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Title: October 17, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 17 OCTOBER 2025

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

Key Takeaways:

• Sectarian Violence in Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters likely assassinated Iraqi Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani on October 14 with an explosive device in al Dhubat neighborhood, Tarmiyah district, Iraq.

• Houthi Leadership: The Houthis confirmed on October 16 that Israeli airstrikes killed Houthi Chief of General Staff Mohammad Abd al Karim al Ghamari. Ghamari is the most senior Houthi official who has been killed since 2004, according to a Yemeni analyst. The Houthis appointed former Houthi 5th Military Region commander Major General Yousuf Hassan al Madani to replace Ghamari.

• Iran Defense Strategy: Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser to the Supreme Defense Council Ali Shamkhani’s recent remarks on Iran’s missile doctrine and nuclear posture highlight an ongoing internal debate about the regime’s military strategies.

GLOBAL SITREP

TRUMP — PUTIN MEETING

President Donald Trump is redoubling his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, announcing a second meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin one day before sitting down with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House.

Trump’s announcement came shortly after finishing a call with Putin on Thursday. A date has not been set, but Trump said the meeting would take place in Budapest, Hungary, and suggested that it could happen in about two weeks.

“I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation,” Trump wrote on social media. The two leaders previously met in Alaska in August, which did not produce a diplomatic breakthrough, a source of frustration for the U.S. leader who had expected that his longstanding relationship with Putin could pave the way to resolving a conflict that began nearly four years ago.

VENEZUELA — I TOLD YOU SO!

Escalation. The Trump administration has authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela, The New York Times reported President Donald Trump confirmed on Wednesday, after the report was released, that the U.S. was “looking at land now” after targeting multiple vessels in the Caribbean suspected of carrying illicit goods. The authorization would allow the agency to carry out lethal missions in Venezuela and across the Caribbean, either independently or alongside U.S. military strikes. The U.S. military is reportedly developing plans for engagement in the country for Trump’s consideration.

(See GZB INFOCUS for more)

UKRAINIAN DRONES TO GERMANY

Ukraine's priorities. Germany has allocated a total of 400 million euros ($466 million) to buy drones for Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said following a meeting of the so-called Ramstein format of Ukraine allies. Also at the summit, Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal highlighted three areas in which the government in Kyiv is looking for support from its allies: $12 billion-$20 billion in funding next year to purchase U.S. weapons, over $4 billion for drone production, and long-range ammunition.

INDONESIA

Indonesian air force. Indonesia is set to acquire at least 42 Chinese J-10 fighter jets as part of its plans to modernize the military, Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin said Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa also confirmed that his ministry had approved a nearly $9 billion budget for the purchase of the aircraft. This would make Indonesia the second country to operate this model of jet after Pakistan.

GAZA PEACE COALITION

Peace in Gaza. Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Indonesia could be among the top countries to contribute to a stabilization force in Gaza, Politico reported Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered the military to prepare a plan to defeat Hamas if the war resumes. The minister’s office noted that if the group does not abide by all the terms of the peace plan, which include demilitarization, Israel would be compelled to continue fighting.

U.S., INDIA & RUSSIAN OIL

Concession? U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reassured him that New Delhi would stop buying Russian oil, after Washington earlier this year imposed additional tariffs on India over its willingness to do business with Moscow. In response, a spokesperson for India’s Foreign Ministry said New Delhi would continue to protect the interests of Indian consumers and that talks with the U.S. on deepening energy cooperation were ongoing.

RUSSIA & AFRICA

Russian support for Africa. Russia is ready to support African energy grid development and other related projects, Deputy Energy Minister Roman Marshavin said at the Russian Energy Week forum in Moscow. He discussed the so-called GOELRO plan, a continent-wide electrification initiative modeled after a Soviet industrialization program, aimed at increasing Africa’s power generation capacity nearly fivefold.

CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY

Meeting in Kyrgyzstan. The heads of the security councils of the Central Asian countries and India held security talks in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov also attended the meeting, which focused on the fight against terrorism and extremism, combating transnational crime and drug trafficking, and coordination on cybersecurity.

CHINA & RUSSIA

Chinese encroachment. The governor of Russia’s Primorsky region, Oleg Kozhemyako, warned that China was increasingly trying to portray the region as historical Chinese territory. He said that if Moscow doesn’t intervene with its own educational efforts, the Chinese narrative would become “dominant” in 10-15 years.

VENEZUELA

Key Takeaways:

• The military commander who oversees U.S. operations in Central and South America is stepping down. Two officials said he had raised concerns about the recent attacks on boats.

• U.S. aircraft, including B-52 bombers and Army helicopters, have been flying off the coast of Venezuela in an apparent show of force.

There were two remarkable parts to what President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office this week about Venezuela: what he said, and what he didn’t say.

The president confirmed a New York Times scoop, published a few hours earlier by my colleagues Julian Barnes and Tyler Pager, that he had secretly authorized the C.I.A. to conduct covert action inside the country, part of a U.S. campaign against Nicolás Maduro, the authoritarian leader who clings to power there.

That was a remarkable statement because presidents don’t acknowledge directives that allow spies to accomplish a secret mission. The whole idea of having a C.I.A. is to allow the United States to operate in the shadows and conduct “deniable” operations. The normal answer to questions about such authorizations, used by almost all of the presidents since World War II, is something along the lines of I don’t know what you are talking about, but if I did, I couldn’t comment.

But in this case, commenting may have been the point. Privately, Trump administration officials have said they want to drive Maduro from power. In that context, the warships massing off Venezuela’s Caribbean coast, the 10,000 troops poised nearby and the bombing of boats allegedly filled with “narcoterrorists” are efforts at psychological warfare. Trump hopes to scare Maduro into exile. Trump added to the pressure on Wednesday when he said the next step might be a land attack.

***Final Word: Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in late October in South Korea.

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