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Title: February 27, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 27 FEBRUARY 2026
 
RAMADAN
 
**Muslim clerics: ‘Ramadan is the month of jihad, victories and martyrdom’**-
 
The month of Ramadan – which this year started on February 18 – is a time of piety of fasting, but it is also associated in Islam with jihad, conquest and martyrdom.
According to Muslim tradition, during Ramadan Allah grants the Muslims glorious victories, as exemplified in history by the Battle of Badr (624 CE), the conquest of Mecca (630), the conquest of Andalusia (711), the battle of Ein Jalut (1260), and the “War of Ramadan” fought by Egypt against Israel in 1973 (also known as the Yom Kippur War).
The establishment in some Muslim countries promotes the perception of Ramadan as the month of jihad and victory, and inculcates the belief that great Muslim victories like those listed above are attainable every year during this month.
 
This message is conveyed in sermons delivered by establishment clerics in the Arab world, in the government-controlled media and press, and in the schools systems of some Muslim countries. This perception is also espoused by jihadi and terrorist organizations, which leverage the religious and spiritual atmosphere of Ramadan, and the legacy of Ramadan battles and victories in Islamic history, to intensify the incitement to terrorism.
 
They emphasize that the commandment to wage jihad assumes special significance during this month, due to the heightened readiness for martyrdom, and stress that attacks during Ramadan have a “special flavor and character,” and even earn their perpetrators a greater divine reward.
 
IRAN REFUSES U.S. TERMS
 
Tehran's conditions. Iran’s proposal to the United States during recent talks in Geneva rejected the elimination of uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, dismantling of nuclear facilities and transferring uranium stockpiles outside the country, a senior Iranian official confirmed to Al Jazeera. According to the official, Iran’s plan focuses on reducing uranium stockpiles to low-enrichment levels and achieving “common interests, especially in the economic dimension.
 
SWEDEN & RUSSIA
 
Electronic countermeasures activated after Swedish Navy detected drone launched from Russian vessel in Öresund Strait
The Swedish Armed Forces jammed a suspected Russian drone Feb. 25 as it approached a French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier while docked in Malmö during major NATO according to reports.
 
The Charles de Gaulle warship, the flagship of the French Navy, was visiting the southern Swedish port as part of the mission LA FAYETTE 26.
 
The drills brought NATO naval forces into the Baltic Sea region at a time of rising tensions with Moscow.
 
The drone security breach unfolded when the carrier was in port, underscoring mounting concerns over Russian-linked drone activity near critical Western military assets, according to SVT.
 
The Swedish broadcaster reported that the drone was launched from a nearby Russian vessel and moved toward the carrier before being detected by Swedish forces.
A ship from the Swedish Navy found the suspected drone during ongoing sea patrols in the Öresund Strait.
 
In response, Swedish operatives activated electronic countermeasures, disrupting the aircraft’s control systems.
 
"A ship from the Swedish Navy observed a suspected drone during ongoing sea patrols in the Öresund," the Swedish Armed Forces said in a statement, SVT reported.
As yet, it remains unclear whether the drone returned to the Russian vessel or fell into the sea after being jammed.
 
Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson told SVT Thursday that the drone came "probably from Russia, as there was a Russian military vessel in the immediate vicinity at the time of the facts," according to Le Monde.
 
"A drone was jammed yesterday by a Swedish system at about seven nautical miles from the Charles de Gaulle. The Swedish system worked perfectly and this did not disrupt operations on board," French General Staff spokesman Colonel Guillaume Vernet also said.
 
**NOTE: This incident came just hours after Poland sent fighter jets overnight in response to another wave of Russian strikes over Ukraine heightening tensions between Moscow and NATO, according to reports.
 
It also follows warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin who said that his "adversaries know how things could end" if they resort to using a "nuclear" response.
 
PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN
 
Pakistan on Friday launched airstrikes on neighboring Afghanistan in response to what Islamabad called an “unprovoked” attack by Afghan Taliban forces across the border. According to Pakistani officials, 133 Afghan Taliban fighters were killed and more than 200 were wounded. The strikes also destroyed the headquarters of two brigades in Kabul, a corps headquarters and an ammunition depot in Kandahar. On Wednesday, the Taliban announced a massive strike against Pakistani military positions along their shared border (known as the Durand Line). The Afghan Ministry of National Defense said 55 Pakistani soldiers were killed in the attack and two bases and 19 military outposts were either captured or destroyed. The strike was in response to Pakistani airstrikes on Feb. 21 that resulted in civilian deaths.
 
Pakistan’s defense minister declared an "open war" with Afghanistan on Friday.
Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif said in a post on X that Pakistan had hoped the Taliban would bring stability after NATO’s withdrawal, but instead accused the group of turning Afghanistan "into a colony of India" and "exporting terrorism."
"Our patience has now run out. Now it is open war between us," he said.
 
The clashes came after the Taliban said it launched retaliatory strikes on Pakistani military positions, while Islamabad said it was responding to unprovoked fire in the area.
 
Reuters reported that both forces clashed for more than two hours along their roughly 2,600-kilometer (1,615-mile) border, threatening a ceasefire that had been agreed to in 2025 after fighting.
 
Thursday's flare-up came after Pakistani forces carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan earlier this week, with Taliban officials saying the strikes killed at least 18 people, Reuters reported Feb. 24.
 
Pakistan said it targeted militant hideouts and rejected claims that civilians were targeted.
 
The Taliban described an "extensive" military operation against Pakistani army positions in response to the strikes.
 
"In response to repeated provocations, extensive preemptive operations have been launched against Pakistani military positions along the Durand Line," Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid wrote on X.
 
SYRIA
 
U.S. vs. Chinese tech. The U.S. is pressuring Syria to abandon Chinese technology in the telecommunications sector. According to a Reuters report U.S. State Department officials warned Syria’s minister of communications during an undisclosed meeting in San Francisco that the use of Chinese tech threatened U.S. national security interests and urged Damascus to use American technology or technology from allied countries instead. According to Reuters, a significant part of the country’s telecommunications infrastructure already depends on solutions from China’s Huawei.
 
RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR
 
Russia Launches Massive Overnight Strikes on Ukraine, Hitting Cities and Energy Infrastructure **- Russia launched a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine, injuring at least 28 people and striking multiple regions, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Odesa, Ukrainian authorities reported. The assault involved 420 drones and 39 missiles, targeting energy, residential, and railway infrastructure, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting most but not all. Damage included fires, destroyed apartments, and power outages affecting 32,000 households in Odesa Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the strikes as attacks on civilians and critical infrastructure. The assault coincides with stalled peace talks in Geneva and follows the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
 
Ukraine Expands Use of Domestic Flamingo Missiles for Deep Strikes on Russian Targets **- Ukraine has increasingly deployed domestically produced Flamingo cruise missiles since November 2025, recently striking a key Russian missile factory in Votkinsk, about 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine. The FP-5 Flamingo, touted by President Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukraine's "most successful missile," has a reported range of 3,000 kilometers and a warhead exceeding 1,100 kilograms, giving it a far greater destructive potential than long-range drones. Analysts note that Flamingos complement Ukraine’s deep-strike arsenal, enabling attacks on high-value Russian targets protected by air defenses. Production capacity remains a key factor in the missile’s future use. Analysts suggest that Flamingos could significantly enhance Kyiv’s ability to degrade Russian military capabilities from a distance while offsetting Ukraine’s disadvantage in conventional battlefield strength.
 
ZAPORIZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
 
Limited deal. Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a ceasefire around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The deal is meant to allow repair teams to make necessary changes to the plant. Demining activities in the area are ongoing to allow secure access for the teams.
 
U.K. & FRENCH BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE?
 
Peacekeeping prep. British and French paratroopers are conducting joint exercises as preparation for a possible deployment to Ukraine. The drills saw more than 600 troops from the British army’s 16th Air Assault Brigade training alongside counterparts from the French 11th Parachute Brigade. They began on Feb. 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
 
NORTH KOREA
 
**North Korea’s Kim promises more nuclear weapons as Congress closes with military parade** -
 
North ‌Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he would focus on expanding ⁠his country’s nuclear arsenal and that prospects ⁠for improving relations with the U.S. rested entirely on Washington’s attitude, state media KCNA reported on Thursday. North Korea’s week-long Ninth Congress of the ⁠ruling Workers’ Party wrapped with a military parade in the capital Pyongyang on Wednesday, KCNA reported. The Asian nation’s “international status has risen extraordinarily” as it laid out major policy goals for the next five years, Kim said.
 
U.S., JAPAN & PHILIPPINES JOINT DRILLS
 
Expanded drills. The Philippines, Japan and the United States held naval exercises this week near the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan. The drills, aimed at enhancing interoperability between the countries’ armed forces, were expanded for the first time beyond the South China Sea. A Philippine naval official noted during a press conference the “illegal presence” of two Chinese navy ships on separate days of the exercises.
 
GZB INFOCUS: SPACE
 
Most people do not think about space very often. They use GPS to find their way. They check the weather on their phones. They transfer money, watch the news and communicate instantly across continents. All of this works so smoothly that it feels automatic. But we rarely consider that almost none of it would function without satellites orbiting above the Earth.
 
Modern life now depends on space in ways few societies have ever depended on any single environment before. Banking systems, transportation networks, military coordination, global communications and disaster response all rest on systems that operate far beyond national borders and outside traditional political control. This quiet dependence is why space has become one of the most important arenas of global competition in the 21st century.
 
The emergence of space as a central arena of geopolitical competition represents one of the most consequential shifts in global strategy since the advent of nuclear weapons and intercontinental aviation. As in previous eras of technological transformation, this shift is defined not by individual inventions or isolated programs but by the gradual reorganization of power around a new strategic environment. Space is becoming not merely an extension of terrestrial politics but a foundational layer upon which economic, military and political systems increasingly depend.
 
Throughout history, major changes in the structure of power have followed changes in how societies move, communicate and organize production. The control of rivers, seas, railways, airspace and digital networks has repeatedly reshaped global hierarchies. Space now joins this sequence. It is becoming the medium through which modern civilization operates and, therefore, the terrain on which future competition will be decided. It is the strategic future.
 
From a geopolitical perspective, this mirrors classical balance-of-power logic. States survive not by eliminating risk but by building systems capable of absorbing shocks without losing coherence. It also means that successful nations will be able to exploit a competition continuum rather than simply seeing the world as one of peace and war. Further, nations that wish to succeed will need to think in terms of not only geopolitics but also astropolitics and, more importantly, the synthesis of the two.
 
Space Is Becoming the World’s Infrastructure
 
Throughout history, power has followed infrastructure. Nations that controlled rivers, seas, railways, air routes and digital networks shaped how commerce, security and politics worked. They did not dominate because they owned every asset. They dominated because they managed the systems everyone else relied on.
 
Space is now joining this pattern. Satellites form an invisible scaffolding around modern civilization. When they function well, societies thrive. When they fail, disruptions cascade quickly across economies and governments. This makes space less like a traditional battlefield and more like a global highway system. Control does not mean planting flags. It means keeping traffic flowing for yourself while making it difficult for rivals to interfere.
 
Why Technology Alone Is Not Enough
 
Much public discussion of space focuses on breakthroughs: new rockets, new satellites, new weapons, new commercial ventures. These innovations matter, but history suggests they are not decisive on their own. Imperial Spain had the world’s most powerful navy in its time. Britain dominated the seas for more than a century. The Soviet Union matched the United States in many areas of technology.
 
All eventually declined. They did not fall because they lacked innovation but because their political and economic systems could not adapt fast enough to changing conditions.
 
Space competition follows the same logic. Any technological advantage will be temporary. Rivals will copy it. Commercial firms will disrupt it. Politics will redirect it. Crises will test it. The deeper question is not who builds the best system first. It is who can keep improving when conditions change.
 
Competitive Endurance: Staying Power in Space
 
This is where the idea of “competitive endurance” becomes important. Originally developed within the U.S. Space Force, the concept focuses on resilience rather than dominance. It emphasizes building systems that can absorb shocks, recover from losses and evolve.
 
In practical terms, this means:
 
• Using diverse and redundant satellites
 
• Avoiding single points of failure
 
• Training personnel for continuous learning
 
• Integrating military and commercial capabilities
 
• Planning for disruption, not perfection
 
Instead of seeking permanent superiority, competitive endurance aims to deny rivals the ability to achieve decisive advantage. Power becomes something maintained daily, not something won once.
 
The Geography of Space Still Matters
 
Although space seems limitless, it is governed by strict physical rules. Orbits are predictable. Movement requires fuel and planning. Collisions create dangerous debris. Repairs and replacements take time. These constraints create strategic “terrain,” even without land.
 
Just as sea lanes and mountain passes once shaped history, orbital pathways now influence how power operates. Above Earth, attention is expanding into cislunar space – the region between Earth and the moon. Over time, this area may host navigation routes, fuel depots and logistical hubs that support deeper space activity. Early positioning in these regions will influence access and standards for decades. Once such systems are established, they become difficult to displace.
 
Space Power Is a System, Not a Weapon
 
No single satellite, rocket or sensor produces space power. Power emerges from how multiple elements work together:
 
• Surveillance enables awareness.
 
• Communications enable coordination.
 
• Logistics enable persistence.
 
• Security enables commerce.
 
• Deterrence stabilizes competition.
 
When these functions align, influence becomes embedded in daily operations. This resembles how past empires combined trade, finance, administration and military force into integrated systems. No single component was decisive. Coordination was.
In today’s environment, this coordination increasingly involves governments, private firms, allies, insurers and investors. Influence flows through networks rather than hierarchies.
 
The Economic Dimension
 
Space is also becoming an economic arena. Navigation services, remote sensing, communications networks and emerging manufacturing projects are creating new dependencies. States that shape standards, financing and regulation gain indirect influence. They affect which technologies spread and which fail.
 
Historically, dominant powers organized new economic spaces before others understood their importance. The Dutch did it with global trade. Britain did it with shipping. The United States did it with finance and technology.
Space represents the next such frontier.
 
Learning Capacity and Human Capital
 
Institutions tend to prepare for familiar problems. When environments change, adaptation is slow.
 
Space competition evolves rapidly. Commercial actors innovate. Rivals test unconventional tactics. Legal frameworks lag behind reality. In this environment, learning capacity becomes a strategic asset. Scenario planning, simulations and long-term analysis help institutions recognize emerging risks before they become crises. They do not eliminate uncertainty, but they help manage it.
 
Historically, successful powers invested heavily in such intellectual infrastructure. Space competition will reward those who do so again.
 
Advanced technology is useless without skilled people. Space operations demand long training cycles, interdisciplinary expertise and high tolerance for complexity. Errors are costly, and decisions are often irreversible.
 
Professional cultures that combine technical competence with strategic judgment become long-term advantages. They preserve institutional memory across political cycles and technological transitions. In this sense, human capital functions as invisible infrastructure. It limits what systems can achieve.
 
A Competition Measured in Decades
 
Space power develops slowly. Infrastructure takes years to build. Standards take decades to settle. Networks become entrenched over generations. Maritime empires, industrial dominance and digital supremacy all unfolded gradually. Space will follow the same pattern.
 
Early leaders gain cumulative advantages. Latecomers face rising barriers. This does not guarantee permanent dominance. Systems can decay, institutions can stagnate and political cohesion can fracture. But it means early choices matter disproportionately.
 
Endurance Over Spectacle
 
Space is becoming the structural foundation of modern power. It integrates military, economic and political functions into a single environment that shapes how societies operate. Dominance in this domain will depend less on dramatic achievements than on sustained organizational capacity. Resilience, learning, economic integration and institutional coherence will matter more than isolated breakthroughs.
 
Great powers succeed when they align geography, technology and institutions into coherent systems. They fail when these elements drift apart. Space is now where that alignment will be tested.
 
The long-term question is not whether space will matter. It already does. The question is which nations can sustain coherence across decades of technological change, political uncertainty and economic competition. That capacity for endurance will determine the future balance of power.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 

—END REPORT