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Title: Is There A China Power Struggle

GRAY ZONE MORNING BRIEF

14 JULY 2025

CHINA: THE SITREP FROM THE ANALYST RUMOR MILL

Rumors say mighty Xi Jinping will lose his Communist Party and Chinese state posts in the next few months. There is, however, also a large group of China watchers and academics who say that little or nothing is out of place and Xi is fine.

Whatever the truth, the U.S. and other countries need to prepare for the regime to lash out without warning. Xi may now have reason to take the world by surprise.

There are clear signs that Xi has lost control of the People's Liberation Army, the most important faction in the Communist Party of China. A series of articles, beginning on July 9 of last year, in PLA Daily, the military's main propaganda organ, praised (https://jamestown.org/program/pla-factions-and-the-erosion-of-xis-power-over-the-military/)"collective"collective) leadership," a clear criticism of Xi's one-man style of rule. At the same time, many of Xi's loyalists were removed from their posts.

The most prominent of those removed was Xi's No. 1 hatchet man, General He Weidong, last seen in public on March 11.

Some believe the general, the No. 2 uniformed officer, was "suicided (https://x.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1926087099347853562?s=61)" in May in the military's 301 Hospital in Beijing, at about the same time that another Xi supporter, General He Hongjun, was also reportedly killed.

There are also indications that Xi has lost the support of senior civilian officials. His absence (https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/05/china/brics-summit-china-xi-absence-intl-hnk) from the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in early July -- the first time he had skipped this event as China's leader -- sparked talk that either he was in so much trouble that he felt he had to stay close to Beijing or that others in the leadership had prevented him from leaving the country.

Analysts who closely track the Communist Party — today's version of the Cold War's Kremlinologists — have noticed that state and Party media, from late April to late June, portrayed Xi in a diminished role. For instance, Charles Burton of the Prague-based Sinopsis think tank, pointed out that Xi at a Communist Party symposium on June 13 was publicly forced to praise "collective leadership," another sign that he had lost influence.

Nonetheless, many academics and veteran China watchers think that nothing unusual has occurred. "Much of the speculation about Xi's political misfortunes relies on unsubstantiated rumors or glaring ignorance of context," writes (https://sinoinsider.com/2025/06/xi-is-losing-power-or-is-he/) SinoInsider, a New York-based China consultancy, in a widely circulated June 25 analysis. "In some cases, a cursory look at the so-called 'signs' reveals them to be entirely normal occurrences. In other cases, there are simpler and more convincing explanations for developments regarded as unusual."

At the moment, there is great disagreement among China analysts about whether the Party's Politburo had issued rules, publicized (https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202506/content_7030021.htm) on June 30, to restrict Xi's powers over internal commissions and groups. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post carried a piece suggesting (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3317101/new-communist-party-rules-hint-chinas-xi-jinping-delegating-more-power-deputies) that Xi himself initiated the rules because he wanted to delegate power.

Strongman Xi is not known for delegating power, but in any event, there are too many out-of-the-ordinary events this year to explain away. "Where there's smoke, there's fire," Burton, who served as a Canadian diplomat in Beijing, told Gatestone this month. "Xi is obviously in some sort of trouble. The smoke keeps pouring out."

What does all this mean for the rest of the world?

If Xi is indeed weakened and has accepted his fate, the consequences for other countries are unlikely to be great. There are reports that Xi's mother in early June hosted a lunch for Party elders, during which she negotiated her son's safe withdrawal from the regime. If that rumor is true, a power transition in Beijing should prove to be relatively smooth.

If Xi is still in command and is as strong as ever, he would have no additional incentive to disrupt the status quo.

The world is at great risk, however, if Xi is now engaged in no-holds-barred fighting for his political life. In this case — the most probable in my view — he might feel he has every reason to stop at nothing to save himself. He could, for example, trigger a confrontation or start a war, not to rally the Chinese people — at the moment China's people do not want war — but to prevent other senior Communist Party figures from challenging him.

Xi probably does not have the power to order the military to launch major operations, such as an invasion of the main island of Taiwan, but he can trigger a war.

For instance, he could, through his other channels, activate networks of Chinese agents in the United States, giving them the go-signal to bring down power lines, poison reservoirs, bomb shopping centers, start wildfires and kill Americans in the streets.

It is apparent that Chinese agents are now in place in America. Toward the end of the Biden administration, U.S. Border Patrol officers noticed packs of military-aged Chinese males coming from Mexico, all outfitted in identical kit. Border Patrol apparently knew (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jun/14/chinese-may-be-inserting-military-operatives-throu/) that some pack members had links to the Chinese military. In addition, Border Patrol suspects that China's military was orchestrating the infiltration.

The flood of suspicious Chinese illegal immigrants coincided with a marked increase by Chinese nationals attempting to gain entry onto American military bases. There has also been an accompanying uptick in these nationals illicitly surveilling those facilities. China is obviously studying patterns and searching for vulnerabilities. This is preparation for attack.

Why would Xi Jinping order an attack? Perhaps to show other Communist Party figures that he has the strength to take on the United States — or to create a crisis during which no one would dare to depose him.

Much of this is speculation. None of it is within our sphere of control — except how we react to it. We “Red Cell” and Table Top scenarios for a reason. Are you prepared for a worst case outcome involving grid attacks, or the hacking of prominent financial institutions?

What about if ATMs were offline for only 4 days — do you have cash in hand? What if gas stations and grocery stores were shut down for 4 days, can you mitigate that? Do you have enough drinking water, washing water and flushing the toilet water on hand to survive for a week?

How long does it take for people to freak out because they cannot recharge their devices, have no phone, PC, laptop or iPad?

Do you have solar film or a power brick to charge devices?

Will all the food in your fridge or freezer go bad because you don’t have a back up power generator?

One period of darkness is all it takes for the thin veneer of civilization to be peeled off and riots, looting and chaos to ensue.

Whether it’s Al Qaeda/ISIS carrying out carrying Oct. 7th style terror attacks, IRGC Terror cells seeking to do harm, Russian assets in the Gray Zone using Cold War tactics, North Korean hackers, or a Chinese covert operation — or even the Los Angeles fires, a Hurricane in North Carolina, a flood in Texas or a tragic shooting at a church like in Lexington, Kentucky yesterday — most of these are things that will happen — some may be thankfully avoided, but it’s not just the first layer solution of beans, bullets and bandaids that matters — it’s having a TEAM! As LTC Scott Mann says, it’s “Making Human Connections Like Your Life Depends On It!”

Not online, on the internet of things — but within your own community, face to face with real people. The idea that if shit pops off you are going to somehow “lone wolf” it and come out unscathed on the other end isn’t realistic. And wouldn’t you want to have a team of highly skilled and trained assets to help people locally? To assist local LEO and first responders or even your State’s Army National Guard?

Everyone is an SME (Subject Matter Expert), everyone has a superpower, everyone can be an asset. C.E.R.T./ FEMA Teams can be built, communities can network — but no one is coming to save you.

You have to put in the work and build it yourself. That’s what people in my community did — and 5 years later, we have a great team of 60 auxiliary assets to our county and our state. If you plan on doing something like we did, you need to get started on this yesterday — and my biggest piece of advice — start it off with prayer to lay the foundation of your success.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT-