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Title: February 25, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 25 FEBRUARY 2026
 
ENORMOUS STRIKE PACKAGE AVAILABLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST:**
 
There are 19 U.S. Navy combatants operating in the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean, the U.S. has assembled an extremely large strike package for Iran.
**Iran is continuing to prepare for a potential military conflict with the United States** - Several unspecified Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces units held an exercise on February 24 at the Madinah ol Munawarah Operational Base in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, and on unspecified Persian Gulf islands. Madinah ol Munawarah is located near the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The unspecified islands are presumably the Nazeat Islands, which lie just west of the strait and host IRGC facilities. Several senior Iranian military officials have threatened in recent weeks to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for a US attack on Iran. The IRGC could use the Nazeat Islands to stage operations. AFGS-affiliated media stated that the exercise focused on “shore-to-sea fire” to target enemies that try to approach the coastline. IRGC Ground Forces units practiced using roaming drones to identify targets and Shahed attack drones to hit the targets. Iranian military officials stated that the forces used new missile systems and simulated ”offensive” and ”defensive” electronic warfare (EW) scenarios.
 
**Iran nears deal to buy supersonic anti-ship missiles from China as students protest in Tehran **- Iran is nearing a deal with China to acquire CM-302 anti-ship cruise missiles, according to officials familiar with the negotiations, a move that could significantly enhance Tehran’s maritime strike capabilities amid rising regional tensions. The supersonic system, produced by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, would pose a heightened threat to U.S. naval forces operating near Iran. The talks reportedly accelerated following last year’s Israel-Iran conflict, and coincide with a U.S. naval buildup ordered by President Trump. The prospective transfer would underscore deepening military ties between Tehran and Beijing despite international sanctions constraints. Meanwhile, Iranian students across several universities in Tehran protested for a third day on Monday, burning flags and chanting anti-government slogans.
 
IRAN
 
**Iran Expands Shadow Oil “Trustee” Network as War Fears Grow **-
 
Iran is reportedly relying on opaque “trustees” to sell oil and import goods amid tightening U.S. sanctions and potential war. Officials and former executives told Al Jazeera that billions in proceeds—possibly over $11 billion—have not returned to Iran, with intermediaries accused of using foreign shell companies and bank accounts in the UAE. Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and parliament members warned of widespread graft, while President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered a review. Economists say the system fuels inflation and currency collapse, yet Tehran plans to expand it as provincial governors and importers gain authority to barter oil for essentials.
 
HOUTHIS: YEMEN
 
**Houthis Mobilize Troops Across Yemen as Regional Tensions Rise **-
 
The Houthis have reportedly begun large-scale troop movements across Yemen, deploying reinforcements to Marib, Hodeidah, and border fronts near Saudi Arabia, according to UAE-based Al-Ain media. The mobilization’s objectives remain unclear but may signal preparations for renewed conflict amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions and friction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen policy. Analysts warn the buildup could collapse the fragile UN-brokered truce in place since 2022. The redeployments, led by senior Houthi commanders trained in Sana’a, come as other Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah, consider escalations in response to potential U.S. action against Tehran.
 
BULGARIA
 
**US Air Force Mobilization in Bulgaria Heightens Tension Ahead of Iran Talks **-
 
Bulgaria’s Sofia Airport temporarily suspended civilian flights as multiple U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling aircraft, C-17 and C-130 transports, and troop carriers staged there, fueling speculation of preparations for possible strikes on Iran. Bulgarian officials attributed the closures to maintenance, while confirming American aircraft were supporting NATO vigilance activities. Investigators traced over 120 U.S. warplanes crossing the Atlantic, including F-16s, F-35As, and F-22s. The buildup coincides with renewed nuclear talks, as President Donald Trump warned Tehran to reach a deal within ten days. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group is also moving toward the region.
 
CIA & IRAN
 
**CIA Releases Video in Farsi Guiding Iranians on Secure Contact Methods with the Agency **-
 
The CIA published a video in Persian on Tuesday outlining how Iranian dissidents can securely contact the agency amid renewed anti-government protests. The video provides step-by-step guidance to protect users’ identities, advising them to use a burner device, update their internet browser, and activate incognito mode. It also recommends clearing browsing history after making contact. The agency strongly encourages the use of encryption tools such as Tor or a VPN, warning that without them, visits to the CIA website could be visible to authorities. The CIA says it will review all messages received, though responses are not guaranteed and will depend on an assessment of the sender’s security situation.
 
SYRIA
 
DAESH/ISIS Activity in Syria: The Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) is likely attempting to exploit the conditions created by the Syrian government’s recent offensive to recruit fighters and expand ISIS networks in Syria **- The Islamic State’s (IS) spokesperson Abu Hudhayfa al Ansari declared on February 21 that IS has begun a “new chapter of resistance” in Syria targeting the Syrian government. Abu Hudhayfa’s call for a new ISIS campaign likely encouraged a series of ISIS attacks targeting Syrian government forces in Raqqa and Deir ez Zor provinces. ISIS and ISIS-inspired fighters will likely attempt to conduct further attacks against Syrian government targets in the coming days and weeks.
 
**ISIS Spokesperson Releases Audio Message Calling for Attacks Against the Syrian Government and Praising Recent Acts of Terrorism**-
 
On February 21, ISIS’s spokesperson Abu Hudhayfah Al-Ansari released an official audio address calling for attacks against the Syrian transitional government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and commending lone actor attacks and continued ISIS campaigns throughout Africa. ISIS, via an editorial in its Al-Naba newsletter released on February 19, condemned international borders and what the terrorist organization bemoaned as improper Ramadan celebrations. Also on February 19, ISIS released a video from the group’s West Africa Province in Nigeria, consisting of a speaker describing the idea of hatred of unbelievers and love for coreligionists, including those who have made mistakes in their beliefs.
 
**In First Speech Since March 2024, Islamic State (ISIS) Spokesman Calls For Attacks On 'Crusader And Jewish Targets Everywhere'** - On February 21, 2026, the fourth day of Ramadan according to the Islamic State (ISIS), official ISIS media outlet Al-Furqan released a 35-minute audio message, featuring a speech by ISIS spokesman Abu Hudhayfah Al-Ansari. The message, titled "The Right Course Has Become Distinct from the Wrong" (Quran 2:256), is the first speech by Al-Ansari since March 2024 and only the fourth message the current ISIS spokesman has delivered since August 2023.
 
PIJ
 
**Palestinian Islamic Jihad Expands in West Bank Amid Hamas Weakness** -
 
 
Analysts and former officials say that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is increasingly asserting influence in the northern West Bank, capitalizing on Hamas’s constrained capacity due to Israeli military pressure and its focus on Gaza. Supported more reliably by Iran and unencumbered by governance responsibilities, PIJ is reportedly boosting recruitment through mosque sermons, social media, and alliances with local armed groups, such as Jenin’s Brigade 313. Israel’s counterterror operations have had limited long-term effect, and PIJ’s decentralized structure complicates deterrence. The group’s rise risks prolonging instability, weakening the Palestinian Authority, and expanding Iran’s foothold in the West Bank, potentially requiring sustained Israeli military attention.
 
AI, MDM & FAKE NEWS: CARTEL TOOLS
 
**After killing of top drug lord, cartels use fake news to spread fear in Mexico **-
 
A surge of misinformation has amplified public fear across Mexico following the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. While retaliatory violence included roadblocks and arson, widely shared social media posts falsely depicted airports overrun, aircraft ablaze and tourist centers engulfed in chaos. Researchers assess that cartel linked networks helped disseminate fabricated and AI generated content to exaggerate instability and undermine confidence in the state. Mexican officials, including Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch and President Claudia Sheinbaum, pledged investigations and rapid rebuttals. Analysts warn such information operations complicate crisis response and allow organized crime to reshape the narrative despite tactical government gains.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

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END REPORT