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Title: February 3, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 3 FEBRUARY 2026
 
U.S. - INDIA TRADE DEAL
 
The United States and India have struck a trade deal U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday, ending a monthslong stalemate in bilateral trade talks even as foreign powers are trying to lessen their economic dependence on Washington.
Effective immediately, the United States will reduce the total U.S. tariffs on India from 50 percent to 18 percent—eliminating the 25 percent duty imposed on New Delhi for its continued purchasing of Russian oil and reducing Trump’s 25 percent reciprocal tariff by 7 percentage points.
 
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday. “Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward.”
 
In exchange, India will cut its duties on U.S. goods to zero and will commit to “buy American” at a higher level, including by investing more than $500 billion in U.S. agriculture, coal, energy, and technology, among others. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Modi posted on X.
 
Trade talks between the two countries stalled last year over India’s refusal to stop purchasing Russian crude. Even after the United States imposed secondary tariffs last August to try and pressure New Delhi to terminate its relationship with Moscow, India continued importing roughly 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil each day, according to global trade data tracker Kpler.
 
But new pressure on the United States in the form of last week’s “mother of all deals” between India and the European Union may have incentivized the White House to reignite trade talks. After nearly 20 years, Brussels and New Delhi clinched a monumental free trade agreement last Tuesday that aimed to decrease both economies’ dependence on the United States. They join a larger shift in global trade policy similarly working to counter Trump’s trade war.
 
**NOTE: Monday’s U.S.-India deal appears to be a direct response to that growing trend, as Trump attempts to walk a line between his strong-arm trade policies and his reluctance to isolate the U.S. economy from its biggest partners.
 
This is a big deal and worth paying attention to as this will no doubt contribute to the decline of the Russian Federation — which had already started, but really went into high gear with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
 
CHINA’S RENMINBI AMBITIONS
 
**Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status**
 
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has called for the renminbi to become a global reserve currency, outlining his clearest vision yet for elevating China’s role in the international monetary system. Writing in the Communist Party journal Qiushi, Xi said Beijing must build a “powerful currency” supported by a strong central bank, globally competitive financial institutions, and influential financial centers. The comments come as global markets reassess reliance on the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical and trade tensions. While the renminbi has expanded its role in trade finance, it remains marginal in global reserves, highlighting the significant reforms analysts say China would need to achieve Xi’s ambition.
 
NOTE:**This is also fueling some "pundits" talking points about China out to destroy America. Note the final statement that this is not an overnight achievement and that it will not replace the dollar.
 
FRANCE SEIZES RUSSIAN SHADOW FLEET TANKER
 
France has seized a shadow fleet tanker suspected of carrying sanctioned oil under a false flag and has taken it to Marseille. Should this ship be formally impounded, the entirety of the shadow fleet would fall.
 
If a precedent is set here, everyone could begin detaining similar vessels. And it wouldn't be hard to rapidly clear the waters of these vessels via major maritime choke points. A maritime services firm has kindly offered to legally take possession of seized shadow fleet ships and dismantle them (most of these floating rust-buckets should have been scrapped years ago, but instead were used to evade sanctions).
 
So, the shadow fleet could fall within months, but that creates a new series of problems. That's 5 million barrels per day of crude going offline very quickly, possibly causing global energy markets to become volatile.
 
**NOTE: The Trump administration and the “drill baby drill” policies being laid out for more harvesting of fossil fuels won’t fill that gap alone.
 
But the genius of the current administration’s recent snatch and grab of Maduro and forcing regime change — or at least cooperation with his replacement coupled with repairing the oil & gas infrastructure and putting it to 100% production back online from its current single digit production capacity, will have a huge impact.
 
Also, the recent decision by the high court in Panama to cooperate with the U.S. and effectively take power and control if ports and the canal itself, will have a major impact in filling that void.
 
PANAMA CANAL UPDATE
 
**Maersk to Temporarily Operate Panama Canal Ports After Court Ruling**
 
Danish shipping giant Maersk will assume temporary control of the Balboa and Cristobal ports on the Panama Canal after Panama’s Supreme Court ruled that concessions held by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings were unconstitutional. President José Raúl Mulino assured that operations will continue without disruption while a new bidding process is organized. The decision followed an audit alleging financial irregularities in the 2021 renewal of CK Hutchison’s 25-year concession. The United States welcomed the ruling as advancing its goal of limiting Chinese influence over the strategic waterway, while Beijing vowed to defend its companies’ interests.
 
CHINESE MINING COMPANY IN NICARAGUA
 
**Chinese mining company seizes property from residents of Rosita. “We feel Defenseless, ” residents complain.**  
 
During the last few weeks, men and women dressed in orange vests, identified as workers of the Chinese mining company Santa Rita Mining Company Sociedad Anónima, have entered the properties of farmers to demarcate them in the mining town of Rosita, in the North Caribbean of Nicaragua, according to those affected. One of the victims, who agreed to speak under the pseudonym “Pedro,” stated that the fences surrounding their land are torn down and a boundary marker is placed to indicate that their property has been reduced because “the other part” belongs to the company.
 
IRAN & THE EU MILITARY
 
**Iran classes EU armies as terrorist groups** - The speaker of Iran's parliament said on Sunday that Tehran now sees all European Union militaries as terrorist groups. The announcement by Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf comes after the EU declared Iran's paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization over its violent suppression of nationwide anti-government protests.
 
BALOCHISTAN
 
**Deadly gun and bomb attacks hit Pakistan's Balochistan province**  
 
A series of gun and bomb attacks across Pakistan's south-western Balochistan province have killed 31 civilians and 17 security service personnel, the region's Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti says. Security forces responding to the violence killed at least 145 attackers, according to Bugti. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) rebel group had earlier said it was behind the attacks, claiming dozens of soldiers were killed.
 
INDIA: TERRORISM
 
**Manipur, India: Kuki Revolutionary Army leader and PREPAK cadre arrested in joint operations**  
 
A joint team of Central security forces and Manipur Police arrested a leader of the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA) and a cadre of the banned Revolutionary People’s Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) during operations across two districts in Manipur, officials reported on Sunday. The individuals were apprehended with arms and ammunition over the past 48 hours. In the first phase of the operation, Manipur Police arrested a self-styled Sergeant Major of the KRA, identified as Lamginlal Chongloi (36), a resident of New Saikul village, from the Saikul–Keitheimanbi bridge area in Kangpokpi district.
 
SYRIA
 
**Syria arrests group behind Mezzeh airport attacks, weapons traced to Hezbollah **- Syrian authorities said they have arrested a group responsible for repeated rocket strikes on Damascus’s Mezzeh military airport, with investigators tracing the recovered weapons to Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Interior Ministry reported that security units detained all suspects after monitoring several launch sites around the capital and seized drones allegedly prepared for future attacks. Hezbollah denied any involvement, saying it has no active presence in Syria. Security officials suggested the weapons may have come from stockpiles left behind after Hezbollah’s partial withdrawal. The arrests follow months of escalating security incidents near Damascus amid shifting regional alliances.
 
AFRICOM AIRSTRIKES IN SOMALIA
 
**Rising ISIS threats to US homeland drive AFRICOM airstrikes against terrorists in Somalia**- The U.S. is mounting an increasing blitz of air attacks and military missions against Islamist terrorists in Somalia to reduce the threat of jihadi attacks on the U.S. homeland. The terrorists are said to be mainly affiliated with Islamic State (ISIS) or al Qaeda. This is according to U.S. Army Lt. Gen. John Brennan, the second highest-ranking officer at U.S. Africa Command, who talked exclusively last week to Fox News Digital. Brennan, a former U.S. Special Forces leader who served in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, confirmed, "There's ISIS-inspired threats. They plot against the United States homeland as well as Europe. So that's kind of the nexus of the threat." In Somalia, the Islamic State is represented by ISIS-Somalia. "We've had a lot of success targeting that network, ISIS-Somalia," he said. The focus of Islamist terror has moved from the Middle East to Africa, and specifically to Somalia, Brennan told Fox News Digital. "The caliph — absolute leader — of the global ISIS network, Abdulqadir Mumin, is a Somali, and he is in the (Somali) Golis Mountains along with a lot of his key leaders. And from that location they direct terrorist activities, not just across Africa. He is directing global ISIS operations that go to the Far East, Europe and the U.S."
 
GZB INFOCUS: CHINA EMBEDDED IN ARCTIC
 
• Russia, despite all the horrible things it does, is not able to challenge Canada without its partner. Carney was quick to name China as the biggest security threat to his country during a federal election debate last April. At Davos, however, he was not willing to talk about China posing a danger to his country.
 
• Carney had it right the first time: Canada's top threat is China.
 
• At the top of the world, Russia and China are close partners.
 
• China is now studying and surveying Arctic waters to help its submarines both navigate and evade detection.
 
• Beijing has had Canada in its sights for a long time, and it has not limited its threatening activities to the seas.
 
• “Canada's underfunding stems from post-Cold War complacency, reliance on the U.S., and prioritization of social programs over military defense." — Charles Burton, Sinopsis think tank, to Gatestone, January 2026.
 
**NOTE: This is exactly why Greenland is strategically imperative to North America — the U.S. and Canada. China has been waging unrestricted warfare on the U.S.in the grey zone for decades. Most Americans are to distracted by mainstream media junk info and uneducated in foreign policy to grasp the big picture threat posed by China’s “Tian Xa” (All Under Heaven) Global Order ambitions to replace the U.S. as the World Superpower. The Belt Road Initiative is just one facet of that. China’s Arctic Silk Road is a strategic piece in that plan.
 
We cannot have Chinese submarines with freedom of navigation to traverse through Arctic waters with impunity, unchecked.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.

 
— END REPORT

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