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Title: December 15, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 15 DECEMBER 2025
SPECIAL REPORT: CURRENT DOMESTIC TERROR THREAT PICTURE
 
BLUF: Al-Qaeda and its affiliates have issued multiple calls for attacks throughout 2025, as highlighted in several official government reports and news releases. These calls emphasize targeting the United States and its interests, particularly in response to U.S. support for Israel in the ongoing conflict with Hamas.
 
Key information regarding these calls includes:
 
• Source of Calls: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the group's Yemen-based affiliate, has been particularly active.
 
• Media Publications: In mid-July 2025, AQAP released the 10th edition of its English-language Inspire Guide, which celebrated recent attacks and urged supporters in the U.S. to conduct their own.
 
• Target Guidance: The publications identified proper targets as individuals or organizations that support Israel, as well as U.S. law enforcement and government personnel.
 
• Attack Methods: The guidance encourages the use of simple, accessible methods, such as firearms, explosives, knives, vehicle-rammings, or Molotov cocktails.
 
• Official Warnings: In September 2025, the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) issued a memo to law enforcement confirming that these recent calls demonstrate al-Qaeda's persistent and enduring threat to the country.
 
NCTC BACKGROUND
 
The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) issues various internal and public documents, including strategic guidance like National Security Memorandums (NSMs) and National Strategies for Counterterrorism focusing on whole-of-government approaches, partner collaboration, and shifting away from large-scale nation-building to focus on specific threats, while also providing intelligence and training resources for first responders and local authorities. These memos and strategies guide U.S. counterterrorism efforts by integrating intelligence, planning operations, and sharing information across agencies.
 
Key Types of NCTC Memos & Guidance:
 
• National Security Memorandums (NSMs):Directives like the October 2022 NSM redefined U.S. counterterrorism by emphasizing collaboration with local partners and reducing focus on nation-building.
 
• National Strategies for Counterterrorism:Broad frameworks outlining how the U.S. uses all instruments of power (diplomatic, military, intelligence, etc.) to counter threats, as detailed in documents like the 2023 Strategy.
 
****• Intelligence Products:
 
NCTC produces classified and unclassified intelligence, including threat assessments (e.g., Al-Qaeda calls for attacks in 2025), for various stakeholders.
 
• Resource Guides: Publicly available toolkits for first responders, detailing suspicious activity reporting (SARs), intelligence access, and security protocols.
 
Core Functions & Purpose:
 
• Integration: NCTC serves as the central hub for all terrorism-related information, bridging foreign and domestic intelligence.
 
• Planning: Develops strategic and operational plans for counterterrorism activities, ensuring a unified government effort.
 
• Information Sharing: Maintains the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment (TIDE) and facilitates information flow.
 
• Guidance: Directs agencies on priorities and ensures intelligence operations align with national objectives.
 
NCTC REPORT (SEPT. 2025)
 
Multiple sources confirm these reports are available as PDFs, including official government websites like DNI.gov and the House Homeland Security Committee website.
 
The memo urged government officials to avoid surveillance, to not post or publicly share details about travel plans, schedules and locations, and to remove badges and other forms of identification outside of work.
 
It also warned of potential threats to targets that draw large crowds including sport and music events and urged law enforcement presence at those events along with organizing pre-event briefings on security measures.
 
A report by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued late last year that evaluated different types of threats
(https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/24_0930_ia_24-320-ia-publication-2025-hta-final-30sep24-508.pdf) to the United States, said al Qaeda was committed to striking the U.S. and had "reinvigorated its outreach" to Western audiences.
 
The NCTC, under the control of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, was created in 2004. It said information it was sharing with law enforcement will give them tools to combat targeting attempts by al Qaeda.
 
Conclusions:
 
Sarah Adams, former CIA targeter, Lt. Col Scott Mann, Legend, Bill Archer, The Transatlantic Intelligence Consortium, the Gathering Storm analysts, GRAY ZONE BRIEF, General Flynn, Raymond Ibrahim, IDF military intelligence officers and a plethora of others have been warning of October 7th style multiple-city attacks here in the U.S., since the beginning of 2024.
 
For two years we have all heeded the call and recognized the duty to warn.
 
***This brief is not designed to promote panic — the sole intent of this Intel product is to promote preparedness.
 
The duty to warn phase is over. The pragmatic thing to do now, is to train to respond and recover.
 
Self Defense:
 
I’m not saying head to the gun range. If you carry, you should be carrying all the time and you should remain vigilant. You should be responsible and ready at ALL times.
 
Medical:
 
CPR/FA, stop the bleed classes, knowing how to assess, mitigate and apply interventions, such as tourniquets, chest seals, pressure bandages, hemostatic agents such as Celox or Quick Clot, how to properly dress a wound and knowing how to set up a CCP (Casualty Collection Point) and training to deal with a mass casualty event is imperative. CERT trainjng, M.A.R.C.H. assessments, TCCC or TECC courses are valuable training.
 
Communications:
 
GMRS, HAM radio training and equipment are invaluable. If you don’t have communications, you are not going to achieve aid, assistance or success — you’re a liability, not an asset. Getting equipment is good, getting training to use it is imperative. Intel is disseminated through comms. Intel drives the fight. If you don’t know what’s going on and you can’t communicate to others what’s going on, failure is imminent.
 
Addendum: It is recommended that in when you experience grid failure, you have up to 60 days of stored food and water for yourself and your family.
Have a waste disposal plan, have a plan to defend your family.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Build resilient communities.
 
—END REPORT