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Title: July 22, 2025

GZB MORNING BRIEF: EU MIGRATION & TERRORISM

Summer months in Europe traditionally bring calmer seas, which in turn bring more immigrants across the Mediterranean. Some nations are already wary. This year, for example, Greece has seen a fourfold increase in arrivals on outlying islands thanks to a newly active southern route from Libya. More than 7,000 people arrived in the first half of 2025, compared with roughly 1,750 during the same period in 2024. In response, Greek authorities warned of a “sharp increase in irregular arrivals by sea from North Africa” and, in July, the Greek parliament voted to suspend asylum processing for migrants arriving by sea from North Africa for three months.

Several other countries have seen an uptick too. Crucially, the surge is explained not just by calmer waters but also by several overlapping factors, some of which reflect long-term structural pressures affecting the Middle East and North Africa.

Salting Migrants Flows

Conflicts, Jihadist and Terror groups new and old remain a primary driver of displacement. The war in Sudan, which erupted in 2023, has forced millions from their homes. Persistent violence in the Sahel, ongoing instability in Syria and deteriorating security conditions under Taliban rule in Afghanistan also continue to push people toward Europe. Now may be a prime window of opportunity to salt the flow of asylum seekers with trained terror cel operatives — and it is likely that some of these Terror orgs are not only using smuggling routes to bring fighters to Europe, but have monetized their smuggling operations as a source of revenue.

Even regions without full-scale conflict have become major points of departure. Eastern Libya, for example, remains unstable and lightly governed, allowing smuggling networks to operate with impunity. As a result, Libya has become a key launching point for boats bound for southern Europe. Many of those arriving in Greece – particularly on the islands of Crete and Gavdos – are refugees from war-torn countries.

Severe economic decline is another major force behind the rise in migration. Tunisia is in the throes of financial crisis, with rampant inflation and soaring unemployment, which has pushed Tunisians and sub-Saharan African migrants to risk dangerous crossings to Europe. Similar economic malaise is evident in Lebanon and Turkey, where collapsing currencies and strained public services have diminished quality of life and increased outward migration.

In West Africa, a lack of opportunity – compounded by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and persistent governance challenges – has driven many young people from countries like Senegal, Mali and the Ivory Coast to undertake the perilous Atlantic journey to Spain. These economic pressures feed what experts call "mixed migration": movements that include people fleeing persecution and those seeking better economic futures.

Environmental degradation is also playing a growing role in driving migration. Across the Middle East and Africa, prolonged droughts, extreme heat and crop failures have undermined rural livelihoods and food security. In many cases, climate-related hardship pushes people to migrate internally first, toward cities, and eventually abroad. The Sahel, already volatile due to jihadist terrorism, armed conflict and weak governance, is experiencing intensified resource competition as climate change makes land and water scarcer. This convergence of crises – war, economic collapse and ecological deterioration – has created the conditions for mass displacement.

Preemptive Measures

The coming migratory pressure – and its political discontents – forced the European Union to take preemptive action. In 2024, it approved a landmark agreement called the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, the purpose of which was to strike a better balance between responsibility and solidarity, ensuring that no single country bears a disproportionate burden.

The pact also includes regulations designed to streamline asylum procedures, particularly at the bloc's external borders, to accelerate the return of those deemed ineligible for protection, and to expand cooperation with third countries to manage migration flows more effectively. A key feature is a new solidarity mechanism that allows member states to contribute either by hosting relocated asylum seekers or by offering financial and operational support instead.

However, the agreement isn’t going into effect until 2026, so the member states are effectively hedging their bets, prompting a mix of crisis response policies to address migration flows. The way they are proceeding now, however, will likely shape how the pact is implemented next year.

Conclusions

The most significant challenge is solidarity itself. While the pact obliges member states to support those under pressure — either by accepting asylum seekers or contributing financially — many countries still rely on unilateral or bilateral fixes. Hungary and Poland opposed the pact outright, and by late 2024, more than half of EU members had yet to submit implementation plans. Without full buy-in, the pact could be undermined before it even takes effect.

Ultimately, current national measures may be more a reflection of a system in transition than outright defiance. But the longer these ad hoc approaches continue, the harder it will be for the EU to deliver on its promise of a collective migration policy — and the more terrorists will be pushed through the pipeline towards large European cities, where there are plenty of mosques and safe houses that will take them in — and these terror cells could be given the green light to activate in the summer of 2026.

Again, my best guess is that July 4th will be the day sit pops off here in the U.S., so in May and June of 2026 I will be looking at embassies and EU cities as indicators. But we still have to get through September, and the 11th is probably a day we should all be preparing for.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT