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Title: November 16, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 16 NOVEMBER 2025

Today’s GZB focuses on two recent incidents, 1 Domestic and 1 Global — both conducted by extremists or inspired by extremism. I always avoid extremists — on either side. They are dangerous and attract mentally unstable individuals. As a mob, they are even more dangerous. Always avoid extremists and extremist events.

DOMESTIC SITREP

DOJ seeking suspect after attack on US Attorney Alina Habba’s office

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced Thursday that an individual attempted to confront Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey Alina Habba on Wednesday night, "destroyed property in her office" and then "fled the scene.'’

"Thankfully, Alina is ok," Bondi added. “Any violence or threats of violence against any federal officer will not be tolerated. Period. This is unfortunately becoming a trend as radicals continue to attack law enforcement agents around the country."

"We will find this person, and the individual will be brought to justice. Our federal prosecutors, agents, and law-enforcement partners put their lives on the line every day to protect the American people, and this Department will use every legal tool available to ensure their safety and hold violent offenders fully accountable," Bondi also said.

Habba said following the incident that, "I will not be intimidated by radical lunatics for doing my job."

On its website, the Justice Department said that as Acting U.S. Attorney and Special Attorney to the United States Attorney General, Habba "is responsible for overseeing all federal criminal prosecutions and the litigation of all civil matters in New Jersey in which the federal government has an interest."

GLOBAL SITREP

STUDENT SETS OFF IED IN JAKARTA

On 7 November 2025, at approximately 12:15 p.m. local time, an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated inside a mosque at Senior High School (SMA) 72 in Kelapagading, North Jakarta, injuring at least 54 people and causing property damage. The attack occurred during Friday prayers, amplifying its impact. Police arrested the suspected perpetrator, 17-year-old student Muhammad Nazriel Fahel Hidayat, who was injured during the blast. Investigators found the explosion originated from an object placed behind the school hall near the mosque's loudspeaker system, which explains the high number of hearing-related injuries. Early reports suggested possible bullying motives; however, emerging evidence indicates ideological influence. The suspect was a Muslim youth but displayed strong identification with other extremist subcultures.

A search of his home revealed explosive powder and handwritten notes, while his toy gun carried disturbing inscriptions: • "14 Words. For Agartha" and "Brenton Tarrant: Welcome to Hell' - references to white supremacist ideology and the Christchurch mosque shooter, Brenton Tarrant. • "Natural Selection" - the slogan worn by Eric Harris during the 1999 Columbine massacre. • "1189' - likely referencing 8 U.S.C. §1189, which designates foreign terrorist organisations. • The names Alexandre Bissonnette (Quebec mosque shooter, 2017) and Luca Traini (Italian far-right shooter, 2018) were also written on the fake weapon.

Updates and Key Takeaways:

Details of the Incident:

• Location: A mosque located within the complex of State Senior High School (SMAN) 72 in the Kelapa Gading area of North Jakarta.

• Date and Time: The explosions occurred around 12:15 p.m. on Friday, November 7, 2025, as worshippers were gathering for Friday prayers.

• Casualties: A total of 96 people were injured, with many suffering from burns and injuries from glass shards. Twenty-nine victims were hospitalized, including some in intensive care.

The Suspect and Investigation

The suspect, a student at the school who has not been publicly identified, was also injured in the blasts and underwent surgery.

• Devices: Indonesia's counter-terrorism unit, Densus 88, found a total of seven explosive devices that the teen had carried to the school. Four of these devices detonated, while three did not explode. The teen assembled the small-scale bombs alone at home.

• Motive and Influence: Police described the suspect as a loner obsessed with violent and extreme online content. He reportedly wanted to copy extremists he found online but investigators have found no links with any established militant networks. The motive is believed to be rooted in personal grievances and feeling isolated, rather than a planned terrorist attack by a group.

• Evidence: Authorities recovered possible explosive powder, supporting materials, and a modified airsoft gun at the scene.

The Indonesian authorities have emphasized that this appears to be an isolated incident by one individual and urged the public not to jump to conclusions about it being a wider terrorist act.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

*Note: These ISW KTs are from 12 Nov but I thought the Intel still held relevancy, I.e., Iraqi election AAR and Iran’s Persian Gulf Activity.

ISW Key Takeaways:

• Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: The voter turnout rate was 56 percent in the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections, according to Iraq’s electoral commission. Iraqi politicians will likely continue informal government formation negotiations in advance of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of election results. CTP-ISW observed three instances of political violence on election day.

• Insurgent Activity in Syria: An Alawite insurgent leader called for Alawites to establish an “independent region” along the coast on November 12. The Men of Light do not appear to have the capabilities or support to successfully force the Syrian government to withdraw from the coast at this time.

• Iranian Defense Strategy: Iranian officials continue to inspect naval units in the Persian Gulf to secure Iran's control over the Gulf, likely as part of Iran’s effort to prepare for any potential conflict with the United States or Israel. These inspections suggest that Iranian officials continue to believe renewed war with the United States or Israel is imminent.

GZB INFOCUS: Visualizing World Debt by Country in 2025

Key Takeaways:

• Gross public debt stands at $111 trillion globally in 2025, rising by $8.3 trillion since 2024.

• Together, the U.S. and China hold 51.8% of the world’s government debt.

While global public debt is lower than pandemic highs in real terms, it remains stubbornly elevated at $111 trillion.

This graphic shows world debt by country in 2025, based on data from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/text.pdf).

America’s debt burden exceeds $38 trillion in 2025, standing at 125% of GDP. Over the past five years, net interest payments on the national debt have nearly tripled. They are projected to double again by 2035 to reach $1.8 trillion per year. With $18.7 trillion in debt, China ranks in second. In 2025, debt expanded by almost $2.2 trillion, driven by government stimulus and weaker land revenues given a struggling property market sector.

As we can see, Japan follows next with a $9.8 trillion debt pile, equal to 230% of GDP. Even though debt remains sky-high, the country’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, is proposing $92.2 billion in stimulus spending and subsidies.

The UK and France round out the top largest debt burdens, both hovering near $4 trillion. France, in particular, has experienced significant political instability amid contentious budget cut proposals, cycling through five prime ministers over the past two years.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT