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Title: December 9, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 9 DECEMBER 2025
DOMESTIC SITREP
 
TRUMP ADMIN LAYS OUT NEW SECURITY POLICY STRATEGY ON 12-8-25
 
National Security:
 
One of the primary functions of government is to ensure its citizens remain safe from external and internal threats. From conventional military strikes to terrorist attacks, governments must have the policies in place to protect their countries and ensure stability. These include robust intelligence gathering, deep relationships with international allies and partners, and strong defense and military institutions.
 
This new Security Strategy reaffirms longstanding principles of US grand strategy, like nuclear deterrence and preventing hostile countries from dominating important regions. It announces new policies for new problems, like how to maintain US technological leadership in a shifting geopolitical landscape where countries like China, Russia, and Iran are reimagining a global order where they are pushing the international agenda and shaping global trade.
 
Although “BRICS” has been attempting to become some sort of alternative to U.S. dollar trade dominance, this is completely unrealistic to anyone who knows geopolitics. The countries involved in BRICS (Brasil, Russia, India, China and the others that have joined) have too many competing interests and not enough in common to form anything tangible.
 
The new strategy identifies the Western Hemisphere as a priority theater for US national security strategy through the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. This is a change from past strategy, and the promise of new economic engagement will be welcomed by countries in the region.
 
The strategy in the report would have benefited from a dedicated strategic context section. The discussion of the national security threats facing the nation — especially from the “Axis of Aggressors” — are only thinly sketched.
 
Defined goals:
 
The strategy is remarkably clear in its articulation of the goals on page five. This includes defined goals to achieve US dominance in emerging technologies, support allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and counter adversaries in the Western Hemisphere.
 
Clear lines of effort:
 
The strategy lists many principles and activities, but it does not aggregate these up into major lines of effort.
 
Realistic implementation guidelines:
 
More so than its predecessors, this strategy does specify clear priorities and rules out activities (like intervention and democracy promotion) that had been part of past strategies. One can debate the wisdom of the prioritization, but the hard-nosed prioritization does make the strategy inherently sustainable. As with all strategic documents, resourcing will be a major challenge to enacting the vision laid out within it.
 
U.S. UTILITY GRID THREAT ASSESSMENT
 
As the last US National Security Agency director warned in alarming comments last month, China is hacking into American electrical infrastructure. Public reporting and government advisories also point to China pre-positioning backdoors in power grid control systems and electrical power supply chains. Through these means, China is establishing leverage over critical infrastructure, and it could use this leverage to threaten, disrupt, or degrade services in a crisis, especially if Beijing seeks to block US involvement if it moves against Taiwan.
 
This kind of access gives China options for coercion, deterrence, and signaling, pursued through temporary and targeted effects in a “gray zone”.
 
crisis, as well as for conducting larger-scale attacks in the event of a major conflict. With this in mind, it is essential that the private sector—not just the US government and military—better prepare for attacks on the US electrical grid resulting from a geopolitical crisis in the Indo-Pacific. Importantly, this preparation should include both assessing the geopolitical risks and practicing what to do in a crisis.
 
Note: GZB highly recommends for families, individuals and communities to up their preparedness levels and to be prepared for a 60-day event. This is what electric coops and companies across the country are telling their employees to prepare for. 60 days. Whenever I hear that kind of suggestion — personally, I’m going to prepare for a 6 month event.
 
GLOBAL SITREP
 
MALI
 
‘Depart immediately’: State Department warns Americans as al Qaeda threatens to overrun African nation:
 
Mali capital under siege al Qaeda siege as terror group's affiliate gains dangerous momentum across West Africa.
 
An al-Qaeda linked group, JNIM has imposed a blockade on Mali's capital cutting off most trade and fuel choking economic lifelines.
 
The four terrorist groups responsible for the most deaths in 2023 were Islamic State (IS), Hamas, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and Al-Shabaab.
 
Of the 3,350 terrorist attacks recorded in 2023, 54 per cent were attributed to a group. This compares to 48 per cent in 2022 and 45 per cent in 2021. The countries with the highest number of attacks not attributed to a group were Myanmar, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Pakistan.
 
There is a clear correlation between the impact of terrorism and the level of organised criminal activity. This correlation is particularly strong in certain areas, like the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa.
 
The nexus between organized crime and terrorism in the Sahel is characterised by activities such as cattle and livestock rustling, artisanal gold mining, drug trafficking, kidnapping, and ransom demands.
 
Terrorist groups integrate organised criminal operations by co-opting illicit economies, taxing both criminal and unregulated legal enterprises, and providing security for criminal groups and the transportation of illicit goods.
 
Areas with contested territorial control typically experience higher levels of violence, including terror attacks.
 
Terrorist organizations like JNIM in the Sahel often increase violent attacks, kidnappings, and ransom activities during phases of territorial expansion or competition. Once they establish control, these activities usually decrease.
 
For example, in Mali, cattle rustling has significantly increased due to escalating conflict and a campaign by IS-Sahel in late 2022 to expand their territory.
 
In Burkina Faso, gold mining has been a major factor in JNIM's expansion as they seek to extend influence into gold mining regions.
 
Kidnapping has surged in the Sahel, with incidents increasing from 78 in 2017 to over 1,000 in 2023. In 2025, it’s become the most profitable.
 
JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) LATEST KIDNAPPING OPERATION
 
U.A.E.’s Ransom Payment for Kidnapped Prince Bolsters al Qaeda in Mali — The United Arab Emirates reportedly paid more than $20 million to secure the release of an Emirati prince kidnapped by al Qaeda’s West African affiliate, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).
 
The ransom, which also included the release of imprisoned militants, has strengthened the group as it blockades Mali’s capital, Bamako. Western officials warn the funds could accelerate al Qaeda’s bid to seize control of Mali amid worsening regional instability. Human rights experts called the payment a “huge boon” for extremist operations across the Sahel.
 
RUSSIA’S AFRIKA CORPS
 
As Russia’s Africa Corps fights in Mali, witnesses describe atrocities from beheadings to rapes — Refugees fleeing northern Mali told the Associated Press that Russia’s new “Africa Corps” — the military unit that replaced the Wagner Group six months ago — is committing widespread atrocities alongside Malian forces, including indiscriminate executions, rapes, and mutilations. Witnesses described scorched-earth tactics, burned villages, looting, and even missing organs from victims’ bodies. Despite hopes of reduced violence after Wagner’s exit, civilians say abuses have worsened. Analysts note that Africa Corps operates under Russia’s Defense Ministry, making Moscow legally accountable for potential war crimes. The UN reports that desperate civilians are trapped between Islamist militants and joint Malian-Russian offensives amid growing impunity and the withdrawal of international oversight.
 
NIGERIA
 
Nigerian government secures release of 100 kidnapped schoolchildren, Channels TV says — Nigeria’s government has reportedly secured the release of 100 children abducted last month from St. Mary’s Catholic boarding school in Niger state, according to Channels Television. Gunmen had kidnapped the students and 12 staff members on November 21 in one of the country’s largest mass abductions in years. Officials and church representatives said they had not yet been formally notified of the release, while the federal government has not commented. The incident underscores Nigeria’s ongoing security crisis more than a decade after the Chibok school kidnappings.
 
RUSSIAN SPY
 
A former Russian spy now leads Moscow’s effort to promote strong tech ties with India — A former Russian deep-cover spy based in the U.S. is leading Moscow's efforts to create a technological alliance with India. Andrei Bezrukov, now head of the Russian Association for the Export of Technological Sovereignty, is promoting a strategic partnership that includes an offer of technology transfers that would allow India to produce the Su-57 stealth fighter. In addition to such initiatives, top former Russian intelligence operatives led by Bezrukov have launched efforts to expand Russia’s influence into India’s cybersecurity and information technology sectors.
 
AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN
 
Overnight exchange of fire along the Afghan-Pakistan border kills 5 and wounds 8, officials say — An overnight clash between Afghan and Pakistani forces near Spin Boldak in southern Afghanistan left five Afghan civilians dead, including three children and a woman, and wounded eight others, officials said. Pakistan reported three civilian injuries on its side and accused Afghan troops of opening fire, while Afghan officials blamed Pakistan for initiating the exchange. The violence, which violated a fragile Qatar-mediated ceasefire, highlights rising tensions since October’s deadly border clashes. Both governments have recently accused each other of harboring militants and undermining peace efforts.
 
MIDDLE EAST SITREP
 
ISW Key Takeaways:
 
• The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council’s Advance in Yemen: The United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is part of the Yemeni government, has seized key areas of Hadramawt and Mahrah governorates in eastern Yemen since December 3. Yemeni actors close to or openly allied with the STC and the UAE have supported or not explicitly condemned the STC’s operation to seize control of these governorates. Some actors have reiterated the STC’s secessionist aims. The STC offensive may increase tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while increasing Emirati influence in Yemen.
 
• Turkish Military Preparations in Syria: The Turkish government has continued to outline political justifications for a potential joint Turkish–Syrian military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria if the SDF does not fully integrate into the Syrian Ministry of Defense by December 31, 2025.
Israeli and US Naval Exercise: Israel and the United States began a week-long naval exercise off the coast of Israel on December 7 to prepare for “regional threats.” Iran and Iranian-backed groups have frequently posed maritime and aerial threats to Israel and international shipping, such as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Iranian drone and missile attacks on Israel.
 
• US Security Aid to Iraq: The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which the US Congress is expected to vote on in the coming days, demands that the Iraqi federal government take “credible steps” toward reducing the operational capacity of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in order to receive US security funding in 2026. It is unclear if the NDAA’s use of the term “Iraqi Security Forces” refers to the Iraqi security apparatus as a whole or to the ISF specifically.
 
• Iranian Efforts to Advance Military Technology: Senior Iranian military officials called on students at Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-controlled universities to help the Iranian armed forces improve their technological and “preemptive” capabilities.
 
• Potential Israeli Operation Against Iran:Unspecified European diplomats told Al Monitor on December 6 that Israel would likely strike Iran in the next year if Iran resumes enriching uranium at high levels. Iran has conducted “extensive” clean-up efforts at several nuclear weaponization sites, but there are no indications that Iran has resumed enriching uranium or retrieved its highly-enriched uranium stockpile after the war.
 
IRAN
 
Iran is pragmatically pursuing closer diplomatic and trade ties with Azerbaijan amid Iranian concerns about Azerbaijan’s relationships with the United States and Israel, which Iran perceives as a threat to its security.
 
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku on December 8 to discuss strengthening Iranian-Azerbaijani relations.
 
Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s support for the 3+3 format, which is a diplomatic initiative involving Iran, Turkey, Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan to ensure security in the Caucasus through trade “without any foreign interference.”[lxxxiii] Araghchi and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, also discussed how Iran and Azerbaijan are expanding bilateral trade through border infrastructure projects, such as the Rasht-Astara Railway and the Aghband-Kalalah highway bridge.
 
An Iranian expert on the Caucasus told Iranian media on December 8 that Iran wants Azerbaijan to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to remove trade barriers between the two countries. Iran is not an EAEU member but has had an “observer status” in the union since 2024 and signed a free trade agreement with the EAEU in May 2025. Member or observer status in the union reduces tariffs by 90 percent.
 
The Iranian expert noted that increased trade between Iran and Azerbaijan would activate Iran‘s land trade routes with Russia and support Iran’s regional trade network. Iran’s efforts to increase trade with Azerbaijan come amid Iranian officials’ concerns about US and Israeli interference in the Caucasus. The United States proposed in August 2025 to oversee the development of the Zangezur Corridor in southern Armenia to connect Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region.
 
The corridor would run along Iran’s only shared border with Armenia and sever Iran’s land access to Russia and Europe via Armenia, which could hinder Iranian efforts to become a major transit hub. Some Iranian media outlets separately accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israel to launch attacks against Iran from Azerbaijani territory during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War, which Azerbaijan has denied. Iran remains concerned about Israeli infiltration into Iranian territory from Azerbaijan, as well as Azerbaijan’s deepening relationship with Israel.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Build resilient communities.
 
—END REPORT