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Title: October 18, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 18 OCTOBER 2025

U.S. & MOSCOW

Trump and Putin. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held their first call in two months. The conversation, initiated by Moscow, focused primarily on the conflict in Ukraine, including, according to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov Washington’s possible supply of Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. Putin insisted that the transfer of these missiles to Ukraine would not affect the situation on the front lines but would deteriorate relations between the U.S. and Russia. They agreed to in-person talks in Budapest, although no date was set. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he plans to speak by phone with Putin on Friday.

HAMAS

Sounding the alarm. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are reportedly concerned about the future of the Gaza peace deal. According to Israeli daily Israel Hayom the countries have warned other governments about Hamas’ conduct since the deal took effect, including its targeting of rival groups for violent attacks and extortion attempts. They also point to the failure of the mediators – Egypt, Qatar and Turkey – to push Hamas toward disarmament.

ISRAEL & GAZA’S YELLOW LINE

Clear line. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered the Israeli military to clearly mark the so-called yellow line in Gaza behind which troops have withdrawn in accordance with the ceasefire deal. These markers will act as a warning that “any violation or attempt to cross the line will be met with fire.” This comes after the military in recent days killed several Palestinians who had allegedly crossed these positions.

U.S. — SAUDI DEFENSE PACT

Defense ties. The United States and Saudi Arabia are in talks on a defense agreement similar to the U.S.-Qatar pact signed last month, the Financial Times reported the deal could be signed during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the U.S. in November. In the Qatar agreement, Washington pledged to treat any attack on the country as a threat to the United States.

U.S. — GUYANESE OIL TO INDIA

New supplier. Two Indian refineries purchased 4 million barrels of Guyanese crude oil for the first time from U.S.-based Exxon Mobil. The move is likely an effort to diversify India's oil supplies amid U.S. pressure to cut purchases from Russia. Guyana, meanwhile, is increasing its oil exports as production by an Exxon-led consortium has soared to 770,000 barrels per day following the launch of the group’s fourth floating production unit.

THE U.S. & MY TWO FAVORITE STANS

Central Asia connections. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick spoke by videoconference with Uzbek Minister of Investment, Industry, and Trade Laziz Kudratov. They discussed expanding cooperation on trade, investment, industry, energy, digital technology, and transport and innovation infrastructure. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister held meetings with members of the U.S. Congress in Washington.

GAZA

Rebuilding Gaza. The Palestinian Authority has unveiled a five-year plan for Gaza’s reconstruction totaling $67 billion. It covers 18 sectors, including housing, health care, the economy and public administration. The plan is organized in three phases: emergency assistance, reconstruction of buildings and restoration of institutions, and long-term reconstruction and sustainable development.

TURKEY, SYRIA & RUSSIA

Ankara's support. Turkey believes the Syrian government should decide for itself how to conduct its bilateral relations with Russia, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported, citing sources in the Turkish Foreign Ministry. The sources emphasized that Ankara has advocated “bilateral relations based on mutual respect and consideration.” In his first visit to Moscow earlier this week, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa told Putin that he would honor all past deals between his country and Russia.

TEHRAN IN THE KREMLIN

Iran and Russia. The secretary of Iran’s Security Council, Ali Larijani, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. According to Iranian media, Larijani delivered a message to Putin from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the contents of which have not been disclosed. They also discussed bilateral relations, including economic cooperation, as well as regional and international issues.

QATAR

Mediation. Qatar has reportedly invited representatives from the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban governments to Doha for talks following recent clashes at the Pakistani-Afghan border.

GZB INFOCUS: America’s Fastest-Growing States (2025-2050F)

Key Takeaways:

• The population of Texas is projected to grow by 8.6 million by 2050, rising by 28%.

• West Virginia’s population is forecast to decline 15%, the biggest decrease across states.

Over the next 25 years, Texas is projected to gain 8.6 million residents, the highest absolute increase across states.

Like Texas, Florida and California are projected to lead nationally in population gains, adding 5.2 million and 3.1 million people, respectively. In comparison, 18 states are projected to shrink.

This graphic shows America’s fastest-growing states by 2050, based on forecasts from the University of Virginia.

The Data Behind the Fastest-Growing States

Between now and 2050, the U.S. is projected to grow 9%, adding nearly 32 million people to its population.

However, growth across states is forecast to vary widely. Utah, for instance, is set to grow nearly four times faster than the national average, at 35%. Meanwhile, West Virginia’s population is set to contract 15%.

Notably, North Dakota, Idaho, and Washington D.C. are all projected to see 30% growth over the period.

At the same time, nine states are expected to grow their populations by over 1 million residents, including Georgia and North Carolina. When it comes to New York, the population is set to grow just 4%, adding around 820,000 people—far lower than other populous states.

On the other hand, Illinois is set to see the sharpest absolute decline, losing 1.1 million residents.

With migration slowing and fertility levels declining as the population ages, America’s growth is projected to slow over the coming decades. In fact, 25% of Maine and Florida’s populations are projected to be 65 years or older by 2050.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT