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Title: August 8, 2025

GLOBAL SITREP

ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN & THE TRUMP ROUTE

Settlement in sight. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are expected to sign a peace framework when they meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday. The agreement will reportedly award the United States exclusive development rights for a transit corridor, named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (or TRIPP), that will extend through Armenian territory. Construction of a corridor from Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan, through Armenia, had been a major sticking point in negotiations between the two countries, which have for decades fought over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR PEACE TALKS

Trump-Putin summit. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that there was a “good chance” he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon. His comment came after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met earlier on Wednesday in person with Putin, who apparently suggested face-to-face talks with Trump. Trump also reportedly suggested to European leaders that the meeting would be followed by trilateral talks involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On Thursday, a Kremlin aide confirmed that Russia and the U.S. had agreed to a presidential summit in the coming days and that the venue was already decided.

UKRAINIAN POLL

Ukrainian public sentiment. In a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology the percentage of Ukrainians who said they would reject Russia’s terms for a peace deal declined to 76 percent from 82 percent in May. The survey also found that 17 percent of Ukrainians said they could agree to Moscow’s plan – which involves limits on Ukraine’s military, a ban on Kyiv joining military alliances and recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia – up from 10 percent in May.

MAYLASIA & RUSSIA

Royal visit. Malaysian King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar is in Russia this week, the first-ever state visit by a Malaysian monarch. He held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin about bilateral relations, as well as international and regional issues. Sultan Ibrahim will also visit Russia’s southwest city of Kazan to discuss with local officials cooperation in the agro-industrial sector.

U.S. & BRAZIL

Cold shoulder. In an interview with Reuters Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he would not reach out to U.S. President Donald Trump for direct talks any time soon, a week after Trump said he would impose 50 percent tariffs on imports from Brazil. Da Silva added that he believed Trump was not interested in a meeting and that he would not “humiliate” himself by proposing one. Relatedly, the Chinese Foreign Minister said that Beijing would work with Brasilia to strengthen cooperation throughout the Global South.

RUSSIA & INDIA

Putin headed to India. Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to visit India later this year, the Indian prime minister’s adviser, Ajit Doval, said Doval is currently in Moscow, where he met on Thursday with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu.

ISRAEL, EGYPT & GAS

Big deal for Israel. Stakeholders in Israel’s Leviathan natural gas field signed a $35 billion deal to supply Egypt with about 130 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2040. It’s the largest export deal in Israel’s history. Deliveries will begin in 2026 after upgrades to the pipeline network are completed.

MOLDOVA

Friction in Moldova. The parliament in the autonomous Moldovan region of Gagauzia adopted a resolution aimed at defending the regional governor, Evghenia Gutul, who was sentenced by a Chisinau court to seven years in prison for funneling Russian funds to a now-banned political party. Gutul denied the charges, claiming they were politically motivated. She was secretary of the Shor party from 2019 to 2022, when the alleged crimes took place.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

ISW/CTP Key Takeaways:

• Hezbollah Disarmament: The Lebanese Council of Ministers agreed on August 7 to the objectives of US Envoy Thomas Barrack’s proposal to disarm Hezbollah.

• Hezbollah Reconstitution: Iranian officials and Axis-affiliated media recently reported that Hezbollah has begun to reconstitute its command structure, but it is very unlikely that Hezbollah could rebuild its units to the level of proficiency the units had before the war. Hezbollah also faces several significant challenges that will complicate its ability to reconstitute.

• Iranian National Security Appointments: Iranian media outlet Nour News proposed on August 7 that the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) will likely increase its focus on domestic security, while still prioritizing foreign policy. Nour News also attributed Larijani’s appointment to the SNSC as well as the SNSC’s formation of the Defense Council to the “current security conditions,” including “the possibility of a renewed enemy [Israeli or US] attack” on Iran.

• Iraqi Militia Political Maneuverings: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah is attempting to use the Shia Coordination Framework as a vehicle to sideline the Sudani administration ahead of the November 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections. The Shia Coordination Framework groups are now in increasing competition with one another ahead of the November 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections, which will make it more difficult for Kataib Hezbollah to build a political coalition to sideline Sudani.

• Druze-Syrian Government Relations: Druze rhetoric and actions that are hostile to the Syrian government demonstrate the deep barriers to reconciliation and lack of trust between the transitional government and the Druze community. A committee formed by prominent Druze Sheikh Hikmat al Hijri announced the formation of a “temporary” autonomous government for Suwayda Province on August 6.

EUROPEAN SITREP

NATO’S ARTICLE 5 HAS NO TEETH

In recent days, drones launched from the Russian-aligned state of Belarus have pierced Lithuanian airspace, drawing alarms from the region’s political and military leaders.

One drone traversed approximately 100 kilometers, loitered ominously over Vilnius carrying two kilograms of explosives and ultimately crashed inside a military training zone. Earlier in July, another drone forced the evacuation of high-level officials when it crashed near the Šumskas border crossing.

Simultaneously, Russian forces struck a Ukrainian gas depot located mere yards from Romania’s border half a mile away, a strike that triggered warnings and prompted Romanian F‑16s to patrol the vicinity.

Though these seem like isolated incidents, observers point to a troubling pattern. Russian drones have drifted — or perhaps even been directed — into NATO airspace before, and NATO’s response has been muted.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė, while stressing that there is no evidence suggesting the latest drone breached intentionally, said "this is an unprecedented and alarming incident," especially given that the drone flew just one kilometer from the president’s residence.

Describing the behavior as "reckless drone incursions," she warned they amount to "a direct test of NATO’s resolve." In response, Lithuania has pledged to review its defensive protocols and urged NATO to bolster its air defenses as a clear message that the alliance stands ready to safeguard every inch of its territory.

Romania, having endured repeated drone spillovers, passed a law this May empowering its forces to intercept or destroy unauthorized drones. As a result, no incursion occurred in connection with the latest strike near its border.

Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, has been sounding the alarm for months. In November 2024, Kahl cautioned that Russia’s growing employment of hybrid tactics — ranging from sabotage and cyberattacks to disinformation — raises the likelihood that NATO may ultimately feel compelled to invoke Article 5.

GZB INFOCUS:

20 Highest Ranked Cryptocurrencies

BLUF: The 20 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization as of July 25, 2025, using data from CoinGecko.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency with a $2.36 trillion market capitalization, more than 5x larger than the next largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum.

• Bitcoin makes up 62% of the total market cap of cryptocurrency, having risen up from lows of around 40% in mid-2022.

• Layer 1 tokens and stablecoins dominate the rest of the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies, however, memecoin Dogecoin still ranks ninth with a $37 billion market cap.

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