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Title: December 17, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 17 DECEMBER 2025
AFGHANISTAN
 
**Assessment Afghanistan 2025** - The ‘political landscape’ of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is in increasing turmoil. A deep divide has emerged between the Kandahari group led by Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and the Haqqani Group led by Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. The Haqqani Group also includes Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar and Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai. These three – Haqqani, Baradar and Stanikzai – are among the most prominent Taliban leaders after Akhundzada. Indeed, at the time of writing two of these three top leaders of the Haqqani Group – Sirajuddin Haqqani and Abbas Stanikzai – have left the country and are currently residing in United Arab Emirate (UAE). There were rumours of disaffection around Baradar’s absence as well, since it overlapped with Haqqani and Stanikzai’s, but he has returned to Kabul.
 
AFGHANS IN THE U.S. SINCE 2021
 
**Gabbard: 2,000 Afghan refugees in U.S. have ties to terrorism** - An estimated 2,000 Afghan nationals admitted to the United States following the deadly 2021 pullout of American forces from Afghanistan have ties to terrorism, according to the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard made the astonishing revelation during an interview on Fox News Friday morning, following a tense House Homeland Security Committee hearing Thursday, when Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem highlighted national security risks to the homeland. The Center Square previously reported that the U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General released a report in January 2022 that admitted thousands of Afghan evacuees who entered the U.S. following the American military evacuation in August 2021 were not properly vetted. “[The DoD] found that Afghan evacuees were not vetted by the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC) using all DoD data prior to arriving in CONUS,” the report said. The report also noted, during an “analytic review, NGIC personnel identified Afghans with derogatory information in the DoD ABIS database who were believed to be in the United States.”
 
EU TELLING CITIZENS TO PREPARE FOR WAR WITH RUSSIA
 
**After a Generation of Peace, Europe Tells Its People to Prepare for War** - European countries are increasingly warning their citizens that they must prepare for potential conflict with Russia. The urge for a psychological shift comes amid the latest peace push in Ukraine, which some European leaders warn may result in an agreement that emboldens Moscow to pursue future aggression. Peace in Ukraine may also free up Russia to target other parts of Europe. This also comes amid the apparent shift in U.S. policy away from Europe. And, Europe is increasingly recognizing Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against the continent. European countries are responding by increasing military spending, training and recruitment.
 
EU & UKRAINE
 
European commitment. The leaders of 14 European nations released a statement outlining the security guarantees that they, in addition to the United States, are willing to offer Ukraine. They include assistance in building up Ukraine’s armed forces (which would total 800,000 troops in peacetime); forming a European-led “multinational force for Ukraine” consisting of contributions from willing states and support from the U.S.; a U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism; a legally binding commitment to restore peace in case of a future armed attack; investment in Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction; and strong support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
 
RUSSIA SUES CENTRAL BANK IN BELGIUM
 
Assets dispute. Russia’s central bank is suing the Brussels-based clearing house that holds most of the Russian frozen assets in Europe, demanding $230 billion in compensation and warning of consequences for using the funds. EU leaders will decide this week whether to use about $247 billion in frozen assets to provide Ukraine with a loan to cover its defense and economic needs. Russia remains the legal owner of the assets, despite European governments’ seizure of them following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
 
RUSSIA & ARMENIA:
 
ZANGEZUR CORRIDOR
 
Russian involvement. Russia has expressed its readiness for talks with Armenia on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, according to Mikhail Kalugin an official at Russia’s Foreign Ministry. The U.S.-backed project will connect Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. Kalugin said Moscow was ready to discuss “both the initiative’s parameters and possible Russian participation,” noting that Russia’s South Caucasus Railway holds a concession to manage Armenia’s rail network and that the country uses Russian gauge rail tracks.
 
Iranian opposition. Relatedly, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader said following a meeting with Armenia’s ambassador to Tehran that the Islamic Republic opposes the TRIPP project. The official stressed that the initiative could lead to “the emergence of NATO and the U.S. on Iran’s northern borders.”
 
IRAN & BELARUS
 
Building ties. The foreign ministers of Iran and Belarus signed a number of agreements following talks in Minsk. The documents included a declaration on countering sanctions and mitigating their impact. The Iranian minister also held talks with the head of Belarus’ Security Council on strengthening security cooperation, as well as international developments.
 
LITHUANIA
 
Boosting defense. Lithuania plans to build a new military training ground near the Suwalki Gap, a narrow stretch of land linking Lithuania and Poland and separating Belarus from Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad. The facility will be used for brigade exercises and personnel training and help monitor and defend the strategic corridor.
 
Why It Matters:
 
The Suwałki Gap (see map) is a strategically vital, narrow land corridor (about 65-100 km) between Poland and Lithuania, separating Russia's Kaliningrad exclave from Belarus, Russia's ally, making it NATO's most vulnerable point in Europe.
Control of this area by Russia would cut off the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) from their NATO allies by land, creating a direct link between Kaliningrad and Belarus and isolating the Baltics, hence it's often called NATO's "Achilles' heel" or "soft underbelly".
 
VENEZUELA STATE OWNED OIL & NATURAL GAS COMPANY LIKELY HACKED BY U.S.
 
**CYBER ATTACK SHUTS DOWN VENEZUELAN OIL EXPORTS:
 
** Venezuela's state-owned oil and natural gas company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) this week downplayed the impact of what appeared to be a major cyberattack, which it blamed on the US government, without providing evidence. In a statementt, PDVSA, one of Latin Amerca's largest oil producers, called the attack a "despicable action orchestrated by foreign interests in complicity with stateless actors." It extolled the expertise of PDVSA's inhouse talent for ensuring the attack caused no operational disruptions and restricting it to the company's administrative systems.
 
U.S. & SOUTH KOREA
 
Korean affairs. The United States and South Korea have launched a new consultative body on North Korea policy. The group held its first meeting in Seoul on Tuesday, in which both countries reaffirmed their commitment to North Korea’s complete denuclearization and called on Pyongyang to return to dialogue.
 
MARITIME THREAT RISK ASSESSMENT: THREAT LEVEL ESCALATING
 
Maritime risk isn’t only about where you sail — it’s increasingly about what spills over into commercial operations when states and non-state actors push boundaries.
Dryad Global’s Maritime Intelligence Brief (MIB) is tracking and reporting a clear escalation pattern affecting commercial shipping and energy infrastructure, alongside emerging navigation hazards that raise the baseline risk for operators, charterers, and insurers as we close out 2025 and head into 2026, the threat risk is likely to continue to escalate.
 
Details:
 
Regions
 
Recent weeks have witnessed a sharp intensification in asymmetric maritime warfare between Ukraine and Russia, primarily targeting commercial shipping and energy infrastructure to disrupt economic lifelines supporting the ongoing conflict. On 10 December 2025, Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) Sea Baby naval drones struck the tanker M/T DASHAN (variously reported under Gambian or Comoros Islands flag, IMO 9299666), a sanctioned vessel part of Russia's shadow fleet used to evade Western oil export restric-tions. The attack, occurring approximately 85 mm north of Sinop, Turkey, inflicted critical damage to the stern, disabling the ship as it transited toward Novorossiysk with transponders off. This marked the third such strike on shadow fleet tankers in recent weeks, underscoring Ukraine's campaign to erode Russian petroleum.
 
In a significant escalation beyond the Black Sea, Ukrainian long-range drones targeted Russia's FILANOVSKY oil platform in the Caspian Sea on 11 December 2025 recording at least four hits that halted production from over 20 wells at this Lukoil-operated facility. It is one of Russia's largest offshore fields established after the Soviet era, with daily output around 120,000 barrels. Sources indicate that follow-up strikes on 12 December 2025 and 15 December 2025, impacted the nearby Korchagin platform, damaging critical equipment and suspending operations. This marks Ukraine's first documented intrusion into Caspian energy assets, over 700 km from Ukrainian borders, demonstrating an expanded drone reach aimed at broader Russian energy disruption. Amid heightened risks to navigation, Romanian naval forces on 3 December 2025, identified and neutralized a drifting Sea Baby-type unmanned surface vessel (USV) approximately 36 nm carteast of Constanta.
 
Romanian authorities confirmed the vessel was of Ukrainian origin but did not explicitly attribute intent or origin, although the incident reflects the growing presence of stray or expended drones posing collateral threats in neutral waters.
 
Russian forces appear to have retaliated directly against Ukrainian export routes. On 13 December 2025, a Russian UAV struck the Tuvalu-flagged M/T VIVA (IMO 9156539), a Turkish-owned tanker loaded with sunflower oil en route from Odesa to Egypt via the grain corridor, hitting the accommodation block and possibly the bow area approximately 19 m southeast of Odesa; the 11 Turkish crew remained unharmed. Separately, on 12 December 2025, a Geran-2 (Shahed-variant) drone impacted the Panama-flagged M/V CENK T (IMO 7528635) at berth in Chornomorsk Port during a broader raid, igniting a large fire aboard the Turkish-owned Ro-Ro vessel carrying food supplies, with two additional Turkish vessels damaged in the assault.
 
These recent incidents in the Black Sea and Caspian regions demonstrate a clear tit-for-tat dynamic in the ongoing conflict.
 
Ukrainian forces are increasingly constraining Russia's sanctioned oil trade through targeted strikes on shadow fleet tankers and, in a notable escalation, extending operations to remote energy infrastructure such as offshore platforms. lin response, Russian forces have continued to strike Ukrainian port facilities and grain export vessels, with collateral effects increasingly impacting neu-tral-flagged shipping, particularly Turkish-owned or operated vessels. Heightened drone and missile activity, combined with risks from drifting unmanned surface vessels, has raised serious concerns among regional states, including Turkey and Romania, regarding freedom of navigation, with likely upward pressure on war risk insurance premiums and disruptions to regional trade flows.
 
2026 Forecast:
 
Looking ahead through mid-February 2026, maritime traffic in the Black Sea is expected to encounter sustained high risks and reduced overall volumes. Vessels are likely to avoid central and eastern zones, favoring safer routes along NATO-adjacent littorals.
Ukraine is anticipated to maintain pressure on Russian oil exports via continued USV and UAV operations against shadow fleet assets and port infrastructure, amplified by ongoing EU sanctions desig-nations.
 
Russia, in turn, is expected to persist with attacks on Ukrainian export logistics, further elevating collateral risks for third-party shipping. While grain exports through the western corridor should continue, volumes are projected to remain moderate. Absent meaningful diplomatic progress, sporadic incidents, including drifting ordnance, will continue to undermine confidence in safe passage, adversely affecting commodity flows and global supply chains.
 
Pray.
 
Train harder than the terrorists training to KILL YOU.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be prepared, NOT panicked.
 
Build resilient communities.
 
—END REPORT