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Title: November 13, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 

13 NOVEMBER 2025

From my brother in Christ, David Eubank:

SPECIAL REPORT: FREE BURMA RANGERS UPDATE (BURMA, IRAQ & SYRIA) 

From Oct. 26-28, Rangers and local officials hosted  four GLCs for a total of 210 children. The Rangers treated 271 patients and taught a child nutrition program during each visit. Between Nov. 7-8, in Moe Bye, Rangers hosted a CCP while the Burma Army battled combined forces of the KNDF, Karenni National People’s Liberation Front (KNPLF) and other allied resistance forces. During the battle, six resistance soldiers were injured by 120mm mortars.

A Burma military airstrike killed five people, and Burma Army attacks currently threaten to again displace over 1,000 people who are already living in IDP sites; meanwhile, Rangers treated patients, delivered medicine and tarpaulins to IDPs, and provided training for 16 KNDF medics.

On Oct. 30, Rangers provided medicine to IDPs who had fled from Phekhon Township, southern Shan State, to an IDP camp in northern Karenni State. Elsewhere in Loikaw Township, between Nov. 2-4, Rangers provided Combat First Aid Training for KNDF medics. The topics covered included: tourniquet use, junctional bleeding, airway management, respiration, needle decompression, finger thoracostomy, blood transfusions, and MARCH. In total, 16 soldiers and medics were trained. In Pa Se La area, West Demoso Township, on Nov. 3, a Burma Army airstrike killed five people. Following the airstrike, three Burma Army FPV drones attacked the same area. These attacks also damaged and destroyed many buildings. Later, on Nov. 8, Rangers delivered tarpaulins to IDPs in Elephant IDP Camp. Burma Army drone, fighter jet, and artillery strikes continue to target areas with IDPs, and over 1000 IDPs will likely need to flee again soon.

TERRORIST ARRESTED IN GERMANY 

**Suspected Hamas member arrested in Germany** - German federal police arrested a suspected Hamas operative on a highway near the Czech border, prosecutors said Wednesday. The Lebanese-born suspect allegedly procured an automatic rifle, eight pistols, and more than 600 rounds of ammunition in Berlin in August for planned attacks on Israeli or Jewish sites in Europe. The weapons were seized during the arrest of an alleged accomplice already in custody. The man will appear before the Federal Court of Justice in Karlsruhe. Related raids were conducted in Denmark, part of a wider probe into Hamas-linked networks across Europe. 

AFRICAN JIHADIST ARRESTED IN CÔTE D’IVORIE

**Ivory Coast man jailed for 10 years in Malta for jihadist recruitment **- A Maltese court sentenced 33-year-old Mouhamadou Dosso, an Ivory Coast national with Italian residency, to 10 years in prison for attempting to recruit people in Europe to carry out jihadist attacks. Arrested in November 2024, Dosso admitted to distributing extremist propaganda and seeking recruits, mainly targeting isolated asylum seekers from conflict zones. Police said his phones contained Islamic State-related materials and messages urging followers to fight for jihad, promising heavenly rewards for those who died. Authorities did not confirm whether Dosso was an active Islamic State member or if he successfully recruited anyone. 

IRAQ & SYRIA

Our Middle East team continues actively coordinating assistance for families in both Iraq and Syria. Support included $150 USD to a family for a their son’s medical expenses in Syria, $500 USD to another family in Syria to help dig a farming well, and $1,000 USD to a young girl in need of surgery to correct a muscle condition in her leg.

We are happy to share that 13-year-old Fadia has now undergone the three necessary surgeries. She had leg deformities, and parts of her limbs were corrected to help her walk normally again. Before surgery, she was able to walk but with a bowed leg. These procedures will allow her to walk properly and return to school. Her condition is good, though she will remain in the hospital for some time to recover. Please pray for her healing and comfort, as she has been in significant pain.

In addition, the team assisted a family in Mosul, Iraq, by covering several months of rent. Pray for the families in Iraq and Syria who received medical, housing, and livelihood support, that their physical needs would be met and their hearts strengthened with hope.

GLOBAL SITREP 

Fallout. Colombia will stop sharing intelligence with the United States until the Trump administration suspends strikes against suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said The U.K. has reportedly also stopped sharing intel with Washington on suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean over concerns about the legality of U.S. strikes.

Big assembly. Relatedly, Venezuela announced a “massive mobilization” of military forces in response to the buildup of U.S. assets in the Caribbean. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez said land, air, naval and reserve units will conduct exercises through Wednesdayunder President Nicolas Maduro’s orders. The drills will involve both the regular military and the Bolivarian Militia.

Islamabad blast. Militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack outside a courthouse in Islamabad that killed at least 12 people. In a statement, the group said it targeted “judges, lawyers and officials who carried out rulings under Pakistan’s un-Islamic laws,” adding that it would continue its attacks until Islamic law is implemented in Pakistan. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif blamed India for the bombing, saying it was carried out by “Indian-sponsored terrorist proxies.”

Drone leader. Ukraine has become a global leader in drone production. According to a Bloomberg report, the country annually produces approximately 4 million drones of various types. By comparison, the U.S. manufactures about 100,000 drones annually. The surge was driven not just by domestic needs but also by growing demand from NATO countries. Some Ukrainian manufacturers have even set up production in other parts of Europe to service their European customers.

Military evolution. Russia’s military has created a new branch of the armed forces called the Unmanned Systems Forces. Units have been established throughout the country, and a chief for the branch has been appointed.

Oil prices. The discount on Russian Urals oil compared to Brent crude has gone up to nearly $20 per barrel, compared to $13-14 per barrel in early November, the sharpest increase in the past year. The growing gap is related to U.S. sanctions introduced last month against Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft.

Ballooning budget. Israel’s Defense Ministry says it needs a budget of $45 billion in 2026. This amount includes $2.2 billion to bolster Israel’s defenses against Iran and $11.5 billion to increase the number of reservists by tens of thousands next year.

Syrian contacts. The commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, spoke by phone with U.S. special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack. They discussed Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to the United States this week. Abdi said he expressed his commitment to accelerating the integration of the SDF into the Syrian state. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Turkish and Syrian counterparts to discuss regional security and Syria’s decision to join the international coalition against the Islamic State.

Shady business. China is building its own “shadow fleet” of vessels to import Russian liquefied natural gas and skirt Western sanctions, Bloomberg reported. According to the story, data on Chinese shipping shows increasingly opaque ownership and movements, indicating similar patterns to those displayed by the shadow fleet developed by Moscow since its invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg notes that creating this system for LNG will be more complicated than for oil because transporting LNG supplies requires specialized carriers.

Russia-Iran talks. The foreign ministers of Russia and Iran spoke by phone about bilateral relations, developments in the Middle East and the nuclear issue. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the call was initiated by Iran.

Closer ties. Australia and Indonesia signed an extended security treaty. Under the deal, both countries must consult each other if their security is threatened and consider how best to respond individually or jointly, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said following a meeting with his Indonesian counterpart.

GZB INFOCUS: NATO NEEDS NEW HARMEL REPORT 

Given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression in not only continuing the war in Ukraine but also testing NATO’s air and sea space with drones, fighter jets and underwater vehicles, it is time for the alliance to react decisively. 

Offering empty rhetoric and promises to spend more money on defense will not work short of one crucial factor. NATO needs to apply brain power in developing effective and affordable actions to counter Russia by affecting Putin’s mental processes and “outthink” him.

What is needed is a 21st-century version of the 1967 Harmel Report, headed by Pierre Harmel, Belgium’s foreign minister, that led the change from the alliance’s “massive retaliation” strategy to “flexible response.” Today, however, this report should focus on military options designed to change Putin’s behavior, eventually leading to military/diplomatic dialogue, a better understanding of each other’s concerns and, importantly, the resumption of arms control negotiations.

NATO’s centerpiece is Article 5, which states that an armed attack against one or more members shall be considered an attack against them all. But what constitutes an “armed attack” today? Is it cyber, disruption of underwater cables or overflights by armed fighters? What about “other measures” to affect domestic politics through influence operations or threats to use nuclear weapons? The answer is unclear, but it needs to be resolved and a consensus established, ideally on both sides.

What should NATO do?

In the Russian language, “maskirovka” means deception. NATO needs to plagiarize and use a reverse variant of maskirovka against the Russians in writing this report. 

To do that, in addition to adapting a porcupine defense (https://blog.usni.org/posts/2018/05/03/a-porcupine-defense-against-russia-and-china) we have proposed elsewhere, NATO must be able to disrupt, mislead and shock Putin using influence operations to convince or coerce him to stop his “armed attacks” against NATO. This starts with analyzing possible NATO strategies that could threaten any Russian incursion by attacking the country’s vital military centers of gravity.

First, except for theater nuclear weapons — and NATO has three nuclear-armed members, the United States, United Kingdom and France — the alliance is far superior in every measure of power, especially military. 

Despite fears of a Russian military attack against the West, the war in Ukraine has exposed the incompetence of many Russian generals and the evisceration of its army and navy. NATO must understand that Russia, while it is now learning lessons from its operations in Ukraine, is far weaker than many assume. These vulnerabilities can be exploited through NATO’s use of maskirovka.

Second, past promises for increased defense spending were never met. NATO’s Wales summit in 2014 committed members to applying 3% of GDP to defense. Similarly, this year’s summit set a goal of 5% of GDP, with 3.5% for defense and 1.5% for related infrastructure enhancements. Predicting the future is not easy, but, as in the past, virtually all members, including the U.S., will not reach that level. Better thinking and not more spending, regardless of whether the 5% of GDP goal is met, is needed.

Third, NATO must take the fight to Putin conceptually. Exploiting NATO’s geographic advantages is key. In the High North Finland, with an 800-mile border with Russia, and its neighbor Sweden provide strategic leverage. Russia’s northern fleet in the Kola Peninsula in the north cape is as vulnerable as its Black Sea fleet is to Ukrainian standoff missiles, unmanned submarines and drones

In the Baltic, the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is physically separated from Russia. It is an obvious target, especially for influence operations which threaten Russia’s hold on the population. In the Black Sea, with Turkey’s huge army and Romania and Bulgaria, any Russian attack could be offset by NATO’s ability to threaten Russian forces in Ukraine. 

To give this new Harmel Report teeth, tabletop and command post exercises that war-game these options will be used. Russia will no doubt monitor them. Finally, any Russian overflights or incursions into home waters that break agreed conventions must be met by force and shot down or sunk.

Clearly, this review will provoke strong reactions, both positive and negative, within NATO members and from Russia, thereby raising the threat of escalation. But the reality is that Russia is already using quasi “armed attacks” against NATO and NATO must react. The knowledge that two can play this game will make Russia pause and bring relations back into better balance, allowing for a more stable relationship.

NATO must take these initiatives to halt Putin’s use of “other measures” to attack and disrupt the alliance by affecting and influencing his strategic calculations. And, under U.S. President Donald Trump, America’s commitment to NATO is not assured. The alliance can neutralize this unhappy prospect by confronting Russia now.

While we did not believe Putin would make the strategic blunder of invading Ukraine a second time, given the weaknesses Russia faces and will continue to face, NATO can achieve its deterrence goals by counterintuitively becoming more aggressive, taking the offensive using brains, innovation and maskirovka to derail Putin’s calculations. But will it? And will NATO begin thinking about what a post-war Russia looks like to forestall another 1917 or 1991 and collapse?

Field Marshal David the Lord Richards is a former U.K. chief of defense. Dr. Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at Washington’s Atlantic Council. Both are co-authoring “Who Thinks Best Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe” due out in spring 2026.

***FINAL WORD: 

GZB agrees with this assessment. Of his own volition, Putin cannot just stop the war in Ukraine — it will end his leadership role as Russia won’t walk away with any kind of significant win. A million lives, billions of dollars, 78% of the wartime economy tied to the war effort — and for what? What does Russia have to show for it? 

Most European countries had not possessed the will to fight in a large conflict since WWII. They neglected to spend an adequate amount in their military budgets or train to a higher standard because of the dependence on U.S. troops stationed in Europe. 

The free security watch is over —  European countries must step up and meet the threat and the challenge with immediacy and conviction. 

That being said, Polish troops, Finland, the Norwegians, Sweden, the Romanians, Czech and Danish special operations forces — down to militia defense forces throughout the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania) have been training with U.S. troops at a much higher level over the past two years. 

GZB believes the will is there even if the combat experience isn’t. While the optimum outcome would be peace through negotiation, Putin continues to use “Maskirovka” at every opportunity. Unless sanctions and tariffs are set at a high enough level to hurt the Russian population in Moscow, the regime will continue to hold power and influence over the Russian people. 

The U.S. has to make the choice now, do we want to maintain a global pecking order where we are at the top? Russia and China  more than any other countries, have been fighting a war with U.S. in the Gray Zone for decades now. Death by a thousand cuts.  Negotiations and trade talks have not succeeded in putting an end to that. Perhaps it’s time to “escalate to deescalate.” 

Sometimes violence is the answer. 

—J.G.  

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT