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Title: November 17, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 17 NOVEMBER 2025

DOMESTIC SITREP

JIHADIST TERROR THREAT

Over the past few weeks, America has grappled with a surge in domestic jihadist activity, from affluent New Jersey suburbs to Michigan’s Arab-American heartland. Federal arrests dismantled two ISIS-inspired cells: one in Montclair, where privileged teens posed with swords under black flags and plotted mass beheadings of Jews, and another in Dearborn, where Halloween raids uncovered AR-15 caches and scouting notes for attacks on LGBT venues and amusement parks. These cases signal a disturbing radicalization pipeline thriving in plain sight.

Meanwhile, foreign influence and organized extremism bled into streets and campuses alike. Border Patrol agents in Chicago endured gunfire, vehicle rammings, and rooftop brick attacks while enforcing immigration laws, with DHS pointing to sanctuary-city rhetoric as fuel for Antifa-linked mobs. On college quads, university leaders testified that Iran bankrolled and scripted anti-Israel unrest, importing Hamas playbooks through third-party networks. The common thread is clear: ideological violence, whether homegrown or state-sponsored, is testing the nation’s resolve.

NEW JERSEY

Jihadi Trio Uncovered in Affluent NJ Suburb

• Federal documents reveal three 19-year-olds from privileged backgrounds–Tomas Kaan Jimenez-Guzel (son of a UN diplomat), Milo Sedarat (son of an Iranian-American poet), and Saed Ali Mirreh–allegedly formed an ISIS-inspired cell in Montclair, N.J., posing with swords and knives in front of ISIS flags.

• The group ranted in private chats about beheading "infidels," executing "500 Jews," enslaving their families, and mowing down a pro-Israel march with a vehicle. Jimenez-Guzel shared a "KILL THEM SILENTLY" manifesto urging silent knife, axe, or car attacks on Christians and Jews.

• Court filings detail boasts of becoming "one of the most 100 evil people in the world," pledges of allegiance to ISIS, plans to travel to Syria via Turkey for jihad, and discussions of producing propaganda videos featuring throat-slitting executions to gain infamy.

• Jimenez-Guzel was arrested on November 5, 2025, at Newark Airport en route to Istanbul; Mirreh was detained a day earlier in Washington state. All three face federal charges of conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization, carrying up to 20 years in prison.

MICHIGAN

Halloween Terror Plot Uncovered

• Three men, Ayob Nasser (19), Mohmed Ali (20), and Majed Mahmoud (20), from Dearborn, Mich., face federal charges for conspiring to provide material support to ISIS and possessing firearms for terrorism. They are part of a larger group of eight, including two juveniles, arrested in an FBI probe that uncovered an alleged domestic terror plot.

• The group planned ISIS-inspired assaults on LGBT-friendly clubs in Ferndale and Cedar Point amusement park during Halloween weekend, involving five co-conspirators who trained with AR-15 rifles, stockpiled tactical gear, and scouted sites, as detailed in unsealed complaints by U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi.

• On November 10, 2025, the suspects appeared in Detroit federal court, waived detention hearings, and consented to jail while their cases proceed. The probe began in 2024, leading to Halloween raids on Dearborn homes and an Inkster storage unit where weapons were seized.

NEW YORK

Viral Video Shows Muslims Declaring 'New York for Islam'

• A viral video from New York in the wake of Mamdani's victory shows Muslim rally with the speaker urging his followers to spread Islam across every district of the city, proclaiming that "This is the correct relegion that all humanity needs to be a part of," and “We will not stop until Islam enters every home.”

NEO-MARXIST EXTREMISM

CHICAGO

Shots Fired at Border Patrol Agents in Chicago

• On Saturday, November 8, 2025, U.S. Border Patrol agents conducting immigration enforcement in Chicago's Little Village neighborhood faced a barrage of domestic terror attacks over less than three hours, including multiple rounds fired at them from a Jeep, bricks and a paint can thrown from rooftops, and four separate vehicle ramming attempts amid hostile crowds and protesters.

• The incidents escalated with protesters lying in the streets, throwing objects, and attempting to breach an FBI facility. Chicago Police assisted in evacuations and perimeter security, while agents used crowd control measures and a controlled tire deflation device to stop one ramming vehicle. No agents were injured, but convoy vehicles sustained broken windows and other damage.

• Eight U.S. citizens and one illegal alien were arrested, including one driver for ramming and three suspects for assault in a Sam's Club parking lot. The Jeep shooter and one final ramming driver remain at large, with DHS labeling the violence as "unprecedented" against federal law enforcement.

IRAN FOI (Foreign Influence Operations)

MISSOURI

University Leaders Link Campus Protests to Iranian Influence

• Chancellors from Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Washington University in St. Louis testified that anti-Israel campus unrest was driven by "organized networks" including Iran, with Syracuse's Kent Syverud stating the demonstrations were "encouraged from Iran" and involved few local students. Vanderbilt's Daniel Diermeier described it as an "imported" playbook coordinated by external forces.

• Former Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines confirmed in July 2024 that Iran provided financial support to protesters. Lawsuits allege Hamas coordination with U.S. campus groups, including a Columbia University "propaganda arm" distributing a "Day of Resistance Toolkit" on October 8, 2023, promoting Hamas materials and unified resistance under militant command.

• Panelists urged congressional investigations into non-governmental and foreign entities fueling protests, with Diermeier emphasizing the need for a fuller picture of external influences. Leaders highlighted countering pro-terrorist rhetoric like "globalize the intifada" as part of combating antisemitism on campuses.

TENNESSEE & DC

New Legislation Aims to Shut Down Foreign Influence Of Elections

• New legislation from Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) would shut down numerous loopholes that allow foreign nationals to sway American politics, according to election integrity experts.

• A bill introduced by Hagerty would ban foreign nationals from funding ballot initiative proposal campaigns, voter registration activity, ballot collection, voter identification, and other get-out-the-vote activity.

• Recently, Americans for Public Trust put out a report documenting how five foreign charities have given around $2 billion to American climate groups engaged in policy fights, litigation, research, and lobbying

WAR DEPARTMENT REVAMPS PRIORITIES

BLUF: Emil Michael's plan emphasizes rapid sprints to move emerging technologies from prototype to production

The War Department is narrowing its research and development strategy to six "Critical Technology Areas" officials say will speed up innovation and strengthen America’s military edge.

Under Secretary of War for Research and Engineering Emil Michael said the plan will deliver faster, more focused results to the warfighter by merging overlapping programs and steering funding toward technologies that will shape future conflicts.

"As the Department of War’s Chief Technology Officer, I am statutorily charged with the mission of advancing technology and innovation for the armed forces," Michael wrote in a Nov. 13 memorandum to senior Pentagon and combatant command leadership. "The previous list of fourteen CTAs did not provide the focus that the threat environment of today requires."

The six areas — Applied Artificial Intelligence, Biomanufacturing, Contested Logistics Technologies, Quantum and Battlefield Information Dominance, Scaled Directed Energy and Scaled Hypersonics — will be advanced through rapid "sprints" designed to move emerging technologies from prototype to production.

Why It Matters:

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the streamlined approach will keep the United States ahead of its rivals.

"Our nation’s military has always been the tip of the spear," Hegseth said. "Under Secretary Emil Michael’s six Critical Technology Areas will ensure that our warriors never enter a fair fight and have the best systems in their hands for maximum lethality."

The initiative also aligns with President Donald Trump’s Artificial Intelligence Action Plan, which directs the War Department to become an "AI-First" organization.

Officials say the shift will reshape how intelligence is processed, how logistics are managed and how weapons systems are deployed.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

ISW Key Takeaways:

• Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: Iraq’s electoral commission, the Independent High Electoral Commission, released the final results and associated seat allocations from the November 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections on November 17. The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court must ratify the results before the government formation process can formally begin.

• Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: The Shia Coordination Framework is debating whether to include Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani in the next Iraqi government, amid reports that Sudani may ally with Sunni and Kurdish political parties.

• Tanker Seizure in the Strait of Hormuz: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media claimed on November 15 that the IRGC Navy seized the Marshall Islands-flagged Talara tanker because it was attempting to illegally export Iranian cargo. This claim likely seeks to obfuscate the real reason why the IRGC Navy seized the vessel and may be part of an Iranian effort to prevent any retaliation for the seizure.

• Syrian-Russian Relations: A Russian and Turkish military delegation toured former Russian military sites near United Nations Disengagement Observer Force positions located along the Syrian border with the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on November 17. The Russian and Turkish delegation’s tour may be related to previous discussions between Syria and Russia about establishing a Russian military presence in southern Syria.

GZB INFOCUS: Mapped: Population Change in North American Cities (2005-2024)

Key Takeaways:

• Charlotte experienced the fastest growth at 93%, rising from 1.5 to 2.9 million residents—the highest percentage gain among major Canadian and U.S. cities.

• Western and southern metros like Phoenix (+33%) and Orlando (+53%) outpaced northern U.S. counterparts such as New York (+6%) and Chicago (0%), underscoring a southward population shift.

Over the past two decades, cities in North America have seen diverging demographic paths.

Cities in the southern and western regions have seen explosive growth, while many northern U.S. metros have expanded at a far slower pace—or even plateaued or declined.

This visualization shows the population change of 25 major North American metro areas between July 2005 and July 2024, both total and percentage changes over the 19-year span using data from the U.S. Census, StatCan, St. Louis Fed via Hanif Bayat.

The Fastest-Growing Cities in the U.S. and Canada Since 2005

Charlotte leads population growth among major North American cities with an astounding 93% population increase, rising from 1.5 to 2.9 million residents.

Orlando follows at 53%, with Texas metros like Houston (+50%) and Dallas (+43%) ranking third and fourth.

Houston and Dallas have the highest absolute population growth of major American and Canadian cities since 2005 at 2.6 and 2.5 million people respectively.

Canadian Cities’ Population Growth Since 2005

All three of Canada’s major cities (Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal) had double-digit population growth in percentage terms.

Vancouver’s population rose from 2.2 to 3.1 million, marking a 41% increase, while Toronto expanded more on an absolute basis with 1.9 million new residents, marking 37% growth since 2005.

Montreal’s population grew by 0.8 million people from 2005 to 2024, which was a 21% increase.

Slower Population Growth in the North and Midwest U.S.

Major northern U.S. metros have lagged behind. New York grew just 6%, from 18.7 to 19.8 million people, while Chicago’s population has remained flat over the past two decades.

Detroit was the only city which saw its population decline, with a loss of 0.1 million residents or around a 2% decline in percentage terms.

These slower, flat, and declining population growth rates reflect broader economic shifts—manufacturing decline, high housing costs, and limited land availability—that have pushed growth southward.

This is beyond just these specific cities, as all three states (New York, Illinois, and Michigan) saw their populations decline from 2020 to 2023.

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—END REPORT