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Title: October 2, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 2 OCTOBER 2025

GAZA PEACE DEAL

Push for peace. The United States will give Hamas three to four days to respond to its plan to end the fighting in Gaza, President Donald Trump told reporters If Hamas rejects the deal, he said, Israel will “do what it must.” As for Hamas, according to a senior representative who spoke with the BBC but the group will most likely reject the plan. The source said Hamas is unlikely to agree to disarm and surrender its weapons, key components of the proposal.

QATAR AS MEDIATOR

Others weigh in. Meanwhile, the prime minister of Qatar, which is acting as a mediator between the two sides, said the proposal is in its early stages and details still need to be worked out – including Israel’s withdrawal from the strip, the conditions for which require “clarification and discussion.” He also said the plan’s aim to create a postwar government in Gaza will be discussed with Washington but not with Israel. Other countries are also sharing their thoughts on the plan: The foreign ministers of France and Turkey reportedly discussed a potential ceasefire in Gaza during a call on Tuesday.

ISRAEL & HAMAS

Surrounded. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Wednesday that the military was close to fully encircling Gaza City and that residents fleeing the area would be forced to pass through Israeli checkpoints. Those who choose to stay will be treated as “terrorists and supporters of terror.”

FRANCE

French President Emmanuel Macron told the European Union to apply tariffs on several industries to protect the European businesses. Ahead of an EU leaders’ meeting in Copenhagen, he said Europe lags behind China and the U.S. in protecting domestic industries and called for measures beyond the tariffs already imposed on Chinese electric vehicles. Relatedly, to protect Europe’s steel sector from subsidized Chinese supplies, the European Union reportedly plans to cut steel import quotas by nearly 50 percent and impose a 50 percent tariff on imports that exceed those limits. It’s also weighing protections for the aluminum sector and possible export duties on scrap metal.

UZBEKISTAN & PAKISTAN

Uzbek partners. The parliamentary speakers from Uzbekistan and Pakistan held talks in Islamabad focused on bilateral relations and strengthening their countries' strategic partnership. The Pakistani official reaffirmed his country’s support for the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway and Uzbek manufacturers’ use of Pakistani ports. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan and the United States have agreed to implement energy projects worth a total of $3 billion-$4 billion, the Uzbek energy minister said. They include an agreement with U.S. firm Air Products to expedite development of natural gas, coal and fuel projects.

RUSSIAN GAS SHORTAGES

Russian gasoline. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has proposed new measures to increase Russia’s gasoline supplies amid continued shortages in some regions of the country. He suggested temporarily permitting the use of monomethylaniline, an octane-boosting additive banned since 2016, to boost production. Novak also proposed instructing the Ministry of Finance to create incentives for the use of ethyl alcohol in gasoline production by abolishing the excise tax on ethyl alcohol. He also suggested eliminating import duties on gasoline from China, South Korea and Singapore.

U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

Deadlocked. The U.S. federal government has officially shut down after Congress failed to pass a budget for the next fiscal year. It’s the first shutdown since 2019, though partial suspensions of government operations have happened in recent years. Hundreds of thousands of government workers are being furloughed, while critical services (health care providers, border guards, military personnel, transportation workers and others) continue to work without guarantees of timely payment.

TALIBAN CUTS INTERNET & MOBILE SERVICE

Service disruption. The Taliban have cut internet and mobile phone data services across Afghanistan, diplomatic and industry sources said on Tuesday. Residents and monitoring services have reported disruptions to internet connections, flights and financial services. On Wednesday, however, Taliban officials denied imposing restrictions, saying the disruption was a result of old fiber-optic cables in need of repair.

U.S. RETAKING OF BAGRAM AIR BASE HIGHLY LIKELY

Afghan uncertainty. Employees of budgetary institutions in Kabul, Afghanistan, have been told not to return to work as of Oct. 4, the head of Russia’s Center for the Study of Contemporary Afghanistan, Andrey Serenko, reported According to his sources, workers believe the order is due to expectations that the U.S. could soon storm the Bagram air base, which could lead to the fall of the capital.

U.S. & AFRICA

Jobs on the line. The U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act expired on Tuesday. The 25-year-old agreement gave African countries preferential access to U.S. markets. Despite Trump administration officials indicating that the president supported a one-year renewal, no efforts have been made to extend the legislation. Hundreds of thousands of jobs across Africa are now reportedly at risk due to its expiration.

THE U.S. & AZERBAIJAN

Strengthening ties. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov held talks with a senior adviser in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs and the U.S. charge d’affaires in Baku. They discussed bilateral relations and the establishment of a joint working group on creating a strategic partnership. They also discussed the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including the peace deal reached in Washington in August.

VIET NAM & THE EU

EU outreach. The European Union and Vietnam have agreed to set up a special task force to address barriers to trade. They pledged to maintain dialogue on the matter and encourage EU investment in areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, digital transformation and renewable energy.

MOLDOVA & THE EU

EU expansion. Moldova could join the European Union within three years, Romanian President Nicusor Dan said following the country’s election of a pro-EU party. On the issue of Transnistria, he suggested the region could be given autonomous status within Moldova, similar to Gagauzia, and then join the accession process.

RUSSIA & INDIA

Drills. India and Russia began on Wednesday joint ground forces exercises in the western Indian state of Rajasthan. Approximately 250 Russian military personnel will participate in the drills, which are held every two years.

GZB INFOCUS: The World’s Biggest Countries by Total Area

Key Takeaways:

• Russia is the world’s biggest country by a huge margin, stretching across Europe and Asia and nearly matching the entire continent of South America

• Canada is the largest country in the Western Hemisphere, covering nearly 10 million km², making it second only to Russia globally

• Australia stands out as the biggest country in Oceania with over 7.6 million km²

The world’s countries vary massively in size, from continental giants to tiny island nations.

In this visualization, we rank every country by its total area, which is calculated as land area plus water bodies (e.g. lakes, reservoirs, and rivers).

The World’s Giants

The world’s biggest countries include Russia, Canada, China, and the U.S., which collectively account for nearly 30% of the world’s total landmass.

Russia is by far the largest, spanning 11 time zones and stretching across Europe and Asia. Over 65% of the country’s land, however, is classified as permafrost zones.

Canada shares similar characteristics, with vast northern territories covered by tundra, boreal forest, and Arctic climate. According to Statistics Canada, 66% of Canadians live within 62 miles (100 kilometers) of the U.S. border.

The World’s Smallest Countries

At the other end of the spectrum are tiny nations like Monaco and Gibraltar, which have total areas in the single digits.

At just 0.8 mi² (2.1 km²), Monaco is the second-smallest sovereign state in the world (after Vatican City). Despite its tiny size, nearly 39,000 people live within its borders, making it one of the most densely populated areas.

Gibraltar, technically a British Overseas Territory, covers slightly more ground at 2.6 mi² (6.8 km²). Located at the southern tip of Spain, it acts as a maritime chokepoint connecting the Atlantic and Mediterranean oceans.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT