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Title: February 11, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 11 FEBRUARY 2026
 
EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FLIGHTS HALTED
 
The Federal Aviation Administration has grounded all flights to and from El Paso International Airport in Texas for the next 10 days, the agency announced Wednesday, warning that the U.S. government "may use deadly force" against an aircraft in violation, if it is deemed to pose "an imminent security threat."
 
All flights to and from El Paso are grounded, including commercial, cargo and general aviation. The restriction is effective from February 10 at 11:30 p.m. MST to February 20 at 11:30 p.m. MST. The FAA cited "special security reasons" for the closure, but did not elaborate.
 
The no-fly restriction applies to airspace over El Paso as well as nearby Santa Teresa, New Mexico.
 
**NOTE: the airport's proximity is close to Fort Bliss.
 
The closure resembles something like a national security event, for a high-level VIP, but not for 10 days — the interesting thing is that on the Mexican side of the border there is no flight restriction.
 
U.S. & ARMENIA
 
U.S.-Armenia ties. The United States and Armenia signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement during U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Yerevan. The deal, known as a 123 Agreement, after Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act of 1954, allows the U.S. to license nuclear technology and equipment to other countries. It will enable up to $5 billion in U.S. exports to Armenia, plus another $4 billion in maintenance and fuel contracts. The arrangement will help reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia, whose state-owned Rosatom operates its only nuclear power plant. On Monday, Armenia also announced that it has purchased V-BAT unmanned aerial vehicles from the United States.
 
EU & UKRAINE
 
Plan for Ukraine. The European Union is considering a plan that could grant Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as soon as next year, Politico reported Under the proposal, the rights and obligations that usually coincide with membership would be applied to Kyiv in phases, providing it more time to make necessary reforms as part of the accession process. A major hurdle, however, is Hungary, whose prime minister, Viktor Orban, opposes Ukraine’s membership. Some within the bloc are apparently hoping Hungarian elections in April could unseat Orban. As a last resort, the EU could try to push the U.S. president, a close ally of Orban, to compel Hungary to concede in order to reach a peace deal, or take away Hungary’s voting rights under Article 7 of the EU treaty.
 
RUSSIA DEMANDS GUARANTEES
 
**Senior Russian official says Moscow needs 'security guarantees' **-
 
The Kremlin insisted that any settlement to the war in Ukraine must include explicit security guarantees for Moscow, with Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko arguing that peace is impossible without them. Speaking on Feb. 10, Grushko asserted that Russia’s security interests must take precedence and criticized the European Union for failing to address Moscow’s concerns. He reiterated longstanding demands, including barring NATO membership for Ukraine, and rejected proposals for foreign troop deployments. The comments come amid ongoing trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. aimed at ending the war.
 
UKRAINE: MISSION CONTROL
 
**Ukraine Launches ‘Mission Control’ to Centralize Drone Warfare **-
 
Ukraine has unveiled Mission Control, a digital command-and-control system integrating all drone operations nationwide into its existing DELTA battlefield network. The platform unifies mission planning, execution, and reporting, giving commanders real-time insight into effectiveness and failures. Officials say the system will transform fragmented, improvised drone warfare into a standardized, data-driven operation, with information feeding directly into Ukraine’s ePoints performance system. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said the initiative marks a shift to “managed, technological warfare.” Built with NATO-grade cybersecurity, Mission Control reportedly passed U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology standards and is housed entirely within Ukraine’s protected defense network.
 
RUSSIAN STRIKES INCREASE
 
**Russian Strikes Intensify as Ceasefire Talks Advance **-
 
Russia launched new air raids on Odesa and struck energy firm Naftogaz facilities in the Poltava region, marking the 19th attack on the company. Moscow claimed gains in Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions, while Kyiv said Russia fired more than 2,000 drones and 1,200 guided bombs in the past week. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said only a few issues remain in U.S.-brokered peace talks, adding that Donald Trump is key to securing a final deal and that Washington is ready to provide congressional-backed security guarantees. Meanwhile, India reportedly reduced Russian oil imports ahead of trade talks with Washington.
 
THE BATTLE FOR POKROVSK
 
**Russian forces pressuring Pokrovsk as 'last battles' rage** -
 
Ukrainian military officials say Russian forces are intensifying efforts around the embattled city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, seeking to complete a months-long campaign to seize the strategic rail hub as part of Moscow’s push to control the Donetsk region. Kyiv says it still holds parts of Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad, though Russian forces are exploiting superior manpower and air power. Analysts note Russia has made only limited territorial gains since 2023, despite heavy bombardment. Ukraine rejects Russian demands to cede remaining Donetsk territory, while Moscow insists territorial control is central to any U.S. brokered peace talks.
 
ESTONIAN INTEL
 
**Estonia says Russia planning military buildup to shift power in Europe **-
 
Russia is unlikely to launch a military attack on a NATO state in 2026 or 2027 but is rapidly rebuilding its forces to prepare for future confrontation, according to an annual assessment by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. The agency said Moscow is expanding ammunition production fast enough to sustain the war in Ukraine while stockpiling for future conflicts. Estonia warned that Russia aims to delay European rearmament and exploit engagement with the Trump administration to weaken sanctions. The report added that closer Russia–China cooperation could further undermine Western security interests.
 
EU INTELLIGENCE
 
**Von der Leyen softens plan for intelligence cell **-
 
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scaling back plans to centralize EU intelligence sharing following resistance from member states and clashes with foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, according to officials cited by POLITICO. A proposed Commission-led intelligence cell is now expected to function mainly as a security unit, leaving most intelligence coordination with INTCEN under the European External Action Service. The adjustment preserves Kallas’s authority and reflects member state reluctance to cede control over sensitive intelligence, even as the European Union seeks stronger coordination against Russian hybrid threats and amid strains in transatlantic intelligence ties.
 
GAZA
 
Gaza mission. Indonesia reportedly plans to deploy several thousand troops to Gaza in the coming weeks. The soldiers, the first members to arrive as part of the International Stabilization Force, will be stationed in southeastern Rafah. The exact date of their deployment has not been determined. Meanwhile, Indonesia has signed two letters of intent to acquire Italian-made M-346 Master trainer jets and Russian-made Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters. The country currently operates British-made BAE System Hawk 109/209 and Korean-made KAI T-50 aircraft in roles similar to those of the M-346.
 
THE PIJ
 
**Palestinian Islamic Jihad announces it will ‘never surrender its weapons’** -
 
“Mohammad Al-Hajj Musa”, spokesman for the Islamic Jihad movement: Weapons and resistance are the real guarantors for protecting the Palestinian people, and this movement refuses to surrender its weapons or accept any dictates in this regard. He added: Any discussion about weapons is a completely internal Palestinian issue, the weapons of resistance belong to the Palestinian people.
 
NATO ARCTIC MISSION
 
Eye on the Arctic. NATO reportedly plans to launch a mission within days designed to enhance Arctic surveillance and boost the alliance’s presence in the region. Operation Arctic Sentry will involve military exercises and air and sea patrols, including the use of drones. Notably, Russia’s Northern Fleet said on Monday that its Admiral Kasatonov frigate conducted firing exercises at a naval range in the Barents Sea.
 
RUSSIA
 
Plan B. Russia is urgently trying to replace Starlink with its own satellite internet service on the frontlines in Ukraine, adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Serhii Beskrestnov said after SpaceX blocked Moscow from using Starlink within Ukrainian territory.
 
According to Beskrestnov, Russia has access to several high-speed internet providers that it could employ.
 
Out of view. Iran is suspending public displays of new defense technology for security reasons, a spokesperson for its Defense Ministry said. The official also said artificial intelligence already plays a major role in Iran’s defense technology. The statement comes amid growing concerns about a potential U.S. strike on Iran.
 
TÜRKIYE
 
Ripple effect. Turkey could be pulled into a regional nuclear arms race if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned. According to the minister, other countries in the region couldn’t ignore Iran becoming a nuclear power and would be forced to reassess their positions on nuclear arms.
 
CUBA & CHINA
 
**Cuba Grounds Jet Fuel Supply as U.S. Oil Blockade Deepens **-
 
Cuban aviation officials have announced that jet fuel will be unavailable at nine airports, including Havana’s José Martí International, through March 11 as U.S. sanctions choke off fuel imports. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff order targeting countries supplying oil to Cuba has severed access from Venezuela and Mexico, prompting Canadian airlines like Air Canada and WestJet to suspend flights. The measures, part of Havana’s emergency rationing plan, follow nationwide power outages, curtailed public transport, and canceled cultural events. Economists warn the crisis could rival Cuba’s 1990s “Special Period,” threatening the tourism sector and deepening shortages of fuel, food, and medicine.
 
NICARAGUA & CUBA
 
**Amid U.S. Pressure, Nicaragua Blocks a Once-Popular Route from Cuba **-
 
Nicaragua has ended visa free entry for Cuban migrants, closing a key transit route long used to reach the United States and widely viewed as a revenue source for Managua. The decision, announced by Nicaragua’s migration authority, is seen by analysts as an effort by autocratic co-presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo to ease pressure from the Trump administration. Experts describe the move as symbolic and overdue, noting that Nicaragua had previously facilitated large scale migrant flows from Cuba and other countries for profit. Washington has imposed sanctions, visa restrictions, and trade penalties, while signaling a tougher stance toward Managua than under the previous administration.
 
INDIA
 
**Manipur: Security forces destroy IEDs along Indo-Myanmar border, arrest four insurgents** -
 
Indian law enforcers and security agencies destroyed two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in situ and arrested four insurgents linked to splinter insurgent outfits in multiple operations across Manipur on Saturday. Officials said on Sunday that security forces recovered mortars and two IEDs from the general area of Yangoubung along the Indo-Myanmar border near Border Pillars 72–73 under Moreh police station in Tengnoupal district. The explosives were later destroyed in situ by a bomb disposal team.
 
AFRICA: THE SAHEL
 
El Sagel: The first week of February 2026 witnessed intensified insurgent violence, persistent abductions, and sustained counter-insurgency operations across Nigeria and the wider Sahel. militant groups demonstrated continued adaptability, cross-border coordination, and operational resilience.
 
Niger: Nigerian Army troops intensified operations and successfully rescued six individuals abducted by suspected Boko Haram fighters. The operation disrupted terrorist leverage through kidnapping and signalled sustained operational reach and pressure on insurgent cells operating in the area. Rescue operations remain a key measure in reducing insurgents’ ability to intimidate communities and finance activities through ransom.
 
Reports also indicated a leadership change within Islamic State-West Africa Province (ISWAP), with a new commander appointed in the Timbuktu Triangle, signalling internal restructuring of extremist networks beyond Nigeria’s borders. February began with both daytime and nighttime attacks, illustrating multi-tier threats from insurgents, bandits, and organised criminal groups. Increasing air–ground synergy is exerting pressure on militant logistics, though insurgents continue exploiting remote terrain.
 
On Feb 4 in Niger (Fulani settlement) Armed attackers rustled approximately 200 sheep and injured herders, disrupting livelihoods and heightening fear among pastoral communities.
 
Despite peace and amnesty initiatives, a bandit attack in Faskari, Katsina State, killed more than 20 people, highlighting the limits of negotiated settlements.
 
On Feb 6, At least 36 Nigerien soldiers were killed near the Niger–Burkina Faso border in a coordinated attack linked to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), underscoring escalating cross-border militant threats.
 
AFGHANISTAN
 
**Afghan Child Is Seen Making Explosives Barrel **-
 
According to a video and a Dari-language tweet published by Independent Persian Afghanistan on January 26, 2026, the Afghan Taliban released a video showing an Afghan child issuing threats to U.S. President Donald Trump for seeking control of the Bagram Airbase. In the video, the child is shown preparing a yellow barrel associated with Taliban explosive and suicide attacks. The child says he does not go to school because he is making the barrel, prompting critics to accuse the Taliban of promoting a culture of war among children.
 
ISIS-K MAGAZINE
 
Issue 47 of ISIS-K-Linked English Language Web Magazine Released**-
 
On January 31, ISIS-K-linked al-Azaim Media released issue 47 of its web magazine, Voice of Khorasan. The main article condemned militant groups that claimed to fight for religious purposes and called themselves mujahideen, but promote nationhood, specific ethnic groups, or ethnic or national separatism. The article declared that concepts of nationhood are apostasy and that these groups improperly use religious justifications and slogans. Issue 47 also included an article on AI chatbots, building on the previous issue’s article, which discussed various AI platforms. The article provided guidance on using AI chatbots, noting that they can be useful for summarizing articles, creating educational campaigns, performing administrative tasks, providing coding support, translation, and serving as academic tutors. The author noted that users should exercise caution when using chatbots; that information from AI is not always 100% accurate; that users should not share personally identifying or other sensitive information; and that any inputs to AI chatbots could eventually be made public.
 
GZB INFOCUS: IRAN, NUKES & 9-11
 
The United States has entered indirect talks with Tehran over the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Geopolitically, Iran should not be a fundamental issue for the United States. Washington was involved in the Middle East throughout the Cold War, and when that conflict ended, the U.S. had an imperative to reduce its exposure in and tensions with the region. Yet the region remains unstable and the U.S. involved, so the question is why Washington ought to concern itself with Iran now.
 
The U.S invaded Iraq in 2003, two years after the 9/11 attacks. The stated reason for the war was the fear that Iraq was in the process of developing nuclear weapons – a fear compounded by the prospect of nukes falling into the hands of radical Islamists. The principle of mutual assured destruction had prevented a direct war between Washington and Moscow for more than a generation, but from the U.S. perspective, it was unclear whether MAD would apply to non-state actors whose ideology, at times, embraced martyrdom. This perception made the Iraqi nuclear program – real or not – something that could not be risked.
 
Iraq never had any nukes, of course, but the 9/11 attacks – and the fear of nuclear-armed extremists – remain deeply embedded in the American geopolitical psyche. U.S. intelligence failed to detect the plans laid by al-Qaida, and Americans were forced to confront an enemy that was willing to die to damage their country. We still experience the consequences of 9/11every time we go to an airport.
 
This goes a long way in explaining U.S. interest in Iran. The government in Tehran is theocratic; it has a complex system of stakeholders and decision-makers, but ultimate authority rests in the supreme leader. And though the brand of Islam it practices (Shiism) is markedly different than that of al-Qaida (Sunnism), Iran nonetheless is home to a variety of non-state actors, and has pursued a strategic policy of supporting and arming non-state actors in other countries, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi Shiite militias. Washington's concern is compounded by the fact that Iran is in the middle of a messy domestic transition and could become unstable, which means nuclear technology is an even greater threat.
 
There are currently nine nuclear powers in the world: the U.S., Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, Israel and North Korea. In each country, the principle of MAD holds true. Nuclear weapons have never been used in combat because to use them is to sign one’s own death warrant. Here again, the U.S. is concerned that this principle does not apply to Iran.
 
If that’s the case, it necessarily means that the U.S. policy of withdrawing or disengaging from the Eastern Hemisphere does not apply to Iran. The fundamental issue for the United States is not the future of Iran but the possibility that Iran would not be deterred by MAD from using nukes or giving them to a group that would be all too eager to use them.
 
Good strategy should always consider the worst-case scenario. In this case, it would be an Iranian nuclear weapon, loaded on a ship flying a false flag, sailing into an American harbor and being detonated.
 
The U.S. was profoundly traumatized by 9/11, after which intelligence was institutionalized to prevent another such attack. But 9/11 would be a mild blow compared to a nuclear assault.
 
This has brought the U.S. into negotiations with a country it would normally be indifferent to (and thus violates the U.S. strategy of disengagement). And it makes Iran’s nuclear program its greatest bargaining chip. The U.S. has bombed Iran’s nuclear development facilities but failed to destroy them. Any possibility of the nuclear program's revival is unacceptable to the U.S. As for Iran, a nuclear program gives it significant leverage, and so it will seek to extract what it wants most: a halt to attacks (particularly by Israel) and an end to international sanctions on its economy.
 
The U.S. has interests in the Middle East, but it has no interest in waging war there. From its perspective, Iran is a Middle Eastern problem, not a global one. Its nuclear program is the lone exception. This threat is the main driver for Washington’s obsession with Iran's nuclear program, its attacks on Iranian territory and other actions likely to be taken VERY SOON if Tehran does not capitulate. A fundamental U.S. interest is at stake here, as is a fundamental Iranian interest. If they do not reach some kind of settlement, it is in my mind likely that the U.S. will act militarily against Iran's nuclear facilities. But Iran will only concede on the nuclear issue if the U.S. agrees to reduce pressure. This statement may seem obvious, but given the details involved on both sides, it’s profoundly complex.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

—END REPORT