on Friday voted to activate U.N. sanctions that were suspended under the 2015 nuclear deal, after three European countries accused Tehran of being noncompliant with the terms of the agreement. Also over the weekend, Iran said it conducted its first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile.

NORTH KOREA

Statement from Pyongyang. Speaking at a meeting of the North Korean parliament, leader Kim Jong Un said his country has acquired secret new weapons and achieved significant results in defense research. Kim also expressed his willingness to negotiate with the United States on one condition: that Washington abandon its demand for Pyongyang’s denuclearization.

PHILIPPINES

Philippine protests. Thousands of people protested in Manila on Sunday against alleged mass corruption in flood control projects. Lawmakers and public officials are accused of siphoning off money meant to help prevent damage from mass floods. The Department of Finance estimated that the economy has lost about $2 billion since 2023 due to poor management of these initiatives.

SAUDIS & SOUTH KOREA

Meeting in Riyadh. South Korea’s defense minister, Ahn Gyu-back, held talks with Saudi Arabia’s minister of national guard in Riyadh on Sunday. They agreed to boost defense cooperation between their countries, including through personnel exchanges and joint military training.

U.S. & YEMEN

Talks with Yemen. U.S. Central Command Commander Adm. Brad Cooper met last week with the chief of staff of the Yemeni military, Lt. Gen. Sagheir Hamoud Bin Aziz. They discussed efforts to strengthen security cooperation, according to CENTCOM.

GZB INFOCUS: AMERICA’S WEALTH DISTRIBUTION

What We're Showing:

This chart illustrates the distribution of U.S. household wealth in 2025 across four generations, using data from the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025. Values exclude mortgage debt.

Key Takeaways:

• Baby Boomers hold the largest share with $83.3 trillion in assets, over half of all U.S. household wealth.

• Gen X accounts for $42.6 trillion, nearly double the combined $37.2 trillion held by the Silent Generation and Millennials/Gen Z.

• Millennials and Gen Z together hold just $17.1 trillion, making up 10.5% of total wealth despite being the largest cohort.

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—END REPORT