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Title: February 26, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 26 FEBRUARY 2026
 
IRAN
 
President Trump has drawn the line. Now the clock is running. GZB was off in my forecast of the U.S. bombing Iran by one week. Some analysts think that it won’t happen because of Ramadan. However diplomatic, that doesn’t fit the deadline — and Ramadan isn’t over until the end of March.
 
After publicly giving Iran roughly 10 days to 15 days to reach a nuclear agreement, Trump used his State of the Union address to make clear the deadline is backed by force.
 
"I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror … to have a nuclear weapon," he told lawmakers Tuesday night.
 
The president first outlined the short timeline Feb. 19, saying the world would know within "probably 10 days" whether Tehran was prepared to strike what he called a meaningful deal.
 
"I would think that would be enough time — 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum," Trump said, warning that absent an agreement, "it’s going to be unfortunate for them."
 
On Tuesday, he reinforced the pressure from the House chamber, telling Congress negotiations are underway, but Iran has not met his core condition.
 
"We are in negotiations with them," Trump said. "They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon.'"
 
He also pointed back to the 2025 U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, describing Operation Midnight Hammer as having "obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons program."
After that operation, he said, Tehran was warned "to make no future attempts to rebuild its weapons program," adding that Iran is now "starting it all over again."
 
(GZB has previously covered the restart of Iran’s nuclear program.)
 
With the State of the Union complete and the president’s timeline already in motion, the coming days are likely to determine whether the administration secures a nuclear concession — or shifts toward a more confrontational path in the Middle East.
 
The diplomatic ultimatum is underscored by the largest assembly of U.S. naval power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
 
The world’s most advanced aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived at Souda Bay, Crete, Monday. The Ford joined USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been conducting 24-hour flight operations in the Arabian Sea since late January.
 
Between the two strike groups, the U.S. now commands a fleet of 14 major warships, including nine Arleigh Burke-class destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Meanwhile, 12 U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighters) touched down at Ovda Airbase in southern Israel. 
https://www.foxnews.com/category/us/military/air-force
 
As national security analyst Joe Funderburke noted in the Small Wars Journal, "The F-22 is not a simple show-of-force aircraft. It is designed to suppress enemy air defenses and protect penetrating strike platforms like the B-2 Spirit bomber, the same combination used to devastate Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz nine months ago."
 
The president’s reminder of Operation Midnight Hammer — which utilized B-2 bombers to drop 30,000-pound "bunker buster" munitions — serves as the tactical blueprint for what follows the current deadline.
 
While the 2025 operation was a "surgical" surprise strike, the current buildup suggests a far broader mission set, potentially due to Iran’s threat of an aggressive response.
Iran’s response to Operation Midnight Hammer was measured and the U.S. had a warning. This time, Iran has vowed a more forceful response and says any U.S. troops operating in the Middle East could be open targets.
 
Amid his sharper diplomatic timeline, Trump also asserted that Iranian authorities had killed some 32,000 protesters in weeks of demonstrations that began in early January — a number far above independent estimates and Tehran’s own death toll.
 
"Just over the last couple of months with the protests, they’ve killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters — 32,000 protesters in their own country," the president said. "They shot them and hung them."
 
Administration officials have signaled that any agreement would require Iran to halt all uranium enrichment and provide verifiable guarantees that its program cannot be reconstituted — terms Iran repeatedly has objected to.
 
Both Washington and Iran appear to believe the other is bluffing.
 
Trump has framed the timeline as a final opportunity for diplomacy backed by overwhelming force. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, have publicly dismissed U.S. threats and warned that any strike would trigger retaliation against American forces and regional allies.
 
U.S. negotiators will meet with Iranian envoys once again in Geneva Thursday.
 
**NOTE: It is highly likely we will see things escalate over the next 24-72 hours.
 
CHINA JAMS STARLINK
 
Service not available. The Philippine Coast Guard accused Chinese forces of jamming the Starlink satellite internet service near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. On Monday, four Philippine patrol vessels and one patrol aircraft were deployed to the shoal to ensure the safety of Philippine fishing boats operating in the area. All the government vessels lost their Starlink connections when they came within 28 miles (45 kilometers) of the shoal. According to the Philippine coast guard, three Chinese coast guard vessels and a Chinese navy warship were seen about 40 miles from the shoal at the time.
 
RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN AFRICA
 
Russian expansion. The Russian Orthodox Church has increased its presence in Africa to more than 250 priests and 371 parishes in 36 countries since 2021 according to the church’s exarch in Africa. Metropolitan Constantine identified Russian-allied countries in the Sahel region, where Russia’s African Corps is active, as strongholds for the church – in addition to Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi and Zambia.
 
U.S. & UZBEKISTAN
 
Central Asian resources.
 
Uzbek Minister of Mining and Geology Bobir Islamov met with representatives of U.S. commodities trading company Traxys Group. They discussed opportunities for investment and cooperation in the mining industry. Last week, Traxys signed an agreement to invest $1 billion in Uzbekistan’s critical minerals sector.
 
DAESH/ISIS
 
AI for bad. Recruits for the Islamic State are being encouraged to use artificial intelligence to assist in their terrorist activities. Suggestions for how to “responsibly” use AI chatbots in religious campaigns or preaching were included in the most recent issue of the English-language Voice of Khorasan magazine, published by the Afghan branch of Islamic State Khorasan. It also warns users against sharing personal information with chatbots that can be traced back to the organization.
 
ARMENIA & AZERBAIJAN
 
Building trust. Azerbaijan is expected to deliver another 4,500 tons of diesel fuel to Armenia by rail on Wednesday. Azerbaijan has been sending oil products to Armenia since December. On Tuesday, the deputy foreign ministers of both countries met instead Geneva, on the sidelines of a U.N. Human Rights Council meeting, to discuss confidence-building measures, half a year after they signed a peace agreement in Washington.
 
INDOPAC
 
Replenishment. The U.S. Department of Defense plans to allocate $850 million to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to replenish weapons provided to Taiwan. Some $152 billion of the funds will come from a reconciliation bill passed last year. The Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, passed in 2022, allowed Washington to provide Taiwan with equipment from the department’s existing stockpiles.
 
GZB INFOCUS: SAFETY TIPS FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL
 
With current events unfolding in parts of Mexico and other parts of the world, I wanted to share a few practical steps you can take to be as prepared as possible if you’re traveling internationally. There's a few things you can do to reduce the risk of danger when traveling.
 
1. Register with the U.S. Government
Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) through the U.S. Department of State. This allows the U.S. Embassy to contact you in case of emergency and provides real-time security updates.
 
2. Monitor Official Guidance
Check the U.S. State Department travel advisory for your destination. Also, monitor local news from reliable sources while you’re there.
 
3. Transportation Planning
• Arrange airport transfers in advance through your hotel or a reputable service.
• Use authorized taxis or rideshare services only.
• Avoid public transportation late at night.
• Do not travel between cities after dark.
 
4. Stay in Secure
Accommodations
Choose well-reviewed hotels or resorts with controlled access and on-site security. Keep doors locked, use hotel safes, and avoid displaying valuables.
 
5. Keep a Low Profile
• Dress modestly and avoid flashy jewelry or expensive watches.
• Do not post real-time location updates on social media.
• Be discreet about cash and electronics in public.
 
6. Emergency Preparedness
• Share your itinerary with a trusted person back home.
• Have copies (digital and printed) of passports and important documents.
• Keep emergency contacts saved offline.
• Know the address and phone number of the nearest U.S. Consulate (most places, like Puerto Vallarta have a U.S. Consular Agency, research before you go).
 
7. Situational Awareness
If something feels off, leave. Avoid large crowds if tensions are elevated. Steer clear of demonstrations or areas with visible police/military activity. Pay attention to what's going on and establish baselines so you'll notice deviations from the norm. Situational awareness will help you avoid many issues before they begin so make sure you are paying attention to your surroundings. Look at maps before you go. Put the phone down as much as you can when you are out in public.
 
8. Medical & Insurance
Ensure you have travel medical insurance that covers evacuation if needed. Know the location of reputable hospitals near your hotel.
 
9. Defensive Tools
Traveling with a firearm to foreign countries is generally off-limits. There are some exceptions, but I wouldn't count on being able to travel with or carry your firearm anywhere. Knives are hit or miss. If you know how to handle a knife, or have some sort of knife fighting training, go to a supermarket or grocery store and purchase a fruit knife or a fillet knife.
 
Making a prison bat or club. Buy about 10 - 15 newspapers and some duct tape or gorilla tape. Take an individual sheet and roll it up as tightly as possible. Place the rolled up page on another sheet of newspaper — repeat. Wrap tightly with tape when finished.
Your best bet is to have some other forms of less-lethal tools like a tactical pen or flashlight. Flashlights are good for their intended use but some also have the ability to be used as a blunt force object as well, but would generally be allowed wherever you go.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 

—END REPORT