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Title: October 21, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 21 OCTOBER 2025

TRUMP, COLOMBIA & VENEZUELA

Trump calls Colombia’s Petro an ‘illegal drug leader’ and announces tariffs and an end to US aid. The United States will slash assistance to Colombia and enact tariffs on its exports because the country’s leader, Gustavo Petro, “does nothing to stop” drug production, President Donald Trump said Sunday, escalating the friction between Washington and one of its closest allies in Latin America.

Why this matters:

• In a social media post, Trump referred to Petro as “an illegal drug leader” who is “low rated and very unpopular.” The Republican president warned that Petro “better close up” drug operations “or the United States will close them up for him, and it won’t be done nicely.” Petro rejected Trump’s accusations and defended his work to fight narcotics in Colombia, the world’s largest exporter of cocaine.

• Petro and Trump have been at odds over American strikes on boats in the Caribbean. On Sunday, Petro accused the U.S. government of assassination, pointing to a Sept. 16 strike that he said killed a Colombian man named Alejandro Carranza. Petro said Carranza was a fisherman with no ties to drug trafficking, and his boat was malfunctioning when it was hit. The White House and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Petro’s accusations.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also announced the latest U.S. strike on a vessel that was allegedly carrying “substantial amounts of narcotics.”

Why Our Presence in the Caribbean Matters:

Much has been made of the deployment of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean, off the coast of Venezuela, to interdict and sink ships belonging to drug cartels. But less attention has been paid to Washington’s increased interest in the Caribbean generally.

The Monroe Doctrine, which was issued in the early 19th century, said that the United States would resist any intrusion of European powers in the Western Hemisphere. This policy was the basis under which the U.S. acted against the Soviet presence in Cuba and, in the 1980s, was engaged in funding the Contras in Nicaragua. Both instances were presented as based on fundamental geopolitical U.S. interests. The Monroe Doctrine also said that the U.S. would not engage in Europe, a principle that was broken with some reluctance in the world wars and the Cold War.

The current fundamental policy of the United States is to disengage from Europe, not to mention the rest of the world, to the extent possible. This is based on the strategic principle that the Monroe Doctrine is the geopolitical foundation of the U.S., insulated as it is by two oceans. Given the doctrine and the policy of disengagement, it follows that the U.S. will oppose intrusion from outside powers throughout the Western Hemisphere.

The right to national self-determination was, of course, dismissed by President James Monroe; the doctrine implicitly meant the U.S. would intervene in South and Central America without the consent of South and Central American governments. In short, the Monroe Doctrine was both an imperial dictate and a geopolitical necessity for U.S. national security.

It is in this context that we must consider U.S. actions in the Caribbean. The U.S. used the Monroe Doctrine to justify its military interventions in Latin America throughout the Cold War, and especially in the 1980s. The interventions had two dimensions: covert operations against drug cartels and, most notably, the Soviet presence in Cuba.

A significant portion of U.S. activity was triggered by the fact that the Soviet Union was engaged in covert operations designed to destabilize Latin American countries and, if possible, create pro-Soviet regimes. In some of these cases, the Soviets supplied cartels with weapons advisers to capitalize on the weakening of government power. The U.S. countered with its own covert operations designed to block Soviet efforts and to intervene against the cartels, in Colombia, for example. Many of Moscow’s operations were run out of Cuba.

But since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin has limited its engagement. Meanwhile, drug cartels grew dramatically stronger. And because Russia was less engaged with them, the U.S. reduced its engagement in kind.

To me, the present-day tensions between the U.S. and Russia have new concerns over Cuba. Moscow recently signed a new military agreement with Cuba, raising the possibility of an increased Russian presence as a response to U.S. actions in Ukraine (including the possible provision of Tomahawk missiles) that, to Russia, make Moscow vulnerable to attack. Russia's logical counter would be to renew its relationship with Cuba and place advanced weapons in Cuba.

Moreover, a presence in Cuba would put Russia in a position to expose one of America’s biggest economic liabilities. At least half of all U.S. imports and exports go through the ports of the Gulf Coast. Texas and Louisiana are of fundamental economic importance to the U.S., and if they were blocked, America’s Atlantic and Pacific ports would struggle to offset any trade shortfalls. And it wouldn’t be difficult to block: The Gulf ports have a single exit point, the Straits of Florida, located just south of Key West and spanning about 90 miles (145 kilometers) wide at their narrowest point. The straits are a necessity to the United States and are therefore of interest to the Russians.

U.S. President Donald Trump has been concerned about drug cartels. Given the current geopolitical reality, the possibility of renewed Russian relations with the cartels may be well-founded, especially in light of the recent military agreement in Cuba. U.S. policies in Ukraine make a Russian reprisal conceivable.

Assuming this analysis of the situation is correct – and it may not be – it would explain U.S. actions against Venezuela. The increased naval presence in the Caribbean provides a force to threaten Cuba from the south and north and significantly limits Russia's ability to threaten the Straits of Florida. It also deters a potential Russian naval buildup. Last, it makes Cuba think more about U.S. interest in its future. Placing Russian missiles in Cuba might threaten the U.S., but it would create an existential threat to the Cuban regime.

Again, my analysis may be wrong, but it seems to me that the Ukraine war and the fear of U.S. weapons in Ukraine have triggered a Russian counter in Cuba itself, enhancing the power of cartels that are already seen as threats to U.S. interests. This may be a signal to Russia that, in reality, it has no counter.

ISRAEL & HAMAS

Shaky ceasefire. Israel said it had conducted retaliatory strikes on several Hamas military buildings and tunnels after its forces came under fire from anti-tank missiles in Rafah. The attack reportedly killed two Israeli soldiers. Hamas denied involvement, saying it had lost contact with fighters in the area in March, and reaffirmed its commitment to implementing the ceasefire. Over the weekend, the U.S. State Department said it had warned guarantors of the peace deal that Hamas could be planning to attack civilians in Gaza. Egypt, Qatar and Turkey are reportedly working with Hamas to prevent further escalation. An anonymous U.S. official told Axios that Washington may support Israeli attempts to retake parts of Gaza in the event that Hamas continues violating the ceasefire.

TURKEY

Guarantor. Turkey is ready to serve as de facto guarantor for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said. He hailed the “historic” Gaza peace plan while warning that failure to form a Palestinian state would lead to more war.

U.S. & CHINA TRADE TALKS

Agreement to talk. Following a call between top U.S. and Chinese trade officials, Washington and Beijing agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade negotiations as soon as possible. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday that he plans to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Malaysia. The U.S. is threatening China with massive new tariffs after Beijing announced export restrictions on rare earth elements.

***Note: The U.S. military is currently as you read this,

gearing up for conflict with China over Taiwan in 2026.

AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN

More peace deals. Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to an immediate ceasefire at their border on Oct. 19 following negotiations in Doha, according to Qatar’s Foreign Ministry. The countries’ defense ministers and representatives from Qatar and Turkey signed the agreement. Talks will continue Oct. 25 in Turkey, Pakistan’s defense minister said.

RUSSIA, IRAN, PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN

Barter. Pakistan amended a barter trade mechanism with Russia, Iran and Afghanistan to facilitate transactions. The changes eliminate requirements for exports to precede imports, grant more time to complete transactions and abolish the list of restricted tradable items.

CASPIAN PARTNERSHIP

U.S. and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper. Aliyev praised Washington’s role in brokering peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. They also discussed opportunities for military and military-technical cooperation.

GZB INFOCUS:

The World’s Most Educated Populations, Across 45 Countries

Key Takeaways:

• Advanced economies such as Canada, Ireland, and South Korea have some of the highest shares of tertiary-educated adults (55–65%).

• Germany is a wealthy economy with relatively fewer university graduates, reflecting its strong apprenticeship system that provides high-skill jobs without degrees.

Which countries have the most educated populations?

Higher levels of tertiary education among a populace generally indicate greater potential for innovation and economic growth, but this isn’t always the case.

In this graphic, we visualize educational attainment by country, breaking things down into three categories: below high-school, high-school or diploma, and college or university degree.

Data & Discussion

This data comes from the OECD’s Education at a Glance 2025 report (https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/09/education-at-a-glance-2025_c58fc9ae.html). It compares educational attainment among working-age adults across 45 countries as of 2024.

Leaders in Higher Education

Canada tops the list with nearly 65% of adults holding a college or university degree, followed closely by Ireland and South Korea.

These nations have invested heavily in expanding access to higher education, driven by knowledge-based economies that reward advanced qualifications.

According to other OECD data higher levels of education bring significant earnings advantages.

For instance, across OECD nations, tertiary graduates typically earn double the income of individuals who have not completed secondary education (high school).

Balanced Education Models in Europe.

Countries like Austria and Germanydemonstrate a more balanced split between tertiary and vocational education (education related to a specific job or trade).

For example, Germany ranks 19th in the world in terms of GDP per capita despite only 34% of its adults having a university degree.

The country has a strong apprenticeship system where students combine hands-on training with theoretical learning, resulting in a high rate of employment upon graduation.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT